Matt Festa — OGILVIE

Matt Festa P Cleveland Guardians

Age 33 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9486vR 78

ERA3.32

FIP3.16

K%24.2%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%17.4%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2392.6

Whiff%

p7228.7%

p6324.6%

xwOBA vs

p630.299

FB+1.0 (53%)

SI (6%)

CT-0.9 (7%)

SL-1.3 (40%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	24	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	42	1	70	291	99	17	7	2%	1.7	26.2%	6.7%	19.5%	3.5%	3.23	3.65	—
2017	24	A+ RAW	Modesto Nuts	42	1	70	291	99	17	7	2%	1.7	34.0%	5.8%	28.2%	2.4%	3.23	2.30	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	1	57	248	71	14	6	2%	1.1	26.1%	6.3%	19.7%	3.7%	2.67	3.76	+0.5
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	1	57	248	71	14	6	2%	1.1	28.6%	5.6%	23.0%	2.4%	2.67	2.72	+1.3
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	53	229	54	25	8	0%	1.2	21.9%	11.2%	10.6%	3.6%	3.91	4.66	-0.1
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	53	229	54	25	8	0%	1.2	23.6%	10.9%	12.7%	3.5%	3.91	4.44	+0.1
2021	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	1	25	101	39	4	4	4%	1.1	31.7%	3.7%	28.1%	5.3%	2.49	3.78	—
2021	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	1	25	101	39	4	4	4%	1.1	38.6%	4.0%	34.7%	4.0%	2.49	2.55	—
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	61	243	75	20	10	0%	1.0	29.2%	8.2%	21.0%	4.7%	3.71	4.24	+0.2
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	61	243	75	20	10	0%	1.0	30.9%	8.2%	22.6%	4.1%	3.71	3.76	+0.6
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	43	171	41	26	3	0%	1.2	18.2%	9.8%	8.3%	1.5%	1.26	3.63	+0.5
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	43	171	41	26	3	0%	1.2	18.2%	9.8%	8.3%	1.5%	1.26	3.63	+0.5
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	43	171	41	26	3	0%	1.2	24.0%	15.2%	8.8%	1.8%	1.26	3.91	+0.3
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	64	268	72	20	4	0%	1.2	23.8%	7.0%	16.8%	1.6%	3.82	2.84	+1.3
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	64	268	72	20	4	0%	1.2	23.8%	7.0%	16.8%	1.6%	3.82	2.84	+1.3
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	64	268	72	20	4	0%	1.2	26.9%	7.5%	19.4%	1.5%	3.82	2.60	+1.5
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	72	0	69	288	76	20	4	0%	1.0	25.2%	6.7%	18.5%	1.4%	3.25	2.58	+1.6
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	72	0	69	288	76	20	4	0%	1.0	25.2%	6.7%	18.5%	1.4%	3.25	2.58	+1.6
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	72	0	69	288	76	20	4	0%	1.0	26.4%	6.9%	19.4%	1.4%	3.25	2.52	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			233	1	235	1001	249	82	28	0%	1.0	24.9%	8.2%	16.7%	2.8%	4.26	3.58	+2.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	62	0	63	272	67	19	6	0%	1.0	24.6%	7.0%	17.6%	2.2%	3.73	3.12	+1.1
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	62	0	63	272	67	19	6	0%	1.0	24.6%	7.0%	17.6%	2.2%	3.73	3.12	+1.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	MLB RAW	CLE	62	0	63	272	67	19	6	0%	1.0	24.6%	7.0%	17.6%	2.2%	3.73	3.12	+1.1
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	CLE	62	0	63	272	67	19	6	0%	1.0	24.6%	7.0%	17.6%	2.2%	3.73	3.12	+1.1
ROS	33	MLB MLE	CLE	5	0	5	22	5	1	0	0%	1.0	24.2%	6.8%	17.4%	2.3%	3.32	3.16	+0.1
ROS	33	MLB CTX	CLE	5	0	5	21	5	1	0	0%	1.0	24.2%	6.8%	17.4%	2.3%	3.32	3.16	+0.1
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	68	294	72	20	6	—	—	24.6%	7.0%	17.6%	2.2%	3.70	3.12	+1.3
FULL	33	MLB A+C	CLE	—	—	68	286	72	20	6	—	—	25.2%	7.1%	18.1%	2.3%	3.70	3.12	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	CLE	53	0	56	236	55	17	6	0%	1.1	23.2%	7.3%	15.9%	2.5%	3.79	3.84	+0.5
2028	35	MLB MLE	CLE	48	0	50	212	47	17	6	0%	1.0	22.2%	7.8%	14.4%	2.9%	4.02	4.18	+0.2
2029	36	MLB MLE	CLE	42	0	44	188	40	16	6	0%	1.1	21.2%	8.4%	12.8%	3.3%	4.34	4.55	0.0
2027	34	MLB CTX	CLE	50	0	53	224	52	16	6	0%	1.1	23.2%	7.3%	15.9%	2.5%	3.79	3.84	+0.5
2028	35	MLB CTX	CLE	44	0	46	194	43	15	6	0%	1.0	22.2%	7.8%	14.4%	2.9%	4.02	4.18	+0.2
2029	36	MLB CTX	CLE	34	0	36	152	32	13	5	0%	1.1	21.2%	8.4%	12.8%	3.3%	4.34	4.55	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		367	1	375	1595	382	128	45	0%	1.0	23.9%	8.0%	15.9%	2.8%	4.16	3.64	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		196	1	200	850	204	68	24	0%	1.0	23.9%	8.0%	15.9%	2.8%	4.16	3.64	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		441	3	505	2111	529	158	61	1%	1.1	25.0%	7.5%	17.5%	2.9%	3.23	3.53	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		175	1	200	837	209	63	24	1%	1.1	25.0%	7.5%	17.5%	2.9%	3.23	3.53	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Festa (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.58	23.5%	6.6%	2.3%	—	4.16	22.3%	14.5%	151	+0.58	—	—	—
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	82
Jim Johnson R 2016 · 2.56 FIP	33	SU	2.56	25.6%	7.5%	1.2%	.309	4.20	20.1%	11.9%	120	+1.64	2.56	251	82
Tommy Hunter R 2018 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	18.9%	5.2%	2.1%	.296	2.78	24.5%	18.6%	25	-0.52	2.78	316	80
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	78
David Hernandez R 2018 · 2.94 FIP	33	SU	2.94	25.6%	6.3%	2.2%	.240	3.72	26.8%	18.2%	43	+0.78	2.60	268	78
Chad Gaudin R 2016 · 2.67 FIP	33	SU	2.67	22.8%	6.8%	1.2%	.325	3.15	21.8%	13.9%	58	+0.48	2.02	102	78
Spencer Patton R 2021 · 3.04 FIP	33	SU	3.04	27.9%	8.7%	2.2%	.305	5.01	20.8%	10.0%	88	+1.97	2.79	239	77
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	76
Daniel Bard R 2020 · 2.82 FIP	35	SU	2.82	25.5%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	3.63	25.3%	12.0%	175	+0.81	2.56	200	76
Jason Urquidez R 2016 · 2.39 FIP	33	SU	2.39	22.6%	5.3%	1.0%	.328	1.25	28.2%	24.0%	46	-1.14	1.25	123	75
Ryan Madson R 2015 · 2.99 FIP	34	SU	2.99	23.4%	5.2%	2.2%	.244	2.96	23.9%	18.7%	176	-0.03	1.42	240	75
Rafael Martín R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	20.4%	5.1%	2.5%	.305	4.71	22.5%	16.5%	47	+1.31	2.94	227	74
Cory Gearrin R 2019 · 3.78 FIP	33	SU	3.78	19.5%	10.0%	1.9%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	272	74
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	74
Miguel Socolovich R 2019 · 3.55 FIP	33	SU	3.55	18.4%	4.7%	2.6%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	283	74
Pat Neshek R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	22.9%	4.9%	3.7%	.268	2.48	24.6%	21.9%	134	-1.34	1.57	206	74
Mark Melancon R 2018 · 3.15 FIP	33	SU	3.15	17.8%	6.9%	1.2%	.357	2.82	21.9%	15.5%	155	-0.33	2.24	428	74
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	73
Carlos Torres R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	23.0%	8.0%	2.2%	.252	3.99	18.9%	10.0%	186	+0.59	2.89	326	73
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	53	22.6%	7.4%	1.04	3.95
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97