Matt Festa

P Cleveland Guardians

Age 34 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	31	MIX2 levels	52	64	3.82	2.60	26.9%	7.5%	1.5	K 24.4% · BB 7.0% · FIP 2.79
2025	32	MIX2 levels	72	69	3.25	2.52	26.4%	6.9%	1.7	K 25.4% · BB 6.7% · FIP 2.57
2026	33	MLBCLE	66	67	3.78	3.34	23.9%	7.3%	1.0
2027PROJ	34	MLBCLE	50	53	3.81	3.75	23.3%	6.9%	0.5
2028PROJ95% MLB	35	MLBCLE	32	34	3.98	4.09	22.3%	7.4%	0.2
2029PROJ86% MLB	36	MLBCLE	18	19	4.27	4.46	21.3%	8.0%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%59

xwOBA vs57

FB Velo25

Form2.38 ERA (proj 3.81) · K 21.5% (proj 23.3%) · BB 8.6% (proj 6.9%) ▼ last 90d · 23 IP through Oct 27

CompsAkinori Otsuka (age 34) · Jean Machi (age 34) · Zack Segovia (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10395vR 87

ERA3.81

FIP3.75

K%23.3%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%16.4%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2592.7

Whiff%

p6527.6%

p5923.9%

xwOBA vs

p570.305

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	24	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	42	1	70	291	99	17	7	2%	1.7	26.2%	6.7%	19.5%	3.5%	3.23	3.65	—
2017	24	A+ RAW	Modesto Nuts	42	1	70	291	99	17	7	2%	1.7	34.0%	5.8%	28.2%	2.4%	3.23	2.30	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	1	57	248	71	14	6	2%	1.1	26.1%	6.3%	19.7%	3.7%	2.67	3.76	+0.5
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	1	57	248	71	14	6	2%	1.1	28.6%	5.6%	23.0%	2.4%	2.67	2.72	+1.3
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	53	229	54	25	8	0%	1.2	21.9%	11.2%	10.6%	3.6%	3.91	4.66	-0.1
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	53	229	54	25	8	0%	1.2	23.6%	10.9%	12.7%	3.5%	3.91	4.44	+0.1
2021	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	1	25	101	39	4	4	4%	1.1	31.7%	3.7%	28.1%	5.3%	2.49	3.78	—
2021	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	1	25	101	39	4	4	4%	1.1	38.6%	4.0%	34.7%	4.0%	2.49	2.55	—
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	61	243	75	20	10	0%	1.0	29.2%	8.2%	21.0%	4.7%	3.71	4.24	+0.2
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	61	243	75	20	10	0%	1.0	30.9%	8.2%	22.6%	4.1%	3.71	3.76	+0.6
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	43	171	41	26	3	0%	1.2	18.8%	9.8%	9.0%	1.5%	1.26	3.57	+0.5
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	43	171	41	26	3	0%	1.2	24.0%	15.2%	8.8%	1.8%	1.26	3.91	+0.3
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	64	268	72	20	4	0%	1.2	24.4%	7.0%	17.4%	1.6%	3.82	2.79	+1.3
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	64	268	72	20	4	0%	1.2	24.4%	7.0%	17.4%	1.6%	3.82	2.79	+1.3
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	64	268	72	20	4	0%	1.2	26.9%	7.5%	19.4%	1.5%	3.82	2.60	+1.5
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	72	0	69	288	76	20	4	0%	1.0	25.4%	6.7%	18.7%	1.4%	3.25	2.57	+1.6
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	72	0	69	288	76	20	4	0%	1.0	25.4%	6.7%	18.7%	1.4%	3.25	2.57	+1.6
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	72	0	69	288	76	20	4	0%	1.0	26.4%	6.9%	19.4%	1.4%	3.25	2.52	+1.7
2026	33	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	66	0	67	289	69	21	7	0%	1.0	23.9%	7.3%	16.6%	2.4%	3.78	3.34	+1.0
2026	33	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	66	0	67	289	69	21	7	0%	1.0	23.9%	7.3%	16.6%	2.4%	3.78	3.34	+1.0
2026	33	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	66	0	67	289	69	21	7	0%	1.0	23.9%	7.3%	16.6%	2.4%	3.78	3.34	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			237	1	239	1018	251	84	29	0%	1.0	24.7%	8.3%	16.4%	2.8%	4.26	3.63	+2.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	CLE	50	0	53	224	52	15	6	0%	1.1	23.3%	6.9%	16.4%	2.5%	3.81	3.75	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	CLE	35	0	36	153	34	11	4	0%	1.0	22.3%	7.4%	14.9%	2.8%	3.98	4.09	+0.2
2029	36	MLB MLE	CLE	21	0	22	94	20	8	3	0%	1.1	21.3%	8.0%	13.3%	3.2%	4.27	4.46	+0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	CLE	32	0	34	144	32	11	4	0%	1.1	22.3%	7.4%	14.9%	2.8%	3.98	4.09	+0.2
2029	36	MLB CTX	CLE	18	0	19	80	17	6	3	0%	1.1	21.3%	8.0%	13.3%	3.2%	4.27	4.46	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		288	1	292	1245	301	101	36	0%	1.0	24.2%	8.1%	16.0%	2.9%	4.23	3.67	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		197	1	200	851	206	69	25	0%	1.0	24.2%	8.1%	16.0%	2.9%	4.23	3.67	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		445	3	509	2128	534	160	62	1%	1.1	25.1%	7.5%	17.5%	2.9%	3.24	3.54	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		175	1	200	837	210	63	24	1%	1.1	25.1%	7.5%	17.5%	2.9%	3.24	3.54	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 15 IPFIP 1.81 → 2.04 (+0.24)K% 32.3% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.26%	—	×0.860	27.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.29%	—	×0.900	10.16%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.913	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 1.81 → 2.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARound Rock Express · 40 IPFIP 2.32 → 2.68 (+0.36)K% 28.6% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.860	24.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.74%	—	×0.900	6.96%
HR / BF /BF	1.19%	÷0.928	×1.100	1.41%

Result: FIP 2.32 → 2.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAATacoma Rainiers · 34 IPFIP 3.50 → 3.57 (+0.08)K% 21.9% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.88%	—	×0.860	18.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.94%	—	×0.900	9.84%
HR / BF /BF	1.56%	÷1.157	×1.100	1.49%

Result: FIP 3.50 → 3.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAATacoma Rainiers · 7 IPFIP 0.29 → 0.80 (+0.52)K% 45.8% → 40.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	45.83%	—	×0.880	40.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.050	8.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.144	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 129).

Result: FIP 0.29 → 0.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAATacoma Rainiers · 21 IPFIP 3.05 → 3.78 (+0.73)K% 36.0% → 31.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.05%	—	×0.880	31.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.49%	—	×1.050	3.66%
HR / BF /BF	4.65%	÷0.970	×1.100	5.28%

Result: FIP 3.05 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAATacoma Rainiers · 31 IPFIP 3.59 → 3.99 (+0.39)K% 25.8% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.78%	—	×0.880	22.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.94%	—	×1.050	11.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.34%	÷1.049	×1.100	2.46%

Result: FIP 3.59 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAArkansas Travelers · 49 IPFIP 2.69 → 3.76 (+1.06)K% 32.2% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.21%	—	×0.810	26.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.77%	—	×1.100	6.35%
HR / BF /BF	2.88%	÷0.925	×1.200	3.74%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.69 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Modesto Nuts · 70 IPFIP 2.29 → 3.65 (+1.36)K% 34.0% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.02%	—	×0.770	26.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.84%	—	×1.150	6.72%
HR / BF /BF	2.41%	÷0.866	×1.250	3.47%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP 2.29 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Festa (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.75	23.3%	6.9%	2.5%	—	4.23	21.9%	14.3%	59	+0.48	—	—	—
Akinori Otsuka R 2006 · 2.70 FIP	34	SU	2.70	20.3%	4.7%	1.3%	.292	2.39	17.6%	11.5%	32	-0.31	2.39	232	77
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	76
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	73
Brendan Donnelly R 2005 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	19.6%	5.9%	3.3%	.264	4.02	17.6%	8.5%	98	-0.00	2.23	385	73
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2002 · 2.76 FIP	34	SU	2.76	29.3%	6.4%	2.4%	.247	3.30	19.3%	10.6%	33	+0.54	2.76	223	72
Rafael Martín R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	20.4%	5.1%	2.5%	.305	4.71	22.5%	16.5%	47	+1.31	2.94	227	72
Jay Jackson R 2022 · 2.98 FIP	34	SU	2.98	27.5%	5.3%	2.8%	.327	4.83	26.2%	20.2%	85	+1.85	2.36	261	70
Neil Wagner R 2017 · 3.11 FIP	33	SU	3.11	20.7%	8.6%	1.2%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	135	70
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	191	68
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	67
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	66
Jumbo Diaz R 2018 · 2.80 FIP	34	SU	2.80	23.2%	10.4%	0.6%	.296	2.98	25.0%	17.3%	56	+0.18	2.80	319	66
Tony Pena Jr. R 2015 · 2.80 FIP	34	SU	2.80	18.8%	2.7%	1.7%	.294	3.02	18.7%	14.4%	82	+0.22	2.80	128	65
Blake Parker R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	34	SU	4.65	25.5%	8.6%	4.8%	.258	4.26	24.9%	15.4%	87	-0.39	2.52	406	65
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	65
Tony Barnette R 2018 · 2.61 FIP	34	SU	2.61	25.0%	4.8%	1.8%	.239	—	—	—	—	—	2.61	144	65
Greg Burke R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	22.1%	7.3%	2.7%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	64
Ryan Brasier R 2022 · 3.55 FIP	34	SU	3.55	24.3%	4.6%	3.5%	.331	2.95	22.3%	16.1%	114	-0.60	2.31	426	64
Anthony Telford R 2000 · 3.87 FIP	34	SU	3.87	20.6%	6.7%	3.0%	.287	4.54	16.2%	5.1%	24	+0.67	3.16	441	64
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	34	SW	4.07	23.7%	9.9%	3.1%	.253	5.11	25.0%	13.8%	32	+1.04	3.34	335	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	44	24.0%	8.2%	1.09	4.16
Charlie Furbush ('15)	1.3	52	24.5%	8.1%	1.04	3.97
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
David Carpenter ('19)	1.1	43	23.5%	8.4%	0.92	3.69
Tony Fossas ('88-'99, 2 WAR*)	2.1	42	21.9%*	9.3%*	0.99*	3.88*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Carlos Diaz ('82-'86, 2 WAR*)	1.3	52	25.1%*	8.7%*	0.91*	3.84*