Matt Festa
P
Cleveland Guardians
Age 33
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
MLB
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 23 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10696vR 87
ERA3.58
FIP3.45
K%23.2%
BB%7.0%
K-BB%16.2%
ROS IP23
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1892.2
Whiff%
p5626.3%
K%
p5222.5%
xwOBA vs
p360.328
FB+1.0 (49%)
SI (7%)
CT-0.9 (10%)
SL-1.3 (42%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | 42 | 1 | 70 | 291 | 99 | 17 | 7 | 2% | 1.7 | 26.2% | 6.7% | 19.5% | 4.1% | 3.23 | 4.00 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | 42 | 1 | 70 | 291 | 99 | 17 | 7 | 2% | 1.7 | 34.0% | 5.8% | 28.2% | 2.4% | 3.23 | 2.30 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 1 | 57 | 248 | 71 | 14 | 6 | 2% | 1.1 | 26.1% | 6.3% | 19.7% | 4.1% | 2.67 | 3.94 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 1 | 57 | 248 | 71 | 14 | 6 | 2% | 1.1 | 28.6% | 5.6% | 23.0% | 2.4% | 2.67 | 2.72 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 53 | 229 | 54 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.9% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 3.91 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 53 | 229 | 54 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.6% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 3.91 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 1 | 25 | 101 | 39 | 4 | 4 | 4% | 1.1 | 31.7% | 3.7% | 28.1% | 5.4% | 2.49 | 3.87 | — |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 1 | 25 | 101 | 39 | 4 | 4 | 4% | 1.1 | 38.6% | 4.0% | 34.7% | 4.0% | 2.49 | 2.55 | — |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 61 | 243 | 75 | 20 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.2% | 8.2% | 21.0% | 4.8% | 3.71 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 61 | 243 | 75 | 20 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.9% | 8.2% | 22.6% | 4.1% | 3.71 | 3.76 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 43 | 171 | 41 | 26 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 1.3% | 1.26 | 3.65 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 43 | 171 | 41 | 26 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.0% | 15.2% | 8.8% | 1.8% | 1.26 | 3.91 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 64 | 268 | 72 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.7% | 7.7% | 17.0% | 1.7% | 3.82 | 2.92 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 64 | 268 | 72 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.9% | 7.5% | 19.4% | 1.5% | 3.82 | 2.60 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 72 | 0 | 69 | 288 | 76 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.6% | 7.1% | 18.5% | 1.4% | 3.25 | 2.60 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 72 | 0 | 69 | 288 | 76 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.4% | 6.9% | 19.4% | 1.4% | 3.25 | 2.52 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 40 | 0 | 38 | 169 | 38 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 7.1% | 15.4% | 3.6% | 3.99 | 4.05 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 0 | 23 | 98 | 23 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 7.0% | 16.2% | 2.6% | 3.58 | 3.45 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 23 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 7.0% | 16.2% | 2.6% | 3.58 | 3.45 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 33 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 62 | 267 | 61 | 19 | 9 | — | — | 22.8% | 7.1% | 15.7% | 3.2% | 3.84 | 3.82 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 33 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 62 | 260 | 61 | 19 | 9 | — | — | 23.4% | 7.3% | 16.1% | 3.3% | 3.84 | 3.85 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 53 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 7.5% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 4.06 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 48 | 0 | 50 | 212 | 46 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 8.1% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 4.31 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 42 | 0 | 44 | 188 | 38 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 4.63 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 50 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 7.5% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 4.06 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 42 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 8.1% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 4.31 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 31 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 4.63 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 362 | 1 | 369 | 1568 | 366 | 128 | 49 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 8.1% | 15.2% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 3.87 | +6.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 196 | 1 | 200 | 850 | 198 | 69 | 27 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 8.1% | 15.2% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 3.87 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 419 | 3 | 480 | 2008 | 505 | 157 | 64 | 1% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 7.8% | 17.3% | 3.2% | 3.22 | 3.73 | +9.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 174 | 1 | 200 | 836 | 210 | 65 | 27 | 1% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 7.8% | 17.3% | 3.2% | 3.22 | 3.73 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Festa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.61 | 23.8% | 7.0% | 2.3% | — | 4.45 | 21.6% | 13.5% | 151 | +0.84 | — | — | — |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.58 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .335 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -0.95 | 2.63 | 144 | 80 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2025 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.34 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.82 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.52 | 2.82 | 316 | 80 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 78 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 2.51 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.51 | 25.6% | 7.5% | 1.1% | .309 | 4.25 | 20.1% | 11.9% | 120 | +1.74 | 2.51 | 251 | 77 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.41 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.36 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +0.95 | 3.41 | 144 | 77 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.77 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 272 | 77 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2026 · 2.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.66 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% | .325 | 3.46 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 58 | +0.80 | 2.02 | 102 | 77 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.97 | 25.6% | 6.3% | 2.2% | .240 | 3.77 | 26.8% | 18.2% | 43 | +0.80 | 2.56 | 268 | 76 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.52 | 27.3% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 316 | 76 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.09 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .305 | 5.10 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.01 | 2.74 | 239 | 76 |
| Mark Melancon R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.15 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 1.2% | .357 | 2.85 | 21.9% | 15.5% | 155 | -0.30 | 2.24 | 428 | 75 |
| Rafael Martín R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.43 | 20.4% | 5.1% | 2.6% | .305 | 4.60 | 22.5% | 16.5% | 47 | +1.17 | 2.85 | 227 | 75 |
| Pat Neshek R 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.65 | 22.9% | 4.9% | 3.4% | .268 | 2.40 | 24.6% | 21.9% | 134 | -1.25 | 1.48 | 206 | 75 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.59 | 18.4% | 4.7% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.60 | 283 | 74 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 115 | 74 |
| Daniel Bard R 2028 · 2.70 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.70 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.5% | .290 | 3.50 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.80 | 2.48 | 200 | 74 |
| Ryan Madson R 2027 · 2.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.97 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | .244 | 2.98 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.01 | 1.42 | 240 | 73 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 73 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2024 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 73 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 53 | 22.2% | 7.7% | 1.15 | 4.15 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |