Matt Festa
P
Cleveland Guardians
+0.8
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.8 · 2026
ERA3.98
FIP3.56
xFIP4.55
SIERA3.76
K%24.5%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%16.9%
IP58
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p1091.3
Whiff%
p4825.0%
K%
p3520.0%
xwOBA vs
p580.304
FB+1.0 (46%)
SI (7%)
CT-0.9 (6%)
SL-1.3 (48%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | 42 | 1 | 70 | 291 | 99 | 17 | 7 | 26.2% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 3.23 | 3.65 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 52 | 1 | 57 | 248 | 71 | 14 | 6 | 26.1% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 2.67 | 3.76 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 43 | 0 | 53 | 229 | 54 | 25 | 8 | 21.9% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 3.91 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 23 | 1 | 25 | 101 | 39 | 4 | 4 | 31.7% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 2.49 | 3.79 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 59 | 0 | 61 | 243 | 75 | 20 | 10 | 29.2% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 3.71 | 4.15 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 36 | 0 | 43 | 171 | 41 | 26 | 3 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 1.5% | 1.26 | 3.77 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 52 | 0 | 64 | 268 | 72 | 20 | 4 | 24.7% | 7.7% | 1.6% | 3.82 | 2.87 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 72 | 0 | 69 | 288 | 76 | 20 | 4 | 25.6% | 7.1% | 1.3% | 3.25 | 2.56 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 7 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | 7.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | CLE | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 48 | 16 | 5 | 23.3% | 7.7% | 2.3% | 3.91 | 3.74 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 58 | 247 | 56 | 17 | 7 | 22.6% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 3.16 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 51 | 17 | 6 | 21.9% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 3.98 | 3.97 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 46 | 16 | 6 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 4.06 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 42 | 16 | 6 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 37 | MLB | CLE | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 37 | 15 | 6 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 38 | MLB | CLE | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 18.8% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 386 | 3 | 451 | 1880 | 475 | 146 | 57 | 25.3% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 3.23 | 3.61 | +8.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 171 | 1 | 200 | 834 | 211 | 65 | 25 | 25.3% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 3.23 | 3.61 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Festa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.74 | 23.3% | 7.7% | 2.3% | — | 4.12 | 21.2% | 13.7% | 155 | +0.38 | — | — | — |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.82 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 272 | 83 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2025 · 3.29 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.29 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.73 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.56 | 2.73 | 316 | 83 |
| Mark Melancon R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.15 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 1.2% | .357 | 2.80 | 21.9% | 15.5% | 155 | -0.35 | 2.22 | 428 | 79 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.61 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .335 | 2.56 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -1.05 | 2.56 | 144 | 78 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.82 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.34 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.48 | 3.21 | 225 | 78 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2025 · 3.55 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.55 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .273 | 6.40 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.85 | 3.55 | 155 | 77 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 77 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 76 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 75 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.37 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .312 | 4.52 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +1.15 | 3.37 | 144 | 75 |
| Rafael Martín R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.40 | 20.4% | 5.1% | 2.5% | .305 | 4.70 | 22.5% | 16.5% | 47 | +1.30 | 2.89 | 227 | 75 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2024 · 4.49 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.49 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 149 | 74 |
| Oscar Villarreal R 2026 · 2.53 FIP | 33 | SW | 2.53 | 17.7% | 5.3% | 0.5% | .275 | 4.15 | 13.4% | 5.5% | 77 | +1.62 | 2.53 | 135 | 74 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.57 | 18.4% | 4.7% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 283 | 74 |
| Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 73 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 73 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 125 | 73 |
| Hector Navarro R 2028 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 73 |
| Fernando Salas R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.97 | 17.6% | 5.3% | 3.1% | .278 | 4.19 | 20.8% | 15.5% | 52 | +0.22 | 2.65 | 288 | 73 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 73 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2018
Service 2.890 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.8 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.6 | $2M | +$0.8M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $3M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $7M | $10M | +$3M | ||