D.J. McCarty — OGILVIE

D.J. McCarty P Hub City Spartanburgers

+0.4 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 145 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.6 · 2030

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.0%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%9.8%

IP88

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.6peak

2030

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Rangers	16	2	27	144	36	26	5	17.0%	22.6%	4.6%	7.76	7.07	-0.6
2022	19	A	Down East Wood Ducks	12	11	48	229	53	26	1	15.8%	13.7%	0.6%	5.44	3.84	+0.6
2023	20	A	Down East Wood Ducks	23	12	74	311	86	27	1	20.5%	10.2%	0.4%	3.05	2.89	+1.8
2024	21	A+	Hickory Crawdads	21	19	91	410	110	34	11	20.7%	9.5%	3.3%	4.43	4.39	+0.9
2025	22	A+	Hub City Spartanburgers	23	17	88	410	98	52	4	18.4%	14.6%	1.0%	4.83	3.93	+1.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	A+	Hub City Spartanburgers	1	1	3	14	2	3	0	—	—	—	5.40	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	TEX	16	16	88	370	78	42	9	21.0%	11.3%	2.5%	4.52	4.52	+0.7
2026 Total	23	MLB	TEX	—	—	91	384	80	45	9	20.8%	11.6%	2.4%	4.55	4.35	+0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	TEX	19	19	106	447	97	46	11	21.7%	10.3%	2.5%	4.40	4.35	+1.1
2028	25	MLB	TEX	22	22	119	503	111	49	13	22.1%	9.7%	2.6%	4.30	4.25	+1.4
2029	26	MLB	TEX	23	23	126	533	119	51	14	22.3%	9.5%	2.6%	4.25	4.22	+1.5
2030	27	MLB	TEX	24	24	129	546	122	52	14	22.3%	9.5%	2.6%	4.24	4.23	+1.6
2031	28	MLB	TEX	24	24	129	546	122	52	14	22.3%	9.6%	2.6%	4.25	4.26	+1.5
2032	29	MLB	TEX	23	23	126	534	118	51	14	22.1%	9.6%	2.7%	4.28	4.30	+1.4
2033	30	MLB	TEX	22	22	123	518	114	50	14	21.9%	9.7%	2.7%	4.33	4.37	+1.3
2034	31	MLB	TEX	22	22	118	500	108	49	14	21.7%	9.8%	2.8%	4.40	4.44	+1.2
2035	32	MLB	TEX	21	21	114	480	103	48	14	21.4%	10.0%	2.9%	4.48	4.53	+1.0
2036	33	MLB	TEX	20	20	109	459	97	47	14	21.1%	10.2%	3.0%	4.57	4.63	+0.8
2037	34	MLB	TEX	19	19	103	436	90	45	13	20.8%	10.4%	3.1%	4.67	4.74	+0.7
2038	35	MLB	TEX	18	18	97	411	84	44	13	20.4%	10.6%	3.2%	4.78	4.86	+0.5
2039	36	MLB	TEX	17	17	91	384	77	42	13	19.9%	10.9%	3.3%	4.91	4.99	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			96	62	331	1518	287	198	27	18.9%	13.0%	1.8%	4.65	4.13	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—			58	38	200	918	174	120	16	18.9%	13.0%	1.8%	4.65	4.13	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
D.J. McCarty (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	21.0%	11.3%	2.5%	—	4.27	22.0%	12.3%	351	-0.25	—	—	—
Corey Black R 2026 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP-	4.18	22.1%	13.9%	2.1%	.310	3.55	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.55	139	94
Jimmy Endersby R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP-	4.24	20.9%	14.1%	2.0%	.310	5.78	16.4%	3.7%	225	+1.54	2.86	357	93
Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP-	4.72	20.2%	12.2%	3.3%	.269	4.89	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.28	448	93
Nolan DeVos R 2025 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.82	12.3%	-1.5%	12	+1.65	4.17	110	92
Kyle Bradish R 2025 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.87	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.68	2.16	615	92
Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP-	4.78	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.31	14.0%	1.0%	106	+0.53	3.85	291	92
Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	91
Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	91
Zach McCambley R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.4%	13.6%	3.3%	.277	3.30	25.0%	12.6%	123	-1.69	2.58	314	91
Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.77	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.59	1.92	778	91
Levi Stoudt R 2026 · 4.60 FIP	23	SP-	4.60	19.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.257	5.68	16.1%	5.2%	289	+1.08	4.35	395	90
CJ Van Eyk R 2025 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	21.8%	12.7%	3.6%	.302	4.62	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.21	2.74	347	90
Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP-	4.06	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.21	19.1%	12.1%	101	+0.15	4.06	194	90
Brett Daniels R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	18.5%	12.1%	1.6%	.266	4.47	21.4%	7.9%	152	+0.52	3.95	270	90
Max Bain R 2026 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP-	5.17	20.5%	15.2%	3.4%	.291	6.72	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.55	5.17	174	89
Luke Russo R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	3.92	21.5%	10.2%	38	+0.20	3.72	139	89
Jake Christianson R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP-	3.99	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.73	3.99	188	88
Dean Deetz R 2026 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP-	4.33	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.74	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	88
Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.78	18.8%	6.8%	146	+0.51	4.27	238	88
Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	21.0%	10.1%	2.0%	.285	5.74	19.4%	9.6%	160	+2.02	3.72	256	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.6	$14M	+$14M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.3	$13M	+$11M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.2	$12M	+$9M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.0	$10M	+$7M
Totals		$11M		$77M	+$66M