D.J. McCarty — OGILVIE

D.J. McCarty P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 145 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION92 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.07

FIP5.07

K%18.8%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%4.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 97 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	16	2	27	144	36	26	5	12%	1.7	17.0%	22.6%	-5.6%	4.8%	7.76	7.15	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	16	2	27	144	36	26	5	12%	1.7	25.0%	18.1%	6.9%	3.5%	7.76	5.76	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	48	229	53	26	1	92%	4.0	15.8%	13.7%	2.1%	0.6%	5.44	3.84	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	11	48	229	53	26	1	92%	4.0	23.1%	11.4%	11.8%	0.4%	5.44	2.79	—
2023	20	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	23	12	74	311	86	27	1	52%	3.2	20.5%	10.2%	10.2%	0.4%	3.05	2.88	—
2023	20	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	23	12	74	311	86	27	1	52%	3.2	20.5%	10.2%	10.2%	0.4%	3.05	2.88	—
2023	20	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	23	12	74	311	86	27	1	52%	3.2	27.7%	8.7%	19.0%	0.3%	3.05	2.04	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	21	19	91	410	110	34	11	90%	4.3	20.7%	9.5%	11.1%	3.3%	4.43	4.38	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	21	19	91	410	110	34	11	90%	4.3	20.7%	9.5%	11.1%	3.3%	4.43	4.38	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	21	19	91	410	110	34	11	90%	4.3	26.8%	8.3%	18.5%	2.7%	4.43	3.37	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	23	17	88	410	98	52	4	74%	3.8	18.4%	14.6%	3.8%	1.0%	4.83	3.94	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	23	17	88	410	98	52	4	74%	3.8	18.4%	14.6%	3.8%	1.0%	4.83	3.94	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Hub City Spartanburgers	23	17	88	410	98	52	4	74%	3.8	23.9%	12.7%	11.2%	1.0%	4.83	3.24	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	23	19	92	431	107	51	16	83%	4.0	19.4%	13.4%	6.0%	4.6%	5.77	5.69	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	23	19	92	431	107	51	16	83%	4.0	19.4%	13.4%	6.0%	4.6%	5.77	5.69	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	TEX	15	13	64	289	78	31	14	87%	4.3	27.0%	10.7%	16.3%	4.8%	5.46	4.84	—
2026	23	AA RAW	TEX	8	6	28	142	29	20	2	75%	3.5	20.4%	14.1%	6.3%	1.4%	6.51	3.93	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	TEX	1	1	5	22	4	3	1	100%	5.2	18.8%	14.1%	4.7%	2.5%	5.07	5.07	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	97	453	111	54	17	—	—	24.5%	11.9%	12.6%	3.7%	5.73	5.66	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	92	390	77	49	10	100%	5.4	19.7%	12.6%	7.1%	2.6%	4.88	4.81	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	94	395	80	46	10	100%	5.8	20.2%	11.7%	8.5%	2.6%	4.73	4.66	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	94	395	81	45	10	100%	5.8	20.5%	11.5%	9.1%	2.6%	4.66	4.62	+0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	TEX	15	15	92	389	80	45	10	100%	6.1	20.6%	11.5%	9.1%	2.7%	4.65	4.65	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	TEX	15	15	89	377	77	44	10	100%	6.0	20.4%	11.6%	8.8%	2.8%	4.70	4.73	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	85	361	73	43	10	100%	6.1	20.2%	11.8%	8.4%	2.9%	4.80	4.86	+0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	80	339	67	41	11	100%	6.2	19.9%	12.1%	7.7%	3.1%	4.95	5.04	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	TEX	7	7	40	169	33	21	5	100%	5.7	19.7%	12.6%	7.1%	2.7%	4.99	4.92	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	TEX	11	11	62	262	53	31	7	100%	5.6	20.2%	11.7%	8.5%	2.8%	4.84	4.77	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	74	312	64	36	9	100%	6.2	20.5%	11.5%	9.1%	2.8%	4.77	4.73	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	TEX	13	13	79	334	69	38	10	100%	6.1	20.6%	11.5%	9.1%	2.9%	4.76	4.76	+0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	TEX	13	13	80	338	69	39	10	100%	6.2	20.4%	11.6%	8.8%	3.0%	4.81	4.84	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	TEX	13	13	78	329	67	39	10	100%	6.0	20.2%	11.8%	8.4%	3.1%	4.92	4.98	+0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	74	312	62	38	10	100%	6.2	19.9%	12.1%	7.7%	3.3%	5.08	5.17	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		82	82	486	2052	416	242	61	100%	5.9	20.3%	11.8%	8.5%	3.0%	4.87	4.50	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	171	100	25	100%	5.9	20.3%	11.8%	8.5%	3.0%	4.87	4.50	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		118	80	419	1935	368	252	47	68%	3.6	19.0%	13.0%	6.0%	2.4%	4.89	4.48	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	38	200	923	176	120	22	68%	3.6	19.0%	13.0%	6.0%	2.4%	4.89	4.48	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
D.J. McCarty (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.07	18.8%	14.1%	2.5%	—	4.70	20.2%	8.2%	280	-0.37	—	—	—
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	89
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	88
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	87
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.73	16.1%	4.0%	225	+1.44	2.86	357	86
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	86
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	85
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	85
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	85
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	85
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	85
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	84
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	84
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	84
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	83
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	83
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	83
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	83
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	83
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	82
Gabriel Encinas R 2015 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	20.9%	17.0%	1.4%	.291	5.46	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.20	2.92	145	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	86	20.1%	12.0%	1.05	4.79
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04