D.J. McCarty
P
Hub City Spartanburgers
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 145 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.9 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION59 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 114
ERA5.03
FIP5.03
K%18.8%
BB%14.0%
K-BB%4.9%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 16 | 2 | 27 | 144 | 36 | 26 | 5 | 12% | 1.7 | 17.0% | 22.6% | -5.6% | 4.7% | 7.76 | 7.12 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 16 | 2 | 27 | 144 | 36 | 26 | 5 | 12% | 1.7 | 25.0% | 18.1% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 7.76 | 5.76 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 11 | 48 | 229 | 53 | 26 | 1 | 92% | 4.0 | 15.8% | 13.7% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 5.44 | 3.84 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 11 | 48 | 229 | 53 | 26 | 1 | 92% | 4.0 | 23.1% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 0.4% | 5.44 | 2.79 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 23 | 12 | 74 | 311 | 86 | 27 | 1 | 52% | 3.2 | 20.5% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.4% | 3.05 | 2.87 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 23 | 12 | 74 | 311 | 86 | 27 | 1 | 52% | 3.2 | 27.7% | 8.7% | 19.0% | 0.3% | 3.05 | 2.04 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 21 | 19 | 91 | 410 | 110 | 34 | 11 | 90% | 4.3 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 4.43 | 4.35 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 21 | 19 | 91 | 410 | 110 | 34 | 11 | 90% | 4.3 | 26.8% | 8.3% | 18.5% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 3.37 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 23 | 17 | 88 | 410 | 98 | 52 | 4 | 74% | 3.8 | 18.4% | 14.6% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 4.83 | 3.86 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 23 | 17 | 88 | 410 | 98 | 52 | 4 | 74% | 3.8 | 23.9% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 1.0% | 4.83 | 3.24 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 14 | 13 | 59 | 267 | 73 | 27 | 14 | 93% | 4.2 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 5.92 | 6.39 | -1.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 62 | 260 | 49 | 36 | 6 | 100% | 5.1 | 18.8% | 14.0% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 5.03 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.8% | 14.0% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 5.05 | 5.05 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 121 | 527 | 122 | 63 | 20 | — | — | 23.1% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 3.9% | 5.46 | 5.70 | -0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 18.8% | 14.0% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 5.05 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 53 | 34 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.8% | 12.6% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 4.85 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 55 | 32 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.5% | 11.8% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 4.71 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 56 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.8% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 4.64 | 4.60 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 55 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 4.63 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 23 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.8% | 12.6% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 4.87 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 36 | 21 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.5% | 11.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 4.73 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 45 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.8% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 4.66 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 48 | 27 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.65 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 30 | 174 | 736 | 152 | 87 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.6% | 11.9% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 4.70 | 4.29 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 175 | 100 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.6% | 11.9% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 4.70 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 109 | 74 | 387 | 1771 | 341 | 226 | 44 | 68% | 3.5 | 19.2% | 12.7% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 4.84 | 4.44 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 38 | 200 | 916 | 176 | 117 | 23 | 68% | 3.5 | 19.2% | 12.7% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 4.84 | 4.44 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| D.J. McCarty (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.03 | 18.8% | 14.0% | 2.5% | — | 4.68 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 191 | -0.35 | — | — | — |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2025 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 89 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 87 |
| Brandon Decker R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.90 | 18.3% | 12.6% | 1.4% | .296 | 4.11 | 21.5% | 10.8% | 33 | +0.21 | 3.90 | 117 | 87 |
| Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .241 | 4.68 | 14.8% | -0.6% | 123 | -0.25 | 4.52 | 196 | 87 |
| Jimmy Endersby R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 2.0% | .310 | 6.03 | 16.4% | 3.7% | 225 | +1.83 | 2.73 | 357 | 86 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 86 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.25 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .251 | 4.81 | 18.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.56 | 3.93 | 268 | 86 |
| Carlson Reed R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 86 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 85 |
| Jacob Meador R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.28 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .301 | 6.83 | 14.7% | -6.6% | 50 | +1.55 | 5.28 | 139 | 85 |
| David Lebron R 2028 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 84 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.55 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.24 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.31 | 3.72 | 283 | 84 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.94 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .269 | 4.98 | 17.4% | 3.3% | 197 | +0.04 | 4.60 | 529 | 84 |
| J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.91 | 18.2% | 16.0% | 2.4% | .259 | 5.03 | 15.9% | 0.6% | 115 | +0.12 | 4.62 | 195 | 83 |
| Jackson Finley R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.04 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 1.5% | .361 | 3.85 | 20.7% | 11.4% | 49 | -0.19 | 3.85 | 132 | 83 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.67 | 20.8% | 13.7% | 2.9% | .309 | 3.76 | 24.1% | 14.7% | 238 | -0.91 | 2.15 | 702 | 83 |
| Gabriel Encinas R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 20.9% | 17.0% | 1.8% | .291 | 5.52 | 17.3% | -10.3% | 47 | +1.07 | 2.92 | 145 | 83 |
| Cade Winquest R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .299 | 3.91 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 158 | -0.45 | 3.34 | 236 | 83 |
| Nolan DeVos R 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.07 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 1.8% | .302 | 6.16 | 17.9% | 6.0% | 73 | +2.09 | 4.07 | 172 | 83 |
| James Proctor R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 1.6% | .277 | 4.35 | 14.0% | 1.5% | 48 | +0.33 | 4.02 | 109 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 63 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 0.98 | 4.77 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Junior Guerra ('21) | 6 | 84 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 1.16 | 4.04 |