Mason Molina

P Springfield Cardinals

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 230 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.6 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #948MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ACarolina Mudc…	2	2	5	0.00	1.30	33.3%	5.6%	—	K 33.3% · BB 5.6% · FIP 0.99
2025	22	MIX2 levels	23	22	96	3.10	3.05	30.1%	10.9%	—	K 22.7% · BB 12.6% · FIP 4.23
2026	23	MIX2 levels	27	27	124	3.57	3.12	28.5%	10.1%	—	K 23.7% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.68
2027PROJ	24	MLBSTL	14	14	80	4.49	4.49	23.4%	11.8%	0.4
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBSTL	8	8	49	4.30	4.27	23.6%	11.0%	0.3
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBSTL	12	12	75	4.26	4.24	23.7%	10.7%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$3M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff47Control45Command40FB velo52

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 16, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 70%

CompsHayden Mullins (age 23) · Connelly Early (age 22) · T.J. Sikkema (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

K%23.4%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%11.6%

Proj IP80

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4045

CTRL—45

CMD3040

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	2	2	5	18	6	1	0	100%	2.5	33.3%	5.6%	27.8%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2024	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	2	2	5	18	6	1	0	100%	2.5	33.3%	5.6%	27.8%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2024	21	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	2	2	5	18	6	1	0	100%	2.5	33.3%	5.6%	27.8%	0.0%	0.00	1.30	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	96	395	119	43	8	96%	4.2	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	2.6%	3.10	4.23	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	96	395	119	43	8	96%	4.2	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	2.6%	3.10	4.23	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	96	395	119	43	8	96%	4.2	30.1%	10.9%	19.2%	2.0%	3.10	3.05	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	124	526	150	53	11	100%	4.6	23.7%	10.1%	13.7%	2.4%	3.57	3.68	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	124	526	150	53	11	100%	4.6	23.7%	10.1%	13.7%	2.4%	3.57	3.68	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	124	526	150	53	11	100%	4.6	28.5%	10.1%	18.4%	2.1%	3.57	3.12	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	STL	14	14	80	338	79	40	9	100%	5.7	23.4%	11.8%	11.6%	2.7%	4.49	4.49	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	113	476	113	52	13	100%	5.9	23.6%	11.0%	12.7%	2.7%	4.41	4.38	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	113	476	113	51	13	100%	5.9	23.7%	10.7%	13.0%	2.8%	4.37	4.35	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	111	469	111	50	13	100%	6.2	23.6%	10.6%	13.0%	2.8%	4.37	4.38	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	108	455	107	49	13	100%	6.0	23.5%	10.7%	12.8%	2.9%	4.42	4.46	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	103	434	101	47	13	100%	6.1	23.2%	10.9%	12.3%	3.1%	4.52	4.59	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	97	408	93	46	13	100%	6.0	22.9%	11.2%	11.6%	3.3%	4.67	4.77	+0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	90	381	86	44	13	100%	6.0	22.5%	11.6%	10.9%	3.5%	4.85	4.97	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	49	207	49	23	5	100%	6.1	23.6%	11.0%	12.7%	2.5%	4.30	4.27	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	75	317	75	34	8	100%	6.2	23.7%	10.7%	13.0%	2.6%	4.26	4.24	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	86	363	86	39	10	100%	6.1	23.6%	10.6%	13.0%	2.6%	4.26	4.27	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	91	384	90	41	10	100%	6.1	23.5%	10.7%	12.8%	2.7%	4.31	4.35	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	90	380	88	41	11	100%	6.0	23.2%	10.9%	12.3%	2.9%	4.40	4.47	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	87	367	84	41	11	100%	6.2	22.9%	11.2%	11.6%	3.0%	4.54	4.64	+0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	83	350	79	41	11	100%	5.9	22.5%	11.6%	10.9%	3.3%	4.72	4.84	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		94	94	561	2371	552	260	67	100%	6.0	23.3%	11.0%	12.3%	2.8%	4.41	4.07	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	197	93	24	100%	6.0	23.3%	11.0%	12.3%	2.8%	4.41	4.07	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		52	51	224	939	221	104	23	98%	4.3	23.5%	11.1%	12.4%	2.5%	3.29	3.86	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	45	200	837	197	93	21	98%	4.3	23.5%	11.1%	12.4%	2.5%	3.29	3.86	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Molina (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	23.4%	11.8%	2.7%	—	4.37	23.7%	12.9%	336	-0.12	—	—	—
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	84
Connelly Early L 2024 · 3.33 FIP	22	SP	3.33	24.1%	9.8%	1.9%	.292	3.28	26.0%	17.0%	214	-0.05	2.52	318	83
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	82
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	82
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	82
Damon Jones L 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP	3.71	25.9%	13.8%	1.9%	.266	4.21	25.5%	7.4%	41	+0.50	3.71	269	82
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	81
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	81
Marc Rzepczynski L 2010 · 4.23 FIP	24	SP	4.23	19.9%	10.1%	2.8%	.332	3.54	21.2%	13.0%	139	-0.69	2.43	491	81
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	80
Jacob Latz L 2019 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	23.0%	12.6%	1.1%	.222	5.12	22.8%	10.7%	149	+1.77	2.39	480	80
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	80
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	79
J.C. Romero L 2000 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP	4.58	18.7%	11.2%	3.0%	.356	3.98	18.2%	8.4%	209	-0.60	2.88	652	79
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	79
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	78
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	78
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	78
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.29	19.3%	13.9%	222	-0.12	3.22	285	77
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	102	23.3%	11.0%	1.15	4.50
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
George Chalmers ('10-'16, 2 WAR*)	3.2	108	20.2%*	10.7%*	1.14*	4.59*
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
John Patterson ('07)	2.3	76	21.2%	9.1%	1.19	4.32