Thatcher Hurd

P Tampa Tarpons

Age 24 RHP A peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	MIX2 levels	11	11	43	3.98	4.19	29.4%	13.9%	—	K 22.1% · BB 17.2% · FIP 6.02
2027PROJ	24	MLBNYY	3	3	19	5.20	5.20	22.7%	15.2%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBNYY	3	3	17	4.99	4.91	23.2%	13.3%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 87%

CompsJared Lyons (age 23) · Aaron Hernandez (age 24) · Shawn Hill (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%22.7%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%7.6%

Proj IP19

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	43	180	53	25	6	100%	3.9	22.1%	17.2%	4.9%	4.7%	3.98	6.02	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	43	180	53	25	6	100%	3.9	22.1%	17.2%	4.9%	4.7%	3.98	6.02	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	11	43	180	53	25	6	100%	3.9	29.4%	13.9%	15.6%	3.3%	3.98	4.19	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	NYY	3	3	19	80	18	12	3	100%	6.3	22.7%	15.2%	7.6%	3.1%	5.20	5.20	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	7	7	39	166	38	22	5	100%	5.6	23.2%	13.3%	9.8%	3.1%	4.99	4.91	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	3	3	17	72	17	10	2	100%	5.7	23.2%	13.3%	9.8%	3.1%	4.99	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	17	71	16	9	2	100%	5.6	23.2%	13.3%	9.8%	3.1%	4.99	4.53	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	191	107	24	100%	5.9	23.2%	13.3%	9.8%	3.1%	4.99	4.53	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		11	11	43	180	40	31	9	100%	3.9	22.1%	17.2%	4.9%	4.7%	3.98	6.02	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	51	200	837	185	144	40	100%	3.9	22.1%	17.2%	4.9%	4.7%	3.98	6.02	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Thatcher Hurd (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	22.7%	15.2%	3.1%	—	4.91	23.2%	9.8%	39	-0.29	—	—	—
Jared Lyons R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP	4.72	22.1%	14.4%	3.0%	.258	4.13	17.6%	8.7%	173	-0.59	3.28	265	79
Aaron Hernandez R 2021 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP	4.65	20.9%	16.4%	2.2%	.329	5.36	18.8%	5.8%	59	+0.71	4.65	194	78
Shawn Hill R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP	4.26	19.6%	13.7%	2.0%	.450	3.70	14.5%	8.6%	134	-0.56	2.96	239	78
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	77
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	75
Shane Davis R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP	4.19	20.9%	14.2%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	129	75
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	74
Luis Quiñones R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	24	SP	4.82	26.6%	21.5%	2.2%	.290	4.79	22.7%	9.3%	231	-0.03	3.69	326	74
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	74
Rafael Montero R 2014 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	21.6%	11.9%	4.1%	.298	4.32	19.3%	8.2%	296	-0.72	2.43	714	74
Ryan Jensen R 2022 · 4.87 FIP	24	SP	4.87	18.8%	16.6%	2.3%	.252	4.34	23.7%	6.6%	150	-0.53	3.92	311	74
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	74
Griff McGarry R 2023 · 4.17 FIP	24	SP	4.17	25.9%	17.1%	2.0%	.231	4.33	25.6%	5.9%	134	+0.16	2.46	282	72
Jackson Fristoe R 2024 · 4.81 FIP	23	SP	4.81	18.8%	19.6%	1.5%	.266	6.79	13.5%	-4.0%	74	+1.98	4.81	139	72
Britt Reames R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	18.2%	12.9%	2.4%	.230	4.35	21.9%	11.5%	163	-0.14	3.76	204	72
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	71
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	71
Ryan Costeiu R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	20.5%	13.6%	2.3%	.208	4.91	18.4%	7.9%	241	+0.56	4.34	397	71
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	71
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	23.0%	13.9%	1.20	5.06
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*