Tyson Neighbors — OGILVIE

Tyson Neighbors P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.03

FIP4.03

K%29.2%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%17.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF6060

CTRL4545

CMD3045

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	4	0	5	23	9	4	0	0%	1.2	39.1%	17.4%	21.7%	0.0%	3.86	2.00	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	4	0	5	23	9	4	0	0%	1.2	39.1%	17.4%	21.7%	0.0%	3.86	2.00	—
2024	21	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	4	0	5	23	9	4	0	0%	1.2	39.1%	17.4%	21.7%	0.0%	3.86	1.81	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	59	228	83	23	4	0%	1.3	28.8%	11.3%	17.5%	1.8%	1.53	3.11	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	59	228	83	23	4	0%	1.3	28.8%	11.3%	17.5%	1.8%	1.53	3.11	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	59	228	83	23	4	0%	1.3	36.4%	10.1%	26.3%	1.8%	1.53	2.34	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	33	0	34	181	57	35	5	0%	1.0	25.0%	20.8%	4.2%	3.0%	8.82	5.28	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	33	0	34	181	57	35	5	0%	1.0	25.0%	20.8%	4.2%	3.0%	8.82	5.28	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	BAL	5	0	4	22	8	5	1	0%	0.7	36.4%	22.7%	13.6%	4.5%	17.18	5.40	—
2026	23	AA RAW	BAL	28	0	30	159	49	30	4	0%	1.1	30.8%	18.9%	11.9%	2.5%	7.80	4.27	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	BAL	6	0	6	25	7	3	1	0%	1.0	29.2%	11.8%	17.4%	2.8%	4.03	4.03	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	40	206	64	38	6	—	—	31.2%	18.4%	12.8%	2.8%	8.11	5.09	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BAL	88	0	92	389	113	42	11	0%	1.0	29.1%	10.8%	18.2%	2.8%	3.97	3.92	+0.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	89	0	93	394	114	41	11	0%	1.0	28.9%	10.3%	18.7%	2.8%	3.91	3.86	+0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	89	0	93	394	114	40	11	0%	1.0	28.8%	10.1%	18.7%	2.8%	3.88	3.86	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	88	0	92	388	111	39	11	0%	1.0	28.6%	10.1%	18.5%	2.8%	3.90	3.90	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	BAL	85	0	89	377	107	39	11	0%	1.0	28.5%	10.3%	18.2%	2.9%	3.95	3.99	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	BAL	81	0	85	360	102	38	11	0%	1.1	28.3%	10.5%	17.8%	3.1%	4.05	4.12	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	BAL	76	0	80	338	94	37	11	0%	1.1	27.9%	10.8%	17.1%	3.3%	4.20	4.29	+0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	BAL	38	0	40	169	49	18	5	0%	1.1	29.1%	10.8%	18.2%	2.9%	4.04	3.99	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	59	0	62	262	76	27	8	0%	1.1	28.9%	10.3%	18.7%	2.9%	3.98	3.93	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	70	0	74	312	90	32	9	0%	1.1	28.8%	10.1%	18.7%	2.9%	3.95	3.93	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	75	0	79	334	95	34	10	0%	1.1	28.6%	10.1%	18.5%	3.0%	3.97	3.97	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	BAL	75	0	79	334	95	34	10	0%	1.1	28.5%	10.3%	18.2%	3.1%	4.02	4.06	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	BAL	73	0	77	325	92	34	10	0%	1.1	28.3%	10.5%	17.8%	3.2%	4.13	4.20	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	BAL	70	0	74	312	87	34	11	0%	1.1	27.9%	10.8%	17.1%	3.4%	4.28	4.37	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		464	0	487	2055	587	213	63	0%	1.0	28.6%	10.4%	18.2%	3.1%	4.05	3.69	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	241	88	26	0%	1.1	28.6%	10.4%	18.2%	3.1%	4.05	3.69	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		81	0	97	432	120	67	10	0%	1.2	27.7%	15.6%	12.2%	2.2%	4.16	3.96	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		166	0	200	888	246	138	20	0%	1.2	27.7%	15.6%	12.2%	2.2%	4.16	3.96	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyson Neighbors (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.03	29.2%	11.8%	2.8%	—	3.88	28.9%	18.5%	279	-0.15	—	—	—
Lucas Wepf R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	27.6%	10.7%	2.7%	.323	3.97	26.2%	13.8%	136	+0.35	2.90	195	88
Steven Wilson R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	27.2%	10.7%	3.3%	.271	3.81	29.3%	19.9%	92	-0.18	3.64	328	86
Taylor Floyd R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	23	SU	3.48	27.7%	12.1%	2.2%	.291	4.30	19.4%	6.5%	183	+0.82	3.48	359	85
Alex Cook R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	22	SU	4.04	26.1%	10.8%	3.2%	.266	3.76	21.7%	13.9%	96	-0.28	2.93	162	84
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	84
Magnus Ellerts R 2023 · 3.61 FIP	22	SU	3.61	29.5%	11.5%	2.8%	.325	3.98	27.0%	10.2%	118	+0.37	3.56	159	83
Jacob Webb R 2022 · 3.33 FIP	23	SU	3.33	26.7%	12.8%	1.6%	.328	4.52	18.9%	7.7%	170	+1.19	3.33	268	82
Shane Smith R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	23	SU	3.52	28.1%	10.4%	2.7%	.259	3.59	22.9%	13.1%	284	+0.07	3.01	342	82
Ryan Sublette R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	23	SU	3.74	27.3%	14.6%	2.0%	.301	5.29	19.7%	2.0%	149	+1.55	3.74	203	82
Paul Voelker R 2016 · 3.90 FIP	23	SU	3.90	27.5%	10.4%	3.3%	.376	4.36	18.2%	9.0%	147	+0.46	3.06	256	82
Justin Yeager R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	26.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.281	3.96	25.4%	12.6%	103	+0.37	3.32	262	81
Patrick Ruotolo R 2018 · 4.25 FIP	23	SU	4.25	27.5%	10.6%	3.9%	.263	3.60	28.9%	25.8%	37	-0.65	3.07	190	81
Nick Ernst R 2021 · 3.56 FIP	24	SU	3.56	30.5%	15.3%	2.0%	.292	5.05	21.9%	7.3%	60	+1.49	3.56	117	81
Eli Villalobos R 2021 · 3.75 FIP	24	SU	3.75	28.1%	9.6%	3.3%	.337	4.88	22.7%	9.7%	153	+1.13	3.75	214	81
Zac Leigh R 2022 · 3.70 FIP	24	SU	3.70	28.5%	12.3%	2.6%	.270	4.45	21.6%	5.7%	130	+0.75	3.70	201	81
Jacob Dorris R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	26.9%	12.4%	3.2%	.295	4.58	19.2%	8.8%	88	+0.42	4.16	130	80
Randall Delgado R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	25	SU	3.61	23.7%	10.1%	2.2%	.284	3.78	20.3%	12.4%	167	+0.17	3.09	290	80
Scott Engler R 2019 · 2.97 FIP	22	SU	2.97	26.4%	10.2%	1.5%	.296	4.14	23.8%	12.6%	53	+1.17	2.97	170	80
Franco Aleman R 2023 · 2.92 FIP	23	SU	2.92	28.4%	8.8%	2.0%	.315	2.96	29.2%	19.7%	114	+0.04	2.38	225	80
Donovan Benoit R 2022 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	25.3%	12.4%	1.9%	.284	4.43	17.6%	4.3%	138	+0.85	3.58	183	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	89	28.7%	10.6%	1.12	3.98
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Alek Manoah ('24)	2.1	105	23.4%	9.0%	1.03	3.34