Tyson Neighbors
P
Chesapeake Baysox
+0.6
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.7 · 2028
ERA4.16
FIP4.16
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%25.1%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%15.1%
IP59
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2028
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 4 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 44 | 0 | 59 | 228 | 83 | 23 | 4 | 28.8% | 11.3% | 1.9% | 1.53 | 3.13 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 4 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 13.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BAL | 59 | — | 59 | 249 | 63 | 25 | 7 | 25.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.16 | 4.16 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 63 | 273 | 71 | 29 | 8 | 25.9% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 3.90 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 65 | 24 | 7 | 25.5% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.05 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 67 | 24 | 7 | 25.7% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.04 | 3.99 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 67 | 24 | 7 | 25.8% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 3.99 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 66 | 23 | 7 | 25.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.01 | 4.00 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 65 | 23 | 7 | 25.7% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 4.03 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 59 | — | 59 | 247 | 63 | 23 | 7 | 25.6% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.08 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 61 | 22 | 7 | 25.4% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 58 | 22 | 7 | 25.2% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.17 | 4.21 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 53 | — | 53 | 222 | 55 | 21 | 7 | 24.9% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.25 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 52 | 21 | 7 | 24.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.34 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 49 | 20 | 7 | 24.2% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.44 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 45 | 19 | 6 | 23.8% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.55 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 42 | 19 | 6 | 23.4% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 4.68 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 52 | 0 | 68 | 275 | 83 | 34 | 5 | 30.1% | 12.3% | 1.9% | 2.39 | 3.17 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 154 | 0 | 200 | 813 | 245 | 100 | 15 | 30.1% | 12.3% | 1.9% | 2.39 | 3.17 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyson Neighbors (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.16 | 25.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | — | 4.01 | 25.7% | 16.4% | 183 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Lucas Wepf R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.65 | 27.6% | 10.7% | 2.8% | .323 | 3.49 | 26.5% | 14.2% | 85 | -0.16 | 2.90 | 144 | 96 |
| Steven Wilson R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .271 | 3.68 | 29.3% | 19.9% | 92 | -0.34 | 3.61 | 311 | 91 |
| Jackson Kelley R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.80 | 26.5% | 13.1% | 2.3% | .313 | 3.99 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 94 | +0.19 | 3.80 | 146 | 89 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.23 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 3.1% | .312 | 5.10 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +0.87 | 4.23 | 152 | 89 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.84 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .344 | 4.99 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.15 | 3.63 | 386 | 89 |
| Scott Engler R 2025 · 2.95 FIP | 22 | SW | 2.95 | 26.4% | 10.2% | 1.5% | .296 | 4.14 | 23.8% | 12.6% | 53 | +1.19 | 2.95 | 170 | 88 |
| Franco Aleman R 2026 · 2.94 FIP | 23 | SW | 2.94 | 28.4% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.23 | 30.0% | 17.2% | 59 | +0.29 | 2.43 | 170 | 87 |
| Trent Harris R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.46 | 26.9% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .258 | 3.75 | 23.1% | 14.7% | 57 | +0.29 | 3.46 | 134 | 87 |
| Nigel Belgrave R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 23 | SW | 2.96 | 26.5% | 11.0% | 1.3% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 125 | 87 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.63 | 26.2% | 12.8% | 3.9% | .282 | 4.67 | 22.3% | 11.4% | 86 | +0.04 | 4.41 | 152 | 87 |
| Paul Voelker R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 27.5% | 10.4% | 3.3% | .376 | 4.35 | 18.2% | 9.0% | 147 | +0.46 | 3.06 | 256 | 87 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.33 | 26.7% | 12.8% | 1.6% | .328 | 4.54 | 18.9% | 7.7% | 170 | +1.21 | 3.33 | 223 | 87 |
| Shane Smith R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.53 | 28.1% | 10.4% | 2.7% | .259 | 3.55 | 23.8% | 14.9% | 234 | +0.02 | 2.98 | 292 | 87 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.48 | 27.7% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.31 | 19.4% | 6.5% | 183 | +0.83 | 3.48 | 290 | 86 |
| Randall Delgado R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 86 |
| Josh White R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.37 | 24.5% | 11.4% | 1.6% | .319 | 1.89 | 34.6% | 25.2% | 68 | -1.48 | 1.89 | 191 | 86 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.49 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .262 | 6.13 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.64 | 3.49 | 207 | 86 |
| Jacob Dorris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.58 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 88 | +0.48 | 4.10 | 130 | 86 |
| Chris Mauloni R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.81 | 25.6% | 11.5% | 4.4% | .333 | 5.71 | 17.6% | 1.4% | 71 | +0.90 | 4.81 | 129 | 85 |
| Carlos Estévez R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.57 | 24.0% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.63 | 24.0% | 16.3% | 166 | +0.06 | 2.50 | 603 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.4M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $3M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $8M | $17M | +$9M | ||