Tyson Neighbors
P
Chesapeake Baysox
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION19 act + 90 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111101vR 92
ERA4.01
FIP4.01
K%29.2%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%17.4%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 4 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 39.1% | 17.4% | 21.7% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 2.00 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 4 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 39.1% | 17.4% | 21.7% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 1.81 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 59 | 228 | 83 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.8% | 11.3% | 17.5% | 1.7% | 1.53 | 3.02 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 59 | 228 | 83 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 36.4% | 10.1% | 26.3% | 1.8% | 1.53 | 2.34 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 18 | 0 | 19 | 109 | 37 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.0% | 19.0% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 10.71 | 6.25 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BAL | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 111 | 45 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.2% | 11.8% | 17.4% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 4.01 | +1.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BAL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.2% | 11.8% | 17.4% | 2.8% | 4.07 | 4.07 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 109 | 489 | 148 | 65 | 15 | — | — | 30.3% | 13.3% | 17.0% | 3.1% | 5.19 | 4.41 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 29.2% | 11.8% | 17.4% | 2.8% | 4.07 | 3.68 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 88 | 0 | 92 | 389 | 113 | 42 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.1% | 10.8% | 18.3% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 3.89 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 114 | 40 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.9% | 10.3% | 18.7% | 2.7% | 3.89 | 3.84 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 114 | 40 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.8% | 10.1% | 18.7% | 2.7% | 3.86 | 3.83 | +1.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 88 | 0 | 92 | 388 | 111 | 39 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.6% | 10.1% | 18.5% | 2.8% | 3.88 | 3.88 | +1.5 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 49 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.1% | 10.8% | 18.3% | 2.8% | 4.01 | 3.95 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 76 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.9% | 10.3% | 18.7% | 2.8% | 3.95 | 3.90 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 70 | 0 | 74 | 312 | 90 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.8% | 10.1% | 18.7% | 2.9% | 3.92 | 3.89 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 75 | 0 | 79 | 334 | 95 | 34 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.6% | 10.1% | 18.5% | 2.9% | 3.94 | 3.94 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 245 | 0 | 258 | 1088 | 314 | 112 | 31 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.8% | 10.3% | 18.6% | 2.9% | 3.95 | 3.54 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 244 | 87 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.8% | 10.3% | 18.6% | 2.9% | 3.95 | 3.54 | +4.4 | ||
| Career | — | 66 | 0 | 83 | 360 | 104 | 50 | 10 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.9% | 14.0% | 14.9% | 2.7% | 3.80 | 3.93 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 159 | 0 | 200 | 867 | 251 | 121 | 24 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.9% | 14.0% | 14.9% | 2.7% | 3.80 | 3.93 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyson Neighbors (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.01 | 29.2% | 11.8% | 2.7% | — | 3.85 | 28.9% | 18.6% | 279 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Lucas Wepf R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.68 | 27.6% | 10.7% | 2.8% | .323 | 3.88 | 26.5% | 15.2% | 118 | +0.20 | 2.90 | 176 | 88 |
| Steven Wilson R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.13 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .271 | 3.80 | 29.3% | 19.9% | 92 | -0.33 | 3.36 | 311 | 86 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.34 | 27.7% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .291 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 6.5% | 183 | +0.98 | 3.34 | 334 | 85 |
| Jackson Kelley R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.84 | 26.5% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 3.92 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 138 | +0.08 | 3.80 | 190 | 84 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.34 | 26.7% | 12.8% | 1.6% | .328 | 4.48 | 18.9% | 7.7% | 170 | +1.14 | 3.34 | 252 | 83 |
| Shane Smith R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.44 | 28.1% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .259 | 3.41 | 24.0% | 14.9% | 252 | -0.03 | 2.87 | 309 | 82 |
| Franco Aleman R 2026 · 2.86 FIP | 23 | SU | 2.86 | 28.4% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .315 | 2.40 | 32.4% | 21.4% | 88 | -0.46 | 0.86 | 198 | 82 |
| Paul Voelker R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.76 | 27.5% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .376 | 4.47 | 18.2% | 9.0% | 147 | +0.71 | 3.05 | 256 | 82 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.73 | 27.3% | 14.6% | 2.0% | .301 | 5.31 | 20.1% | 1.6% | 149 | +1.58 | 3.73 | 203 | 82 |
| Nigel Belgrave R 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 2.89 | 26.5% | 11.0% | 1.1% | .267 | 4.08 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 39 | +1.19 | 2.89 | 164 | 81 |
| Nick Ernst R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.54 | 30.5% | 15.3% | 2.0% | .292 | 4.99 | 21.9% | 7.3% | 60 | +1.45 | 3.54 | 117 | 81 |
| Justin Yeager R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.58 | 26.6% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .281 | 3.98 | 25.4% | 12.6% | 103 | +0.40 | 3.21 | 239 | 81 |
| Eli Villalobos R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.79 | 28.1% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .337 | 5.01 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 153 | +1.22 | 3.79 | 214 | 81 |
| Magnus Ellerts R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.51 | 28.1% | 13.7% | 1.9% | .284 | 4.58 | 26.0% | 5.6% | 59 | +1.07 | 3.51 | 156 | 81 |
| Zac Leigh R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 28.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .270 | 4.55 | 21.7% | 5.4% | 130 | +0.78 | 3.72 | 197 | 81 |
| Jacob Dorris R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.86 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 2.7% | .295 | 4.59 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 88 | +0.73 | 3.86 | 130 | 81 |
| Austin Roberts R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.57 | 26.8% | 10.1% | 4.5% | .338 | 4.16 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 188 | -0.41 | 3.33 | 349 | 81 |
| Trent Harris R 2028 · 3.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.45 | 26.9% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .258 | 4.07 | 22.8% | 13.3% | 87 | +0.62 | 3.45 | 163 | 80 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2028 · 3.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.05 | 26.1% | 11.5% | 1.3% | .280 | 4.18 | 22.9% | 7.4% | 77 | +1.13 | 3.05 | 134 | 80 |
| Randall Delgado R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.57 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .284 | 3.71 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | +0.14 | 3.05 | 290 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 92 | 28.9% | 10.6% | 1.06 | 3.92 |
| Danny Salazar ('17) | 3 | 142 | 28.1% | 9.0% | 1.12 | 3.79 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Triston McKenzie ('24) | 4 | 105 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 3.94 |
| Mike Clevinger ('23) | 7 | 113 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 1.07 | 3.45 |