Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 24 | 8 | 56 | 260 | 75 | 18 | 6 | 33% | 2.3 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 6.31 | 3.93 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 24 | 8 | 56 | 260 | 75 | 18 | 6 | 33% | 2.3 | 28.8% | 6.9% | 21.9% | 2.3% | 6.31 | 2.78 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 84 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.4% | 8.8% | 19.6% | 1.9% | 3.11 | 2.86 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 84 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 36.1% | 7.7% | 28.3% | 1.7% | 3.11 | 1.97 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 24 | 0 | 23 | 93 | 34 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 32.2% | 11.3% | 20.9% | 1.1% | 1.99 | 2.39 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 24 | 0 | 23 | 93 | 34 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 36.6% | 10.8% | 25.8% | 1.1% | 1.99 | 2.00 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 37 | 0 | 37 | 175 | 57 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.7% | 13.8% | 14.9% | 2.1% | 7.85 | 3.59 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 37 | 0 | 37 | 175 | 57 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.6% | 13.1% | 19.4% | 2.3% | 7.85 | 3.29 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 34 | 0 | 36 | 130 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 37.5% | 7.3% | 30.2% | 0.0% | 0.50 | 0.86 | +1.6 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CLE | 49 | 0 | 52 | 217 | 69 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.8% | 12.7% | 19.1% | 2.5% | 3.38 | 3.38 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CLE | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 70 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.8% | 12.7% | 19.1% | 2.5% | 3.38 | 3.38 | +0.7 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 88 | 347 | 117 | 37 | 6 | — | — | 33.7% | 10.5% | 23.2% | 1.8% | 2.19 | 2.34 | +2.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 60 | 251 | 117 | 37 | 6 | — | — | 46.6% | 14.6% | 32.0% | 2.5% | 3.23 | 2.40 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 72 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.0% | 12.5% | 16.5% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 68 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.5% | 12.4% | 16.1% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 52 | 0 | 54 | 229 | 64 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.0% | 12.4% | 15.5% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 69 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.0% | 12.5% | 16.5% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 65 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.5% | 12.4% | 16.1% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 60 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.0% | 12.4% | 15.5% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 209 | 0 | 221 | 927 | 268 | 114 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.9% | 12.3% | 16.6% | 2.8% | 3.89 | 3.76 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 840 | 243 | 103 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.9% | 12.3% | 16.6% | 2.8% | 3.89 | 3.76 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 158 | 8 | 206 | 891 | 250 | 86 | 17 | 5% | 1.3 | 28.1% | 9.6% | 18.5% | 1.9% | 4.23 | 2.98 | +5.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 153 | 8 | 200 | 864 | 243 | 83 | 16 | 5% | 1.3 | 28.1% | 9.6% | 18.5% | 1.9% | 4.23 | 2.98 | +5.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Franco Aleman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.00 | 30.9% | 13.2% | 2.6% | — | 4.23 | 28.5% | 16.1% | 170 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Jon Edwards R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.54 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.7% | .264 | 2.30 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.24 | 2.30 | 132 | 91 |
| Tucker Healy R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.02 | 30.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.85 | 16.9% | 5.8% | 67 | +1.83 | 2.85 | 174 | 88 |
| Justin Grimm R 2026 · 2.93 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.93 | 32.8% | 12.3% | 1.9% | .250 | 4.11 | 26.1% | 15.2% | 157 | +1.18 | 2.93 | 335 | 87 |
| Zach Franklin R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.48 | 29.2% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .265 | 5.47 | 27.4% | 21.2% | 41 | +1.99 | 3.48 | 138 | 85 |
| Peyton Gray R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 85 |
| Eric Orze R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 28.8% | 12.7% | 3.1% | .261 | 3.34 | 22.7% | 12.8% | 112 | -0.62 | 3.06 | 331 | 84 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.5% | .280 | 4.01 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.02 | 3.07 | 363 | 83 |
| Mychal Givens R 2026 · 2.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.86 | 30.7% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .299 | 3.32 | 28.3% | 20.0% | 218 | +0.46 | 1.75 | 526 | 81 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.52 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .245 | 5.01 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.49 | 3.00 | 246 | 81 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.57 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .299 | 4.42 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 87 | -0.15 | 3.74 | 163 | 81 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.89 | 25.1% | 13.4% | 2.2% | .310 | 4.58 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 79 | +0.69 | 3.89 | 272 | 80 |
| Pierce Johnson R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.20 | 27.8% | 11.7% | 1.8% | .374 | 3.75 | 25.0% | 13.7% | 86 | +0.55 | 2.83 | 577 | 80 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 25.8% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .214 | 3.04 | 25.0% | 15.3% | 55 | -0.50 | 2.59 | 156 | 80 |
| Brad Brach R 2029 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 2.0% | .259 | 3.16 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.09 | 2.73 | 410 | 80 |
| Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .295 | 2.74 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.72 | 2.74 | 239 | 79 |
| Jordan Gore R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.24 | 25.8% | 11.9% | 1.5% | .223 | 5.47 | 15.2% | -3.3% | 46 | +2.23 | 3.24 | 113 | 79 |
| Argenis Angulo R 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.12 | 27.6% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .263 | 6.61 | 21.0% | 5.6% | 58 | +2.49 | 3.07 | 245 | 79 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 79 |
| Michael Stryffeler R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.35 | 30.4% | 17.3% | 3.0% | .277 | 4.75 | 19.4% | 1.1% | 33 | +0.40 | 2.43 | 140 | 78 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 2.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.88 | 27.6% | 11.1% | 1.3% | .379 | 3.96 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 43 | +1.08 | 2.88 | 312 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 57 | 29.1% | 12.6% | 1.09 | 4.14 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |