Gage Jump

P Athletics

Age 24 LHP 6'0" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.3 · 2029

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	26	24	113	3.28	2.46	28.4%	7.2%	—	K 22.6% · BB 7.9% · FIP 3.18
2026	23	MIX2 levels	29	29	137	5.20	3.63	27.1%	10.6%	2.1	K 25.8% · BB 10.2% · FIP 3.73
2027PROJ	24	MLBOAK	18	18	99	4.27	4.07	26.1%	9.8%	1.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	25	MLBOAK	23	23	135	4.08	3.97	26.1%	9.3%	1.4
2029PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBOAK	24	24	147	4.01	3.96	26.0%	9.2%	1.6

Last 2 seasons WAR 2.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$6M2030Arb-2$10M2031Arb-3$13M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo75

K%64

Whiff%50

xwOBA vs35

CompsConnelly Early (age 22) · Shane McClanahan (age 24) · Tony Cingrani (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.27

FIP4.07

K%26.1%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%16.3%

Proj IP99

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$24M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5555

CTRL5055

CMD4050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p5025.2%

p6424.7%

xwOBA vs

p350.329

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$8M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+1.6	$11M	+$6M
2030	Arb-2	$10M	+1.5	$10M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$13M	+1.3	$8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$17M		$47M	+$26M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	113	461	131	33	7	92%	4.3	22.6%	7.9%	14.7%	1.8%	3.28	3.18	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	113	461	131	33	7	92%	4.3	22.6%	7.9%	14.7%	1.8%	3.28	3.18	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	113	461	131	33	7	92%	4.3	28.4%	7.2%	21.3%	1.5%	3.28	2.46	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	137	606	164	64	16	100%	4.7	25.8%	10.2%	15.5%	2.8%	5.20	3.73	+1.9
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	137	606	164	64	16	100%	4.7	25.8%	10.2%	15.5%	2.8%	5.20	3.73	+1.9
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	137	606	164	64	16	100%	4.7	27.1%	10.6%	16.5%	2.6%	5.20	3.63	+2.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			20	20	99	437	108	44	12	100%	4.9	24.7%	10.1%	14.6%	2.7%	5.47	3.83	+1.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	OAK	18	18	99	418	109	41	12	100%	5.5	26.1%	9.8%	16.3%	2.8%	4.27	4.07	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	OAK	24	24	142	602	157	56	17	100%	5.9	26.1%	9.3%	16.8%	2.8%	4.12	4.01	+1.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	OAK	26	26	154	652	170	60	18	100%	5.9	26.0%	9.2%	16.8%	2.8%	4.05	4.00	+1.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	OAK	26	26	156	660	170	60	19	100%	6.0	25.8%	9.2%	16.6%	2.9%	4.06	4.05	+1.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	OAK	26	26	156	660	169	61	20	100%	6.0	25.6%	9.3%	16.3%	3.0%	4.11	4.14	+1.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	OAK	25	25	149	630	157	60	20	100%	6.0	25.0%	9.5%	15.5%	3.1%	4.22	4.30	+1.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	OAK	23	23	140	592	144	58	20	100%	6.1	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.3%	4.39	4.51	+0.6
2034	31	MLB MLE	OAK	22	22	131	552	130	56	20	100%	5.9	23.5%	10.2%	13.4%	3.6%	4.60	4.74	+0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	121	510	116	54	19	100%	6.0	22.7%	10.5%	12.2%	3.8%	4.84	4.99	-0.1
2036	33	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	111	468	102	52	19	100%	6.2	21.9%	11.0%	10.9%	4.1%	5.10	5.27	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	OAK	23	23	135	570	149	53	16	100%	5.9	26.1%	9.3%	16.8%	2.7%	4.08	3.97	+1.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	OAK	24	24	147	621	161	57	17	100%	6.1	26.0%	9.2%	16.8%	2.8%	4.01	3.96	+1.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	OAK	25	25	148	625	161	57	18	100%	5.9	25.8%	9.2%	16.6%	2.8%	4.02	4.01	+1.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	OAK	25	25	148	625	160	58	18	100%	5.9	25.6%	9.3%	16.3%	2.9%	4.07	4.10	+1.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	OAK	24	24	142	600	150	57	18	100%	5.9	25.0%	9.5%	15.5%	3.1%	4.18	4.26	+1.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	OAK	22	22	133	562	136	55	18	100%	6.0	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.3%	4.34	4.46	+0.6
2034	31	MLB CTX	OAK	21	21	124	524	123	53	18	100%	5.9	23.5%	10.2%	13.4%	3.5%	4.55	4.69	+0.2
2035	32	MLB CTX	OAK	19	19	115	486	110	51	18	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.5%	12.2%	3.7%	4.79	4.94	-0.1
2036	33	MLB CTX	OAK	18	18	105	443	97	49	18	100%	5.8	21.9%	11.0%	10.9%	4.0%	5.04	5.21	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		220	220	1297	5496	1357	535	172	100%	5.9	24.7%	9.7%	15.0%	3.1%	4.39	3.96	+14.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	848	209	83	27	100%	5.9	24.7%	9.7%	15.0%	3.1%	4.39	3.96	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		55	53	249	1067	260	99	25	96%	4.5	24.4%	9.2%	15.2%	2.3%	4.33	3.49	+8.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	43	200	856	209	79	20	96%	4.5	24.4%	9.2%	15.2%	2.3%	4.33	3.49	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gage Jump (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.07	26.1%	9.8%	2.8%	—	4.02	26.0%	16.7%	453	-0.05	—	—	—
Connelly Early L 2024 · 3.33 FIP	22	SP	3.33	24.1%	9.8%	1.9%	.292	3.28	26.0%	17.0%	214	-0.05	2.52	318	80
Shane McClanahan L 2021 · 3.23 FIP	24	SP	3.23	27.3%	7.2%	2.8%	.326	3.31	28.5%	21.5%	281	+0.08	2.95	643	78
Tony Cingrani L 2013 · 3.65 FIP	24	SP-	3.65	28.6%	10.0%	3.1%	.238	4.26	21.8%	9.1%	184	+0.61	1.68	354	78
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	77
Parker Messick L 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	23.8%	9.1%	2.1%	.302	3.09	25.2%	18.3%	325	-0.27	2.97	580	76
Damon Jones L 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP	3.71	25.9%	13.8%	1.9%	.266	4.21	25.5%	7.4%	41	+0.50	3.71	269	76
Brandyn Garcia L 2024 · 3.27 FIP	24	SP	3.27	21.2%	10.7%	1.1%	.289	3.27	26.9%	17.0%	122	+0.00	2.44	238	75
Ken Waldichuk L 2022 · 3.51 FIP	24	SP	3.51	27.7%	8.9%	2.9%	.292	5.21	21.0%	9.0%	192	+1.70	3.51	432	75
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	75
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	74
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	74
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	74
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	73
Robert Gasser L 2023 · 3.38 FIP	24	SP	3.38	24.1%	7.6%	2.5%	.305	3.48	22.6%	16.0%	208	+0.10	2.38	494	73
Jackson Wolf L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SP	4.16	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.279	4.28	18.8%	9.8%	354	+0.12	4.03	620	73
Isaiah Coupet L 2024 · 3.52 FIP	21	SP-	3.52	23.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.363	6.24	10.4%	-6.7%	16	+2.72	3.52	102	73
Reid Detmers L 2023 · 3.63 FIP	24	SP	3.63	26.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.306	3.68	28.0%	20.5%	414	+0.05	2.77	766	72
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	72
Tyson Guerrero L 2023 · 4.26 FIP	24	SP	4.26	23.9%	9.8%	3.5%	.279	4.66	19.5%	7.7%	142	+0.40	4.26	250	72
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.3	133	24.8%	9.8%	1.23	4.42
Bob Weiland ('28-'40, 10 WAR*)	6.9	139	22.6%*	9.9%*	1.15*	4.26*
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Steve Stone ('71-'81, 16 WAR*)	8.9	163	21.3%*	9.2%*	1.34*	4.35*
Jon Gray ('25)	6.2	123	23.4%	7.8%	1.17	4.49
Chris Archer ('22)	6.8	151	25.4%	8.3%	1.09	3.93
Jake Odorizzi ('22)	6.3	139	22.2%	8.1%	1.23	3.99