Samuel Dutton — OGILVIE

Samuel Dutton P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 23 RHP 5'11" / 199 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.3 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%16.3%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	5	3	8	31	13	2	1	60%	1.5	41.9%	6.5%	35.5%	3.2%	3.52	2.15	—
2025	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	5	3	8	31	13	2	1	60%	1.5	41.9%	6.5%	35.5%	3.2%	3.52	2.15	—
2025	22	A RAW	Stockton Ports	5	3	8	31	13	2	1	60%	1.5	41.9%	6.5%	35.5%	3.2%	3.52	2.19	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	24	23	122	534	67	44	18	96%	5.1	9.7%	9.5%	0.2%	4.2%	4.34	5.80	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	24	23	122	534	67	44	18	96%	5.1	9.7%	9.5%	0.2%	4.2%	4.34	5.80	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	OAK	24	23	122	534	67	44	18	96%	5.1	12.5%	8.2%	4.3%	3.4%	4.34	4.93	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	OAK	22	22	123	518	94	46	16	100%	5.6	18.2%	8.9%	9.3%	3.0%	4.81	4.74	+0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	OAK	21	21	124	525	101	45	16	100%	5.9	19.3%	8.6%	10.7%	3.0%	4.67	4.60	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	OAK	21	21	124	525	104	45	16	100%	5.9	19.9%	8.5%	11.4%	3.0%	4.58	4.54	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	122	517	103	44	16	100%	6.1	19.9%	8.6%	11.4%	3.1%	4.57	4.57	+0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	119	501	99	44	16	100%	5.9	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	3.2%	4.62	4.65	+0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	113	479	94	43	16	100%	6.0	19.6%	8.9%	10.6%	3.3%	4.72	4.78	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	107	450	87	42	16	100%	5.9	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	3.5%	4.86	4.96	-0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	OAK	17	17	99	420	79	40	16	100%	5.8	18.8%	9.6%	9.2%	3.8%	5.04	5.16	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	53	224	41	20	7	100%	5.9	18.2%	8.9%	9.3%	3.0%	4.77	4.70	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	83	350	68	30	10	100%	5.9	19.3%	8.6%	10.7%	3.0%	4.63	4.56	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	99	418	83	36	12	100%	6.2	19.9%	8.5%	11.4%	3.0%	4.54	4.50	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	OAK	17	17	104	439	88	38	13	100%	6.1	19.9%	8.6%	11.4%	3.0%	4.53	4.53	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	OAK	18	18	106	448	89	39	14	100%	5.9	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	3.1%	4.58	4.61	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	OAK	17	17	103	435	85	39	14	100%	6.1	19.6%	8.9%	10.6%	3.2%	4.67	4.73	+0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	98	414	80	38	14	100%	6.1	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	3.4%	4.81	4.91	-0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	93	393	74	38	14	100%	5.8	18.8%	9.6%	9.2%	3.7%	4.99	5.11	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		124	124	738	3115	605	276	99	100%	6.0	19.4%	8.9%	10.6%	3.2%	4.68	4.33	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	164	75	27	100%	6.0	19.4%	8.9%	10.6%	3.2%	4.68	4.33	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		29	26	130	565	65	53	24	90%	4.5	11.4%	9.3%	2.1%	4.2%	4.29	5.60	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	40	200	869	99	81	36	90%	4.5	11.4%	9.3%	2.1%	4.2%	4.29	5.60	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samuel Dutton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	16.3%	9.4%	3.1%	—	4.63	19.1%	10.5%	371	-0.36	—	—	—
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	85
Kevin Folman R 2018 · 4.54 FIP	23	SP	4.54	13.2%	5.9%	3.3%	.312	5.37	16.0%	6.4%	122	+0.83	4.54	161	84
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	84
Chris Clarke R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SP	4.59	15.8%	6.7%	3.6%	.340	3.85	16.2%	9.8%	241	-0.74	3.57	291	83
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	83
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	82
Cole Wiper R 2015 · 5.41 FIP	23	SP	5.41	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	.343	4.52	15.6%	5.2%	136	-0.89	3.97	170	82
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	81
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	81
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	81
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	81
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	81
Chance Kirby R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	17.8%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	5.61	14.2%	6.7%	166	+1.47	4.14	325	81
Jose Campos R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	23	SP	4.89	12.0%	5.8%	3.8%	.320	3.67	16.0%	6.8%	170	-1.22	3.28	241	79
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	79
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	79
Aron McRee R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP	4.26	14.1%	9.9%	2.0%	.293	3.94	9.5%	-3.5%	24	-0.32	2.86	136	79
Andrés Machado R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	16.7%	6.7%	2.7%	.350	4.70	17.6%	8.8%	266	+0.68	3.63	530	78
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	78
Derek Gordon R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP	4.90	15.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.322	4.62	19.9%	10.6%	76	-0.28	4.62	146	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	106	19.3%	8.9%	1.25	4.73
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14