Chase Allsup — OGILVIE

Chase Allsup P Delmarva Shorebirds

+0.0 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 235 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.4 · 2029

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.1%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%8.5%

IP91

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.4peak

2029

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	25	23	100	456	102	72	3	16.9%	18.2%	1.0%	5.33	4.56	+0.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	BAL	17	17	91	384	81	48	10	21.1%	12.6%	2.6%	4.73	4.73	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	BAL	20	20	109	461	100	52	12	21.7%	11.2%	2.6%	4.58	4.51	+1.0
2028	25	MLB	BAL	22	22	123	518	114	54	14	22.1%	10.4%	2.6%	4.45	4.38	+1.3
2029	26	MLB	BAL	24	24	130	548	122	56	15	22.3%	10.2%	2.7%	4.39	4.35	+1.4
2030	27	MLB	BAL	24	24	133	560	125	57	15	22.3%	10.2%	2.7%	4.37	4.36	+1.4
2031	28	MLB	BAL	24	24	133	560	125	57	15	22.3%	10.2%	2.7%	4.38	4.38	+1.4
2032	29	MLB	BAL	24	24	130	548	121	56	15	22.1%	10.3%	2.8%	4.41	4.43	+1.3
2033	30	MLB	BAL	23	23	126	531	117	55	15	21.9%	10.4%	2.8%	4.46	4.49	+1.2
2034	31	MLB	BAL	22	22	121	513	111	54	15	21.7%	10.5%	2.9%	4.52	4.57	+1.0
2035	32	MLB	BAL	21	21	116	492	105	53	15	21.4%	10.7%	3.0%	4.60	4.65	+0.9
2036	33	MLB	BAL	20	20	111	470	99	51	14	21.1%	10.9%	3.1%	4.69	4.75	+0.7
2037	34	MLB	BAL	19	19	106	446	93	49	14	20.8%	11.1%	3.2%	4.79	4.86	+0.5
2038	35	MLB	BAL	18	18	100	421	86	47	14	20.4%	11.3%	3.3%	4.91	4.98	+0.4
2039	36	MLB	BAL	17	17	93	393	78	45	13	20.0%	11.5%	3.4%	5.03	5.12	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			25	23	100	456	77	83	5	16.9%	18.2%	1.0%	5.33	4.56	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—			50	46	200	915	155	167	10	16.9%	18.2%	1.0%	5.33	4.56	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Allsup (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	21.1%	12.6%	2.6%	—	4.41	22.1%	11.5%	362	-0.32	—	—	—
Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	94
Max Bain R 2026 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP-	5.17	20.5%	15.2%	3.4%	.291	6.72	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.55	5.17	174	94
J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.96 FIP	23	SP-	4.96	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.11	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.15	4.70	195	92
Jimmy Endersby R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP-	4.24	20.9%	14.1%	2.0%	.310	5.78	16.4%	3.7%	225	+1.54	2.86	357	91
Will Schomberg R 2026 · 4.84 FIP	23	SP-	4.84	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.85	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.85	206	90
R.J. Freure R 2025 · 5.14 FIP	22	SP-	5.14	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	5.83	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.69	5.14	196	90
Gabriel Encinas R 2026 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP-	4.28	20.9%	17.0%	1.5%	.291	5.47	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.19	2.92	145	90
Zach McCambley R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.4%	13.6%	3.3%	.277	3.30	25.0%	12.6%	123	-1.69	2.58	314	90
Nolan DeVos R 2025 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.82	12.3%	-1.5%	12	+1.65	4.17	110	90
James McArthur R 2025 · 5.06 FIP	22	SP-	5.06	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.44	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.62	3.54	352	89
Kyle Bradish R 2025 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.87	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.68	2.16	615	89
Corey Black R 2026 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP-	4.18	22.1%	13.9%	2.1%	.310	3.55	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.55	139	89
Zach Fruit R 2027 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP-	4.28	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.07	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.79	4.28	151	89
Hayden Merda R 2026 · 5.20 FIP	23	SP-	5.20	16.1%	15.3%	2.8%	.325	4.97	21.5%	6.1%	54	-0.23	4.97	150	88
Jacob Meador R 2026 · 5.35 FIP	23	SP-	5.35	15.6%	14.0%	3.3%	.301	6.74	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.35	139	87
David Lebron R 2028 · 4.30 FIP	25	SP-	4.30	18.6%	14.2%	1.8%	.336	5.70	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.40	4.30	144	86
Cobi Johnson R 2026 · 5.57 FIP	23	SP-	5.57	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.55	19.9%	1.4%	41	-1.02	4.55	140	86
J.P. France R 2027 · 5.33 FIP	24	SP-	5.33	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.26	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.07	4.07	530	86
Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP-	4.78	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.31	14.0%	1.0%	106	+0.53	3.85	291	86
Austin Brice R 2026 · 4.61 FIP	23	SP-	4.61	18.5%	13.7%	2.4%	.295	3.70	19.0%	12.0%	222	-0.91	3.45	542	86

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.3	$12M	+$11M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+1.2	$12M	+$11M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.0	$10M	+$8M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.9	$5M	+$3M
Totals		$7M		$65M	+$58M