Chase Allsup — OGILVIE

Chase Allsup P Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 235 lbs A peak 0.4 · 2029

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 67 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.91

FIP5.91

K%18.4%

BB%19.3%

K-BB%-0.9%

ROS IP67

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4550

CTRL2020

CMD3040

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	100	456	102	72	3	92%	4.0	16.9%	18.2%	-1.3%	1.0%	5.33	4.55	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	100	456	102	72	3	92%	4.0	16.9%	18.2%	-1.3%	1.0%	5.33	4.55	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	100	456	102	72	3	92%	4.0	22.4%	15.8%	6.6%	0.7%	5.33	3.61	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BAL	12	12	67	283	52	55	8	100%	5.6	18.4%	19.3%	-0.9%	2.8%	5.91	5.91	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	16	16	91	383	74	64	11	100%	5.7	19.4%	16.6%	2.8%	2.8%	5.58	5.48	-0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	91	383	76	61	11	100%	6.1	20.0%	15.9%	4.1%	2.8%	5.40	5.35	-0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	89	377	76	59	11	100%	6.0	20.0%	15.6%	4.5%	2.9%	5.34	5.33	-0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	87	366	73	57	11	100%	6.2	20.0%	15.5%	4.5%	3.0%	5.36	5.39	-0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	83	350	69	55	11	100%	5.9	19.7%	15.7%	4.0%	3.1%	5.46	5.52	-0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	78	328	70	50	11	100%	6.0	21.4%	15.2%	6.1%	3.3%	5.44	5.43	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	39	165	32	27	5	100%	5.6	19.4%	16.6%	2.8%	2.8%	5.58	5.48	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	60	253	51	40	7	100%	6.0	20.0%	15.9%	4.1%	2.8%	5.40	5.35	-0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	69	291	58	45	8	100%	5.8	20.0%	15.6%	4.5%	2.9%	5.34	5.33	-0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	73	308	62	48	9	100%	6.1	20.0%	15.5%	4.5%	3.0%	5.36	5.39	-0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	72	304	60	48	9	100%	6.0	19.7%	15.7%	4.0%	3.1%	5.46	5.52	-0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	70	296	63	45	10	100%	5.8	21.4%	15.2%	6.1%	3.3%	5.44	5.43	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	383	1618	326	254	49	100%	6.0	20.1%	15.7%	4.5%	3.0%	5.42	5.03	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	170	133	26	100%	6.0	20.1%	15.7%	4.5%	3.0%	5.42	5.03	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		25	23	100	456	77	83	5	92%	4.0	16.9%	18.2%	-1.3%	1.0%	5.33	4.55	-3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	46	200	915	154	167	9	92%	4.0	16.9%	18.2%	-1.3%	1.0%	5.33	4.55	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Allsup (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.91	18.4%	19.3%	2.8%	—	5.39	19.8%	3.8%	271	-0.52	—	—	—
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	85
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	83
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	80
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	80
M.D. Johnson R 2021 · 5.30 FIP	24	SP	5.30	19.1%	17.3%	2.9%	.201	4.63	17.9%	7.9%	293	-0.67	3.52	395	79
Ryan Jensen R 2022 · 4.87 FIP	24	SP	4.87	18.8%	16.6%	2.3%	.252	4.34	23.7%	6.6%	150	-0.53	3.92	311	79
Andrew Thurman R 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	14.4%	16.9%	4.2%	.291	2.59	16.8%	9.6%	25	-3.72	2.59	264	77
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	77
Jamison Hill R 2023 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.2%	15.6%	1.8%	.248	5.44	16.0%	6.4%	84	+0.72	4.72	326	77
Jackson Fristoe R 2024 · 4.81 FIP	23	SP	4.81	18.8%	19.6%	1.5%	.266	6.79	13.5%	-4.0%	74	+1.98	4.81	139	77
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	77
Sam Wolff R 2016 · 5.72 FIP	25	SP	5.72	13.9%	15.0%	3.5%	.278	3.15	25.1%	15.5%	106	-2.57	2.66	178	76
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	76
Bryce Conley R 2019 · 5.40 FIP	24	SP-	5.40	17.0%	16.0%	3.1%	.227	4.28	17.4%	5.6%	142	-1.12	4.22	560	76
Matt Magill R 2013 · 6.30 FIP	23	SP	6.30	19.0%	19.7%	4.2%	.269	5.11	19.9%	7.7%	56	-1.19	3.40	287	76
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	75
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	75
Luis Quiñones R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	24	SP	4.82	26.6%	21.5%	2.2%	.290	4.79	22.7%	9.3%	231	-0.03	3.69	326	75
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	74
Osman Gutierrez R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	22	SP	5.88	13.9%	16.2%	3.5%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	189	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,251 pitcher careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	84	19.9%	16.2%	1.14	5.49
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Seth McClung ('09)	2.2	86	16.2%	13.1%	1.28	5.46
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68