Javier Francisco
SS ACL Giants| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | A/ROK2 orgs | 189 | .272/.425/.503 | 7 | 2 | 69 | — | .180/.290/.312 |
| 2024 | 21 | AAA/ASF | 154 | .200/.289/.296 | 0 | 2 | 26 | — | .156/.230/.228 |
| 2025 | 22 | ROKSF | 54 | .204/.278/.306 | 1 | 0 | -1 | — | .140/.204/.220 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBSF | 200 | .202/.264/.303 | 3 | 3 | 60 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBSF | 55 | .202/.265/.305 | 1 | 1 | 64 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 26 | MLBSF | 108 | .204/.268/.313 | 2 | 1 | 67 | -0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | — | 106 | 85 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 337 | 341 | 678 | 153 | 209 | 17 | 12 | 310 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Giants Black | — | 130 | 110 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 209 | 315 | 345 | 660 | 136 | 288 | 28 | 12 | 296 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | San Jose Giants | — | 33 | 29 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 312 | 345 | 657 | 103 | 318 | 24 | 9 | 290 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Giants Orange | — | 156 | 118 | 33 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 280 | 448 | 542 | 990 | 263 | 313 | 19 | 21 | 430 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 17 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 294 | 294 | 412 | 706 | 118 | 455 | 35 | 0 | 308 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | San Jose Giants | — | 137 | 118 | 22 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 36 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 186 | 289 | 280 | 569 | 93 | 262 | 26 | 9 | 263 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK | ACL Giants | — | 54 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 278 | 306 | 584 | 102 | 281 | 30 | 6 | 269 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants Black | — | 106 | 90 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 111 | 231 | 189 | 420 | 78 | 128 | 21 | 8 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Giants Black | — | 130 | 116 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 53 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 121 | 197 | 190 | 387 | 69 | 206 | 41 | 7 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 33 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 219 | 233 | 452 | 67 | 275 | 36 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Giants Orange | — | 156 | 131 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 42 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 183 | 305 | 328 | 633 | 145 | 219 | 27 | 13 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 17 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 294 | 294 | 412 | 706 | 118 | 449 | 41 | 0 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 137 | 122 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 51 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 139 | 222 | 205 | 427 | 66 | 228 | 37 | 7 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Giants | — | 54 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 140 | 204 | 220 | 424 | 80 | 207 | 41 | 4 | 166 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants Black | — | 106 | 90 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 111 | 231 | 189 | 420 | 78 | 130 | 21 | 8 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Giants Black | — | 106 | 85 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 337 | 341 | 678 | 153 | 209 | 17 | 12 | 310 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Giants Black | — | 130 | 116 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 53 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 121 | 197 | 190 | 387 | 69 | 203 | 41 | 7 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Giants Black | — | 130 | 110 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 209 | 315 | 345 | 660 | 136 | 288 | 28 | 12 | 296 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 189 | 161 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 53 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 186 | 296 | 317 | 612 | 130 | 243 | 28 | 12 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 189 | 147 | 40 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 36 | 38 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 272 | 425 | 503 | 928 | 231 | 314 | 20 | 19 | 406 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 154 | 139 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 58 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 158 | 230 | 230 | 460 | 72 | 265 | 38 | 6 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 154 | 135 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 42 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 200 | 289 | 296 | 586 | 96 | 284 | 27 | 8 | 268 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Giants | — | 54 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 140 | 204 | 220 | 424 | 80 | 222 | 41 | 4 | 166 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK RAW | ACL Giants | — | 54 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 278 | 306 | 584 | 102 | 281 | 30 | 6 | 269 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants Black | — | 106 | 91 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 110 | 231 | 187 | 418 | 77 | 128 | 21 | 8 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Giants Black | — | 130 | 118 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 53 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 119 | 197 | 186 | 383 | 68 | 206 | 41 | 7 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 189 | 162 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 53 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 185 | 296 | 315 | 611 | 130 | 229 | 28 | 12 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 154 | 140 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 58 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 157 | 230 | 229 | 459 | 71 | 252 | 38 | 6 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Giants | — | 54 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 140 | 204 | 220 | 424 | 80 | 207 | 41 | 4 | 166 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 154 | 140 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 58 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 157 | 230 | 229 | 459 | 71 | 252 | 38 | 6 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Giants | — | 54 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 140 | 204 | 220 | 424 | 80 | 207 | 41 | 4 | 166 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | SF | 0% | 200 | 183 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 62 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 264 | 303 | 567 | 101 | 285 | 31 | 6 | 257 | 60 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | SF | 30% | 184 | 168 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 56 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 268 | 313 | 581 | 107 | 286 | 30 | 7 | 262 | 64 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | SF | 44% | 244 | 223 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 74 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 208 | 271 | 320 | 592 | 113 | 286 | 30 | 7 | 267 | 67 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | SF | 49% | 271 | 247 | 52 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 81 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 273 | 322 | 595 | 114 | 286 | 30 | 7 | 268 | 68 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | SF | 51% | 287 | 262 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 85 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 273 | 322 | 596 | 113 | 286 | 30 | 7 | 269 | 68 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | SF | 51% | 287 | 262 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 85 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 209 | 273 | 321 | 594 | 112 | 285 | 30 | 7 | 268 | 67 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | SF | 30% | 55 | 50 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 202 | 265 | 305 | 570 | 104 | 282 | 31 | 7 | 258 | 64 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | SF | 44% | 108 | 99 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 268 | 313 | 581 | 108 | 282 | 31 | 6 | 262 | 67 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | SF | 49% | 133 | 121 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 40 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 205 | 270 | 314 | 584 | 109 | 282 | 30 | 7 | 264 | 68 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | SF | 51% | 148 | 135 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 205 | 270 | 314 | 584 | 109 | 282 | 30 | 7 | 264 | 68 | -6 | -0 | -0 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | SF | 51% | 148 | 135 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 270 | 313 | 583 | 108 | 281 | 30 | 7 | 263 | 67 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 592 | 540 | 110 | 21 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 178 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 204 | 269 | 307 | 576 | 104 | 283 | 30 | 7 | 263 | 56 | -23 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +13 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 593 | 120 | 23 | 4 | 10 | 44 | 195 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 202 | 268 | 305 | 573 | 103 | 281 | 30 | 7 | 263 | 56 | -25 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2011 | 1814 | 343 | 71 | 14 | 30 | 144 | 622 | 32 | 20 | 9 | 189 | 261 | 293 | 554 | 104 | 266 | 31 | 7 | 251 | 56 | -55 | +1 | -2 | +15 | +30 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 112 | 23 | 5 | 10 | 47 | 201 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 191 | 263 | 299 | 561 | 108 | 268 | 31 | 7 | 251 | 56 | -26 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 ROKACL Giants · 54 PAwOBA .262 → .166 (−97)K% 29.6% → 40.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.63% | ÷1.045 | ×1.440 | — | — | 40.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷1.070 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 3.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.70% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 2.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.21% | ÷1.042 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 16.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.06% | ÷1.001 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 4.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.128 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 2.02% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 108, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 109, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .262 → .166; ISO .102 → .061; BABIP .281 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ASan Jose Giants · 137 PAwOBA .261 → .198 (−63)K% 26.3% → 37.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.28% | ÷0.957 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.49% | ÷0.966 | ×0.690 | — | — | 6.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.92% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 2.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.63% | ÷0.961 | ×0.920 | ×0.971 | — | 13.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.98% | ÷1.012 | ×0.830 | ×0.971 | — | 8.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.971 | — | 1.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.959 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 92, 2B 102, 3B 100, K 91, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .261 → .198; ISO .093 → .068; BABIP .262 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 17 PAwOBA .299 → .276 (−24)K% 35.3% → 39.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.29% | ÷1.081 | ×1.200 | — | — | 39.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.36% | ÷0.976 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 36.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.052 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.091 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 8.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 118, K 116, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .299 → .276; ISO .118 → .103; BABIP .455 → .449. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Giants Orange · 156 PAwOBA .425 → .281 (−145)K% 19.2% → 26.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.23% | ÷1.036 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.15% | ÷1.022 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 12.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.92% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.004 | ×0.820 | ×0.979 | ×0.985 | 14.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.36% | ÷1.107 | ×0.720 | ×0.979 | ×0.985 | 7.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×0.979 | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.95% | ÷1.377 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 4.44% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 175, 1B 101, 2B 121, 3B 80, K 107, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .425 → .281; ISO .263 → .160; BABIP .313 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ASan Jose Giants · 33 PAwOBA .291 → .225 (−67)K% 24.2% → 35.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.24% | ÷0.935 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷1.049 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 16.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.005 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 11.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.890 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 110, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 87, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .291 → .225; ISO .103 → .080; BABIP .318 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Giants Black · 130 PAwOBA .293 → .190 (−103)K% 28.5% → 40.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.46% | ÷1.002 | ×1.440 | — | — | 40.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.54% | ÷0.983 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 7.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.54% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.18% | ÷1.081 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 13.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.85% | ÷0.921 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 5.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.74% | ÷0.940 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 1.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.74% | ÷1.073 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 1.98% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 116, 2B 84, 3B 88, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .293 → .190; ISO .136 → .090; BABIP .288 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Giants Black · 106 PAwOBA .309 → .195 (−113)K% 17.0% → 20.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.98% | ÷1.015 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.26% | ÷1.127 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 7.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.66% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 3.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.43% | ÷0.998 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 8.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.48% | ÷0.989 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 2.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.99% | ÷0.949 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 1.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.99% | ÷1.050 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 1.33% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 100, 2B 98, 3B 90, K 103, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .309 → .195; ISO .153 → .086; BABIP .209 → .128. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).