Ben Grable — OGILVIE

Ben Grable P Harrisburg Senators

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.16

FIP4.16

K%25.0%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%15.5%

ROS IP34

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	46	0	49	208	76	20	1	0%	1.1	29.3%	10.0%	19.3%	0.6%	2.92	2.21	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	46	0	49	208	76	20	1	0%	1.1	29.3%	10.0%	19.3%	0.6%	2.92	2.21	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	WSH	6	0	8	29	17	2	0	0%	1.3	58.6%	6.9%	51.7%	0.0%	1.17	-0.98	—
2026	24	AA RAW	WSH	33	0	36	148	53	12	1	0%	1.1	35.8%	8.1%	27.7%	0.7%	2.50	1.47	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	WSH	7	0	6	31	6	6	0	0%	0.8	19.4%	19.4%	0.0%	0.0%	7.94	3.92	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	WSH	47	0	49	206	52	19	6	0%	1.0	25.2%	9.2%	16.0%	2.9%	4.13	4.10	+0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	47	0	49	206	52	19	6	0%	1.0	25.3%	9.2%	16.1%	2.9%	4.12	4.09	+0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	46	0	48	204	51	19	6	0%	1.0	25.2%	9.2%	15.9%	3.0%	4.14	4.14	+0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	WSH	20	0	21	89	22	8	3	0%	1.1	25.2%	9.2%	16.0%	2.9%	4.13	4.10	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	31	0	33	139	35	13	4	0%	1.1	25.3%	9.2%	16.1%	2.9%	4.12	4.09	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	35	0	37	156	39	14	5	0%	1.1	25.2%	9.2%	15.9%	3.0%	4.14	4.14	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		87	0	92	387	98	36	11	0%	1.1	25.2%	9.2%	16.0%	2.9%	4.13	3.74	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	214	79	24	0%	1.1	25.2%	9.2%	16.0%	2.9%	4.13	3.74	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		46	0	49	208	61	21	1	0%	1.1	29.3%	10.0%	19.3%	0.6%	2.92	2.21	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		186	0	200	843	247	85	5	0%	1.1	29.3%	10.0%	19.3%	0.6%	2.92	2.21	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Grable (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.16	25.0%	9.6%	2.9%	—	4.11	25.2%	16.0%	146	-0.05	—	—	—
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	90
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	89
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.07	20.4%	11.3%	128	+2.55	3.52	207	89
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	88
Trey McLoughlin R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	23.7%	8.4%	3.0%	.295	4.59	20.8%	8.4%	121	+0.80	3.77	244	88
Tyler Schoff R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	25.2%	8.7%	3.0%	.315	4.26	16.1%	6.4%	75	+0.57	3.69	190	87
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.36	22.2%	13.5%	185	+0.63	3.73	223	87
Eli Villalobos R 2021 · 3.75 FIP	24	SU	3.75	28.1%	9.6%	3.3%	.337	4.88	22.7%	9.7%	153	+1.13	3.75	214	87
Lucas Wepf R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	27.6%	10.7%	2.7%	.323	3.97	26.2%	13.8%	136	+0.35	2.90	195	87
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	87
Zac Leigh R 2022 · 3.70 FIP	24	SU	3.70	28.5%	12.3%	2.6%	.270	4.45	21.6%	5.7%	130	+0.75	3.70	201	87
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	86
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	86
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	86
Steven Wilson R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	27.2%	10.7%	3.3%	.271	3.81	29.3%	19.9%	92	-0.18	3.64	328	86
Patrick Ruotolo R 2018 · 4.25 FIP	23	SU	4.25	27.5%	10.6%	3.9%	.263	3.60	28.9%	25.8%	37	-0.65	3.07	190	86
Randall Delgado R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	25	SU	3.61	23.7%	10.1%	2.2%	.284	3.78	20.3%	12.4%	167	+0.17	3.09	290	85
Neil Ramírez R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	26	SU	3.21	25.0%	10.0%	1.7%	.289	4.75	28.3%	17.6%	151	+1.54	3.21	220	85
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	85
Evan Gates R 2022 · 4.04 FIP	24	SU	4.04	23.8%	9.1%	3.3%	.175	3.90	21.1%	9.7%	195	-0.14	3.65	300	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	45	25.2%	9.3%	1.13	4.14
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41