Trey McLoughlin — OGILVIE

Trey McLoughlin P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%22.8%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	1	21	86	19	7	7	14%	3.0	16.0%	10.0%	6.1%	11.1%	6.10	9.10	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	1	21	86	19	7	7	14%	3.0	22.1%	8.1%	14.0%	8.1%	6.10	6.68	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	1	51	207	60	12	9	4%	2.0	21.7%	6.8%	14.9%	5.9%	3.71	5.38	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	1	51	207	60	12	9	4%	2.0	29.0%	5.8%	23.2%	4.3%	3.71	3.75	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	52	214	64	16	5	0%	1.5	23.7%	8.4%	15.4%	3.0%	2.79	3.79	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	52	214	64	16	5	0%	1.5	23.7%	8.4%	15.4%	3.0%	2.79	3.79	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	52	214	64	16	5	0%	1.5	29.9%	7.5%	22.4%	2.3%	2.79	2.81	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	42	172	50	21	4	0%	1.1	23.4%	13.9%	9.5%	2.1%	2.34	4.05	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	42	172	50	21	4	0%	1.1	23.4%	13.9%	9.5%	2.1%	2.34	4.05	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	42	172	50	21	4	0%	1.1	29.1%	12.2%	16.9%	2.3%	2.34	3.45	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	1	23	96	26	12	1	5%	1.2	21.8%	14.2%	7.6%	1.3%	3.91	3.77	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	1	23	96	26	12	1	5%	1.2	21.8%	14.2%	7.6%	1.3%	3.91	3.77	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	1	23	96	26	12	1	5%	1.2	27.1%	12.5%	14.6%	1.0%	3.91	2.97	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	42	0	66	279	65	31	10	0%	1.6	19.1%	10.9%	8.3%	4.2%	3.68	5.14	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	42	0	66	279	65	31	10	0%	1.6	19.1%	10.9%	8.3%	4.2%	3.68	5.14	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	HOU	17	0	27	118	27	12	6	0%	1.6	22.9%	10.2%	12.7%	5.1%	4.00	5.25	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	HOU	25	0	39	161	38	19	4	0%	1.6	23.6%	11.8%	11.8%	2.5%	3.46	3.97	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	HOU	19	0	20	84	19	10	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	12.1%	10.6%	2.9%	4.66	4.69	-0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	HOU	9	0	9	38	9	5	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	12.1%	10.6%	2.9%	4.66	4.69	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	22.7%	12.1%	10.6%	2.9%	4.66	4.31	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	94	24	0%	1.1	22.7%	12.1%	10.6%	2.9%	4.66	4.31	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		166	3	255	1054	224	108	45	2%	1.5	21.3%	10.3%	11.0%	4.2%	3.50	4.93	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	2	200	828	176	85	35	2%	1.5	21.3%	10.3%	11.0%	4.2%	3.50	4.93	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trey McLoughlin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	22.8%	12.3%	2.8%	—	4.69	22.7%	10.6%	20	+0.05	—	—	—
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	84
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	83
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	83
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	82
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.86	21.0%	9.6%	69	+0.93	3.84	181	82
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	81
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	81
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	81
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	81
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	81
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	81
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	81
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	81
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	80
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	80
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	79
Matt Wivinis R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	19.5%	12.2%	1.5%	.262	5.95	14.5%	6.2%	17	+2.11	1.61	124	79
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	79