Evan Gates — OGILVIE

Evan Gates P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 210 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

K%21.0%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	9	0	10	42	14	2	3	0%	1.1	33.3%	4.8%	28.6%	7.1%	4.50	4.81	—
2021	23	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Black	9	0	10	42	14	2	3	0%	1.1	33.3%	4.8%	28.6%	7.1%	4.50	4.80	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	55	214	70	19	5	0%	1.3	23.8%	9.1%	14.6%	3.3%	1.95	4.04	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	55	214	70	19	5	0%	1.3	32.7%	8.9%	23.8%	2.3%	1.95	2.77	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	42	0	55	262	72	30	3	0%	1.3	22.3%	12.6%	9.7%	1.5%	4.39	3.65	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	42	0	55	262	72	30	3	0%	1.3	22.3%	12.6%	9.7%	1.5%	4.39	3.65	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	42	0	55	262	72	30	3	0%	1.3	27.5%	11.5%	16.0%	1.1%	4.39	2.83	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	70	308	71	31	6	0%	1.8	18.9%	10.2%	8.7%	2.1%	4.22	3.96	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	70	308	71	31	6	0%	1.8	18.9%	10.2%	8.7%	2.1%	4.22	3.96	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	70	308	71	31	6	0%	1.8	23.1%	10.1%	13.0%	1.9%	4.22	3.51	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	41	1	70	288	80	31	7	2%	1.7	22.5%	11.8%	10.7%	2.5%	3.23	4.05	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	41	1	70	288	80	31	7	2%	1.7	22.5%	11.8%	10.7%	2.5%	3.23	4.05	—
2025	27	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	41	1	70	288	80	31	7	2%	1.7	27.8%	10.8%	17.0%	2.4%	3.23	3.44	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	43	2	62	273	59	25	8	5%	1.4	18.6%	8.9%	9.7%	3.4%	4.04	4.51	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	43	2	62	273	59	25	8	5%	1.4	18.6%	8.9%	9.7%	3.4%	4.04	4.51	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	PHI	40	2	59	248	57	20	7	5%	1.5	23.0%	8.1%	14.9%	2.8%	3.07	3.73	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	PHI	3	0	4	25	2	5	1	0%	1.2	8.0%	20.0%	-12.0%	4.0%	19.64	7.15	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	PHI	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.0%	11.5%	9.5%	2.8%	4.68	4.68	-0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	68	298	64	28	9	—	—	21.6%	9.3%	12.2%	2.9%	4.10	4.53	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	PHI	63	0	66	280	59	32	8	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.5%	9.5%	2.9%	4.72	4.77	-0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	PHI	59	0	62	263	55	30	8	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.6%	9.2%	3.1%	4.82	4.91	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	PHI	20	0	21	89	19	10	3	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.5%	9.5%	2.9%	4.72	4.77	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	PHI	30	0	32	135	28	16	4	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.6%	9.2%	3.1%	4.82	4.91	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	53	223	47	26	7	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.5%	9.3%	3.1%	4.78	4.48	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	99	27	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.5%	9.3%	3.1%	4.78	4.48	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		216	3	323	1387	297	144	37	1%	1.5	21.4%	10.4%	11.0%	2.7%	3.62	4.07	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	2	200	859	184	89	23	1%	1.5	21.4%	10.4%	11.0%	2.7%	3.62	4.07	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Evan Gates (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	21.0%	11.5%	2.8%	—	4.84	20.9%	9.4%	128	+0.16	—	—	—
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	89
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	87
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	86
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	86
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	86
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	85
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	85
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	84
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	84
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	84
Murphy Smith R 2016 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	19.3%	9.3%	1.6%	.245	4.43	13.6%	6.8%	145	+0.89	3.16	300	83
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	83
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	83
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	82
Logan Bawcom R 2017 · 4.06 FIP	28	SU	4.06	18.2%	10.7%	2.1%	.298	5.19	15.0%	6.4%	164	+1.13	3.73	399	82
Jhan Mariñez R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	28	SU	3.97	17.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.309	4.09	21.2%	13.3%	48	+0.12	3.16	253	81
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	81
Michael Mariot R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	22.6%	9.0%	2.1%	.327	4.79	20.9%	11.8%	74	+1.28	2.40	676	81
A.J. Schugel R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	28	SU	4.01	20.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.307	6.37	17.6%	10.6%	13	+2.36	2.80	299	81
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	20.9%	11.5%	1.14	4.74
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04