Evan Gates
P
Reading Fightin Phils
Age 28
RHP
6'0" / 210 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 69 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.61
FIP4.61
K%21.2%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%9.8%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 108 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | ACL Giants Black | 9 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.3% | 4.8% | 28.6% | 7.1% | 4.50 | 4.81 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | ACL Giants Black | 9 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.3% | 4.8% | 28.6% | 7.1% | 4.50 | 4.80 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 55 | 214 | 70 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 1.95 | 3.90 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 55 | 214 | 70 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 32.7% | 8.9% | 23.8% | 2.3% | 1.95 | 2.77 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 42 | 0 | 55 | 262 | 72 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.3% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 1.7% | 4.39 | 3.74 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 42 | 0 | 55 | 262 | 72 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.5% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 1.1% | 4.39 | 2.83 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 70 | 308 | 71 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.8 | 19.4% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 2.1% | 4.22 | 3.99 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 70 | 308 | 71 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.8 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 1.9% | 4.22 | 3.51 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 41 | 1 | 70 | 288 | 80 | 31 | 7 | 2% | 1.7 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 2.1% | 3.23 | 3.87 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 41 | 1 | 70 | 288 | 80 | 31 | 7 | 2% | 1.7 | 27.8% | 10.8% | 17.0% | 2.4% | 3.23 | 3.44 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 27 | 1 | 39 | 174 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 4% | 1.4 | 18.5% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | PHI | 66 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 62 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.61 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | PHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.61 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 108 | 467 | 98 | 49 | 13 | — | — | 21.0% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.51 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 21.2% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.61 | 4.23 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 63 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 59 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 59 | 0 | 62 | 263 | 55 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.77 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 28 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.77 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 48 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.42 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 178 | 96 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 200 | 2 | 299 | 1288 | 280 | 136 | 32 | 1% | 1.5 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 2.5% | 3.67 | 3.97 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 134 | 1 | 200 | 861 | 187 | 91 | 21 | 1% | 1.5 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 2.5% | 3.67 | 3.97 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Evan Gates (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 21.2% | 11.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.78 | 21.1% | 9.6% | 128 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 89 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 89 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 86 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 86 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 86 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 85 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 85 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 84 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 84 |
| Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 83 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 83 |
| Sam Dyson R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.43 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.77 | 18.9% | 11.9% | 187 | +0.34 | 2.67 | 333 | 83 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.99 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.16 | 21.2% | 13.3% | 48 | +0.17 | 3.23 | 253 | 83 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 83 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 82 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.18 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .307 | 6.22 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 13 | +2.04 | 2.75 | 299 | 82 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.27 | 18.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .298 | 5.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 164 | +0.82 | 3.76 | 399 | 82 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 82 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .327 | 4.77 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.31 | 2.32 | 676 | 82 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2029 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 66 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 1.11 | 4.68 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |