Colby Shade — OGILVIE

Colby ShadeOF Beloit Sky Carp

Age 24 R/R 6'0" / 205 lbs A+ HR -6%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION248 act + 165 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.180 / .280 / .270

PA165

HR2

SB14

K%34

BB%8

BABIP278

ISO90

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	22	A	2 teams	—	483	424	81	19	1	8	33	180	21	45	8	191	282	297	580	106	305	37	7	258	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A	2 teams	—	483	413	108	24	2	8	44	135	21	45	8	262	362	387	749	126	366	28	9	339	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	2 teams	—	365	308	52	11	3	1	40	128	16	53	7	169	297	234	530	65	285	35	11	246	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	2 teams	—	365	293	68	14	4	1	55	91	16	53	7	232	382	317	699	85	333	25	15	331	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	A+	MIA	—	248	218	47	7	1	6	18	92	10	30	1	216	305	339	644	124	336	37	7	279	72	-8	+6	+0	-1	+7	0.3
YTD	24	A+	MIA	—	248	211	59	9	1	8	25	68	10	30	1	280	382	445	828	166	372	27	10	370	141	+12	+6	+0	-1	+7	2.3
ROS	24	A+	MIA	0%	165	144	26	5	1	2	14	57	6	14	1	180	280	270	550	90	277	34	8	259	57	-8	+2	+0	-1	+5	-0.2
ROS	24	MLB	MIA	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						273	0	0	230	34	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	24	A+	MIA	—	249	219	47	7	1	6	18	92	10	30	1	215	304	338	642	123	333	37	7	279	72	-8	+6	+0	-1	+7	0.3
TOT	24	A+	MIA	—	413	362	73	12	2	8	32	149	16	44	2	201	295	312	607	110	312	36	8	271	66	-16	+8	+0	-2	+12	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	MIA	30%	363	318	59	11	1	6	31	122	11	26	3	186	281	283	564	97	277	34	9	264	61	-16	+4	+0	-2	+10	-0.4
2028	26	MLB	MIA	44%	402	353	69	12	2	8	34	132	12	29	3	195	288	309	597	113	278	33	8	271	65	-16	+5	+0	-2	+11	-0.2
2029	27	MLB	MIA	49%	417	366	72	13	2	8	36	135	12	30	3	197	290	309	599	112	279	32	9	273	67	-15	+5	+0	-3	+12	-0.1
2030	28	MLB	MIA	52%	423	371	72	13	2	8	37	136	12	29	3	194	288	305	593	111	279	32	9	274	68	-15	+5	-1	-3	+12	-0.2
2027	25	MLB	MIA	30%	110	97	17	3	0	2	9	37	3	8	1	175	266	268	534	93	272	34	8	239	41	-7	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.4
2028	26	MLB	MIA	44%	178	156	29	5	1	3	15	58	5	13	1	186	278	288	567	103	274	33	8	246	46	-11	+2	+0	-1	+5	-0.5
2029	27	MLB	MIA	49%	204	178	34	6	1	4	18	66	6	15	1	191	287	303	590	112	274	32	9	249	49	-12	+3	+0	-1	+6	-0.5
2030	28	MLB	MIA	52%	218	191	37	7	1	4	19	70	6	15	1	194	287	304	591	110	274	32	9	250	49	-13	+3	-0	-1	+6	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	711	623	117	21	3	13	61	231	20	51	4	188	281	294	575	106	272	32	9	247	47	-43	+9	-0	-4	+20	-1.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	570	107	19	3	12	56	211	18	47	4	188	281	295	576	107	271	32	9	247	47	-39	+8	-0	-4	+18	-1.7
Career	—			—	2618	2284	431	84	12	41	225	890	90	226	28	189	287	290	577	101	286	34	9	264	60	-117	+34	-1	-16	+74	-2.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	567	107	21	3	10	56	221	22	56	7	189	287	289	576	101	286	34	9	264	60	-29	+8	-0	-4	+18	-0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	22	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	137	121	28	5	1	3	13	38	3	7	3	231	321	364	685	132	312	28	9	312	97	-0	+0	—	—	+4	0.4
2024	22	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	346	292	80	19	1	5	31	97	18	38	5	274	378	397	776	123	389	28	9	350	126	+10	+6	—	—	+10	2.6
2025	23	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	70	53	9	2	0	0	11	20	5	5	2	170	362	208	570	38	273	29	16	289	80	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2025	23	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	295	240	59	12	4	1	44	71	11	48	5	246	386	342	728	96	345	24	15	341	120	+7	+8	—	—	+8	2.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#3Eric Young Jr.last yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,925 PA	9	1,925	13	161	245	312	332	-11	-8	1.2	1.7
	/162	664	4	56	245	312	332	-3.9	-2.7	0.4	pk7: 2
#4Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	712	14	50	194	284	303	-4	+0	-0.4	-0.2
	/162	664	13	47	194	284	303	-4.0	+0.0	-0.3	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colby Shade (OGILVIE)	24	40	30	60	60	201/295/312	110	312	8	44	36%	8%	66	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Wes Rogers 2019 · AA	25	43→48	38→40	58→65	41	207/257/286	79	287	5	32	29%	6%	47	-1.9	194/251/270	76	305	5	17	35%	7%	41	-2.3	158/224/216	58	272	3	12	40%	7%	14	-2.0
✕Terrance Gore 2015 · AAA	24	45→43	33→30	63→70	42	210/273/249	39	295	1	42	28%	6%	45	-2.1	220/271/261	41	299	1	49	25%	5%	46	-2.0	190/250/239	48	271	1	52	28%	6%	29	-1.0
✕Jayce Easley 2023 · A	23	44→45	38→30	62→65	54	205/302/281	75	283	5	39	27%	11%	67	-0.5	182/274/240	58	281	3	27	33%	10%	45	-2.1	150/252/183	33	244	1	30	34%	11%	20	-1.7
✕Tyler Tolbert 2022 · A	24	38→46	39→45	66→65	43	177/264/263	86	294	5	37	38%	9%	46	-2.0	200/257/301	101	289	7	38	31%	6%	52	-1.6	217/276/298	80	302	7	58	29%	6%	56	-0.6
✕Rafael Bautista 2017 · AA	24	51→53	35→30	61→60	43	242/284/300	58	297	3	36	20%	5%	62	-0.9	228/272/288	60	287	3	23	20%	5%	53	-1.5	222/261/287	65	276	5	13	21%	4%	45	-0.7
✕Kenny Wilson 2014 · AA	24	44→51	39→40	56→60	41	208/274/293	85	294	6	28	30%	6%	58	-1.2	223/277/310	87	312	5	27	28%	6%	62	-0.9	195/262/289	94	302	8	22	35%	6%	49	-0.7
✕Delvin Zinn 2022 · AA	25	40→44	37→30	56→55	40	196/245/263	67	267	5	32	28%	6%	37	-2.7	190/257/265	75	276	5	26	31%	7%	43	-2.2	115/212/152	37	189	0	39	35%	8%	-3	-1.2
✕Josh Prince 2012 · A	24	46→49	38→40	55→60	44	221/269/297	75	277	5	31	22%	6%	55	-1.4	208/275/297	89	279	7	28	26%	8%	59	-1.1	220/298/303	83	297	8	28	26%	10%	67	-0.3
✕Darren Ford 2009 · A	23	45→53	37→45	61→65	44	213/276/287	74	308	5	38	31%	8%	56	-1.3	220/278/320	100	310	8	33	29%	7%	66	-0.6	223/278/332	109	308	9	36	29%	6%	65	-0.4
✕Adam Engel 2016 · A	24	42→48	39→50	61→60	38	203/255/284	81	299	6	33	33%	6%	46	-2.0	204/262/314	110	293	8	25	31%	6%	57	-1.2	224/280/353	129	300	12	21	28%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Derrick Robinson 2012 · AA	24	46→50	35→40	60→65	42	217/258/271	54	281	3	42	23%	5%	43	-2.2	226/278/285	59	297	3	24	23%	7%	56	-1.3	237/289/277	40	305	1	22	21%	7%	56	-0.8
✕Rico Noel 2012 · A	23	41→51	37→30	62→65	43	198/264/273	75	258	5	31	24%	6%	48	-1.9	227/289/278	51	330	2	44	29%	7%	59	-1.1	223/285/267	44	315	1	49	27%	6%	52	-1.0
✕David Hamilton 2022 · AA	24	42→41	42→50	65→70	46	207/269/319	112	274	8	36	27%	8%	62	-0.9	208/276/333	125	274	13	50	28%	8%	69	-0.4	220/282/351	131	271	15	58	24%	8%	74	-0.0
✕Johneshwy Fargas 2019 · A	24	44→52	42→45	58→65	40	218/269/322	105	278	10	35	25%	5%	63	-0.9	215/268/316	101	286	10	38	27%	5%	60	-1.0	198/256/298	99	269	11	46	29%	5%	48	-1.0
✕Delvi Cid 2013 · A	24	43→52	38→30	59→60	35	203/253/284	81	315	6	35	36%	5%	46	-2.0	209/265/306	97	314	9	22	34%	6%	56	-1.3	191/249/261	70	280	8	24	33%	5%	35	-0.8
✕Mike Antico 2023 · AA	25	41→42	45	62→60	44	206/273/330	124	274	12	36	29%	8%	67	-0.5	214/277/336	122	294	13	34	30%	7%	70	-0.3	214/278/335	120	296	13	35	31%	7%	67	-0.4
✕Eddy Diaz 2023 · A	23	45→53	36→30	56→65	38	211/265/278	67	296	4	32	28%	5%	49	-1.8	193/252/269	76	269	6	15	29%	6%	42	-2.3	131/201/175	43	180	4	2	28%	6%	-5	-1.8
✕Steward Berroa 2023 · AA	24	40→47	44→45	69→65	45	196/271/317	121	283	11	46	33%	9%	63	-0.9	218/289/328	110	324	10	46	33%	9%	72	-0.2	223/304/322	99	313	9	48	29%	10%	75	+0.0
✕Braulio Vasquez 2022 · A	23	40	40→45	55→65	40	189/270/275	87	300	7	31	37%	8%	53	-1.5	224/290/323	99	311	6	26	28%	7%	72	-0.2	245/309/346	101	327	3	32	24%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Max Schuemann 2022 · AAA	25	44→47	40→45	59→60	44	212/288/308	96	283	8	32	26%	7%	68	-0.5	223/314/344	121	303	12	25	28%	9%	89	+0.9	220/317/335	116	299	12	22	28%	10%	86	+0.6