Colby Shade — OGILVIE

Colby ShadeOF Beloit Sky Carp

Age 24 R/R 6'0" / 205 lbs A+ HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION373 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP262

ISO81

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	22	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	137	121	28	5	1	3	13	38	3	7	3	231	321	364	685	132	312	28	9	312	97	-0	+0	—	—	+3	0.3
2024	22	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	346	292	80	19	1	5	31	97	18	38	5	274	378	397	776	123	389	28	9	350	123	+9	+6	—	—	+7	2.3
2025	23	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	70	53	9	2	0	0	11	20	5	5	2	170	362	208	570	38	273	29	16	289	82	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.0
2025	23	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	295	240	59	12	4	1	44	71	11	48	5	246	386	342	728	96	345	24	15	341	117	+6	+8	—	—	+6	2.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	22	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	137	125	22	4	1	2	9	51	3	7	3	176	248	272	520	96	267	37	7	232	43	-9	+0	—	—	+3	-0.6
2024	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	346	299	60	15	1	4	24	134	18	38	5	201	299	298	597	97	324	39	7	267	67	-14	+6	—	—	+7	-0.1
2025	23	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	70	57	9	2	0	0	7	24	5	5	2	158	304	193	497	35	251	34	10	232	43	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2025	23	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	295	252	46	9	3	1	32	99	11	48	5	183	302	254	556	71	290	34	11	254	58	-15	+8	—	—	+6	-0.1
2024	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	483	424	82	19	1	7	33	184	21	45	8	193	285	292	577	99	318	38	7	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	483	413	108	24	2	8	44	135	21	45	8	262	362	387	749	126	366	28	9	339	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	365	309	54	11	3	1	39	123	16	53	7	175	299	239	539	65	286	34	11	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	365	293	68	14	4	1	55	91	16	53	7	232	382	317	699	85	333	25	15	331	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	483	426	82	19	1	7	33	184	21	45	8	192	285	291	576	99	308	38	7	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	365	307	54	11	3	1	39	123	16	53	7	176	299	241	540	65	283	34	11	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	483	426	82	19	1	7	33	184	21	45	8	192	285	291	576	99	308	38	7	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	365	307	54	11	3	1	39	123	16	53	7	176	299	241	540	65	283	34	11	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	MIA	—	373	331	68	11	1	11	26	131	13	49	1	205	289	344	634	139	297	35	7	280	76	-11	+9	+0	-2	+8	0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ RAW	MIA	—	265	226	63	9	2	9	26	72	11	34	1	279	380	456	836	177	367	27	10	372	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	AA RAW	MIA	—	108	94	23	5	0	6	11	28	2	15	0	245	336	489	826	245	279	26	10	360	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	24	A+ MLE	MIA	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	125	222	125	347		269	33	11	262	63	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	24	A+ MLE	MIA	—	382	339	69	11	1	11	27	134	13	50	1	204	288	339	627	136	294	35	7	279	75	-11	+10	+0	-2	+8	0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIA	30%	361	319	61	11	2	7	29	119	10	28	2	191	279	304	583	113	272	33	8	268	67	-14	+5	+0	-2	+8	-0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	44%	401	354	69	12	2	9	33	129	11	32	2	195	284	316	600	121	274	32	8	273	71	-14	+6	+0	-2	+9	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIA	49%	416	367	72	13	2	9	35	132	11	33	2	196	286	316	602	120	275	32	8	276	73	-13	+6	+0	-2	+9	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	422	372	73	13	2	9	36	134	11	32	2	196	286	315	601	118	275	32	9	276	73	-14	+6	-1	-3	+9	-0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIA	51%	418	369	72	13	2	9	35	133	11	29	2	195	284	314	599	119	274	32	8	274	72	-14	+5	-1	-3	+9	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIA	30%	109	96	17	3	0	2	9	36	3	9	1	177	269	271	539	94	265	33	8	240	67	-4	+1	+0	-1	+2	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	44%	177	155	30	5	1	4	15	57	5	14	1	194	286	316	602	123	266	32	8	246	71	-6	+2	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIA	49%	204	180	34	6	1	4	17	65	5	16	1	189	277	300	577	111	267	32	8	249	73	-7	+3	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	217	191	37	6	1	5	18	69	6	16	1	194	284	314	598	120	267	32	8	250	73	-7	+3	-0	-1	+5	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIA	51%	215	189	35	6	1	4	18	69	6	15	1	185	277	291	568	106	266	32	8	248	72	-7	+3	-1	-1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	922	811	153	26	4	19	77	296	25	70	5	189	279	301	580	112	267	32	8	248	67	-31	+12	-1	-6	+20	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	572	107	18	3	13	54	209	18	49	4	187	278	297	576	110	266	32	8	248	67	-22	+8	-1	-4	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2875	2522	484	92	14	51	241	957	91	253	25	192	286	300	586	108	284	33	8	268	67	-69	+27	-2	-12	+44	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	570	110	21	3	12	54	216	21	57	6	193	287	304	590	111	284	33	8	268	67	-22	+9	-1	-4	+14	-0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Delino DeShieldslast yr '21 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,114 PA	3.2	2,114	19	111	246	327	342	+1	+6	5.3	5.3
/162	664	6	35	+0.4	+1.8	1.7	pk7: 5
#2Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	3.1	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
/162	664	4	44	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5
#3Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	3	86	251	310	309	+5	+12	2.7	2.7
/162	664	1	37	+2.4	+5.1	1.2	pk7: 3
#6Eric Young Jr.last yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,925 PA	2.9	1,925	13	161	245	312	332	-11	-8	1.2	1.6
/162	664	4	56	-3.9	-2.7	0.4	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.4	925	20	70	196	282	315	-6	+0	0.1	0.1
/162	664	15	50	-4.0	+0.0	0.0	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colby Shade (OGILVIE)	24	40	30	60	60	182/274/287	105	269	6	32	34%	8%	63	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Terrance Gore 2015 · AAA	24	44→42	33→30	63→70	42	203/268/241	38	292	1	42	29%	6%	48	-2.5	223/276/264	41	304	1	49	25%	6%	55	-1.9	193/256/240	47	276	1	52	28%	6%	40	-1.0
✕Tyler Tolbert 2022 · A	24	39→49	39→45	67→65	43	181/268/271	90	295	6	37	37%	9%	56	-1.9	205/264/301	96	296	6	38	31%	6%	60	-1.6	227/289/306	79	310	6	60	27%	6%	68	-0.5
✕Jayce Easley 2023 · A	23	44→46	38→30	62→65	54	208/306/284	77	287	5	39	27%	12%	73	-0.6	185/278/244	59	284	3	27	32%	10%	53	-2.1	156/258/188	33	250	1	30	34%	11%	33	-1.6
✕Wes Rogers 2018 · A	24	48→51	39→40	63→65	44	230/284/325	95	300	6	39	24%	6%	73	-0.6	202/256/284	82	293	6	24	31%	6%	53	-2.1	178/233/244	65	267	5	20	33%	6%	33	-2.0
✕Steward Berroa 2023 · AA	24	39→49	43→45	68→65	44	192/265/310	118	278	10	46	33%	9%	63	-1.4	217/291/323	106	319	9	46	32%	9%	75	-0.5	221/299/315	94	323	7	52	31%	9%	75	-0.3
✕Braulio Vasquez 2022 · A	23	41	40	55→65	40	192/273/283	91	301	8	31	36%	8%	61	-1.5	219/285/318	99	305	7	26	28%	7%	72	-0.7	228/293/324	96	308	4	32	25%	7%	73	-0.3
✕Darren Ford 2009 · A	23	45→53	37→45	61→65	44	213/276/287	74	308	5	38	31%	8%	61	-1.5	222/280/319	97	311	7	33	29%	7%	70	-0.9	227/283/330	104	311	8	36	28%	6%	70	-0.6
✕Josh Prince 2012 · A	24	46→48	37→40	55→60	44	220/268/292	72	276	5	31	22%	6%	59	-1.7	212/279/300	88	278	7	28	24%	8%	65	-1.2	221/297/300	79	291	7	28	25%	9%	70	-0.4
✕Adam Engel 2016 · A	24	43→48	39→50	61→60	39	206/259/291	85	296	6	33	31%	6%	55	-1.9	204/263/313	109	290	8	25	31%	6%	62	-1.4	223/283/355	132	299	13	23	29%	5%	77	-0.2
✕Jorge Mateo 2018 · AA	23	42→48	43→50	63→65	37	204/248/326	122	291	9	34	32%	5%	59	-1.6	200/239/316	116	294	8	24	33%	4%	53	-2.1	213/255/343	130	274	13	52	27%	5%	65	-0.4
✕Mike Antico 2023 · AA	25	41→43	44→45	62→60	44	204/273/323	120	275	11	36	29%	8%	69	-0.9	216/278/333	117	291	12	34	28%	7%	73	-0.6	217/280/331	115	292	12	35	28%	7%	70	-0.7
✕Kenny Wilson 2014 · AA	24	46→51	38→40	57→60	42	215/281/300	85	297	5	28	28%	6%	67	-1.1	226/281/311	85	309	5	27	27%	6%	68	-1.0	200/268/290	91	305	7	22	34%	7%	57	-0.7
✕Delvin Zinn 2022 · AA	25	40→44	37→30	56→55	40	195/244/261	67	264	5	32	28%	6%	43	-2.8	190/255/265	75	270	5	26	29%	7%	49	-2.4	118/211/155	36	182	0	39	31%	8%	8	-1.2
✕Johneshwy Fargas 2019 · A	24	44→52	42→45	58→65	40	217/268/316	99	276	10	35	25%	5%	65	-1.2	216/270/310	94	284	9	38	26%	5%	64	-1.3	198/256/288	89	267	9	46	28%	5%	52	-1.2
✕Rafael Bautista 2017 · AA	24	53→55	35→30	61→60	44	248/291/307	59	301	3	36	18%	5%	70	-0.8	231/275/292	61	289	3	23	20%	5%	61	-1.5	222/262/283	61	278	4	13	21%	4%	50	-0.8
✕David Hamilton 2022 · AA	24	43→42	42→50	65→70	46	209/270/321	112	273	8	36	26%	8%	67	-1.1	209/277/330	121	275	12	50	27%	8%	72	-0.7	226/287/352	126	279	13	56	23%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Rico Noel 2013 · A	24	48→55	34→30	62→65	42	219/284/268	49	319	2	45	30%	7%	59	-1.6	228/289/280	52	324	2	43	28%	7%	64	-1.3	227/290/274	47	317	1	49	26%	7%	61	-0.9
✕Duke Ellis 2023 · AA	25	45→50	40	60→80	38	211/269/296	85	324	8	37	35%	6%	61	-1.5	217/277/307	90	325	8	53	33%	7%	66	-1.1	232/283/327	96	324	8	91	29%	6%	70	-0.4
✕Cooper Bowman 2023 · A	23	38→43	43→45	59→60	43	188/270/295	107	285	11	31	36%	8%	62	-1.4	205/277/320	115	284	11	35	30%	8%	70	-0.9	202/274/318	116	272	11	40	28%	8%	66	-0.7
✕Michael Siani 2023 · MLB	24	42→45	42→40	59→60	47	207/274/314	107	265	10	32	25%	8%	68	-1.0	204/276/296	92	278	8	28	27%	8%	63	-1.3	193/269/273	81	270	7	30	29%	9%	55	-1.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps