Colby Shade
OF Beloit Sky Carp| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+/AMIA | 483 | .262/.362/.387 | 8 | 45 | 56 | — | .195/.280/.286 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA/A+MIA | 365 | .232/.382/.317 | 1 | 53 | 57 | — | .181/.305/.245 |
| 2026 | 24 | AA/A+MIA | 378 | .265/.363/.458 | 15 | 49 | 74 | — | .208/.288/.359 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBMIA | 1 | .177/.268/.277 | 0 | 0 | 62 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 26 | MLBMIA | 73 | .180/.270/.283 | 1 | 5 | 64 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 137 | 121 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 38 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 231 | 321 | 364 | 685 | 132 | 312 | 28 | 9 | 312 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 346 | 292 | 80 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 97 | 18 | 38 | 5 | 274 | 378 | 397 | 776 | 123 | 389 | 28 | 9 | 350 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 70 | 53 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 170 | 362 | 208 | 570 | 38 | 273 | 29 | 16 | 289 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 295 | 240 | 59 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 44 | 71 | 11 | 48 | 5 | 246 | 386 | 342 | 728 | 96 | 345 | 24 | 15 | 341 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 113 | 99 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 29 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 232 | 321 | 465 | 786 | 232 | 262 | 26 | 10 | 344 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 265 | 226 | 63 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 72 | 11 | 34 | 1 | 279 | 380 | 456 | 836 | 177 | 367 | 27 | 10 | 372 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 137 | 125 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 48 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 184 | 255 | 280 | 535 | 96 | 268 | 35 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 346 | 302 | 60 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 128 | 18 | 38 | 5 | 199 | 290 | 288 | 578 | 89 | 309 | 37 | 6 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 70 | 57 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 158 | 304 | 193 | 497 | 35 | 253 | 34 | 10 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 295 | 252 | 47 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 93 | 11 | 48 | 5 | 187 | 305 | 258 | 563 | 71 | 288 | 32 | 11 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 113 | 103 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 35 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 184 | 250 | 369 | 619 | 184 | 225 | 31 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 265 | 234 | 51 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 91 | 11 | 34 | 1 | 218 | 304 | 355 | 659 | 137 | 305 | 34 | 7 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 483 | 426 | 83 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 176 | 21 | 45 | 8 | 195 | 282 | 293 | 576 | 99 | 309 | 36 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 483 | 413 | 108 | 24 | 2 | 8 | 44 | 135 | 21 | 45 | 8 | 262 | 362 | 387 | 749 | 126 | 366 | 28 | 9 | 339 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 365 | 309 | 56 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 39 | 117 | 16 | 53 | 7 | 181 | 305 | 246 | 551 | 65 | 288 | 32 | 11 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 365 | 293 | 68 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 55 | 91 | 16 | 53 | 7 | 232 | 382 | 317 | 699 | 85 | 333 | 25 | 15 | 331 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 378 | 337 | 70 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 127 | 13 | 49 | 1 | 208 | 288 | 350 | 638 | 142 | 292 | 34 | 7 | 277 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 378 | 325 | 86 | 14 | 2 | 15 | 37 | 101 | 13 | 49 | 1 | 265 | 363 | 458 | 821 | 194 | 335 | 27 | 10 | 364 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 483 | 428 | 83 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 176 | 21 | 45 | 8 | 194 | 282 | 292 | 574 | 98 | 297 | 36 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 365 | 307 | 56 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 39 | 117 | 16 | 53 | 7 | 182 | 305 | 248 | 553 | 65 | 281 | 32 | 11 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 378 | 337 | 70 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 127 | 13 | 49 | 1 | 208 | 288 | 350 | 638 | 142 | 281 | 34 | 7 | 277 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 483 | 428 | 83 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 176 | 21 | 45 | 8 | 194 | 282 | 292 | 574 | 98 | 297 | 36 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 365 | 307 | 56 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 39 | 117 | 16 | 53 | 7 | 182 | 305 | 248 | 553 | 65 | 281 | 32 | 11 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 378 | 337 | 70 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 127 | 13 | 49 | 1 | 208 | 288 | 350 | 638 | 142 | 281 | 34 | 7 | 277 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIA | 0% | 380 | 335 | 62 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 121 | 11 | 28 | 2 | 183 | 273 | 290 | 563 | 106 | 259 | 32 | 8 | 260 | 62 | -17 | +5 | +0 | -2 | +8 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIA | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 177 | 268 | 277 | 545 | 100 | 250 | 0 | 0 | 253 | 62 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIA | 30% | 240 | 212 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 75 | 7 | 17 | 2 | 187 | 276 | 296 | 572 | 110 | 260 | 31 | 8 | 263 | 64 | -10 | +3 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIA | 30% | 73 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 180 | 270 | 283 | 553 | 103 | 252 | 32 | 8 | 256 | 64 | -3 | +1 | +0 | -0 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 73 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 169 | 260 | 246 | 506 | 77 | 244 | 32 | 8 | 256 | 62 | -3 | +1 | +0 | -0 | +2 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 579 | 98 | 18 | 0 | 9 | 53 | 205 | 18 | 45 | 0 | 169 | 260 | 247 | 507 | 78 | 244 | 32 | 8 | 256 | 62 | -28 | +9 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1676 | 1469 | 283 | 52 | 9 | 28 | 131 | 562 | 63 | 179 | 19 | 193 | 287 | 297 | 584 | 105 | 287 | 34 | 8 | 260 | 62 | -20 | +5 | +0 | -3 | +10 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 570 | 109 | 20 | 3 | 11 | 51 | 218 | 24 | 69 | 7 | 191 | 285 | 295 | 580 | 104 | 285 | 34 | 8 | 260 | 62 | -28 | +8 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 265 PAwOBA .365 → .280 (−85)K% 27.2% → 34.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.17% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 34.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 6.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.15% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 3.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.958 | ×0.978 | 24.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.958 | ×0.978 | 4.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.958 | ×0.978 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 4.57% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .365 → .280; ISO .177 → .132; BABIP .367 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 113 PAwOBA .338 → .269 (−69)K% 25.7% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.66% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 6.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.77% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.956 | ×0.998 | 15.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.956 | ×0.998 | 6.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×0.956 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 6.84% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .338 → .269; ISO .232 → .185; BABIP .262 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 295 PAwOBA .334 → .257 (−77)K% 24.1% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.07% | ÷0.972 | ×1.270 | — | — | 31.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.92% | ÷0.978 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 10.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.73% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 2.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.85% | ÷1.028 | ×0.920 | ×0.959 | ×0.988 | 21.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.10% | ÷0.961 | ×0.810 | ×0.959 | ×0.988 | 5.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.959 | ×0.988 | 1.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.59% | ÷1.006 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.46% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 94, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .334 → .257; ISO .096 → .073; BABIP .345 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 70 PAwOBA .284 → .233 (−50)K% 28.6% → 35.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.71% | ÷1.045 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 10.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 7.14% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 6.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.21% | ÷1.017 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 19.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.06% | ÷0.955 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.012 | 5.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.941 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.103 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 88, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .284 → .233; ISO .038 → .037; BABIP .273 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 346 PAwOBA .344 → .256 (−88)K% 28.0% → 37.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.03% | ÷1.029 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.96% | ÷0.993 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 6.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.20% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 4.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.21% | ÷1.065 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 22.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.74% | ÷1.032 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 7.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.51% | ÷0.960 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 0.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷0.888 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 2.29% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 113, 2B 106, 3B 92, K 106, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .344 → .256; ISO .123 → .095; BABIP .389 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 137 PAwOBA .304 → .237 (−67)K% 27.7% → 34.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.74% | ÷1.014 | ×1.270 | — | — | 34.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.49% | ÷0.998 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.19% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.89% | ÷1.034 | ×0.920 | ×0.987 | ×0.998 | 20.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.02% | ÷0.962 | ×0.810 | ×0.987 | ×0.998 | 4.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.20% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.987 | ×0.998 | 0.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.61% | ÷0.935 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.09% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 107, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 103, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .304 → .237; ISO .132 → .103; BABIP .312 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).