Ross Dunn
P
FCL Twins
Age 24
LHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION4 act + 43 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103113vR 122
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
K%22.2%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%12.4%
ROS IP43
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 19 | 16 | 61 | 283 | 60 | 30 | 8 | 84% | 3.2 | 15.7% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 6.46 | 5.54 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 19 | 16 | 61 | 283 | 60 | 30 | 8 | 84% | 3.2 | 21.2% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 6.46 | 4.31 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 3.3 | 7.1% | 14.3% | -7.1% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 4.31 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 3.3 | 7.1% | 14.3% | -7.1% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 4.30 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | ROK | FCL Twins | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | — | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIN | 8 | 8 | 43 | 181 | 40 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.2% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.54 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 47 | 195 | 43 | 18 | 6 | — | — | 22.1% | 9.1% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 7 | 7 | 43 | 183 | 42 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 7 | 7 | 43 | 183 | 42 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 7 | 7 | 43 | 180 | 41 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 7 | 7 | 41 | 175 | 40 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 3 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 19 | 19 | 115 | 486 | 111 | 46 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.07 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 193 | 80 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 22 | 19 | 69 | 311 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 86% | 3.1 | 15.6% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 6.03 | 5.29 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 55 | 200 | 906 | 141 | 109 | 33 | 86% | 3.1 | 15.6% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 6.03 | 5.29 | +0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ross Dunn (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 3.1% | — | 4.41 | 22.8% | 13.5% | 130 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 85 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 81 |
| Evan Lee L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.00 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.48 | 21.0% | 2.7% | 52 | +0.48 | 3.84 | 129 | 79 |
| Jojo Ingrassia L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.97 | 26.7% | 13.8% | 2.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.60 | 112 | 74 |
| Jack Choate L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.11 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.4% | .317 | 3.84 | 24.2% | 6.1% | 32 | -0.27 | 2.75 | 315 | 74 |
| Brady Basso L 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.17 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 179 | +0.18 | 2.24 | 269 | 72 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.24 | 24.8% | 14.2% | 2.6% | .382 | 4.08 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 156 | -0.16 | 2.44 | 171 | 72 |
| Jake Bennett L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.48 | 16.4% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .276 | 2.79 | 21.0% | 16.1% | 87 | -0.69 | 2.79 | 219 | 71 |
| Andrew Sears L 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.45 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 1.8% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 232 | 71 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 71 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 70 |
| Jordan Wicks L 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.99 | 21.0% | 9.4% | 4.5% | .306 | 3.93 | 19.3% | 11.4% | 144 | -1.06 | 2.93 | 431 | 70 |
| Zach Thornton L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 69 |
| Ryan Magdic L 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.64 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .314 | 3.18 | 21.5% | 16.7% | 54 | -0.46 | 3.18 | 150 | 69 |
| Justin Steele L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.95 | 20.0% | 12.9% | 1.7% | .400 | 3.63 | 24.2% | 14.1% | 203 | -0.32 | 2.71 | 785 | 69 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.84 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .315 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | -0.07 | 4.77 | 154 | 69 |
| Emmett Olson L 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.58 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 137 | 68 |
| Max Fried L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.50 | 24.6% | 11.9% | 1.8% | .326 | 3.21 | 23.9% | 17.4% | 387 | -0.29 | 2.56 | 1,397 | 67 |
| Michel Gelabert L 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.58 | 18.7% | 12.1% | 2.8% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 107 | 67 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.83 | 21.5% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .269 | 4.13 | 20.5% | 7.4% | 96 | -0.70 | 3.84 | 249 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 43 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 1.20 | 4.46 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |