Ross Dunn
P
Cedar Rapids Kernels
+0.3
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.2%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%12.4%
IP61
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 19 | 16 | 61 | 283 | 60 | 30 | 8 | 15.7% | 12.5% | 3.8% | 6.46 | 5.47 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 57 | 25 | 8 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 59 | 25 | 8 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 60 | 24 | 8 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 60 | 24 | 8 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 59 | 24 | 8 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 57 | 24 | 8 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 55 | 23 | 8 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.53 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 56 | — | 56 | 234 | 52 | 23 | 8 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 50 | 22 | 8 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.69 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 47 | 22 | 7 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.73 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 44 | 21 | 7 | 21.4% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 4.83 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 41 | 20 | 7 | 21.1% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 4.94 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 37 | 19 | 7 | 20.6% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 5.07 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 20 | 17 | 65 | 297 | 45 | 37 | 11 | 15.3% | 12.6% | 3.7% | 6.40 | 5.42 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 53 | 200 | 919 | 139 | 114 | 34 | 15.3% | 12.6% | 3.7% | 6.40 | 5.42 | -0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ross Dunn (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 3.1% | — | 4.40 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 186 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .298 | 4.50 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.05 | 3.50 | 300 | 93 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.34 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.09 | 4.34 | 110 | 92 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .260 | 4.75 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.88 | 256 | 92 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.86 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.86 | 176 | 91 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 90 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.91 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .326 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.70 | 1.71 | 206 | 90 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .268 | 3.50 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.76 | 1.84 | 238 | 89 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.93 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.11 | 2.69 | 271 | 89 |
| Chris Cotton L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.17 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.49 | 3.68 | 128 | 88 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.57 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .275 | 4.89 | 19.5% | 3.9% | 45 | +1.32 | 3.57 | 146 | 87 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.38 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .261 | 5.05 | 14.2% | 10.7% | 51 | +0.67 | 4.31 | 201 | 87 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.60 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 201 | 87 |
| Colton Johnson L 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 87 |
| Andrew Walling L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.07 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .281 | 3.14 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 42 | -0.93 | 3.14 | 151 | 85 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.62 | 21.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .360 | 3.10 | 21.2% | 12.6% | 91 | -0.52 | 2.14 | 246 | 85 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2028 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 85 |
| Greg Nappo L 2028 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 85 |
| Diego Barrera L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .310 | 3.67 | 18.5% | 9.7% | 44 | -0.05 | 3.67 | 111 | 84 |
| Kirby Snead L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.03 | 20.7% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .318 | 3.09 | 24.6% | 15.6% | 98 | -0.94 | 2.11 | 343 | 84 |
| James Paxton L 2028 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2033 | Arb-1 | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Arb-2 | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.3M |
| 2035 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $4M | $7M | +$3M | ||