Ross Dunn — OGILVIE

Ross Dunn P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 24 LHP 6'3" / 225 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%19.3%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%7.6%

ROS IP43

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	19	16	61	283	60	30	8	84%	3.2	15.7%	12.5%	3.2%	3.8%	6.46	5.46	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	19	16	61	283	60	30	8	84%	3.2	15.7%	12.5%	3.2%	3.8%	6.46	5.46	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	19	16	61	283	60	30	8	84%	3.2	21.2%	10.6%	10.6%	2.8%	6.46	4.31	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	1	1	3	14	1	2	0	100%	3.3	7.1%	14.3%	-7.1%	0.0%	5.40	4.31	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	1	1	3	14	1	2	0	100%	3.3	7.1%	14.3%	-7.1%	0.0%	5.40	4.31	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	1	1	3	14	1	2	0	100%	3.3	7.1%	14.3%	-7.1%	0.0%	5.40	4.30	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	16	5	24	100	25	11	0	31%	1.5	19.2%	12.8%	6.5%	0.0%	4.18	3.09	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	16	5	24	100	25	11	0	31%	1.5	19.2%	12.8%	6.5%	0.0%	4.18	3.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	MIN	3	3	6	21	4	1	0	100%	2.0	19.0%	4.8%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.09	—
2026	24	A RAW	MIN	1	1	1	7	3	2	0	100%	1.0	42.9%	28.6%	14.3%	0.0%	18.00	3.10	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	MIN	12	1	17	72	18	8	0	8%	1.4	25.0%	11.1%	13.9%	0.0%	4.86	2.40	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIN	53	0	56	236	48	25	7	0%	1.1	20.3%	10.8%	9.5%	3.0%	4.85	4.80	-0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIN	53	0	56	236	49	25	7	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.6%	10.2%	3.0%	4.76	4.73	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIN	52	0	55	233	49	25	7	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.6%	10.3%	3.1%	4.75	4.75	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIN	23	0	24	101	21	11	3	0%	1.0	20.3%	10.8%	9.5%	3.0%	4.85	4.80	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIN	35	0	37	156	33	17	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.6%	10.2%	3.0%	4.76	4.73	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIN	41	0	43	182	38	19	6	0%	1.0	20.9%	10.6%	10.3%	3.1%	4.75	4.75	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		99	0	104	438	91	47	13	0%	1.0	20.8%	10.6%	10.1%	3.1%	4.78	4.37	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	91	25	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.6%	10.1%	3.1%	4.78	4.37	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		36	22	88	397	65	50	11	61%	2.5	16.3%	12.6%	3.6%	2.7%	5.81	4.82	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	50	200	899	146	114	24	61%	2.5	16.3%	12.6%	3.6%	2.7%	5.81	4.82	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ross Dunn (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	19.3%	11.7%	3.1%	—	4.76	20.7%	10.0%	167	-0.25	—	—	—
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	81
Matt Walker L 2022 · 4.54 FIP	24	SW	4.54	17.7%	12.8%	2.4%	.338	4.73	12.7%	2.7%	41	+0.19	4.21	156	80
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	79
Mac Lardner L 2022 · 5.08 FIP	24	SW	5.08	17.4%	9.4%	4.1%	.318	3.66	17.5%	8.1%	62	-1.42	3.66	186	78
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	74
Larson Kindreich L 2023 · 5.29 FIP	24	SW	5.29	21.5%	18.8%	3.0%	.269	4.68	23.0%	9.0%	79	-0.61	4.16	214	74
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	74
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.83	21.4%	10.7%	156	-0.19	2.44	171	73
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.20	21.6%	15.5%	179	+0.27	2.24	306	73
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	73
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	73
Max Roberts L 2021 · 4.85 FIP	24	SW	4.85	19.3%	15.2%	2.6%	.330	4.62	24.5%	8.4%	115	-0.23	4.27	173	73
Brad Hand L 2015 · 3.95 FIP	25	SW	3.95	16.4%	7.6%	2.3%	.326	2.71	32.9%	25.0%	241	-1.24	0.84	577	72
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	72
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	71
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	70
Colin Rodgers L 2018 · 4.36 FIP	24	SW	4.36	16.8%	9.7%	2.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	313	70
Matt Tracy L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	14.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.306	4.10	14.7%	5.5%	208	+0.14	3.24	298	70
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	69
Luis Lugo L 2018 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	15.9%	11.3%	3.3%	.306	4.75	19.3%	8.0%	202	-0.27	4.29	622	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	52	20.4%	10.9%	1.18	4.83
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86