Blade Tidwell

P Sacramento River Cats

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 244 lbs AAA Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.3 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AAASPD6040-MANArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	26	22	122	4.86	4.60	22.6%	12.0%	—	K 19.0% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.87
2025	24	MIX2 levels	25	19	112	4.34	3.56	25.0%	9.5%	1.8	K 21.8% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.89
2026	25	MIX2 levels	33	24	129	4.41	4.09	22.5%	10.1%	1.2	K 20.5% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.31
2027PROJ	26	MLBSF	16	16	96	4.58	4.68	21.1%	9.1%	0.2
2028PROJ64% MLB	27	MLBSF	17	17	103	4.48	4.53	21.1%	9.0%	0.3
2029PROJ76% MLB	28	MLBSF	20	20	122	4.53	4.58	21.1%	9.1%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.000First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$4M2029Arb-3$6M2030Arb-4$8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo58

xwOBA vs45

Whiff%35

K%32

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Rorik Maltrud (age 24) · Nick Payero (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.58

FIP4.68

K%21.1%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%11.9%

Proj IP96

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5550

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p3523.1%

p3219.6%

xwOBA vs

p450.317

FB+2.0 (51%)

CH (4%)

SL (41%)

SI (17%)

CU (4%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2025

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-2	$4M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$6M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-4	$8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	9	41	11	7	0	100%	1.9	26.8%	17.1%	9.8%	0.0%	1.93	3.00	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	9	41	11	7	0	100%	1.9	26.8%	17.1%	9.8%	0.0%	1.93	2.99	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	116	487	153	63	14	100%	4.6	24.5%	14.7%	9.8%	3.5%	3.57	4.84	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	116	487	153	63	14	100%	4.6	31.4%	12.9%	18.5%	2.9%	3.57	3.66	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	122	535	121	64	18	85%	4.7	19.0%	11.2%	7.9%	3.6%	4.86	4.87	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	122	535	121	64	18	85%	4.7	19.0%	11.2%	7.9%	3.6%	4.86	4.87	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	122	535	121	64	18	85%	4.7	22.6%	12.0%	10.7%	3.4%	4.86	4.60	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	112	484	121	46	12	76%	4.5	21.8%	8.8%	13.0%	2.8%	4.34	3.89	+1.4
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	112	484	121	46	12	76%	4.5	21.8%	8.8%	13.0%	2.8%	4.34	3.89	+1.4
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	19	112	484	121	46	12	76%	4.5	25.0%	9.5%	15.5%	2.5%	4.34	3.56	+1.8
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	24	129	552	124	56	16	73%	3.9	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	3.2%	4.41	4.31	+0.9
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	24	129	552	124	56	16	73%	3.9	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	3.2%	4.41	4.31	+0.9
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	24	129	552	124	56	16	73%	3.9	22.5%	10.1%	12.3%	2.9%	4.41	4.09	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			21	11	72	313	56	31	12	52%	3.4	17.9%	9.9%	8.0%	3.8%	5.40	5.01	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	SF	16	16	96	405	85	37	13	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.1%	11.9%	3.3%	4.58	4.68	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	27	27	160	677	143	61	23	100%	5.9	21.1%	9.0%	12.1%	3.3%	4.62	4.67	+0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	27	27	160	677	143	62	23	100%	5.9	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	3.4%	4.67	4.72	+0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	26	26	153	646	133	60	23	100%	5.9	20.5%	9.3%	11.3%	3.5%	4.78	4.86	+0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	SF	24	24	144	608	121	58	23	100%	6.0	19.9%	9.5%	10.4%	3.7%	4.94	5.05	-0.2
2032	31	MLB MLE	SF	22	22	134	567	108	56	22	100%	6.1	19.1%	9.9%	9.3%	4.0%	5.15	5.28	-0.6
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	17	17	103	435	92	39	13	100%	6.1	21.1%	9.0%	12.1%	3.1%	4.48	4.53	+0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	20	20	122	515	109	47	16	100%	6.1	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	3.2%	4.53	4.58	+0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	21	21	125	528	108	49	17	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.3%	11.3%	3.3%	4.63	4.71	+0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	SF	21	21	124	524	104	50	18	100%	5.9	19.9%	9.5%	10.4%	3.4%	4.79	4.90	-0.2
2032	31	MLB CTX	SF	20	20	119	502	96	50	18	100%	6.0	19.1%	9.9%	9.3%	3.7%	4.99	5.12	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		120	110	665	2817	565	266	95	92%	5.5	20.1%	9.4%	10.6%	3.4%	4.77	4.46	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	33	200	848	170	80	29	92%	5.5	20.1%	9.4%	10.6%	3.4%	4.77	4.46	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		114	95	488	2099	451	233	67	83%	4.3	21.5%	11.1%	10.4%	3.2%	4.26	4.45	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	39	200	860	185	96	28	83%	4.3	21.5%	11.1%	10.4%	3.2%	4.26	4.45	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blade Tidwell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	21.1%	9.1%	3.3%	—	4.75	20.9%	11.8%	474	+0.07	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	82
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	78
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	78
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	77
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	77
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	77
Matt Wise R 2001 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	23.7%	8.1%	5.2%	.271	3.50	13.5%	7.2%	53	-1.48	3.33	302	76
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	76
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	76
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	75
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	75
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	75
Griffin Canning R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP	5.21	22.4%	10.1%	5.0%	.295	4.55	21.1%	13.3%	299	-0.66	3.60	809	75
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	74
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	74
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	74
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	74
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	74
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	74
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.7	133	20.3%	9.4%	1.38	4.84
Max Surkont ('49-'57, 5 WAR*)	6.0	149	20.0%*	8.4%*	1.27*	4.76*
Brent Strom ('72-'77, 0 WAR*)	2.5	125	19.3%*	8.2%*	1.53*	4.78*
Roy Mahaffey ('26-'36, 4 WAR*)	5.3	151	18.2%*	9.0%*	1.45*	4.70*
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
Dan Straily ('19)	4.0	115	19.8%	9.1%	1.60	4.56
Colby Lewis ('16)	6.1	135	18.4%	7.2%	1.32	4.70