Chase Centala — OGILVIE

Chase Centala P Everett AquaSox

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 48 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%17.6%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP48

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	6	0	10	39	6	4	1	0%	1.6	15.4%	10.3%	5.1%	2.6%	3.72	4.51	—
2024	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	6	0	10	39	6	4	1	0%	1.6	15.4%	10.3%	5.1%	2.6%	3.72	4.51	—
2024	22	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	6	0	10	39	6	4	1	0%	1.6	15.4%	10.3%	5.1%	2.6%	3.72	4.44	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	1	72	295	61	23	6	2%	1.5	16.1%	9.4%	6.7%	2.6%	3.25	4.37	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	1	72	295	61	23	6	2%	1.5	16.1%	9.4%	6.7%	2.6%	3.25	4.37	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	47	1	72	295	61	23	6	2%	1.5	20.7%	7.8%	12.9%	2.0%	3.25	3.45	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	21	14	69	309	69	20	6	67%	3.3	17.2%	7.4%	9.8%	2.4%	5.84	3.92	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	21	14	69	309	69	20	6	67%	3.3	17.2%	7.4%	9.8%	2.4%	5.84	3.92	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	SEA	21	14	69	309	69	20	6	67%	3.3	22.3%	6.5%	15.9%	1.9%	5.84	3.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SEA	65	0	69	290	55	26	8	0%	1.1	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	2.9%	4.67	4.62	-0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	SEA	65	0	69	290	58	26	8	0%	1.1	19.9%	9.0%	10.8%	2.9%	4.59	4.55	0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	SEA	64	0	68	286	57	26	9	0%	1.1	20.0%	9.1%	10.9%	3.0%	4.58	4.58	-0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	SEA	63	0	66	277	55	26	9	0%	1.0	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	3.1%	4.62	4.65	-0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	SEA	60	0	63	265	52	25	9	0%	1.0	19.8%	9.5%	10.3%	3.2%	4.72	4.78	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	SEA	29	0	30	127	24	11	4	0%	1.0	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	2.9%	4.67	4.62	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	SEA	44	0	46	194	39	18	6	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.0%	10.8%	2.9%	4.59	4.55	0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	SEA	50	0	52	220	44	20	7	0%	1.0	20.0%	9.1%	10.9%	3.0%	4.58	4.58	-0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	SEA	52	0	55	232	46	22	7	0%	1.1	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	3.1%	4.62	4.65	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	SEA	52	0	55	232	46	22	7	0%	1.1	19.8%	9.5%	10.3%	3.2%	4.72	4.78	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		226	0	238	1004	199	92	31	0%	1.1	19.8%	9.2%	10.6%	3.0%	4.63	4.26	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	77	26	0%	1.1	19.8%	9.2%	10.6%	3.0%	4.63	4.26	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		74	15	151	643	107	55	16	20%	2.0	16.6%	8.5%	8.1%	2.5%	4.47	4.16	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	20	200	852	141	72	21	20%	2.0	16.6%	8.5%	8.1%	2.5%	4.47	4.16	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Centala (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	17.6%	9.4%	2.9%	—	4.58	19.7%	10.6%	205	-0.20	—	—	—
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	93
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	90
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	87
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2023 · 5.11 FIP	24	SW	5.11	18.2%	9.9%	4.2%	.304	3.67	18.0%	9.9%	189	-1.44	3.51	330	84
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	84
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	83
Carlo Reyes R 2022 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.4%	8.6%	2.9%	.318	3.92	24.1%	12.9%	61	-0.14	2.60	229	83
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	83
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	83
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	83
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	82
T.J. Weir R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	24	SW	3.97	20.0%	9.1%	2.5%	.319	3.43	19.0%	9.6%	190	-0.54	3.15	349	82
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	82
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	82
J.C. Flowers R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	24	SU	4.02	17.6%	8.9%	2.3%	.263	5.44	15.6%	-0.3%	133	+1.42	3.59	281	82
Michael Flynn R 2022 · 3.89 FIP	25	SW	3.89	14.2%	8.4%	1.7%	.362	4.45	24.0%	13.5%	98	+0.56	3.89	168	81
Tai Tiedemann R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	23	SU	3.87	17.5%	9.8%	1.8%	.305	5.78	9.8%	-0.2%	118	+1.91	3.87	190	81
Blake Goldsberry R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	24	SU	4.09	16.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.267	4.51	23.6%	13.4%	75	+0.42	3.43	117	81
Jaycob Deese R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	17.4%	6.8%	4.0%	.309	4.83	13.6%	4.4%	140	+0.15	3.28	208	81
Adam Leverett R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	24	SW	4.09	15.4%	10.8%	1.7%	.309	5.03	15.1%	7.4%	186	+0.94	3.41	401	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	64	19.5%	9.2%	1.16	4.65
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79