Jaxon Wiggins

P Iowa Cubs

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTFG #103Pre-ArbFA 2033

Scout OFP52ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX3 levels	18	18	60	4.37	3.40	28.0%	14.2%	—	K 22.5% · BB 12.8% · FIP 3.53
2025	23	MIX3 levels	19	18	78	2.19	2.66	31.0%	11.5%	—	K 24.5% · BB 12.5% · FIP 3.11
2026	24	MIX3 levels	22	11	43	6.75	4.97	25.5%	17.3%	—	K 21.9% · BB 17.3% · FIP 4.95
2027PROJ	25	MLBCHC	11	11	66	4.71	4.71	24.7%	14.5%	0.1
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBCHC	7	7	40	4.60	4.59	24.8%	13.9%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBCHC	9	9	54	4.59	4.60	24.5%	13.5%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$2M2032Ext$2M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff56Control48Command48FB velo66

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsSean Mooney (age 24) · Luis Quiñones (age 25) · Andrew Politi (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%24.7%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP66

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5555

CTRL4550

CMD4550

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	60	254	71	36	4	100%	3.3	22.5%	12.8%	9.6%	1.3%	4.37	3.53	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	60	254	71	36	4	100%	3.3	22.5%	12.8%	9.6%	1.3%	4.37	3.53	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	18	60	254	71	36	4	100%	3.3	28.0%	14.2%	13.8%	1.6%	4.37	3.40	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	18	78	313	97	36	4	95%	4.1	24.5%	12.5%	12.0%	0.9%	2.19	3.11	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	18	78	313	97	36	4	95%	4.1	24.5%	12.5%	12.0%	0.9%	2.19	3.11	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	18	78	313	97	36	4	95%	4.1	31.0%	11.5%	19.5%	1.3%	2.19	2.66	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	11	43	196	50	34	6	50%	1.9	21.9%	17.3%	4.6%	2.7%	6.75	4.95	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	11	43	196	50	34	6	50%	1.9	21.9%	17.3%	4.6%	2.7%	6.75	4.95	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	11	43	196	50	34	6	50%	1.9	25.5%	17.3%	8.2%	3.1%	6.75	4.97	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CHC	11	11	66	279	69	40	8	100%	6.0	24.7%	14.5%	10.2%	2.7%	4.71	4.71	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	82	347	86	48	9	100%	5.9	24.8%	13.9%	10.8%	2.7%	4.66	4.65	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	81	342	84	46	10	100%	5.8	24.5%	13.5%	11.0%	2.8%	4.65	4.66	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	79	332	87	42	10	100%	6.0	26.3%	12.6%	13.7%	2.9%	4.52	4.45	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	75	317	82	40	10	100%	5.8	26.0%	12.7%	13.3%	3.1%	4.55	4.58	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	71	298	76	39	10	100%	5.9	25.6%	13.0%	12.6%	3.3%	4.67	4.76	+0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	66	278	70	37	10	100%	6.0	25.2%	13.4%	11.9%	3.5%	4.84	4.96	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	40	169	42	23	4	100%	5.7	24.8%	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	4.60	4.59	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	9	9	54	228	56	31	6	100%	6.0	24.5%	13.5%	11.0%	2.7%	4.59	4.60	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	61	258	68	32	7	100%	6.1	26.3%	12.6%	13.7%	2.8%	4.46	4.39	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	62	262	68	33	8	100%	6.2	26.0%	12.7%	13.3%	2.9%	4.49	4.52	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	61	258	66	34	8	100%	6.1	25.6%	13.0%	12.6%	3.1%	4.60	4.69	+0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	59	249	63	33	8	100%	5.9	25.2%	13.4%	11.9%	3.4%	4.77	4.89	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	56	336	1419	361	186	42	100%	6.0	25.5%	13.1%	12.3%	3.0%	4.58	4.23	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	215	111	25	100%	6.0	25.5%	13.1%	12.3%	3.0%	4.58	4.23	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		59	47	180	763	177	106	11	80%	3.1	23.2%	13.9%	9.3%	1.5%	3.99	3.72	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	52	200	846	196	117	13	80%	3.1	23.2%	13.9%	9.3%	1.5%	3.99	3.72	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jaxon Wiggins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	24.7%	14.5%	2.7%	—	4.59	25.2%	11.8%	242	-0.12	—	—	—
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	81
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.80	22.4%	10.8%	160	+0.03	3.69	326	79
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	77
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	76
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	74
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	74
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	73
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	73
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	73
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	73
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	72
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	72
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	71
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.69	18.9%	3.2%	77	+0.02	3.95	270	71
Patrick Weigel R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	25	SP-	5.00	18.7%	12.9%	3.4%	.197	4.88	20.0%	4.0%	105	-0.12	2.64	566	71
Spencer Howard R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	25	SP	3.76	24.5%	11.3%	2.4%	.311	4.82	24.1%	15.1%	208	+1.06	2.33	484	70
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	70
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	70
Pierce Johnson R 2016 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	22.9%	15.7%	3.4%	.321	3.55	24.8%	13.4%	121	-1.48	2.75	598	70
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	74	25.3%	13.4%	1.15	4.65
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Dennis Higgins ('66-'72, 1 WAR*)	2.1	82	24.5%*	12.2%*	0.94*	4.34*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Jose Veras ('14)	2.1	60	24.0%	12.1%	0.96	3.91