Grayson Moore — OGILVIE

Grayson Moore P South Bend Cubs

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%21.5%

BB%16.0%

K-BB%5.5%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	7	34	8	4	0	0%	1.5	23.5%	11.8%	11.8%	0.0%	9.82	2.60	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	7	34	8	4	0	0%	1.5	23.5%	11.8%	11.8%	0.0%	9.82	2.60	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	7	34	8	4	0	0%	1.5	23.5%	11.8%	11.8%	0.0%	9.82	2.55	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	11	0	14	66	15	13	1	0%	1.3	17.5%	22.7%	-5.2%	2.1%	2.57	5.63	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	11	0	14	66	15	13	1	0%	1.3	17.5%	22.7%	-5.2%	2.1%	2.57	5.63	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	11	0	14	66	15	13	1	0%	1.3	22.7%	19.7%	3.0%	1.5%	2.57	4.67	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	33	156	42	23	0	0%	1.1	21.4%	16.8%	4.6%	0.0%	4.36	3.42	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	33	156	42	23	0	0%	1.1	21.4%	16.8%	4.6%	0.0%	4.36	3.42	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	33	156	42	23	0	0%	1.1	26.9%	14.7%	12.2%	0.0%	4.36	2.65	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	32	0	44	179	44	13	5	0%	1.4	19.2%	8.3%	10.9%	3.4%	4.33	4.40	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	32	0	44	179	44	13	5	0%	1.4	19.2%	8.3%	10.9%	3.4%	4.33	4.40	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	CHC	23	0	30	124	30	12	2	0%	1.3	24.2%	9.7%	14.5%	1.6%	3.26	3.17	—
2026	25	AA RAW	CHC	9	0	13	55	14	1	3	0%	1.5	25.5%	1.8%	23.6%	5.5%	6.75	4.17	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CHC	41	0	43	181	40	28	5	0%	1.0	21.9%	15.3%	6.6%	2.7%	5.05	5.04	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	CHC	17	0	18	76	17	12	2	0%	1.1	21.9%	15.3%	6.6%	2.7%	5.05	5.04	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	18	78	17	12	2	0%	1.0	21.9%	15.3%	6.6%	2.7%	5.05	4.66	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	130	22	0%	1.0	21.9%	15.3%	6.6%	2.7%	5.05	4.66	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		77	0	98	435	87	60	7	0%	1.3	20.1%	13.8%	6.3%	1.7%	4.50	4.09	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		157	0	200	888	178	122	15	0%	1.3	20.1%	13.8%	6.3%	1.7%	4.50	4.09	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grayson Moore (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	21.5%	16.0%	2.7%	—	5.04	21.9%	6.6%	43	-0.11	—	—	—
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	86
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	86
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	86
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	86
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	85
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	84
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	84
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	83
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	83
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	83
Yaramil Hiraldo R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	25	SU	4.86	18.5%	15.5%	2.5%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	153	83
Carlos Ramirez R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	18.9%	14.5%	1.6%	.291	3.10	23.5%	14.5%	103	-1.14	2.62	177	83
Walker Brockhouse R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SU	4.24	21.7%	16.7%	1.6%	.301	5.15	18.7%	4.0%	42	+0.91	4.24	126	83
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	82
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	82
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	82
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	82
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	82
Evan Johnson R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	23.6%	17.6%	2.4%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	82
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	21.8%	15.5%	1.04	5.08
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91