Justin Lange prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Justin Lange P Tampa Tarpons

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs A peak 0.5 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%23.8%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP60

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	9	9	22	102	29	15	1	100%	2.4	19.3%	18.4%	1.0%	1.4%	6.95	4.55	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	9	9	22	102	29	15	1	100%	2.4	28.4%	14.7%	13.7%	1.0%	6.95	3.10	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	12	12	36	172	51	30	2	100%	3.0	20.2%	21.8%	-1.6%	1.5%	6.44	5.00	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	12	12	36	172	51	30	2	100%	3.0	29.7%	17.4%	12.2%	1.2%	6.44	3.49	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	85	394	131	63	8	100%	4.1	24.7%	18.8%	5.9%	2.4%	4.75	4.73	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	85	394	131	63	8	100%	4.1	24.7%	18.8%	5.9%	2.4%	4.75	4.73	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	85	394	131	63	8	100%	4.1	33.2%	16.0%	17.3%	2.0%	4.75	3.46	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	1	10	47	10	6	2	11%	1.1	21.3%	12.8%	8.5%	4.3%	5.40	5.26	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	1	10	47	10	6	2	11%	1.1	21.3%	12.8%	8.5%	4.3%	5.40	5.26	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	1	10	47	10	6	2	11%	1.1	21.3%	12.8%	8.5%	4.3%	5.40	5.50	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.8%	14.8%	9.0%	3.0%	4.97	4.97	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	NYY	10	10	60	255	62	33	8	100%	6.0	24.1%	13.1%	11.1%	3.0%	4.80	4.72	+0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	10	10	60	255	62	32	8	100%	6.0	24.3%	12.7%	11.5%	3.0%	4.71	4.67	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYY	10	10	60	251	61	32	8	100%	6.0	24.2%	12.6%	11.6%	3.0%	4.69	4.69	+0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	NYY	4	4	26	110	26	14	3	100%	6.5	24.1%	13.1%	11.1%	3.0%	4.80	4.72	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	7	7	40	169	41	21	5	100%	5.7	24.3%	12.7%	11.5%	3.0%	4.71	4.67	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	46	194	47	25	6	100%	5.8	24.2%	12.6%	11.6%	3.0%	4.69	4.69	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	19	112	472	114	60	14	100%	5.9	24.2%	12.8%	11.5%	3.0%	4.72	4.31	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	204	107	25	100%	6.0	24.2%	12.8%	11.5%	3.0%	4.72	4.31	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		51	43	154	715	162	136	16	84%	3.0	22.6%	19.1%	3.6%	2.2%	5.51	4.80	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	56	200	931	211	177	20	84%	3.0	22.6%	19.1%	3.6%	2.2%	5.51	4.80	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Lange (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	23.8%	14.8%	3.0%	—	4.69	24.2%	11.4%	180	-0.28	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	86
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	82
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	81
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	80
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.6%	11.6%	249	-0.34	4.54	318	79
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	78
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	78
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.85	19.4%	6.3%	322	+0.59	4.26	422	78
Darren Bowen R 2023 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP-	3.82	19.0%	12.8%	1.3%	.236	5.41	15.1%	4.2%	223	+1.59	3.82	278	77
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	77
Matt Ball R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP-	4.72	21.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	312	76
Ryan Cardona R 2023 · 3.85 FIP	23	SP-	3.85	22.8%	16.5%	1.1%	.262	4.44	16.8%	3.5%	211	+0.59	3.62	367	75
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	75
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	75
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	75
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	74
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	74
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.71	21.6%	11.0%	188	-0.66	3.16	266	74
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	73
R.J. Freure R 2021 · 6.10 FIP	24	SP-	6.10	21.7%	16.2%	5.1%	.298	5.89	20.3%	0.1%	26	-0.21	5.13	196	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	60	24.1%	13.3%	1.15	4.79
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30