Emiliano Teodo

P Round Rock Express

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 165 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	AATEX	20	19	86	1.98	2.89	30.7%	14.0%	—	K 24.9% · BB 15.4% · FIP 3.63
2025	24	MIX3 levels	27	0	30	7.20	5.20	25.5%	19.5%	—	K 21.7% · BB 16.8% · FIP 6.30
2026	25	MIX2 levels	52	0	62	3.92	3.31	27.7%	16.9%	0.9	K 24.4% · BB 15.1% · FIP 3.41
2027PROJ	26	MLBTEX	44	0	46	4.77	4.77	25.5%	17.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ77% MLB	27	MLBTEX	40	0	42	4.75	4.76	25.3%	16.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ84% MLB	28	MLBTEX	37	0	39	4.78	4.82	25.0%	15.9%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsJose De La Torre (age 27) · Sam Gardner (age 26) · Preston Johnson (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%25.5%

BB%17.0%

K-BB%8.5%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	19	0	29	133	48	18	0	0%	1.5	24.5%	16.9%	7.6%	0.0%	3.38	3.17	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	19	0	29	133	48	18	0	0%	1.5	36.1%	13.5%	22.6%	0.0%	3.38	1.67	—
2022	21	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	22	17	84	349	115	43	7	77%	3.8	24.4%	14.5%	9.8%	2.9%	3.09	4.45	—
2022	21	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	22	17	84	349	115	43	7	77%	3.8	33.0%	12.3%	20.6%	2.0%	3.09	2.98	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	18	14	62	268	84	33	10	78%	3.4	24.1%	14.2%	10.0%	4.9%	4.52	5.56	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	18	14	62	268	84	33	10	78%	3.4	31.3%	12.3%	19.0%	3.7%	4.52	4.09	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	20	19	86	358	110	50	4	95%	4.3	24.9%	15.4%	9.5%	1.2%	1.98	3.63	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	20	19	86	358	110	50	4	95%	4.3	24.9%	15.4%	9.5%	1.2%	1.98	3.63	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	20	19	86	358	110	50	4	95%	4.3	30.7%	14.0%	16.8%	1.1%	1.98	2.89	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	30	149	38	29	4	0%	1.1	21.7%	16.8%	4.9%	5.3%	7.20	6.30	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	30	149	38	29	4	0%	1.1	21.7%	16.8%	4.9%	5.3%	7.20	6.30	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	0	30	149	38	29	4	0%	1.1	25.5%	19.5%	6.0%	2.7%	7.20	5.20	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	62	278	77	47	2	0%	1.2	24.4%	15.1%	9.3%	0.8%	3.92	3.41	+0.8
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	62	278	77	47	2	0%	1.2	24.4%	15.1%	9.3%	0.8%	3.92	3.41	+0.8
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	62	278	77	47	2	0%	1.2	27.7%	16.9%	10.8%	0.7%	3.92	3.31	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	2	10	1	2	0	0%	1.7	10.0%	20.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	10.80	5.50	-0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TEX	44	0	46	194	50	33	5	0%	1.0	25.5%	17.0%	8.5%	2.4%	4.77	4.77	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TEX	51	0	54	227	57	37	6	0%	1.1	25.3%	16.3%	9.0%	2.5%	4.75	4.76	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	TEX	44	0	46	195	49	31	5	0%	1.1	25.0%	15.9%	9.1%	2.6%	4.78	4.82	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	TEX	40	0	42	176	43	28	5	0%	1.0	24.7%	15.8%	8.9%	2.8%	4.85	4.92	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	TEX	40	0	42	177	45	29	4	0%	1.1	25.3%	16.3%	9.0%	2.5%	4.75	4.76	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	TEX	37	0	39	165	41	26	4	0%	1.1	25.0%	15.9%	9.1%	2.6%	4.78	4.82	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	TEX	34	0	36	152	38	24	4	0%	1.1	24.7%	15.8%	8.9%	2.8%	4.85	4.92	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		112	0	119	503	124	81	13	0%	1.1	24.7%	16.1%	8.6%	2.6%	4.88	4.46	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	849	209	137	22	0%	1.1	24.7%	16.1%	8.6%	2.6%	4.88	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		158	50	354	1535	372	233	38	32%	2.2	24.2%	15.2%	9.0%	2.5%	3.59	4.33	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		89	28	200	868	210	132	21	32%	2.2	24.2%	15.2%	9.0%	2.5%	3.59	4.33	-0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 60 IPFIP 3.24 → 3.41 (+0.16)K% 28.4% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.36%	—	×0.860	24.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.79%	—	×0.900	15.11%
HR / BF /BF	0.75%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.82%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.24 → 3.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 18 IPFIP 5.74 → 6.30 (+0.56)K% 25.3% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.27%	—	×0.860	21.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.68%	—	×0.900	16.81%
HR / BF /BF	4.40%	÷0.913	×1.100	5.29%

Result: FIP 5.74 → 6.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 10 IPFIP 4.51 → 5.16 (+0.65)K% 20.8% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.83%	—	×0.810	16.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	25.00%	—	×1.100	27.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.976	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 4.51 → 5.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 86 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.63 (+0.74)K% 30.7% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.73%	—	×0.810	24.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.97%	—	×1.100	15.36%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷1.080	×1.200	1.24%

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hickory Crawdads · 62 IPFIP 4.06 → 5.56 (+1.50)K% 31.3% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.34%	—	×0.770	24.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.31%	—	×1.150	14.16%
HR / BF /BF	3.73%	÷0.948	×1.250	4.92%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 4.06 → 5.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADown East Wood Ducks · 84 IPFIP 2.98 → 4.45 (+1.47)K% 33.0% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.95%	—	×0.740	24.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.32%	—	×1.180	14.54%
HR / BF /BF	2.01%	÷0.912	×1.300	2.86%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.98 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Rangers · 29 IPFIP 1.77 → 3.17 (+1.40)K% 36.1% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.09%	—	×0.680	24.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.53%	—	×1.250	16.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.015	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 1.77 → 3.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Emiliano Teodo (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.4%	—	4.83	25.0%	9.0%	142	+0.06	—	—	—
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	77
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	76
Preston Johnson R 2024 · 3.94 FIP	24	SU	3.94	23.7%	18.2%	1.0%	.331	5.04	22.6%	10.5%	137	+1.10	3.94	193	75
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	74
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	73
Stevie Branche R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	25.6%	19.1%	1.2%	.274	5.67	19.3%	1.7%	28	+1.63	3.23	162	73
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	72
Eduardo Herrera R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.5%	15.7%	2.2%	.284	4.44	16.7%	-5.0%	31	+0.31	4.13	127	72
LJ McDonough R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	22.6%	16.7%	2.3%	.385	4.85	20.0%	2.8%	90	+0.31	4.16	127	72
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	72
Ryan Jensen R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	26.6%	17.2%	1.6%	.331	4.35	21.9%	5.6%	50	+0.43	3.92	311	71
Carter Loewen R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	23.1%	15.0%	2.2%	.312	4.16	20.0%	11.9%	23	-0.10	2.67	145	71
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	71
Manny Acosta R 2007 · 4.05 FIP	26	SU	4.05	23.7%	14.0%	2.1%	.196	4.23	19.0%	9.1%	130	+0.18	3.08	350	71
Zak Kent R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	26	SW	4.04	21.5%	14.0%	1.8%	.358	3.98	21.4%	11.7%	129	-0.06	3.13	385	71
Steve Johnson R 2013 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	27.4%	16.4%	2.5%	.308	2.90	26.6%	17.8%	93	-1.33	2.22	206	70
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	70
Cody Morris R 2023 · 5.08 FIP	26	SU	5.08	23.9%	15.6%	3.7%	.203	3.90	23.3%	9.5%	38	-1.18	2.23	256	70
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	318	70
Mitchell Stumpo R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	26	SU	4.55	24.0%	16.8%	2.4%	.225	5.67	21.5%	6.6%	78	+1.12	3.97	158	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	53	25.0%	16.4%	0.97	4.83
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Matt Mantei ('05)	1.6	54	28.0%	14.1%	0.84	4.07
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*