Luis Valdez (P, Down East Wood Ducks) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Luis Valdez P Down East Wood Ducks

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 158 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 11 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 121

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%23.1%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%11.5%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	3	3	6	21	9	1	0	100%	2.0	42.9%	4.8%	38.1%	0.0%	1.50	0.08	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	3	3	6	21	9	1	0	100%	2.0	42.9%	4.8%	38.1%	0.0%	1.50	0.60	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	43	164	51	3	2	77%	3.3	20.9%	0.9%	20.0%	2.2%	2.70	2.65	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	43	164	51	3	2	77%	3.3	31.1%	1.8%	29.3%	1.2%	2.70	1.55	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	9	30	137	37	18	2	64%	2.2	20.7%	19.0%	1.7%	1.3%	4.15	4.47	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	9	30	137	37	18	2	64%	2.2	20.7%	19.0%	1.7%	1.3%	4.15	4.47	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	9	30	137	37	18	2	64%	2.2	27.0%	13.1%	13.9%	1.5%	4.15	3.30	—
2024	21	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	3	1	6	36	5	3	2	33%	1.9	13.9%	8.3%	5.6%	5.6%	9.53	6.03	—
2024	21	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	3	1	6	36	5	3	2	33%	1.9	13.9%	8.3%	5.6%	5.6%	9.53	6.03	—
2024	21	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	3	1	6	36	5	3	2	33%	1.9	13.9%	8.3%	5.6%	5.6%	9.53	7.51	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.1%	11.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.64	4.64	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TEX	4	4	20	84	20	9	2	100%	5.0	23.7%	10.6%	13.1%	3.0%	4.51	4.45	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	TEX	2	2	9	38	9	4	1	100%	4.5	23.7%	10.6%	13.1%	3.0%	4.51	4.45	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	9	36	9	4	1	100%	4.3	23.7%	10.6%	13.1%	3.0%	4.51	4.07	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	211	94	23	100%	5.6	23.7%	10.6%	13.1%	3.0%	4.51	4.07	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		33	23	85	358	77	32	7	70%	2.6	21.4%	8.8%	12.6%	2.1%	3.59	3.54	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	54	200	839	180	74	17	70%	2.6	21.4%	8.8%	12.6%	2.1%	3.59	3.54	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Valdez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	23.1%	11.6%	3.0%	—	4.45	23.7%	13.1%	20	-0.19	—	—	—
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.81	21.6%	10.9%	156	-0.21	2.44	171	81
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.17	22.0%	15.8%	179	+0.24	2.24	312	80
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	78
Ryan Williamson L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.57	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.47	4.10	123	76
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	73
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	73
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	72
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.79	17.1%	7.8%	206	-0.85	2.95	250	72
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	71
Dana Eveland L 2006 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP-	4.00	22.7%	9.9%	2.8%	.385	3.97	14.8%	4.3%	212	-0.03	2.42	544	71
Jagger Haynes L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	19.7%	13.0%	2.1%	.303	4.98	17.7%	3.9%	349	+0.73	4.25	374	71
Logan Darnell L 2014 · 4.78 FIP	25	SP-	4.78	19.6%	7.1%	4.4%	.338	4.10	13.4%	6.1%	262	-0.68	3.16	454	70
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	70
Antonio Bastardo L 2009 · 4.73 FIP	23	SP	4.73	17.9%	8.5%	3.8%	.297	3.04	33.0%	22.1%	129	-1.69	2.47	404	69
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	69
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	68
Jack Owen L 2021 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	4.2%	.359	4.22	16.0%	8.7%	201	-0.36	3.44	221	67
Jose Alvarez L 2013 · 5.02 FIP	24	SW	5.02	18.0%	8.7%	4.2%	.294	2.98	20.4%	14.8%	124	-2.04	2.78	414	67
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	67
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.09	501	67