Dahian Santos

P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 24 RHP 5'11" / 160 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #873MiLBFA 2036

ETA2028FG ETA2026MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	19	MIX2 levels	23	18	86	4.50	2.96	38.5%	11.7%	—	K 28.7% · BB 13.7% · FIP 4.69
2023	20	A+TOR	12	12	48	3.54	3.80	27.2%	13.1%	—	K 20.9% · BB 15.1% · FIP 4.57
2024	21	MIX3 levels	20	3	36	5.55	4.50	30.4%	17.1%	—	K 20.9% · BB 18.3% · FIP 5.09
2027PROJ	24	MLBTOR	16	16	90	4.73	4.73	23.6%	12.7%	0.2
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBTOR	8	8	48	4.60	4.54	24.3%	11.7%	0.2
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBTOR	14	14	81	4.52	4.47	24.6%	11.3%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$1M2034Ext$1M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff60Command40FB velo45

CompsRay Gaither (age 24) · Sean Mooney (age 24) · Nolan DeVos (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%23.6%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%10.9%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5060

CMD3040

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	40	175	58	16	6	75%	3.4	24.2%	10.1%	14.1%	4.7%	5.58	4.91	—
2021	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	9	40	175	58	16	6	75%	3.4	33.1%	9.1%	24.0%	3.4%	5.58	3.35	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	18	86	369	142	43	11	78%	3.7	28.7%	13.7%	15.0%	4.1%	4.50	4.69	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	18	86	369	142	43	11	78%	3.7	38.5%	11.7%	26.8%	3.0%	4.50	2.96	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	12	12	48	206	56	27	5	100%	4.0	20.9%	15.1%	5.9%	2.4%	3.54	4.57	—
2023	20	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	12	12	48	206	56	27	5	100%	4.0	27.2%	13.1%	14.1%	2.4%	3.54	3.80	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	3	36	158	48	27	5	15%	1.8	20.9%	18.3%	2.6%	2.6%	5.55	5.09	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	3	36	158	48	27	5	15%	1.8	20.9%	18.3%	2.6%	2.6%	5.55	5.09	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	3	36	158	48	27	5	15%	1.8	30.4%	17.1%	13.3%	3.2%	5.55	4.50	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TOR	16	16	90	380	90	48	11	100%	5.6	23.6%	12.7%	10.9%	3.0%	4.73	4.73	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	109	461	112	54	14	100%	5.7	24.3%	11.7%	12.6%	3.0%	4.60	4.54	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	121	511	126	58	15	100%	6.1	24.6%	11.3%	13.2%	3.0%	4.52	4.47	+0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	119	504	123	57	15	100%	6.0	24.4%	11.2%	13.2%	3.0%	4.51	4.50	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	116	489	118	55	15	100%	6.1	24.2%	11.3%	13.0%	3.1%	4.55	4.58	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	18	18	110	467	112	54	15	100%	6.1	24.0%	11.5%	12.5%	3.3%	4.65	4.71	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	17	17	104	439	104	52	15	100%	6.1	23.7%	11.8%	11.9%	3.5%	4.79	4.89	+0.0
2034	31	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	97	409	95	50	15	100%	6.1	23.3%	12.2%	11.1%	3.7%	4.97	5.09	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	48	203	49	24	6	100%	6.0	24.3%	11.7%	12.6%	3.0%	4.60	4.54	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	81	342	84	39	10	100%	5.8	24.6%	11.3%	13.2%	3.0%	4.52	4.47	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	93	393	96	44	12	100%	5.8	24.4%	11.2%	13.2%	3.0%	4.51	4.50	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	98	414	100	47	13	100%	6.1	24.2%	11.3%	13.0%	3.1%	4.55	4.58	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	97	410	98	47	13	100%	6.1	24.0%	11.5%	12.5%	3.3%	4.65	4.71	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	93	393	93	46	14	100%	5.8	23.7%	11.8%	11.9%	3.5%	4.79	4.89	+0.0
2034	31	MLB CTX	TOR	15	15	89	376	87	46	14	100%	5.9	23.3%	12.2%	11.1%	3.7%	4.97	5.09	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		100	100	598	2525	607	292	82	100%	6.0	24.0%	11.6%	12.5%	3.2%	4.66	4.31	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	203	98	27	100%	6.0	24.0%	11.6%	12.5%	3.2%	4.66	4.31	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		67	42	210	908	224	128	33	63%	3.1	24.7%	14.1%	10.6%	3.6%	4.66	4.77	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	40	200	863	213	122	31	63%	3.1	24.7%	14.1%	10.6%	3.6%	4.66	4.77	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dahian Santos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	23.6%	12.7%	3.0%	—	4.50	24.4%	13.0%	350	-0.23	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	83
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	82
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	81
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	81
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	81
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	4.95	18.3%	5.2%	131	-0.32	4.34	382	80
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	694	79
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	79
Matt Ball R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP-	4.72	21.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	312	79
Kyle Nicolas R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	23.7%	11.5%	3.7%	.325	3.67	23.2%	9.7%	176	-0.94	3.25	464	78
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	78
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	78
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	78
Houston Roth R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP-	4.44	19.3%	11.2%	2.8%	.306	5.01	21.1%	8.6%	168	+0.57	3.79	406	78
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	78
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	78
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	78
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	77
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	77
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	108	24.0%	11.7%	1.23	4.65
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Bill Stoneman ('67-'74, 7 WAR*)	6.2	155	22.8%*	11.1%*	1.25*	4.75*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*