Victor Arias

CF New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 23 L/L 5'9" / 150 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #192MiLBFA 2036

Scout OFP42ETA2029FG ETA2026MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	AATOR	150	.226/.299/.331	2	6	59	—	.219/.272/.321
2025	21	A+TOR	318	.294/.381/.437	5	12	87	—	.244/.308/.368
2026	22	AATOR	351	.226/.277/.379	10	9	55	—	.207/.246/.333
2026	22	INTLAguilas del Z…	30	.400/.500/.520	0	2	194	—
2027PROJ2% MLB	23	MLBTOR	6	.221/.275/.337	0	0	71	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	24	MLBTOR	134	.226/.282/.358	3	3	79	-0.0
2029PROJ45% MLB	25	MLBTOR	208	.230/.287/.372	5	5	84	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.8M2034Arb-2$0.4M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

K%55

ISO53

Speed52

Z-Con%44

Whiff%41

Chase%28

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 90%

CompsTrey Sweeney (age 23) · Parker Meadows (age 23) · Victor Mesa Jr. (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .275 / .337

PA6

HR0

K%33

BB%6

BABIP289

ISO122

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 43 / POW 53

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT43

scouting grade only

POWER53

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED61

scouting grade only

DEFENSE48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	134	109	27	4	0	2	24	32	1	5	3	248	388	339	728	92	333	24	18	342	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	67	54	17	3	3	0	11	20	2	5	2	315	448	481	929	167	500	30	16	415	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	152	117	26	6	1	4	30	39	4	15	1	222	397	393	791	171	293	26	20	362	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	40	34	11	1	0	0	6	5	0	1	3	324	425	353	778	29	379	12	15	363	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	332	280	78	19	3	8	36	72	14	17	7	279	388	454	841	175	347	22	11	376	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	150	133	30	4	2	2	14	38	0	6	1	226	299	331	630	105	292	25	9	281	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	318	279	82	15	5	5	36	64	3	12	4	294	381	437	818	143	367	20	11	367	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	351	327	74	14	3	10	21	83	2	9	9	226	277	379	656	153	274	24	6	291	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	24	19	2	1	0	0	5	6	0	2	1	105	292	158	450	53	154	25	21	237	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	INTL	Aguilas del Zulia	—	30	25	10	1	1	0	5	7	0	2	0	400	500	520	1.020	120	556	23	17	454	194	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	134	117	19	3	0	1	16	40	1	5	3	162	269	214	482	51	227	30	12	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	67	58	11	2	2	0	7	24	2	5	2	190	299	293	592	103	324	36	10	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	152	128	21	4	1	3	19	56	4	15	1	164	291	281	573	117	240	37	12	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	40	36	11	1	0	0	4	7	0	1	3	306	375	333	708	28	362	18	10	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	332	290	70	16	2	6	26	94	14	17	7	241	333	372	706	131	328	28	8	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	150	137	30	4	2	2	10	48	0	6	1	219	272	321	593	102	295	32	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	318	291	71	13	4	5	24	90	3	12	4	244	308	368	676	124	340	28	8	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	351	333	69	12	3	8	15	101	2	9	9	207	246	333	579	126	272	29	4	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	24	21	2	1	0	0	3	8	0	2	1	95	208	143	351	48	133	33	12	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	134	117	19	3	0	1	16	40	1	5	3	162	269	214	482	51	237	30	12	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	—	134	109	27	4	0	2	24	32	1	5	3	248	388	339	728	92	333	24	18	342	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	67	58	11	2	2	0	7	24	2	5	2	190	299	293	592	103	324	36	10	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	—	67	54	17	3	3	0	11	20	2	5	2	315	448	481	929	167	500	30	16	415	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	152	128	21	4	1	3	19	56	4	15	1	164	291	281	573	117	257	37	12	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	—	152	117	26	6	1	4	30	39	4	15	1	222	397	393	791	171	293	26	20	362	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	372	326	81	17	2	6	30	101	14	18	10	248	338	368	706	120	339	27	8	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	372	314	89	20	3	8	42	77	14	18	10	283	392	443	835	159	351	21	11	374	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	468	427	100	17	6	6	35	138	3	18	5	234	297	344	641	110	329	29	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	468	412	112	19	7	7	50	102	3	18	5	272	355	403	758	131	343	22	11	339	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	405	382	76	14	3	8	20	118	2	13	10	199	243	314	557	115	266	29	5	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA RAW	3 teams	—	405	371	86	16	4	10	31	96	2	13	10	232	295	377	672	146	287	24	8	300	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	134	116	19	3	0	1	16	40	1	5	3	164	269	216	484	52	227	30	12	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	67	58	11	2	2	0	7	24	2	5	2	190	299	293	592	103	324	36	10	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	152	128	21	4	1	3	19	56	4	15	1	164	291	281	573	117	240	37	12	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	372	325	81	17	2	6	30	101	14	18	10	249	338	369	707	120	332	27	8	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	468	427	100	17	6	6	35	138	3	18	5	234	297	344	641	110	326	29	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	405	380	76	14	3	8	20	118	2	13	10	200	243	316	558	116	263	29	5	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	372	325	81	17	2	6	30	101	14	18	10	249	338	369	707	120	332	27	8	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	468	427	100	17	6	6	35	138	3	18	5	234	297	344	641	110	326	29	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	405	380	76	14	3	8	20	118	2	13	10	200	243	316	558	116	263	29	5	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TOR	2%	485	449	98	18	4	9	30	131	3	11	6	220	274	336	610	116	288	27	6	273	71	-17	-0	-1	+2	+11	-0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	TOR	2%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	221	275	337	613	117	289	33	0	274	71	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	31%	433	399	90	16	4	10	28	115	3	10	5	225	282	357	638	131	290	27	6	284	79	-11	+0	-1	+2	+9	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	TOR	45%	467	430	99	18	4	12	31	123	3	10	6	229	286	370	657	141	290	26	7	292	84	-9	-0	-1	+2	+10	0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	TOR	51%	487	447	103	18	4	13	33	127	4	11	6	231	289	378	668	147	290	26	7	296	87	-8	-0	-1	+2	+11	0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	494	453	105	19	4	13	34	129	4	10	6	231	290	378	668	147	290	26	7	296	87	-8	-0	-1	+2	+11	0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	494	453	104	19	4	13	34	129	4	9	6	230	290	375	664	145	289	26	7	295	86	-8	-1	-1	+2	+11	0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	487	447	102	18	4	13	34	129	3	7	5	228	287	369	656	141	288	26	7	292	84	-9	-1	-2	+2	+11	0.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	478	439	99	18	3	12	33	128	3	5	4	225	284	362	645	137	287	27	7	287	81	-11	-1	-3	+2	+10	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	31%	134	123	28	5	1	3	9	36	1	3	2	226	282	358	641	132	291	27	7	285	79	-3	-0	-0	+0	+3	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	TOR	45%	208	190	44	8	2	5	14	55	2	5	3	230	287	372	659	142	292	26	7	293	84	-4	-0	-0	+1	+5	0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	TOR	51%	248	227	53	9	2	7	17	65	2	5	3	232	290	380	670	148	292	26	7	297	87	-4	-0	-0	+1	+5	0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	259	237	55	10	2	7	18	68	2	5	3	232	291	379	670	147	291	26	7	297	87	-4	-0	-0	+1	+6	0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	264	242	56	10	2	7	18	69	2	5	3	231	291	376	667	145	291	26	7	296	86	-4	-0	-1	+1	+6	0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	256	234	55	10	2	7	18	68	2	3	3	229	288	370	658	142	290	27	7	293	84	-5	-1	-1	+1	+6	-0.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	249	228	51	9	2	6	17	67	2	2	2	226	284	363	648	137	288	27	7	288	81	-6	-0	-1	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1618	1481	342	61	13	42	111	428	13	28	19	231	290	375	665	144	295	26	7	293	79	-31	-2	-4	+6	+35	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	595	138	25	5	17	45	172	5	11	8	232	291	376	668	145	296	26	7	293	79	-12	-1	-2	+2	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5258	4801	1075	195	44	116	374	1444	52	143	73	224	287	355	643	131	294	27	7	285	79	-75	-3	-10	+13	+79	0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	132	24	5	14	46	179	6	18	9	222	285	350	635	128	292	28	7	285	79	-13	-1	-2	+2	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Billy Maloney'01-'08 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,762 PA	4.2	2,762	6	155	235*	299*	373*	+5	+9	6.9	6.9
/162	664	1	37	+1.1	+2.1	1.7	pk7: 7
#2Harry Craft'37-'42 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,245 PA	3.4	2,245	44	14	241*	284*	411*	+8	+11	4.5	4.5
/162	664	13	4	+2.2	+3.3	1.3	pk7: 4
#3Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#4Luis Matos'00-'06 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,773 PA	2.7	1,773	30	72	245*	304*	365*	+1	+10	3.2	3.2
/162	664	11	27	+0.3	+3.9	1.2	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.4	1,625	42	29	230	285	372	+6	-2	1.9	1.9
/162	664	17	12	+2.4	-0.9	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6George Wright'82-'86 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,322 PA	3.5	2,322	42	19	241*	288*	377*	-2	-7	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	12	5	-0.5	-2.1	-0.1	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Victor Arias (OGILVIE)	23	30→43	40→53	60→61	45	218/272/333	115	288	6	7	27%	6%	71	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	38→45	48→50	57→55	45	200/273/344	144	263	16	19	30%	8%	74	-0.5	218/289/354	136	286	15	17	28%	8%	82	+0.0	219/291/353	133	286	15	17	27%	8%	81	-0.1
✕Parker Meadows 2023 · AA	23	42→48	48→55	52→55	44	215/274/360	145	274	16	12	28%	7%	78	-0.3	228/295/388	160	293	16	20	27%	8%	92	+0.7	227/300/392	165	291	17	22	27%	9%	94	+0.7
✕Victor Mesa Jr. 2024 · AA	22	43→46	43→55	51→50	42	213/264/326	114	277	10	11	27%	6%	66	-1.1	230/284/377	147	283	17	11	24%	7%	85	+0.2	238/297/408	169	279	21	11	23%	7%	95	+0.5
✕Chris Meyers 2022 · A	23	40→46	41→50	51→40	45	197/266/297	101	258	8	11	26%	7%	61	-1.5	222/279/357	135	292	15	6	28%	6%	79	-0.2	226/286/369	143	292	17	3	28%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Isan Díaz 2019 · AAA	23	41→43	46→55	50→45	44	205/277/341	136	298	13	10	34%	8%	75	-0.5	217/287/367	150	293	17	6	30%	8%	84	+0.2	212/290/379	167	275	21	5	30%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Brian O'Grady 2015 · A	23	39→38	43→60	54→50	46	194/258/307	113	251	9	8	26%	8%	59	-1.6	188/270/299	111	264	10	14	30%	9%	63	-1.4	212/274/402	190	276	23	15	31%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Kyle Isbel 2021 · A	24	42→52	45→50	52→55	40	214/260/336	123	281	12	16	28%	5%	67	-1.1	231/290/364	133	295	12	18	25%	7%	84	+0.2	232/292/371	139	290	13	19	24%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Taylor Trammell 2021 · AA	23	43→48	40→55	51→55	47	206/284/296	90	293	8	17	30%	9%	67	-1.1	219/299/381	162	297	19	15	31%	9%	92	+0.7	213/300/386	173	283	21	17	31%	10%	93	+0.5
✕Drew Robinson 2015 · AAA	23	39→43	44→55	49→50	42	191/265/312	121	292	10	9	36%	8%	64	-1.3	204/281/365	161	290	18	12	33%	9%	82	-0.0	211/288/384	173	313	19	12	36%	9%	85	+0.2
●Tristan Peters 2023 · AA	23	48→53	43→50	53→50	49	229/296/351	122	291	8	14	23%	8%	83	+0.1	231/299/350	119	288	9	12	22%	8%	84	+0.2	233/307/367	134	284	11	9	21%	8%	90	+0.5
✕Caleb Roberts 2023 · AA	23	43→46	42→50	50	44	203/288/312	110	308	9	12	34%	9%	73	-0.6	210/288/341	131	299	12	11	31%	9%	79	-0.2	201/279/334	133	279	12	10	30%	8%	72	-0.5
●Tim Wheeler 2011 · A	23	44→54	44→50	50	43	217/279/332	116	278	12	14	26%	6%	73	-0.6	242/297/373	131	316	13	13	26%	6%	89	+0.5	247/301/371	124	324	12	13	26%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Tsung-Che Cheng 2024 · AA	23	47→48	44→45	57→55	46	230/292/354	124	295	9	20	25%	8%	82	+0.0	211/279/311	100	292	9	17	29%	8%	68	-1.0	200/274/289	89	282	8	17	30%	9%	59	-1.2
●Adrian Del Castillo 2023 · A	23	37→47	43→55	52→40	42	187/254/301	114	257	10	7	30%	7%	57	-1.8	222/292/368	146	299	15	3	29%	8%	86	+0.3	232/298/415	183	288	22	1	27%	8%	99	+0.8
✕Raynel Delgado 2023 · AA	23	42→52	40	49→60	44	204/275/294	90	285	7	15	29%	7%	63	-1.4	234/300/330	96	324	8	23	28%	8%	80	-0.1	246/311/338	92	338	7	32	27%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Gabriel Rincones Jr. 2024 · A	23	41→42	47→50	54→55	42	207/279/346	139	294	14	18	33%	8%	77	-0.3	212/287/351	139	290	15	20	30%	8%	81	-0.1	206/286/345	139	274	16	20	29%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Jason Pridie 2006 · AA	22	43→53	46→50	55	39	215/265/350	135	303	13	16	33%	6%	72	-0.7	235/269/348	113	299	9	17	24%	4%	72	-0.7	249/278/382	133	310	11	22	23%	3%	81	-0.1
✕Blake Tekotte 2010 · A	23	43→47	43→50	50→55	47	213/273/320	107	259	10	15	22%	7%	68	-1.0	222/284/369	147	288	16	21	27%	7%	84	+0.1	216/278/370	155	284	17	23	29%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Hoy Park 2018 · A	22	44→52	39→45	58→55	46	208/280/301	93	279	6	17	26%	8%	66	-1.1	228/306/313	85	303	5	16	24%	9%	78	-0.3	234/324/332	98	306	8	17	24%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Cayden Wallace 2024 · AA	22	45→49	44→50	53→50	45	220/280/345	125	285	10	13	26%	7%	76	-0.4	226/279/351	125	289	12	13	25%	6%	77	-0.3	232/281/372	140	285	16	15	24%	5%	80	-0.1

Victor Arias

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps