Samuel Mejia — OGILVIE

Samuel Mejia P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 160 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%19.9%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	12	6	51	216	44	15	2	50%	4.3	13.9%	8.7%	5.2%	1.4%	2.63	3.81	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 1	12	6	51	216	44	15	2	50%	4.3	20.4%	6.9%	13.4%	0.9%	2.63	2.77	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	14	0	20	83	22	5	1	0%	1.4	18.0%	7.5%	10.5%	1.9%	2.25	3.56	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	14	0	20	83	22	5	1	0%	1.4	26.5%	6.0%	20.5%	1.2%	2.25	2.30	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	34	138	48	8	3	0%	1.6	23.4%	5.4%	18.0%	1.7%	2.62	2.71	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	34	138	48	8	3	0%	1.6	23.4%	5.4%	18.0%	1.7%	2.62	2.71	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	34	138	48	8	3	0%	1.6	34.8%	5.8%	29.0%	2.2%	2.62	2.14	—
2024	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	33	0	53	235	61	20	7	0%	1.6	19.2%	10.0%	9.2%	4.7%	5.98	5.33	—
2024	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	33	0	53	235	61	20	7	0%	1.6	19.2%	10.0%	9.2%	4.7%	5.98	5.33	—
2024	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	33	0	53	235	61	20	7	0%	1.6	26.0%	8.5%	17.4%	3.0%	5.98	3.65	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	5	72	298	81	31	6	21%	3.0	20.4%	11.8%	8.6%	2.2%	4.35	4.07	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	5	72	298	81	31	6	21%	3.0	20.4%	11.8%	8.6%	2.2%	4.35	4.07	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	5	72	298	81	31	6	21%	3.0	27.2%	10.4%	16.8%	2.0%	4.35	3.22	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	ATL	5	0	5	21	4	3	1	0%	1.0	19.9%	11.8%	8.0%	3.0%	4.94	4.94	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ATL	65	0	68	287	59	32	9	0%	1.0	20.6%	11.0%	9.6%	3.0%	4.81	4.77	-0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	ATL	65	0	68	287	60	31	9	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.8%	10.1%	3.0%	4.74	4.71	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	ATL	64	0	67	283	60	31	9	0%	1.0	21.1%	10.8%	10.3%	3.0%	4.73	4.73	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	ATL	62	0	65	274	58	30	9	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.9%	10.1%	3.1%	4.77	4.80	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	ATL	28	0	29	122	25	14	4	0%	1.0	20.6%	11.0%	9.6%	3.0%	4.81	4.77	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	ATL	43	0	45	190	40	21	6	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.8%	10.1%	3.0%	4.74	4.71	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	ATL	50	0	52	220	46	24	7	0%	1.0	21.1%	10.8%	10.3%	3.0%	4.73	4.73	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	ATL	52	0	55	232	49	25	7	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.9%	10.1%	3.1%	4.77	4.80	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	0	181	762	160	83	23	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.9%	10.1%	3.0%	4.76	4.37	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	92	25	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.9%	10.1%	3.0%	4.76	4.37	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		104	11	231	970	183	91	24	11%	2.2	18.9%	9.4%	9.5%	2.5%	3.90	4.08	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	10	200	841	159	79	21	11%	2.2	18.9%	9.4%	9.5%	2.5%	3.90	4.08	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samuel Mejia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	19.9%	11.8%	3.0%	—	4.74	20.9%	10.0%	203	-0.20	—	—	—
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	89
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	89
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	86
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	86
Tai Tiedemann R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	23	SU	3.87	17.5%	9.8%	1.8%	.305	5.78	9.8%	-0.2%	118	+1.91	3.87	190	86
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	85
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	85
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	84
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	84
J.C. Flowers R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	24	SU	4.02	17.6%	8.9%	2.3%	.263	5.44	15.6%	-0.3%	133	+1.42	3.59	281	84
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	84
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	84
John Matthews R 2022 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	16.5%	13.0%	2.1%	.264	5.00	14.5%	-0.5%	70	+0.49	4.51	213	83
Bryan Pope R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.332	5.20	12.7%	-0.3%	22	+1.24	3.96	148	83
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	83
Ryan Zeferjahn R 2022 · 4.45 FIP	24	SW	4.45	21.0%	12.4%	2.8%	.325	4.37	27.1%	13.6%	163	-0.08	3.08	344	82
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	82
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	82
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	82
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	20.7%	11.1%	1.17	4.80
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19