Roque Gutierrez — OGILVIE

Roque Gutierrez P Tulsa Drillers

+0.2 WAR

Age 23 RHP 5'9" / 177 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2029

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.0%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%10.9%

IP91

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.1peak

2029

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Dodgers	12	0	15	69	10	5	1	9.9%	9.1%	1.9%	5.87	4.44	+0.1
2022	19	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	24	0	35	155	43	11	5	19.4%	8.6%	4.1%	5.14	4.83	+0.0
2023	20	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	18	9	51	219	57	17	2	18.8%	9.5%	1.2%	4.41	3.37	+0.9
2024	21	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	28	4	99	437	118	35	13	20.0%	9.5%	3.6%	5.38	4.60	+0.8
2025	22	AA	Tulsa Drillers	25	12	94	408	103	42	14	19.9%	11.6%	4.3%	4.69	5.25	-0.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	Tulsa Drillers	3	0	6	31	3	6	1	—	—	—	5.68	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	LAD	17	17	91	384	81	39	13	21.0%	10.2%	3.4%	4.87	4.87	+0.4
2026 Total	23	MLB	LAD	—	—	97	415	84	45	14	20.2%	10.8%	3.4%	4.92	4.55	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	LAD	20	20	109	461	100	44	15	21.7%	9.4%	3.3%	4.73	4.68	+0.8
2028	25	MLB	LAD	22	22	123	518	114	47	17	22.1%	9.0%	3.3%	4.62	4.57	+1.0
2029	26	MLB	LAD	24	24	130	547	122	49	18	22.3%	8.9%	3.3%	4.56	4.53	+1.1
2030	27	MLB	LAD	24	24	133	560	125	50	18	22.3%	8.9%	3.3%	4.54	4.54	+1.1
2031	28	MLB	LAD	24	24	133	560	125	50	19	22.3%	9.0%	3.3%	4.55	4.56	+1.1
2032	29	MLB	LAD	24	24	130	547	121	49	18	22.1%	9.0%	3.4%	4.58	4.61	+1.0
2033	30	MLB	LAD	23	23	126	531	116	48	18	21.9%	9.1%	3.4%	4.63	4.67	+0.9
2034	31	MLB	LAD	22	22	121	512	111	47	18	21.7%	9.3%	3.5%	4.70	4.74	+0.8
2035	32	MLB	LAD	21	21	116	491	105	46	18	21.4%	9.4%	3.6%	4.78	4.83	+0.6
2036	33	MLB	LAD	20	20	111	470	99	45	17	21.1%	9.6%	3.7%	4.87	4.93	+0.5
2037	34	MLB	LAD	19	19	106	446	93	44	17	20.8%	9.8%	3.8%	4.97	5.04	+0.3
2038	35	MLB	LAD	18	18	100	420	86	42	16	20.4%	10.0%	3.9%	5.08	5.16	+0.2
2039	36	MLB	LAD	17	17	93	393	78	40	16	19.9%	10.3%	4.0%	5.21	5.29	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			110	25	300	1319	250	135	45	18.9%	10.2%	3.4%	5.00	4.66	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—			73	17	200	878	166	90	30	18.9%	10.2%	3.4%	5.00	4.66	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Roque Gutierrez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	21.0%	10.2%	3.4%	—	4.59	22.0%	12.9%	361	-0.28	—	—	—
Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP-	4.72	20.2%	12.2%	3.3%	.269	4.89	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.28	448	94
Derek True R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	23	SP-	4.91	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.96	16.6%	4.6%	60	+0.05	4.91	157	93
Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	93
Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.02	10.6%	4.0%	101	-0.21	4.02	199	91
Blake Beers R 2027 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.96	17.7%	8.5%	323	+0.35	4.41	416	91
Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP-	4.78	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.31	14.0%	1.0%	106	+0.53	3.85	291	91
Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.96	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.49	2.91	175	91
CJ Van Eyk R 2025 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	21.8%	12.7%	3.6%	.302	4.62	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.21	2.74	347	91
Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	17.8%	9.3%	2.8%	.300	3.77	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.53	3.77	107	90
Levi Thomas R 2026 · 5.33 FIP	23	SP-	5.33	18.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.17	5.16	116	90
Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	3.95	21.4%	10.8%	118	-0.35	2.58	199	90
Thomas Farr R 2026 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	18.0%	9.8%	4.1%	.340	5.31	12.4%	2.9%	280	+0.27	5.04	380	90
Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP-	4.66	16.5%	9.4%	3.2%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.66	4.63	340	90
Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.77	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.59	1.92	778	90
Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 4.81 FIP	23	SP-	4.81	19.7%	11.6%	3.5%	.353	4.80	20.5%	8.2%	305	-0.01	3.98	481	90
Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 4.81 FIP	23	SP-	4.81	21.4%	10.8%	3.9%	.236	4.64	22.3%	3.9%	180	-0.17	4.22	289	89
Peyton Pallette R 2026 · 4.47 FIP	23	SP-	4.47	20.7%	10.9%	3.2%	.309	3.67	27.7%	16.5%	64	-0.80	3.67	219	89
Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.44	18.2%	7.0%	78	+0.55	3.89	183	89
Carlos Sano R 2028 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP-	4.88	17.6%	11.2%	3.4%	.282	9.12	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.24	4.88	105	89
Levi Stoudt R 2026 · 4.60 FIP	23	SP-	4.60	19.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.257	5.68	16.1%	5.2%	289	+1.08	4.35	395	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.1	$10M	+$9M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.1	$10M	+$9M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.1	$10M	+$9M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+1.0	$10M	+$8M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.9	$4M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.8	$4M	+$2M
Totals		$9M		$48M	+$39M