Javier Rivas — OGILVIE

Javier RivasSS Altoona Curve

Age 23 R/R 6'6" / 165 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION207 act + 138 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†50

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .234 / .331

PA138

HR4

K%33

BB%4

BABIP256

ISO138

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE20

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.3M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL PIT Black	—	192	178	12	2	0	0	6	88	7	6	4	67	131	79	210	11	132	46	3	108	-59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	DSL PIT Black	—	192	173	23	5	1	0	11	56	7	6	4	133	215	173	388	40	195	29	6	189	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	175	159	31	6	0	4	6	54	8	4	1	195	260	308	568	113	262	31	3	242	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	175	155	41	9	0	5	10	43	8	4	1	265	341	419	760	155	330	25	6	339	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	2 teams	—	403	369	64	10	1	3	19	180	9	8	6	173	232	230	462	57	319	45	5	204	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	2 teams	—	403	361	84	15	1	4	27	127	9	8	6	233	302	313	615	80	340	32	7	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	2 teams	—	402	372	56	12	2	7	12	194	14	7	3	151	206	250	456	99	287	48	3	199	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	2 teams	—	402	368	79	19	2	12	16	132	14	7	3	215	274	375	649	160	299	33	4	288	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	2 teams	—	507	472	104	15	1	16	14	162	13	4	1	220	263	358	621	138	293	32	3	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	2 teams	—	507	464	117	20	1	21	22	118	13	4	1	252	305	435	740	183	290	23	4	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AA	PIT	—	207	195	37	7	3	6	9	66	2	3	1	190	233	349	582	159	250	32	4	246	46	-13	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.4
YTD	23	AA	PIT	—	207	191	42	8	3	7	13	51	2	3	1	220	277	403	680	183	261	25	6	299	87	-3	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.5
ROS	23	AA	PIT	2%	138	130	25	4	1	4	5	45	2	1	0	192	234	331	564	138	260	33	4	251	50	-8	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.2
ROS	23	MLB	PIT	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						258	33	0	238	40	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	AA	PIT	—	210	198	37	7	3	6	9	67	2	3	1	187	230	343	573	157	246	32	4	246	46	-13	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.4
TOT	23	AA	PIT	—	345	325	62	11	4	10	14	111	4	4	1	191	233	342	575	151	252	32	4	248	48	-20	+0	+0	+4	+10	-0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	PIT	31%	541	506	102	17	3	17	22	169	8	5	2	202	246	348	594	146	262	31	4	263	60	-25	+0	+0	+6	+15	-0.3
2028	25	MLB	PIT	45%	572	532	110	19	3	19	26	174	9	5	2	207	256	361	617	154	265	30	5	272	67	-22	+0	+0	+6	+16	0.1
2029	26	MLB	PIT	51%	589	547	116	20	4	20	28	176	9	6	2	212	262	373	635	161	267	30	5	278	71	-20	+0	+0	+6	+17	0.4
2030	27	MLB	PIT	53%	595	551	116	20	4	20	30	177	9	6	2	211	263	370	633	160	267	30	5	279	72	-19	+0	+0	+6	+17	0.5
2031	28	MLB	PIT	53%	594	550	115	20	3	20	30	178	9	5	2	209	261	365	627	156	267	30	5	278	71	-20	+0	-1	+6	+17	0.3
2032	29	MLB	PIT	53%	587	543	112	19	3	19	30	177	9	5	2	206	259	357	617	151	266	30	5	276	70	-20	+0	-1	+6	+17	0.2
2027	24	MLB	PIT	31%	168	156	31	5	1	5	7	52	3	2	1	199	247	340	587	141	261	31	4	251	50	-9	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.3
2028	25	MLB	PIT	45%	255	237	49	8	2	8	12	77	4	2	1	207	257	359	616	152	264	30	5	260	57	-12	+0	+0	+3	+7	-0.2
2029	26	MLB	PIT	51%	300	277	58	10	2	10	15	90	5	3	1	209	263	368	631	159	266	30	5	265	61	-13	+0	+0	+3	+8	-0.1
2030	27	MLB	PIT	53%	312	288	60	10	2	10	16	93	5	3	1	208	262	361	623	153	266	30	5	267	62	-13	+0	+0	+3	+9	-0.1
2031	28	MLB	PIT	53%	317	293	60	10	2	10	16	95	5	3	1	205	258	355	613	150	266	30	5	266	62	-14	+0	-0	+3	+9	-0.2
2032	29	MLB	PIT	53%	309	285	59	10	2	10	16	93	5	3	1	207	261	361	623	154	265	30	5	264	60	-14	+0	-1	+3	+9	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1664	1539	317	53	11	53	82	501	27	16	6	206	258	358	617	152	265	30	5	263	60	-76	+1	-1	+18	+47	-1.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	601	124	21	4	21	32	196	11	6	2	206	259	359	619	153	265	30	5	263	60	-30	+0	-0	+7	+18	-0.4
Career	—			—	5295	4909	963	164	25	149	228	1774	106	62	27	196	247	331	578	135	270	34	4	255	53	-280	+2	-2	+57	+150	-7.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	603	118	20	3	18	28	218	13	8	3	196	247	328	575	133	270	34	4	255	53	-34	+0	-0	+7	+18	-0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL PIT Black	—	192	173	23	5	1	0	11	56	7	6	4	133	215	173	388	40	195	29	6	189	3	-21	-0	—	—	+5	-1.6
2022	19	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	175	155	41	9	0	5	10	43	8	4	1	265	341	419	760	155	330	25	6	339	117	+3	+0	—	—	+5	0.9
2023	20	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	215	196	37	4	0	2	13	84	2	1	0	189	246	240	486	51	310	39	6	223	29	-17	+0	—	—	+6	-1.1
2023	20	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	188	165	47	11	1	2	14	43	7	7	6	285	366	400	766	115	369	23	7	344	121	+5	-1	—	—	+5	0.9
2024	21	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	35	32	4	0	1	0	0	14	2	0	0	125	176	188	364	62	222	40	0	166	-15	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2024	21	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	367	336	75	19	1	12	16	118	12	7	3	223	283	393	676	170	306	32	4	299	87	-5	+0	—	—	+10	0.5
2025	22	AA	Altoona Curve	—	118	110	23	7	0	3	3	26	2	0	0	209	243	355	598	145	241	22	3	259	56	-6	+0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2025	22	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	389	354	94	13	1	18	19	92	11	4	1	266	323	460	783	195	306	24	5	342	120	+9	+0	—	—	+11	2.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#2Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	10	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
	/162	664	27	11	230	288	422	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,667	55	15	209	257	365	+18	+9	0.7	0.8
	/162	664	22	6	209	257	365	+7.1	+3.6	0.3	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Javier Rivas (OGILVIE)	23	45	55	45	20	191/233/342	151	252	10	4	32%	4%	48	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rodolfo Durán 2021 · A	23	39	47→55	47→40	36	204/241/332	128	275	16	4	32%	4%	53	-1.5	201/241/337	136	264	15	4	29%	5%	54	-1.4	225/266/386	161	276	19	3	26%	4%	75	-0.0
✕Cristian Santana 2021 · AA	24	44→48	46→45	45→30	32	223/246/344	121	306	15	3	32%	3%	58	-1.2	250/281/350	100	335	9	3	27%	4%	74	-0.1	255/286/346	91	341	8	1	27%	4%	72	-0.1
✕Joe Dunand 2019 · AA	23	41→48	48→50	45	38	213/264/353	140	284	16	4	31%	5%	69	-0.4	206/260/317	111	288	11	4	31%	5%	58	-1.2	199/270/344	145	289	17	5	35%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Gabriel Quintana 2016 · AA	23	41→45	51→55	40→45	31	216/243/375	159	292	20	3	34%	3%	66	-0.6	204/234/362	158	291	19	4	36%	3%	59	-1.1	192/222/346	154	276	18	2	37%	3%	47	-1.2
✕Rodolfo Castro 2021 · A	22	37→40	47→55	46→50	35	194/234/331	137	275	15	6	35%	5%	50	-1.7	211/266/374	163	279	20	8	31%	6%	76	+0.0	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Jason Lopez 2021 · A	23	40	44→55	46→45	37	202/247/323	121	282	12	7	32%	5%	53	-1.5	194/256/297	103	298	10	10	36%	7%	50	-1.7	163/228/254	91	247	10	10	36%	8%	25	-0.9
✕Josh Phegley 2011 · AA	23	42→47	46→60	45→40	35	213/251/334	121	288	15	4	31%	4%	58	-1.2	227/265/349	122	268	13	4	21%	4%	68	-0.5	236/279/422	186	260	22	1	19%	4%	92	+0.8
✕Brad Harman 2009 · AA	23	39→49	45	46→40	39	199/251/317	118	278	13	4	33%	6%	54	-1.4	189/239/293	104	274	9	4	33%	6%	42	-2.3	164/213/251	87	239	6	0	33%	5%	18	-3.1
✕Gavin LaValley 2018 · AA	23	43	46→50	46→40	38	219/263/345	126	293	13	2	30%	5%	66	-0.6	202/262/328	126	283	15	3	33%	7%	62	-0.9	184/252/300	117	257	15	2	34%	7%	48	-1.4
✕Yu Chang 2019 · AAA	23	41→46	48→50	47→45	39	207/266/350	143	291	15	7	34%	6%	69	-0.4	221/275/366	145	298	15	7	30%	6%	76	+0.1	215/275/364	149	282	17	4	29%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Jacob Scavuzzo 2018 · AA	24	40→48	47→55	45	35	208/248/339	131	284	15	6	32%	4%	58	-1.2	198/239/357	159	281	20	10	36%	4%	59	-1.1	181/222/355	174	245	24	10	37%	4%	50	-0.9
✕Quincy Latimore 2012 · AA	23	40→41	47→50	44→50	35	202/251/336	134	292	14	7	35%	5%	59	-1.1	205/258/334	129	280	15	10	31%	6%	62	-0.9	208/258/343	135	271	15	10	29%	5%	61	-0.6
✕Alex Jackson 2019 · AAA	23	36→35	48→60	44→30	33	188/244/330	142	290	16	2	40%	5%	55	-1.4	191/260/384	193	288	27	4	43%	5%	77	+0.1	194/265/368	174	267	22	2	35%	6%	71	-0.1
✕Mitch Nay 2018 · A	24	37→47	45→50	47→30	37	193/235/311	119	254	14	3	30%	4%	45	-2.1	223/278/362	139	280	16	3	26%	6%	77	+0.1	213/280/360	147	269	17	2	27%	8%	74	-0.0
✕Juan Silverio 2014 · A	23	43→46	46→50	41→45	32	218/241/349	131	291	13	5	30%	2%	57	-1.2	227/256/359	132	294	16	6	28%	3%	66	-0.6	228/258/363	135	287	18	4	27%	3%	65	-0.3
✕Todd Glaesmann 2014 · AA	23	41→43	43→50	49→50	35	204/245/313	109	284	10	7	31%	4%	50	-1.8	207/241/333	126	276	13	8	29%	3%	53	-1.5	199/230/335	136	257	15	7	29%	3%	46	-1.1
✕Brandon Barnes 2010 · AA	24	42→52	45→55	41→50	33	209/247/333	124	303	12	5	35%	4%	56	-1.3	207/254/356	149	281	17	11	32%	5%	65	-0.7	236/281/354	118	320	11	16	29%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Derrick Mitchell 2010 · A	23	36→46	45→50	47→55	36	190/226/314	124	249	12	8	30%	4%	42	-2.3	214/261/343	129	284	13	16	28%	5%	65	-0.7	215/265/342	127	278	13	19	27%	5%	63	-0.6
✕Johermyn Chavez 2012 · AA	23	41→45	47→50	40→45	39	210/265/342	132	280	15	6	30%	5%	67	-0.5	210/274/331	121	284	14	5	30%	6%	68	-0.5	211/282/338	128	278	17	2	29%	7%	71	-0.1
✕Sebastian Valle 2013 · AAA	23	42→49	44→50	38→40	32	211/236/319	108	298	12	2	33%	3%	46	-2.0	203/230/310	107	277	11	3	30%	3%	42	-2.3	229/281/373	143	303	16	2	29%	6%	78	+0.1