Javier Rivas — OGILVIE

Javier RivasSS Altoona Curve

Age 23 R/R 6'6" / 165 lbs AA BB +7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.8 · 2029

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .239 / .320

PA320

HR9

K%36

BB%3

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

45→45

PWR

55→55

SPD

45→45

EYE

32↘20

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2029

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$3M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$12M		$14M	+$2M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL PIT Black	192	177	14	3	0	0	7	85	7	6	4	.079	.147	.096	.243	.017	.151	44	4	.112	-56	-34	-0	+0	+2	+5	-2.7
2022	19	ROK	FCL Pirates	175	159	31	6	0	4	6	54	8	4	1	.195	.260	.308	.568	.113	.262	31	3	.243	44	-11	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.4
2023	20	A	2 teams	403	369	61	10	1	3	19	184	9	8	6	.165	.224	.222	.446	.057	.310	46	5	.197	9	-41	-1	+0	+4	+11	-2.7
2024	21	A	2 teams	402	372	59	14	2	8	12	189	14	7	3	.159	.214	.272	.485	.113	.291	47	3	.209	18	-37	+0	+0	+4	+11	-2.2
2025	22	A+	2 teams	507	473	101	15	1	17	13	156	13	4	1	.214	.255	.357	.612	.144	.275	31	3	.261	58	-24	+0	+0	+5	+14	-0.4
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	23	AA	Altoona Curve	46	43	9	1	0	2	3	10	0	0	1	.209	.261	.372	.633	.163	.226	22	7	.264	60	-2	-0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
ROS	23	MLB	PIT	274	257	51	8	1	8	10	93	5	2	1	.198	.243	.331	.573	.132	.272	34	4	.254	53	-15	+0	+0	+3	+8	-0.4
TOT	23	MLB	PIT	320	300	60	9	1	10	13	103	5	2	2	.200	.245	.337	.582	.137	.266	32	4	.256	54	-17	-0	+0	+3	+9	-0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	24	MLB 11%	PIT	538	498	104	17	2	17	25	165	10	5	3	.209	.261	.353	.614	.145	.270	31	5	.272	66	-20	-0	+0	+6	+15	0.0
2028	25	MLB 26%	PIT	568	523	112	19	2	19	30	170	10	5	3	.214	.270	.367	.637	.153	.273	30	5	.281	73	-17	-0	+0	+6	+16	0.5
2029	26	MLB 44%	PIT	585	537	116	19	2	20	33	172	10	6	3	.216	.274	.371	.645	.155	.275	29	6	.286	77	-15	+0	+0	+6	+17	0.8
2030	27	MLB 59%	PIT	591	542	118	20	2	20	34	174	10	6	3	.218	.276	.373	.649	.155	.275	29	6	.287	78	-15	+0	+0	+6	+17	0.8
2031	28	MLB 69%	PIT	590	540	116	19	2	20	35	175	10	5	3	.215	.275	.369	.644	.154	.275	30	6	.286	77	-15	-0	-1	+6	+17	0.7
2032	29	MLB 77%	PIT	583	534	114	19	2	19	34	174	10	4	3	.213	.273	.363	.637	.150	.274	30	6	.284	75	-16	-0	-1	+6	+17	0.5
2033	30	MLB 85%	PIT	574	525	111	18	2	19	34	173	10	4	2	.211	.272	.362	.634	.150	.273	30	6	.281	73	-17	+0	-2	+6	+16	0.3
2034	31	MLB 91%	PIT	561	514	107	18	1	18	33	172	9	1	2	.208	.268	.352	.620	.144	.271	31	6	.277	70	-19	-1	-3	+6	+16	-0.0
2035	32	MLB	PIT	543	497	102	17	1	17	32	169	9	1	2	.205	.266	.346	.612	.141	.269	31	6	.272	67	-21	-1	-4	+6	+15	-0.3
2036	33	MLB	PIT	514	471	94	15	1	15	30	164	8	1	1	.200	.259	.331	.591	.132	.268	32	6	.267	62	-22	-0	-4	+6	+15	-0.6
2037	34	MLB	PIT	466	429	83	13	1	13	27	152	7	1	0	.193	.253	.319	.572	.126	.266	33	6	.260	57	-22	+0	-5	+5	+13	-0.9
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8066	7417	1494	250	23	237	414	2621	159	70	41	.201	.259	.337	.596	.136	.273	32	5	.264	60	-362	-2	-20	+86	+229	-7.1
/ 162G	—			650	598	120	20	2	19	33	211	13	6	3	.201	.258	.336	.594	.135	.272	32	5	.264	60	-29	+0	-2	+7	+18	-0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL PIT Black	192	173	23	5	1	0	11	56	7	6	4	.133	.215	.173	.388	.040	.195	29	6	.189	3	-21	-0	—	—	+5	-1.6
2022	19	ROK	FCL Pirates	175	155	41	9	0	5	10	43	8	4	1	.265	.341	.419	.760	.155	.330	25	6	.339	117	+3	+0	—	—	+5	0.9
2023	20	A	Bradenton Marauders	215	196	37	4	0	2	13	84	2	1	0	.189	.246	.240	.486	.051	.310	39	6	.223	29	-17	+0	—	—	+6	-1.1
2023	20	ROK	FCL Pirates	188	165	47	11	1	2	14	43	7	7	6	.285	.366	.400	.766	.115	.369	23	7	.344	121	+5	-1	—	—	+5	0.9
2024	21	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	35	32	4	0	1	0	0	14	2	0	0	.125	.176	.188	.364	.062	.222	40	0	.166	-15	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2024	21	A	Bradenton Marauders	367	336	75	19	1	12	16	118	12	7	3	.223	.283	.393	.676	.170	.306	32	4	.299	87	-5	+0	—	—	+10	0.5
2025	22	AA	Altoona Curve	118	110	23	7	0	3	3	26	2	0	0	.209	.243	.355	.598	.145	.241	22	3	.259	56	-6	+0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2025	22	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	389	354	94	13	1	18	19	92	11	4	1	.266	.323	.460	.783	.195	.306	24	5	.342	120	+9	+0	—	—	+11	2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Javier Rivas (OGILVIE)	23	45	55	45	20	.194/.239/.320	.126	.278	9	3	36%	3%	51	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gabriel Quintana 2016 · AA	23	42→44	48→55	41→45	32	.217/.245/.358	.141	.297	17	4	33%	3%	62	-0.9	.205/.235/.359	.154	.289	18	4	35%	3%	59	-1.1	.193/.225/.347	.154	.276	19	2	37%	3%	48	-1.2
✕Alex Jackson 2019 · AAA	23	37→36	48→60	44→30	34	.192/.249/.334	.142	.288	16	2	38%	5%	58	-1.2	.190/.258/.378	.188	.282	26	4	42%	5%	75	-0.0	.196/.267/.378	.181	.267	24	2	35%	6%	74	-0.0
✕Joe Dunand 2019 · AA	23	41→46	46→50	45	38	.208/.260/.336	.128	.285	15	4	32%	5%	63	-0.8	.202/.257/.307	.105	.284	10	4	31%	5%	54	-1.4	.194/.266/.333	.139	.282	16	5	35%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Rodolfo Castro 2021 · A	22	36→42	48→55	46→50	34	.192/.230/.332	.140	.264	16	6	34%	4%	49	-1.8	.213/.267/.378	.165	.281	21	8	31%	6%	77	+0.1	.207/.276/.361	.154	.269	19	11	30%	7%	74	-0.1
✕Cristian Santana 2021 · AA	24	44→48	46→50	44→30	32	.224/.247/.346	.122	.301	16	3	32%	3%	59	-1.1	.242/.273/.343	.101	.321	10	3	27%	4%	69	-0.4	.246/.279/.338	.092	.325	9	1	27%	4%	67	-0.4
✕Rodolfo Durán 2021 · A	23	38	49→55	46→40	36	.205/.240/.344	.139	.267	18	4	31%	4%	56	-1.3	.202/.241/.338	.136	.264	16	4	29%	4%	55	-1.4	.224/.267/.382	.158	.275	19	3	26%	5%	74	-0.0
✕Brandon Barnes 2010 · AA	24	41→51	45→55	42→50	33	.205/.242/.326	.121	.296	12	5	34%	4%	52	-1.6	.208/.254/.358	.150	.280	17	10	31%	5%	66	-0.6	.244/.289/.369	.125	.331	12	16	29%	5%	80	+0.3
✕Quincy Latimore 2012 · AA	23	40→42	46→50	44→50	34	.204/.249/.336	.132	.288	14	6	34%	4%	58	-1.2	.210/.262/.339	.129	.285	14	10	31%	6%	65	-0.7	.217/.269/.354	.137	.281	15	10	28%	6%	68	-0.3
✕Zach Green 2017 · A	23	42→43	44→60	45→40	35	.206/.255/.320	.114	.302	11	4	35%	4%	56	-1.3	.204/.263/.358	.154	.322	18	3	40%	6%	70	-0.3	.196/.262/.382	.186	.299	23	1	41%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Josh Phegley 2011 · AA	23	41→48	47→60	45→40	36	.213/.251/.339	.126	.280	16	4	30%	4%	59	-1.1	.223/.261/.341	.118	.267	13	4	21%	4%	64	-0.8	.235/.277/.425	.190	.256	24	1	19%	4%	92	+0.8
✕Travis Demeritte 2018 · AA	23	37→43	48→60	48→50	38	.189/.250/.335	.146	.297	16	9	40%	7%	58	-1.2	.202/.267/.367	.165	.295	19	7	36%	8%	74	-0.1	.204/.271/.391	.188	.288	24	7	37%	8%	79	+0.2
✕Yu Chang 2019 · AAA	23	40→44	48→50	48→45	39	.205/.264/.353	.148	.287	16	8	33%	6%	69	-0.4	.217/.272/.361	.144	.294	15	7	30%	6%	74	-0.1	.213/.268/.374	.161	.271	20	6	29%	6%	75	-0.0
✕Sam Huff 2020 · A	22	36→40	48→55	45	30	.189/.231/.327	.138	.297	17	6	42%	4%	48	-1.9	.210/.257/.375	.165	.328	23	4	41%	5%	72	-0.2	.214/.277/.391	.177	.310	27	1	38%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Carlos De La Cruz 2023 · AA	23	41→44	48→50	49→45	33	.201/.255/.341	.140	.322	16	7	41%	5%	63	-0.9	.210/.267/.348	.138	.325	16	6	38%	6%	69	-0.4	.201/.258/.333	.132	.315	15	6	39%	6%	58	-1.0
✕Mario Feliciano 2022 · AAA	23	41→47	45	48→40	32	.205/.247/.325	.121	.304	14	5	37%	4%	54	-1.4	.227/.271/.319	.092	.283	8	5	22%	4%	63	-0.9	.230/.272/.308	.078	.284	6	2	20%	4%	56	-0.6
✕Jorge Alfaro 2016 · AA	23	41→51	47→50	47→50	33	.209/.261/.348	.139	.299	15	8	34%	4%	67	-0.5	.229/.272/.349	.120	.341	13	4	35%	4%	71	-0.3	.259/.315/.406	.147	.380	19	6	35%	5%	97	+0.8
✕Sebastian Valle 2013 · AAA	23	42→47	45	39→40	33	.213/.237/.330	.117	.292	14	2	32%	3%	50	-1.7	.204/.232/.313	.109	.277	12	3	30%	3%	43	-2.2	.220/.273/.342	.122	.295	13	2	29%	6%	67	-0.3
✕Sandro Fabian 2021 · A	23	39→45	44→55	45	38	.198/.254/.311	.113	.271	13	5	31%	5%	54	-1.4	.226/.268/.393	.167	.263	22	4	23%	4%	82	+0.5	.223/.272/.390	.167	.250	20	4	20%	5%	79	+0.2
●Will Middlebrooks 2012 · AAA	23	44→46	46→60	48→45	35	.219/.261/.349	.130	.321	14	7	36%	5%	66	-0.6	.238/.280/.404	.166	.300	22	7	28%	5%	89	+1.0	.232/.277/.395	.163	.280	23	5	26%	5%	81	+0.3
✕Todd Glaesmann 2014 · AA	23	42→44	44→50	50	35	.209/.250/.324	.115	.288	11	7	31%	4%	55	-1.4	.211/.245/.342	.131	.280	13	8	29%	3%	58	-1.2	.206/.236/.350	.145	.264	16	7	29%	3%	53	-0.8

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)