Javier Rivas
SS Altoona Curve| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+/APIT | 402 | .215/.274/.375 | 12 | 7 | 22 | — | .158/.211/.265 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA/A+PIT | 507 | .252/.305/.435 | 21 | 4 | 63 | — | .216/.256/.362 |
| 2026 | 23 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 350 | .235/.280/.404 | 10 | 3 | 60 | — | .195/.229/.323 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBPIT | 4 | .198/.233/.327 | 0 | 0 | 56 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 25 | MLBPIT | 70 | .202/.240/.338 | 2 | 1 | 61 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 26 | MLBPIT | 123 | .205/.245/.345 | 4 | 1 | 65 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 55
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL PIT Black | — | 192 | 173 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 56 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 133 | 215 | 173 | 388 | 40 | 195 | 29 | 6 | 189 | -38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Pirates | — | 175 | 155 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 43 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 265 | 341 | 419 | 760 | 155 | 330 | 25 | 6 | 339 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 215 | 196 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 84 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 189 | 246 | 240 | 486 | 51 | 310 | 39 | 6 | 223 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Pirates | — | 188 | 165 | 47 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 43 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 285 | 366 | 400 | 766 | 115 | 369 | 23 | 7 | 344 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 35 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 176 | 188 | 364 | 62 | 222 | 40 | 0 | 166 | -29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 367 | 336 | 75 | 19 | 1 | 12 | 16 | 118 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 223 | 283 | 393 | 676 | 170 | 306 | 32 | 4 | 299 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 118 | 110 | 23 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 243 | 355 | 598 | 145 | 241 | 22 | 3 | 259 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 389 | 354 | 94 | 13 | 1 | 18 | 19 | 92 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 266 | 323 | 460 | 783 | 195 | 306 | 24 | 5 | 342 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 313 | 293 | 65 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 83 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 222 | 265 | 389 | 654 | 167 | 271 | 27 | 5 | 286 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | INTL | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 37 | 34 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 353 | 405 | 529 | 935 | 176 | 444 | 19 | 5 | 413 | 165 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL PIT Black | — | 192 | 177 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 71 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 73 | 141 | 90 | 232 | 17 | 120 | 37 | 4 | 112 | -38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Pirates | — | 175 | 159 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 58 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 189 | 254 | 302 | 556 | 113 | 248 | 33 | 3 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 215 | 200 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 110 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 150 | 194 | 180 | 374 | 30 | 300 | 51 | 4 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Pirates | — | 188 | 171 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 65 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 193 | 258 | 263 | 521 | 70 | 287 | 35 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 35 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 94 | 147 | 156 | 303 | 62 | 196 | 51 | 0 | 126 | -29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 367 | 341 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 164 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 164 | 217 | 276 | 493 | 111 | 272 | 45 | 3 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 118 | 111 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 217 | 324 | 542 | 135 | 218 | 29 | 2 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 389 | 362 | 81 | 10 | 1 | 14 | 11 | 121 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 224 | 268 | 373 | 641 | 149 | 280 | 31 | 3 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 313 | 297 | 58 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 101 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 195 | 229 | 323 | 552 | 128 | 260 | 32 | 4 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL PIT Black | — | 192 | 177 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 71 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 73 | 141 | 90 | 232 | 17 | 121 | 37 | 4 | 112 | -38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL PIT Black | — | 192 | 173 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 56 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 133 | 215 | 173 | 388 | 40 | 195 | 29 | 6 | 189 | -38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Pirates | — | 175 | 159 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 58 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 189 | 254 | 302 | 556 | 113 | 263 | 33 | 3 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Pirates | — | 175 | 155 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 43 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 265 | 341 | 419 | 760 | 155 | 330 | 25 | 6 | 339 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 403 | 370 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 175 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 173 | 229 | 230 | 459 | 57 | 310 | 43 | 4 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 403 | 361 | 84 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 127 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 233 | 302 | 313 | 615 | 80 | 340 | 32 | 7 | 279 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 402 | 373 | 59 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 182 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 158 | 211 | 265 | 476 | 107 | 279 | 45 | 3 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 402 | 368 | 79 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 16 | 132 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 215 | 274 | 375 | 649 | 160 | 299 | 33 | 4 | 288 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 473 | 102 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 13 | 155 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 216 | 257 | 362 | 618 | 146 | 277 | 31 | 3 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 507 | 464 | 117 | 20 | 1 | 21 | 22 | 118 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 252 | 305 | 435 | 740 | 183 | 290 | 23 | 4 | 323 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 350 | 332 | 64 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 113 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 193 | 228 | 319 | 547 | 127 | 262 | 32 | 3 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 350 | 327 | 77 | 19 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 90 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 235 | 280 | 404 | 683 | 168 | 291 | 26 | 5 | 300 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL PIT Black | — | 192 | 176 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 71 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 74 | 141 | 91 | 232 | 17 | 120 | 37 | 4 | 112 | -38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Pirates | — | 175 | 159 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 58 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 189 | 254 | 302 | 556 | 113 | 248 | 33 | 3 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 403 | 373 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 175 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 172 | 229 | 228 | 457 | 56 | 294 | 43 | 4 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 402 | 374 | 59 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 182 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 158 | 211 | 265 | 476 | 107 | 265 | 45 | 3 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 476 | 102 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 13 | 155 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 214 | 257 | 359 | 616 | 145 | 266 | 31 | 3 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 350 | 332 | 64 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 113 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 193 | 228 | 319 | 547 | 127 | 260 | 32 | 3 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 402 | 374 | 59 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 182 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 158 | 211 | 265 | 476 | 107 | 265 | 45 | 3 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 476 | 102 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 13 | 155 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 214 | 257 | 359 | 616 | 145 | 266 | 31 | 3 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 350 | 332 | 64 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 113 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 193 | 228 | 319 | 547 | 127 | 260 | 32 | 3 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | PIT | 2% | 363 | 344 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 111 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 199 | 235 | 334 | 568 | 134 | 259 | 31 | 3 | 251 | 56 | -19 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | PIT | 2% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 233 | 327 | 560 | 129 | 259 | 25 | 0 | 248 | 56 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | PIT | 31% | 225 | 213 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 204 | 241 | 345 | 587 | 142 | 261 | 30 | 3 | 259 | 61 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | PIT | 45% | 275 | 259 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 82 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 206 | 246 | 353 | 599 | 146 | 263 | 30 | 4 | 264 | 65 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | PIT | 49% | 300 | 281 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 88 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 249 | 353 | 602 | 145 | 264 | 29 | 4 | 266 | 66 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | PIT | 31% | 70 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 202 | 240 | 338 | 578 | 136 | 261 | 30 | 3 | 256 | 61 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | PIT | 45% | 123 | 116 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 245 | 345 | 590 | 140 | 263 | 30 | 3 | 261 | 65 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | PIT | 49% | 148 | 139 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 248 | 346 | 593 | 140 | 264 | 30 | 4 | 263 | 66 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 341 | 322 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 102 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 202 | 242 | 342 | 584 | 140 | 259 | 30 | 4 | 261 | 43 | -14 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +7 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 614 | 124 | 21 | 4 | 19 | 23 | 194 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 202 | 243 | 342 | 585 | 140 | 259 | 30 | 4 | 261 | 43 | -27 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3018 | 2815 | 521 | 92 | 11 | 70 | 102 | 1050 | 68 | 40 | 19 | 185 | 231 | 300 | 532 | 115 | 263 | 35 | 3 | 231 | 43 | -44 | +0 | +0 | +11 | +21 | -1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 606 | 112 | 20 | 2 | 15 | 22 | 226 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 185 | 232 | 299 | 530 | 114 | 262 | 35 | 3 | 231 | 43 | -29 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAltoona Curve · 313 PAwOBA .281 → .239 (−42)K% 26.5% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.52% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 3.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.64% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.017 | ×1.012 | 18.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.017 | ×1.012 | 5.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.017 | ×1.012 | 1.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 3.76% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .281 → .239; ISO .167 → .133; BABIP .271 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 389 PAwOBA .335 → .274 (−61)K% 23.7% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.65% | ÷0.994 | ×1.310 | — | — | 31.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.63% | ÷0.980 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 2.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.83% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 2.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.66% | ÷0.950 | ×0.870 | ×1.041 | ×0.998 | 22.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.96% | ÷0.998 | ×0.780 | ×1.041 | ×0.998 | 4.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.38% | ÷1.025 | ×0.850 | ×1.041 | ×0.998 | 0.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.87% | ÷1.048 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 5.75% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 105, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .335 → .274; ISO .195 → .154; BABIP .306 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAltoona Curve · 118 PAwOBA .256 → .218 (−38)K% 22.0% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.03% | ÷0.947 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.54% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 1.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.48% | ÷1.024 | ×0.970 | ×0.974 | ×1.027 | 14.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.036 | ×0.860 | ×0.974 | ×1.027 | 6.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.974 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷0.891 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 3.21% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 105, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 89, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .256 → .218; ISO .145 → .121; BABIP .241 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ABradenton Marauders · 367 PAwOBA .291 → .208 (−83)K% 32.2% → 44.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.15% | ÷0.975 | ×1.360 | — | — | 44.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.36% | ÷1.010 | ×0.690 | — | — | 2.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.27% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 2.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.72% | ÷0.977 | ×0.920 | ×1.026 | — | 19.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.72% | ÷1.124 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | — | 6.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.46% | ÷1.052 | ×0.910 | ×1.026 | — | 0.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.50% | ÷1.046 | ×0.800 | — | — | 4.21% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 95, 2B 125, 3B 110, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .291 → .208; ISO .170 → .109; BABIP .306 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 35 PAwOBA .162 → .126 (−36)K% 40.0% → 50.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.00% | ÷1.029 | ×1.310 | — | — | 50.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.974 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.71% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 4.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.024 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 14.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.950 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.56% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 5.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.106 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 106, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .162 → .126; ISO .062 → .052; BABIP .222 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ABradenton Marauders · 215 PAwOBA .220 → .173 (−47)K% 39.1% → 51.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.07% | ÷1.037 | ×1.360 | — | — | 51.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.05% | ÷0.994 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 4.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.68% | ÷0.958 | ×0.920 | ×1.012 | ×1.015 | 27.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷0.949 | ×0.830 | ×1.012 | ×1.015 | 3.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.012 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.79% | ÷0.971 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.49% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 92, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .220 → .173; ISO .051 → .037; BABIP .310 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Pirates · 188 PAwOBA .339 → .232 (−107)K% 22.9% → 34.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.87% | ÷0.949 | ×1.440 | — | — | 34.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.45% | ÷1.002 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 4.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.72% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 2.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.05% | ÷0.984 | ×0.820 | ×0.993 | ×0.985 | 22.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.02% | ÷1.026 | ×0.720 | ×0.993 | ×0.985 | 6.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.82% | ÷0.966 | ×0.720 | ×0.993 | ×0.985 | 0.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.64% | ÷0.925 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 1.36% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 97, 2B 105, 3B 93, K 90, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .339 → .232; ISO .115 → .076; BABIP .369 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Pirates · 175 PAwOBA .333 → .235 (−99)K% 24.6% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.57% | ÷1.069 | ×1.440 | — | — | 33.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.71% | ÷0.988 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 3.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.57% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 3.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.11% | ÷1.005 | ×0.820 | ×0.969 | ×0.995 | 18.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.04% | ÷1.027 | ×0.720 | ×0.969 | ×0.995 | 5.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.969 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.46% | ÷0.977 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 3.55% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 101, 2B 105, 3B 100, K 114, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .333 → .235; ISO .155 → .109; BABIP .330 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .