Gavin LaValley
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | AA/A+2 orgs | 531 | .269/.324/.443 | 18 | 0 | 74 | — | .227/.268/.371 |
| 2018 | 23 | AAMIA | 446 | .209/.295/.344 | 13 | 2 | 45 | — | .174/.238/.285 |
| 2019 | 24 | AACIN | 449 | .254/.341/.396 | 10 | 2 | 59 | — | .203/.271/.311 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 19 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | — | 241 | 210 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 54 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 276 | 364 | 429 | 793 | 152 | 342 | 22 | 11 | 353 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A | Dayton Dragons | — | 530 | 469 | 125 | 29 | 1 | 4 | 50 | 114 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 267 | 346 | 358 | 704 | 92 | 341 | 22 | 9 | 320 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | — | 374 | 338 | 93 | 29 | 2 | 11 | 29 | 72 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 275 | 338 | 470 | 808 | 195 | 317 | 19 | 8 | 353 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | Dayton Dragons | — | 22 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 318 | 263 | 581 | 53 | 333 | 32 | 14 | 277 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 272 | 247 | 62 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 251 | 310 | 352 | 662 | 101 | 326 | 25 | 7 | 296 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | — | 259 | 236 | 68 | 14 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 49 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 288 | 339 | 538 | 877 | 250 | 299 | 19 | 6 | 375 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 446 | 393 | 82 | 14 | 0 | 13 | 44 | 121 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 209 | 295 | 344 | 638 | 135 | 261 | 27 | 10 | 288 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 449 | 394 | 100 | 22 | 2 | 10 | 47 | 111 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 254 | 341 | 396 | 737 | 142 | 327 | 25 | 10 | 331 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 241 | 221 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 78 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 190 | 251 | 285 | 536 | 95 | 266 | 32 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 530 | 485 | 104 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 161 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 214 | 276 | 282 | 558 | 68 | 303 | 30 | 6 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 374 | 346 | 80 | 25 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 102 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 281 | 387 | 668 | 156 | 290 | 27 | 6 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 22 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 227 | 200 | 427 | 50 | 297 | 45 | 9 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 272 | 254 | 53 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 84 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 250 | 287 | 537 | 79 | 290 | 31 | 4 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 259 | 240 | 59 | 12 | 0 | 13 | 11 | 70 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 246 | 287 | 458 | 746 | 212 | 275 | 27 | 4 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 446 | 407 | 71 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 30 | 143 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 174 | 238 | 285 | 523 | 111 | 228 | 32 | 7 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 449 | 408 | 83 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 140 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 203 | 271 | 311 | 583 | 108 | 279 | 31 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 241 | 221 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 78 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 190 | 251 | 285 | 536 | 95 | 270 | 32 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK RAW | Billings Mustangs | — | 241 | 210 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 54 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 276 | 364 | 429 | 793 | 152 | 342 | 22 | 11 | 353 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 530 | 485 | 104 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 161 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 214 | 276 | 282 | 558 | 68 | 311 | 30 | 6 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A RAW | Dayton Dragons | — | 530 | 469 | 125 | 29 | 1 | 4 | 50 | 114 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 267 | 346 | 358 | 704 | 92 | 341 | 22 | 9 | 320 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 396 | 366 | 82 | 25 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 111 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 276 | 372 | 647 | 148 | 292 | 28 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 396 | 357 | 97 | 30 | 2 | 11 | 32 | 79 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 272 | 337 | 459 | 796 | 188 | 317 | 20 | 8 | 349 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 531 | 494 | 112 | 26 | 0 | 15 | 23 | 153 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 268 | 370 | 639 | 144 | 290 | 29 | 4 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 531 | 483 | 130 | 30 | 0 | 18 | 34 | 116 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 269 | 324 | 443 | 767 | 174 | 313 | 22 | 6 | 334 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 446 | 407 | 71 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 30 | 143 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 174 | 238 | 285 | 523 | 111 | 233 | 32 | 7 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA RAW | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 446 | 393 | 82 | 14 | 0 | 13 | 44 | 121 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 209 | 295 | 344 | 638 | 135 | 261 | 27 | 10 | 288 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 449 | 408 | 83 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 140 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 203 | 271 | 311 | 583 | 108 | 286 | 31 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA RAW | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 449 | 394 | 100 | 22 | 2 | 10 | 47 | 111 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 254 | 341 | 396 | 737 | 142 | 327 | 25 | 10 | 331 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 241 | 221 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 78 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 190 | 251 | 285 | 536 | 95 | 266 | 32 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 530 | 484 | 104 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 161 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 215 | 276 | 283 | 559 | 68 | 303 | 30 | 6 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 396 | 367 | 82 | 25 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 111 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 276 | 371 | 646 | 147 | 290 | 28 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 531 | 498 | 112 | 26 | 0 | 15 | 23 | 153 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 268 | 367 | 636 | 143 | 283 | 29 | 4 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 446 | 409 | 71 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 30 | 143 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 174 | 238 | 284 | 522 | 110 | 228 | 32 | 7 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 449 | 408 | 83 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 140 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 203 | 271 | 311 | 583 | 108 | 279 | 31 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2593 | 2381 | 494 | 108 | 5 | 50 | 158 | 786 | 27 | 11 | 4 | 207 | 265 | 320 | 585 | 113 | 283 | 30 | 6 | 257 | 60 | -122 | +1 | +0 | +9 | +56 | -5.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 124 | 27 | 1 | 13 | 40 | 197 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 208 | 266 | 322 | 588 | 114 | 282 | 30 | 6 | 257 | 60 | -31 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 449 PAwOBA .323 → .255 (−68)K% 24.7% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.72% | ÷0.967 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.24% | ÷0.949 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 7.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.11% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.32% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 20.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.77% | ÷1.160 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 5.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.71% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.53% | ÷0.979 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.88% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 95, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 93, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .323 → .255; ISO .142 → .109; BABIP .327 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 446 PAwOBA .282 → .235 (−47)K% 27.1% → 32.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.13% | ÷1.030 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.42% | ÷0.967 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 6.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.90% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.22% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 17.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.15% | ÷1.039 | ×0.910 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 4.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.006 | ×0.880 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.78% | ÷0.909 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 4.26% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 105, 2B 108, 3B 101, K 106, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .282 → .235; ISO .135 → .118; BABIP .261 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 272 PAwOBA .292 → .236 (−56)K% 24.6% → 30.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.63% | ÷0.979 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.99% | ÷1.095 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 4.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.89% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×0.962 | ×1.027 | 21.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.89% | ÷0.997 | ×0.910 | ×0.962 | ×1.027 | 8.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.943 | ×0.880 | ×0.962 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.67% | ÷1.399 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.98% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 180, 1B 104, 2B 99, 3B 89, K 96, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .292 → .236; ISO .101 → .077; BABIP .326 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Daytona Tortugas · 259 PAwOBA .370 → .321 (−50)K% 18.9% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.92% | ÷0.996 | ×1.420 | — | — | 26.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.41% | ÷0.964 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 4.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.86% | ÷0.981 | ×0.920 | ×0.984 | ×0.998 | 19.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.49% | ÷1.009 | ×0.960 | ×0.984 | ×0.998 | 7.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.951 | ×0.810 | ×0.984 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.02% | ÷0.932 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 7.56% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 96, 2B 102, 3B 90, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .370 → .321; ISO .250 → .221; BABIP .299 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Daytona Tortugas · 374 PAwOBA .347 → .286 (−61)K% 19.3% → 27.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.25% | ÷1.004 | ×1.420 | — | — | 27.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.75% | ÷1.059 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 5.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.17% | ÷0.983 | ×0.920 | ×0.992 | ×1.012 | 18.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.90% | ÷1.061 | ×0.960 | ×0.992 | ×1.012 | 9.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.75% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.992 | ×1.012 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.14% | ÷1.063 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 3.47% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 97, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 101, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .347 → .286; ISO .195 → .157; BABIP .317 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ADayton Dragons · 22 PAwOBA .271 → .197 (−73)K% 31.8% → 43.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.82% | ÷0.986 | ×1.360 | — | — | 43.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.64% | ÷1.052 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | — | — | 22.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.966 | ×0.830 | — | — | 7.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.153 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 104, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 97, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .271 → .197; ISO .053 → .039; BABIP .333 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ADayton Dragons · 530 PAwOBA .314 → .248 (−66)K% 21.5% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.51% | ÷0.966 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.25% | ÷1.002 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.32% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.63% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×0.996 | ×1.015 | 23.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.17% | ÷1.037 | ×0.830 | ×0.996 | ×1.015 | 6.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.28% | ÷1.137 | ×0.910 | ×0.996 | ×1.015 | 0.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.13% | ÷1.078 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.85% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 127, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .314 → .248; ISO .092 → .068; BABIP .341 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ROKBillings Mustangs · 241 PAwOBA .345 → .241 (−104)K% 22.4% → 32.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.41% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 32.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.995 | 6.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.24% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.990 | ×0.995 | 20.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×0.995 | 4.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×0.995 | 0.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.995 | 2.87% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .345 → .241; ISO .152 → .104; BABIP .342 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).