Luis R. Rodriguez

Luis R. Rodriguez P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 23 LHP 6'3" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION16 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%23.3%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4050

CMD3045

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	4	12	57	16	5	1	57%	1.8	28.1%	8.8%	19.3%	1.8%	5.11	2.80	—
2021	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	4	12	57	16	5	1	57%	1.8	28.1%	8.8%	19.3%	1.8%	5.11	2.78	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	5	11	47	10	7	1	83%	1.8	21.3%	14.9%	6.4%	2.1%	4.22	4.36	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	5	11	47	10	7	1	83%	1.8	21.3%	14.9%	6.4%	2.1%	4.22	4.36	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	5	11	47	10	7	1	83%	1.8	21.3%	14.9%	6.4%	2.1%	4.22	4.41	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.16	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.16	—
2025	22	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	17	6	16	83	26	20	0	35%	0.9	19.9%	29.7%	-9.8%	0.0%	6.89	5.19	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	17	6	16	83	26	20	0	35%	0.9	19.9%	29.7%	-9.8%	0.0%	6.89	5.19	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	NYM	3	3	3	10	6	1	0	100%	0.9	60.0%	10.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.70	—
2026	23	A RAW	NYM	2	2	1	10	4	3	0	100%	0.7	40.0%	30.0%	10.0%	0.0%	13.50	3.52	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	NYM	11	1	11	58	15	15	0	9%	1.0	25.9%	25.9%	0.0%	0.0%	8.44	4.19	—
2026	23	AA RAW	NYM	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.94	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	NYM	5	0	6	24	6	3	1	0%	1.1	23.3%	13.9%	9.4%	3.0%	4.90	4.90	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	21	107	32	23	1	—	—	29.6%	21.8%	7.7%	0.7%	6.37	5.11	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYM	60	0	63	266	64	33	8	0%	1.1	23.9%	12.4%	11.4%	2.9%	4.73	4.66	-0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	61	0	64	270	65	31	8	0%	1.0	24.2%	11.5%	12.7%	2.9%	4.59	4.51	+0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYM	61	0	64	270	66	31	8	0%	1.0	24.4%	11.4%	13.0%	2.9%	4.52	4.48	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYM	60	0	63	266	65	30	8	0%	1.0	24.3%	11.4%	12.9%	3.0%	4.51	4.51	+0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYM	26	0	27	114	27	14	3	0%	1.0	23.9%	12.4%	11.4%	2.9%	4.73	4.66	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	40	0	42	177	43	20	5	0%	1.1	24.2%	11.5%	12.7%	2.9%	4.59	4.51	+0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYM	49	0	51	215	52	25	6	0%	1.0	24.4%	11.4%	13.0%	2.9%	4.52	4.48	+0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYM	51	0	54	228	55	26	7	0%	1.1	24.3%	11.4%	12.9%	3.0%	4.51	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		166	0	174	734	178	85	22	0%	1.0	24.2%	11.6%	12.6%	2.9%	4.56	4.14	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	205	98	25	0%	1.1	24.2%	11.6%	12.6%	2.9%	4.56	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		31	16	40	191	44	38	2	52%	1.3	22.8%	19.7%	3.1%	1.0%	5.45	4.25	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	81	200	963	219	190	10	52%	1.3	22.8%	19.7%	3.1%	1.0%	5.45	4.25	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis R. Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	23.3%	13.9%	3.0%	—	4.55	24.2%	12.4%	191	-0.35	—	—	—
Max Roberts L 2021 · 4.85 FIP	24	SW	4.85	19.3%	15.2%	2.6%	.330	4.62	24.5%	8.4%	115	-0.23	4.27	173	73
Dalton Moats L 2018 · 5.87 FIP	23	SW	5.87	19.1%	11.6%	5.3%	.272	4.63	18.6%	11.1%	93	-1.24	3.23	322	71
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	71
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	71
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	71
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	69
Luis Ysla L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	23	SW	4.88	19.6%	12.5%	3.4%	.412	4.47	18.3%	4.3%	208	-0.41	3.75	378	69
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.29	32.8%	19.4%	102	-1.28	3.04	255	69
Andre Wheeler L 2015 · 3.82 FIP	23	SW	3.82	16.8%	11.5%	1.2%	.321	5.17	16.5%	4.4%	87	+1.35	3.82	150	68
Jared Tobey L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	21.0%	12.1%	2.1%	.320	5.43	22.4%	8.2%	73	+1.44	3.99	158	68
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	68
Jeffrey Springs L 2016 · 4.37 FIP	23	SW	4.37	21.0%	10.1%	3.2%	.265	3.59	25.7%	16.0%	233	-0.78	1.36	898	68
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.83	21.4%	10.7%	156	-0.19	2.44	171	67
Brian Flynn L 2016 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	21.3%	11.1%	2.0%	.258	4.39	16.6%	8.2%	198	+0.59	3.80	277	67
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	67
Fred Schlichtholz L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.368	4.13	18.5%	8.4%	80	-0.10	3.49	175	66
Will Mabrey L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	22	SU	4.27	18.5%	12.6%	2.1%	.256	4.27	19.2%	6.6%	62	+0.00	4.14	128	66
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	66
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	66
Jose E. Hernandez L 2021 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	22.9%	12.3%	2.0%	.339	4.34	23.4%	13.3%	144	+0.51	3.58	317	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	63	24.0%	12.1%	1.14	4.65
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33