Yohandy Morales
3B Rochester Red Wings| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AA/AWSH | 307 | .283/.369/.416 | 7 | 5 | 94 | — | .258/.324/.361 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 643 | .284/.355/.470 | 18 | 7 | 105 | — | .244/.302/.375 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAAWSH | 455 | .286/.363/.519 | 25 | 6 | 98 | — | .248/.306/.415 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLBWSH | 47 | .255/.255/.596 | 4 | 1 | 131 | 0.5 | |
| 2027PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBWSH | 63 | .247/.304/.404 | 2 | 3 | 98 | 0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ52% MLB | 26 | MLBWSH | 293 | .247/.305/.404 | 10 | 13 | 98 | 0.8 | |
| 2029PROJ59% MLB | 27 | MLBWSH | 327 | .245/.304/.402 | 11 | 14 | 98 | 0.9 |
Tools · Recent Form · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 17 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 412 | 357 | 769 | 71 | 333 | 12 | 18 | 358 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 80 | 70 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 314 | 400 | 443 | 843 | 129 | 407 | 20 | 10 | 378 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 87 | 77 | 30 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 390 | 453 | 571 | 1.025 | 182 | 500 | 21 | 9 | 445 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 282 | 245 | 66 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 69 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 269 | 363 | 384 | 747 | 114 | 355 | 24 | 11 | 340 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 25 | 24 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 417 | 440 | 750 | 1.190 | 333 | 381 | 4 | 4 | 514 | 167 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 433 | 382 | 95 | 21 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 131 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 249 | 333 | 401 | 733 | 152 | 346 | 30 | 11 | 328 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 142 | 127 | 40 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 315 | 374 | 520 | 894 | 205 | 387 | 23 | 8 | 384 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | INTL | Puerto Rico | — | 68 | 65 | 28 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 431 | 456 | 785 | 1.240 | 354 | 521 | 21 | 4 | 530 | 245 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Washington Nationals | — | 47 | 47 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 255 | 255 | 596 | 851 | 340 | 286 | 32 | 0 | 363 | 131 | +2 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | 0.5 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 455 | 405 | 116 | 19 | 0 | 25 | 43 | 111 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 286 | 363 | 519 | 882 | 232 | 337 | 24 | 9 | 387 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 47 | 47 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 255 | 255 | 596 | 851 | 340 | 286 | 32 | 0 | 363 | 132 | +2 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | 0.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 17 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 353 | 333 | 686 | 67 | 322 | 12 | 12 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 80 | 73 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 274 | 338 | 384 | 721 | 110 | 384 | 28 | 6 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 87 | 80 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 312 | 360 | 450 | 810 | 138 | 431 | 29 | 6 | 342 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 282 | 255 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 83 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 251 | 320 | 345 | 665 | 94 | 356 | 29 | 7 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 25 | 24 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 333 | 360 | 542 | 902 | 208 | 332 | 4 | 4 | 415 | 167 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 433 | 395 | 89 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 153 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 225 | 288 | 342 | 630 | 116 | 337 | 35 | 8 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 142 | 130 | 39 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 40 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 300 | 345 | 477 | 822 | 177 | 393 | 28 | 6 | 358 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 47 | 47 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 255 | 255 | 596 | 851 | 340 | 286 | 32 | 0 | 362 | 131 | +2 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | 0.5 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 455 | 419 | 104 | 16 | 0 | 18 | 29 | 133 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 248 | 306 | 415 | 721 | 167 | 319 | 29 | 6 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 184 | 168 | 48 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 49 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 286 | 344 | 399 | 743 | 113 | 400 | 27 | 7 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 184 | 161 | 56 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 36 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 348 | 426 | 497 | 923 | 149 | 444 | 20 | 10 | 408 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 307 | 279 | 73 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 85 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 262 | 327 | 366 | 692 | 104 | 358 | 28 | 7 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 307 | 269 | 76 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 70 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 283 | 369 | 416 | 786 | 134 | 358 | 23 | 10 | 354 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 643 | 588 | 144 | 32 | 4 | 13 | 46 | 216 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 245 | 303 | 379 | 682 | 134 | 359 | 34 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 643 | 574 | 163 | 37 | 8 | 18 | 60 | 178 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 284 | 355 | 470 | 825 | 186 | 378 | 28 | 9 | 362 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 502 | 466 | 116 | 20 | 0 | 22 | 29 | 148 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 249 | 301 | 433 | 735 | 185 | 316 | 29 | 6 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 502 | 452 | 128 | 23 | 0 | 29 | 43 | 126 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 283 | 353 | 527 | 880 | 243 | 332 | 25 | 9 | 385 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 184 | 167 | 48 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 49 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 287 | 344 | 401 | 745 | 114 | 400 | 27 | 7 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 307 | 277 | 73 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 85 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 264 | 327 | 368 | 695 | 105 | 354 | 28 | 7 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 643 | 589 | 144 | 32 | 4 | 13 | 46 | 216 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 244 | 303 | 379 | 682 | 134 | 351 | 34 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 502 | 462 | 116 | 20 | 0 | 22 | 29 | 148 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 251 | 301 | 437 | 739 | 186 | 316 | 29 | 6 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 307 | 277 | 73 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 85 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 264 | 327 | 368 | 695 | 105 | 354 | 28 | 7 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 643 | 589 | 144 | 32 | 4 | 13 | 46 | 216 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 244 | 303 | 379 | 682 | 134 | 351 | 34 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 502 | 462 | 116 | 20 | 0 | 22 | 29 | 148 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 251 | 301 | 437 | 739 | 186 | 316 | 29 | 6 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | WSH | 30% | 380 | 348 | 86 | 16 | 1 | 12 | 25 | 115 | 4 | 17 | 3 | 247 | 303 | 404 | 708 | 158 | 328 | 30 | 7 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +2 | -1 | +1 | +8 | 0.7 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | WSH | 30% | 63 | 58 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 247 | 304 | 404 | 708 | 158 | 328 | 30 | 6 | 313 | 98 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | 0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | WSH | 52% | 566 | 518 | 128 | 24 | 2 | 18 | 38 | 169 | 5 | 25 | 5 | 246 | 304 | 405 | 709 | 158 | 326 | 30 | 7 | 314 | 98 | -1 | +3 | -1 | +2 | +12 | 1.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | WSH | 59% | 550 | 503 | 124 | 23 | 2 | 18 | 37 | 163 | 5 | 23 | 5 | 245 | 304 | 402 | 706 | 157 | 323 | 30 | 7 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +3 | -1 | +2 | +12 | 1.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | WSH | 63% | 534 | 487 | 119 | 22 | 1 | 17 | 37 | 157 | 5 | 20 | 4 | 243 | 303 | 397 | 700 | 154 | 320 | 29 | 7 | 310 | 96 | -2 | +2 | -1 | +2 | +12 | 1.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB MLE | WSH | 64% | 520 | 474 | 114 | 21 | 1 | 16 | 36 | 153 | 5 | 17 | 4 | 241 | 301 | 391 | 692 | 151 | 317 | 29 | 7 | 307 | 94 | -4 | +2 | -2 | +2 | +11 | 0.9 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB MLE | WSH | 64% | 506 | 462 | 110 | 20 | 1 | 15 | 35 | 148 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 238 | 298 | 384 | 682 | 146 | 313 | 29 | 7 | 303 | 91 | -5 | +2 | -3 | +2 | +11 | 0.6 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB MLE | WSH | 64% | 286 | 262 | 61 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 85 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 233 | 293 | 374 | 667 | 141 | 310 | 30 | 7 | 297 | 87 | -4 | +1 | -3 | +1 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | WSH | 52% | 293 | 268 | 67 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 20 | 87 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 247 | 305 | 404 | 709 | 158 | 326 | 30 | 7 | 314 | 98 | -1 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +6 | 0.8 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | WSH | 59% | 327 | 299 | 74 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 22 | 97 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 245 | 304 | 402 | 706 | 156 | 323 | 30 | 7 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +2 | -0 | +1 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | WSH | 63% | 339 | 310 | 76 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 23 | 100 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 244 | 303 | 397 | 700 | 154 | 321 | 29 | 7 | 311 | 96 | -2 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +7 | 0.8 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB CTX | WSH | 64% | 332 | 303 | 74 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 98 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 241 | 301 | 391 | 692 | 150 | 317 | 30 | 7 | 307 | 94 | -2 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +7 | 0.6 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB CTX | WSH | 64% | 324 | 296 | 71 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 95 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 238 | 298 | 384 | 682 | 146 | 314 | 29 | 7 | 303 | 91 | -3 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +7 | 0.4 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB CTX | WSH | 64% | 183 | 167 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 54 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 234 | 293 | 374 | 667 | 140 | 310 | 30 | 7 | 297 | 87 | -3 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +4 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1845 | 1690 | 412 | 78 | 5 | 61 | 122 | 546 | 17 | 64 | 14 | 244 | 301 | 404 | 705 | 160 | 321 | 30 | 7 | 310 | 95 | -10 | +7 | -7 | +8 | +40 | 4.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 595 | 144 | 27 | 2 | 21 | 43 | 192 | 6 | 23 | 5 | 242 | 300 | 400 | 700 | 158 | 319 | 30 | 7 | 310 | 95 | -3 | +3 | -2 | +3 | +14 | 1.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4808 | 4399 | 1085 | 207 | 17 | 139 | 326 | 1437 | 45 | 133 | 31 | 247 | 305 | 396 | 701 | 150 | 332 | 30 | 7 | 309 | 95 | -17 | +13 | -12 | +13 | +70 | 6.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 595 | 147 | 28 | 2 | 19 | 44 | 194 | 6 | 18 | 4 | 247 | 306 | 397 | 703 | 150 | 332 | 30 | 7 | 309 | 95 | -3 | +3 | -2 | +3 | +14 | 1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 455 PAwOBA .376 → .313 (−63)K% 24.4% → 29.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.40% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.01% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.32% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.032 | ×1.033 | 24.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.032 | ×1.033 | 5.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.032 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 6.15% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .376 → .313; ISO .232 → .171; BABIP .337 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 433 PAwOBA .321 → .279 (−41)K% 30.3% → 35.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.25% | ÷1.028 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.39% | ÷0.978 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 7.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.46% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.30% | ÷0.987 | ×0.930 | ×1.031 | ×1.048 | 24.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.031 | ×1.048 | 7.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.80% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.031 | ×1.048 | 0.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.38% | ÷0.960 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 3.35% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 106, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .321 → .279; ISO .152 → .122; BABIP .346 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 142 PAwOBA .382 → .358 (−23)K% 23.2% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.24% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.75% | ÷0.967 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.53% | ÷1.009 | ×0.970 | ×1.044 | ×1.012 | 25.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.64% | ÷0.887 | ×0.860 | ×1.044 | ×1.012 | 10.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.13% | ÷0.913 | ×0.950 | ×1.044 | ×1.012 | 2.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.26% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 3.49% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 102, 2B 77, 3B 83, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.044.
Result: wOBA .382 → .358; ISO .205 → .190; BABIP .387 → .393. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 282 PAwOBA .332 → .297 (−35)K% 24.5% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.47% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.99% | ÷1.051 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 7.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.77% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.84% | ÷1.010 | ×0.970 | ×1.035 | ×1.027 | 28.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.964 | ×0.860 | ×1.035 | ×1.027 | 5.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.57% | ÷0.915 | ×0.950 | ×1.035 | ×1.027 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.84% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 2.30% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 93, 3B 83, K 102, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .332 → .297; ISO .114 → .099; BABIP .355 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AFredericksburg Nationals · 25 PAwOBA .499 → .415 (−84)K% 4.0% → 5.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 4.00% | ÷1.038 | ×1.360 | — | — | 5.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.00% | ÷1.044 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 2.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.09% | ÷1.024 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.990 | 23.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷0.907 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.990 | 7.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.70% | ÷1.078 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 6.39% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 105, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 108, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .499 → .415; ISO .333 → .260; BABIP .381 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 87 PAwOBA .438 → .342 (−96)K% 20.7% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.69% | ÷0.978 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.20% | ÷1.126 | ×0.690 | — | — | 5.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.51% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×1.007 | — | 27.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.95% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | ×1.007 | — | 13.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.39% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.007 | — | 2.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.917 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 103, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 96, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .438 → .342; ISO .182 → .137; BABIP .500 → .431. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 80 PAwOBA .369 → .313 (−56)K% 20.0% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.973 | ×1.310 | — | — | 26.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 6.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.50% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 1.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.78% | ÷0.981 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 26.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.26% | ÷0.894 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 8.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.70% | ÷0.913 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 3.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.913 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 96, 2B 79, 3B 83, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .369 → .313; ISO .129 → .118; BABIP .407 → .384. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAHarrisburg Senators · 17 PAwOBA .350 → .314 (−37)K% 11.8% → 14.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.005 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.016 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 12.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.013 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.042 | 24.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.033 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.042 | 7.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.935 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.115 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 87, K 101, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .350 → .314; ISO .071 → .064; BABIP .333 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .