Carson Montgomery
P
Fort Wayne TinCaps
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.6 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 40 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 108
ERA4.75
FIP4.75
K%19.9%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%9.9%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 3 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 67% | 2.3 | 33.3% | 20.0% | 13.3% | 3.3% | 3.86 | 4.65 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 3 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 67% | 2.3 | 33.3% | 20.0% | 13.3% | 3.3% | 3.86 | 4.67 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 14 | 14 | 60 | 258 | 56 | 35 | 10 | 100% | 4.3 | 16.7% | 15.6% | 1.1% | 4.8% | 4.65 | 6.32 | -1.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 40 | 169 | 34 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.9% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.9% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.69 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | SD | — | — | 100 | 427 | 90 | 52 | 15 | — | — | 21.0% | 12.2% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 4.69 | 5.69 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.9% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.62 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 42 | 175 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.5% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 42 | 175 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.8% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 40 | 168 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SD | 3 | 3 | 18 | 76 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SD | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.5% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.8% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 32 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 25 | 25 | 149 | 627 | 136 | 58 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.06 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 78 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 17 | 16 | 67 | 288 | 53 | 46 | 14 | 94% | 3.9 | 18.4% | 16.1% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 4.57 | 6.15 | -1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 48 | 200 | 860 | 159 | 138 | 40 | 94% | 3.9 | 18.4% | 16.1% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 4.57 | 6.15 | -1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carson Montgomery (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.75 | 19.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | — | 4.50 | 21.4% | 12.2% | 124 | -0.25 | — | — | — |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 93 |
| Marcelo Perez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 217 | +0.97 | 4.02 | 285 | 88 |
| Trent Palmer R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 86 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 86 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 85 |
| Brandon White R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.11 | 16.7% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .264 | 4.10 | 17.7% | 10.4% | 245 | -1.01 | 3.90 | 264 | 85 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.82 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.12 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.30 | 3.36 | 432 | 85 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .241 | 5.26 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 176 | +1.61 | 3.65 | 211 | 84 |
| Bryce Jarvis R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.78 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 3.8% | .276 | 5.00 | 18.0% | 6.0% | 296 | +0.22 | 4.22 | 513 | 84 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 83 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 83 |
| Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 83 |
| Tyler Skulina R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 18.3% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .242 | 5.24 | 13.0% | -1.0% | 147 | +0.78 | 4.46 | 222 | 82 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.01 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.47 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.54 | 3.95 | 411 | 82 |
| Glenn Sparkman R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.90 | 20.0% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .296 | 3.61 | 15.9% | 10.9% | 207 | -0.29 | 3.48 | 363 | 82 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.00 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .236 | 4.59 | 22.3% | 3.9% | 180 | -0.41 | 4.20 | 311 | 82 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 81 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 81 |
| Cade Kuehler R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.21 | 15.5% | 11.2% | 1.8% | .266 | 6.79 | 14.5% | 2.4% | 73 | +2.58 | 4.21 | 123 | 80 |
| Cole Wiper R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.38 | 14.6% | 10.5% | 4.0% | .343 | 4.33 | 15.6% | 5.2% | 136 | -1.05 | 3.85 | 170 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 41 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 1.18 | 4.56 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |