Carson Montgomery

Carson Montgomery P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 215 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 113

ERA5.08

FIP5.08

K%19.9%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%7.4%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF—50

CTRL—45

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	3	2	7	30	10	6	1	67%	2.3	33.3%	20.0%	13.3%	3.3%	3.86	4.65	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	3	2	7	30	10	6	1	67%	2.3	33.3%	20.0%	13.3%	3.3%	3.86	4.65	—
2024	21	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	3	2	7	30	10	6	1	67%	2.3	33.3%	20.0%	13.3%	3.3%	3.86	4.67	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	24	23	96	416	81	53	17	96%	4.0	15.5%	14.5%	1.0%	4.7%	5.36	6.22	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	24	23	96	416	81	53	17	96%	4.0	15.5%	14.5%	1.0%	4.7%	5.36	6.22	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	SD	23	22	93	397	80	50	15	96%	4.0	20.2%	12.6%	7.6%	3.8%	4.65	5.07	—
2026	23	AA RAW	SD	1	1	3	19	1	3	2	100%	2.7	5.3%	15.8%	-10.5%	10.5%	30.38	10.43	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	96	405	84	45	12	100%	5.6	20.8%	11.2%	9.7%	3.1%	4.89	4.81	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	97	410	87	42	12	100%	5.7	21.3%	10.3%	11.0%	3.0%	4.73	4.66	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	SD	16	16	97	410	88	42	12	100%	6.1	21.5%	10.2%	11.4%	3.0%	4.65	4.61	+0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	SD	16	16	96	404	87	41	12	100%	6.0	21.5%	10.2%	11.3%	3.1%	4.64	4.64	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	93	392	84	41	12	100%	6.2	21.4%	10.3%	11.1%	3.2%	4.69	4.73	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	89	374	79	40	12	100%	5.9	21.2%	10.6%	10.6%	3.3%	4.79	4.86	+0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	83	352	73	38	12	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.9%	10.0%	3.5%	4.94	5.04	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	SD	7	7	41	173	36	19	5	100%	5.9	20.8%	11.2%	9.7%	3.1%	4.93	4.85	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	11	11	65	274	58	28	9	100%	5.9	21.3%	10.3%	11.0%	3.1%	4.77	4.70	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	SD	13	13	77	325	70	33	10	100%	5.9	21.5%	10.2%	11.4%	3.1%	4.69	4.65	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	82	346	75	35	11	100%	5.9	21.5%	10.2%	11.3%	3.2%	4.68	4.68	+0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	83	350	75	36	11	100%	5.9	21.4%	10.3%	11.1%	3.3%	4.73	4.77	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	81	342	72	36	12	100%	5.8	21.2%	10.6%	10.6%	3.4%	4.84	4.91	+0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	SD	13	13	77	325	68	35	12	100%	5.9	20.8%	10.9%	10.0%	3.6%	4.99	5.09	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	85	504	2130	453	223	70	100%	5.9	21.3%	10.5%	10.8%	3.3%	4.80	4.43	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	180	88	28	100%	5.9	21.3%	10.5%	10.8%	3.3%	4.80	4.43	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		27	25	103	446	75	66	21	93%	3.8	16.7%	14.9%	1.9%	4.6%	5.26	6.11	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	49	200	869	145	129	40	93%	3.8	16.7%	14.9%	1.9%	4.6%	5.26	6.11	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Montgomery (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.08	19.9%	12.5%	3.1%	—	4.69	21.2%	10.7%	290	-0.39	—	—	—
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	87
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	87
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	86
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	85
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	82
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	81
Cole Wiper R 2015 · 5.41 FIP	23	SP	5.41	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	.343	4.52	15.6%	5.2%	136	-0.89	3.97	170	81
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	81
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.41	20.0%	8.4%	215	-1.19	4.34	257	80
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	80
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	80
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	79
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	198	79
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	78
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	78
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	78
Shane Davis R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP	4.19	20.9%	14.2%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	129	78
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	77
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	77
Mike Ruff R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.73	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.73	4.00	260	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	84	21.2%	10.6%	1.23	4.77
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58