Jared Johnson — OGILVIE

Jared Johnson P Midland RockHounds

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 225 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%22.9%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CMD3040

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	6	6	15	63	12	4	0	100%	2.6	13.0%	7.9%	5.0%	0.0%	3.52	3.01	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	6	6	15	63	12	4	0	100%	2.6	19.0%	6.3%	12.7%	0.0%	3.52	2.32	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	13	51	236	69	32	9	87%	3.4	21.2%	16.1%	5.0%	4.3%	5.61	5.69	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	13	51	236	69	32	9	87%	3.4	29.2%	13.6%	15.7%	3.8%	5.61	4.56	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	9	65	286	83	46	8	32%	2.3	21.6%	18.9%	2.7%	3.7%	3.90	5.70	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	9	65	286	83	46	8	32%	2.3	21.6%	18.9%	2.7%	3.7%	3.90	5.70	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	9	65	286	83	46	8	32%	2.3	29.0%	16.1%	12.9%	2.8%	3.90	4.28	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	38	0	52	231	61	27	2	0%	1.4	20.3%	13.4%	6.9%	1.3%	2.60	3.80	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	38	0	52	231	61	27	2	0%	1.4	20.3%	13.4%	6.9%	1.3%	2.60	3.80	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Rome Emperors	38	0	52	231	61	27	2	0%	1.4	26.4%	11.7%	14.7%	0.9%	2.60	2.81	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	38	0	47	215	36	20	8	0%	1.2	14.9%	7.2%	7.7%	5.7%	5.59	5.87	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	38	0	47	215	36	20	8	0%	1.2	14.9%	7.2%	7.7%	5.7%	5.59	5.87	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	OAK	32	0	37	169	31	11	8	0%	1.1	18.3%	6.5%	11.8%	4.7%	6.63	4.97	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	OAK	6	0	10	46	5	9	0	0%	1.7	10.9%	19.6%	-8.7%	0.0%	1.80	4.66	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	OAK	6	0	6	25	6	4	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	14.8%	8.0%	2.9%	5.00	5.00	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	53	240	42	24	9	—	—	17.4%	9.9%	7.5%	3.6%	5.53	5.77	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	OAK	67	0	70	296	70	42	9	0%	1.0	23.6%	14.2%	9.4%	2.9%	4.90	4.87	-0.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	OAK	66	0	69	291	69	41	9	0%	1.0	23.6%	13.9%	9.7%	2.9%	4.86	4.87	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	OAK	64	0	67	282	66	39	9	0%	1.0	23.5%	13.9%	9.6%	3.0%	4.89	4.92	-0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	OAK	61	0	64	270	63	38	9	0%	1.0	23.2%	14.0%	9.3%	3.2%	4.97	5.04	-0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	OAK	30	0	31	131	31	19	4	0%	1.0	23.6%	14.2%	9.4%	2.9%	4.90	4.87	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	OAK	42	0	44	186	44	26	5	0%	1.0	23.6%	13.9%	9.7%	2.9%	4.86	4.87	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	OAK	49	0	51	215	51	30	7	0%	1.0	23.5%	13.9%	9.6%	3.0%	4.89	4.92	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	OAK	50	0	52	220	51	31	7	0%	1.0	23.2%	14.0%	9.3%	3.2%	4.97	5.04	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	748	175	105	23	0%	1.0	23.4%	14.0%	9.5%	3.0%	4.91	4.55	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	197	118	26	0%	1.1	23.4%	14.0%	9.5%	3.0%	4.91	4.55	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		125	28	230	1031	199	144	36	22%	1.8	19.3%	13.9%	5.4%	3.5%	4.30	5.14	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	24	200	897	173	125	31	22%	1.8	19.3%	13.9%	5.4%	3.5%	4.30	5.14	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jared Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	22.9%	14.8%	2.9%	—	4.89	23.6%	9.5%	206	-0.11	—	—	—
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	87
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	87
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	87
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	86
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	85
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	85
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	84
Carlos Contreras R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	22.2%	15.6%	2.0%	.271	4.46	11.9%	2.4%	40	+0.17	4.29	107	84
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	84
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	23.9%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	84
Tommy Kahnle R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	23.8%	14.8%	2.1%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.55	1.53	458	84
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	84
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	83
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	83
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	83
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	83
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	83
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	83
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	83
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	23.4%	14.2%	1.15	4.92
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15