Elmson Candelario
Elmson Candelario
P
ACL Guardians
Age 25
RHP
6'4" / 185 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION8 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.3%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.9%
IP9
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | ACL Indians | 10 | 8 | 31 | 141 | 34 | 15 | 4 | 16.4% | 13.3% | 2.0% | 3.77 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 10 | 2 | 15 | 90 | 14 | 15 | 0 | 10.6% | 20.8% | 0.0% | 14.73 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 9 | — | 9 | 37 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 20 | 10 | 46 | 231 | 33 | 38 | 3 | 14.1% | 16.2% | 1.2% | 7.29 | 4.64 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 88 | 44 | 200 | 1012 | 145 | 166 | 13 | 14.1% | 16.2% | 1.2% | 7.29 | 4.64 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Elmson Candelario (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.31 | 23.5% | 14.2% | 20 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.75 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .340 | 4.62 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.75 | 223 | 89 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2027 · 3.15 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.15 | 25.0% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .289 | 4.73 | 28.3% | 17.6% | 151 | +1.58 | 3.15 | 220 | 88 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.26 | 18.4% | 6.8% | 137 | +0.46 | 3.74 | 171 | 87 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 87 |
| Blake Goldsberry R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.18 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 1.8% | .257 | 5.16 | 23.6% | 12.0% | 44 | +1.98 | 3.18 | 117 | 87 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.88 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .299 | 5.10 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.22 | 3.88 | 158 | 86 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 86 |
| Zach Franklin R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.16 | 28.5% | 19.2% | 85 | +0.63 | 3.48 | 125 | 86 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.15 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.23 | 3.92 | 223 | 85 |
| Brendan Beck R 2025 · 3.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.18 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 3.91 | 20.7% | 13.0% | 197 | +0.73 | 3.18 | 228 | 85 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.76 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .380 | 4.51 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.25 | 4.50 | 119 | 84 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.72 | 28.1% | 11.7% | 2.8% | .282 | 4.95 | 20.2% | 2.1% | 120 | +1.23 | 3.72 | 190 | 83 |
| Alex Cook R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.96 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 2.9% | .213 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 138 | 83 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.12 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .275 | 4.62 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.50 | 4.12 | 230 | 82 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 82 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.70 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.67 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 50 | -0.03 | 3.17 | 153 | 82 |
| Vince Reilly R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.39 | 25.2% | 11.4% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 115 | 82 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 82 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.08 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 100 | 82 |
| Luke Russo R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.79 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 3.8% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 184 | 81 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.