Vince Reilly
P
Knoxville Smokies
Age 25
RHP
5'10" / 160 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 22 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 99
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
K%21.0%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%11.9%
ROS IP22
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Stockton Ports | 4 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.3% | 9.1% | 18.2% | 4.5% | 3.86 | 4.44 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Stockton Ports | 4 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.3% | 9.1% | 18.2% | 4.5% | 3.86 | 4.60 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 32 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 52 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.7 | 17.2% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 1.4% | 3.88 | 3.43 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 32 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 52 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.7 | 23.2% | 6.7% | 16.5% | 0.9% | 3.88 | 2.48 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 29 | 0 | 29 | 136 | 25 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.2% | 9.3% | 4.9% | 0.8% | 4.91 | 3.50 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 29 | 0 | 29 | 136 | 25 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 0.7% | 4.91 | 2.96 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 30 | 1 | 46 | 200 | 53 | 25 | 6 | 3% | 1.5 | 21.8% | 13.5% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 4.11 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CHC | 21 | 0 | 22 | 94 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.0% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.34 | 4.34 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 68 | 294 | 73 | 34 | 9 | — | — | 24.7% | 11.4% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.69 | +0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.0% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.34 | 3.96 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 21 | 0 | 22 | 94 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 10 | 43 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 3.93 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 177 | 79 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 3.93 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 95 | 1 | 133 | 582 | 107 | 59 | 12 | 1% | 1.4 | 18.4% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 2.1% | 4.19 | 3.98 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 143 | 2 | 200 | 873 | 161 | 89 | 18 | 1% | 1.4 | 18.4% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 2.1% | 4.19 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Vince Reilly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 21.0% | 9.1% | 2.7% | — | 4.31 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 22 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 90 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.12 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .275 | 4.62 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.50 | 4.12 | 230 | 88 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 88 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 88 |
| Blake Goldsberry R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.18 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 1.8% | .257 | 5.16 | 23.6% | 12.0% | 44 | +1.98 | 3.18 | 117 | 87 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.70 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.67 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 50 | -0.03 | 3.17 | 153 | 86 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 85 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.28 | 19.4% | 7.4% | 1.6% | .312 | 3.96 | 20.7% | 7.8% | 65 | +0.68 | 3.28 | 113 | 85 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.34 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .238 | 4.64 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 263 | +0.30 | 3.75 | 299 | 85 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 85 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.55 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.5% | .313 | 3.38 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.17 | 2.88 | 312 | 84 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.36 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.39 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.36 | 152 | 84 |
| Boby Johnson R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.31 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 145 | 84 |
| Kelly Austin R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.58 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.1% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 119 | 84 |
| Carter Rustad R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.84 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 101 | 84 |
| Jack Dallas R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.61 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 1.9% | .286 | 4.26 | 19.6% | 13.6% | 91 | +0.65 | 3.08 | 210 | 83 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.75 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .340 | 4.62 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.75 | 223 | 83 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.68 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .289 | 4.20 | 24.7% | 12.1% | 62 | +0.52 | 3.68 | 181 | 83 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.24 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .274 | 4.67 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 38 | +1.43 | 3.24 | 172 | 83 |
| Chuck King R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.21 | 19.4% | 9.9% | 0.9% | .308 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.4% | 199 | +1.17 | 3.21 | 237 | 83 |