Vince Reilly — OGILVIE

Vince Reilly P Knoxville Smokies

Age 25 RHP 5'10" / 160 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%17.5%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	4	0	5	22	6	2	1	0%	1.2	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	4.5%	3.86	4.44	—
2023	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	4	0	5	22	6	2	1	0%	1.2	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	4.5%	3.86	4.44	—
2023	22	A RAW	Stockton Ports	4	0	5	22	6	2	1	0%	1.2	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	4.5%	3.86	4.60	—
2024	23	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	32	0	53	224	52	15	2	0%	1.7	17.2%	7.9%	9.3%	1.3%	3.88	3.35	—
2024	23	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	32	0	53	224	52	15	2	0%	1.7	17.2%	7.9%	9.3%	1.3%	3.88	3.35	—
2024	23	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	32	0	53	224	52	15	2	0%	1.7	23.2%	6.7%	16.5%	0.9%	3.88	2.48	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	29	0	29	136	25	11	1	0%	1.0	14.2%	9.3%	4.9%	0.8%	4.91	3.54	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	29	0	29	136	25	11	1	0%	1.0	14.2%	9.3%	4.9%	0.8%	4.91	3.54	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	29	0	29	136	25	11	1	0%	1.0	18.4%	8.1%	10.3%	0.7%	4.91	2.96	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	41	1	58	256	64	32	9	2%	1.4	20.4%	12.7%	7.6%	4.0%	5.15	5.20	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	41	1	58	256	64	32	9	2%	1.4	20.4%	12.7%	7.6%	4.0%	5.15	5.20	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	CHC	27	1	39	168	48	19	4	4%	1.4	28.6%	11.3%	17.3%	2.4%	4.38	3.43	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	CHC	14	0	19	88	16	13	5	0%	1.3	18.2%	14.8%	3.4%	5.7%	6.75	6.55	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CHC	54	0	56	239	45	21	6	0%	1.0	18.8%	8.8%	10.1%	2.7%	4.52	4.49	+0.0
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	53	0	56	235	45	21	7	0%	1.1	19.2%	8.9%	10.3%	2.8%	4.51	4.52	+0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	CHC	24	0	25	106	20	9	3	0%	1.0	18.8%	8.8%	10.1%	2.7%	4.52	4.49	+0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	33	0	35	148	28	13	4	0%	1.1	19.2%	8.9%	10.3%	2.8%	4.51	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	0	60	254	48	22	7	0%	1.1	19.0%	8.8%	10.2%	2.8%	4.51	4.13	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	73	23	0%	1.1	19.0%	8.8%	10.2%	2.8%	4.51	4.13	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		106	1	145	638	116	65	15	1%	1.4	18.2%	10.2%	8.0%	2.4%	4.59	4.17	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	1	200	880	160	90	21	1%	1.4	18.2%	10.2%	8.0%	2.4%	4.59	4.17	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Vince Reilly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	17.5%	8.8%	2.7%	—	4.50	19.0%	10.2%	112	-0.09	—	—	—
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	90
Daniel Corcino R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	25	SU	4.37	17.2%	7.5%	3.2%	.238	4.76	19.4%	8.2%	263	+0.39	3.84	299	89
Carlos Alvarado R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.3%	10.0%	3.5%	.342	4.15	24.3%	14.8%	78	-0.75	2.68	102	88
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	88
Luis De La O R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SU	4.37	17.0%	9.4%	2.8%	.370	3.72	15.3%	10.8%	81	-0.65	3.25	145	87
Brad Schreiber R 2016 · 4.06 FIP	25	SU	4.06	16.5%	7.9%	2.5%	.304	4.23	17.3%	4.6%	57	+0.17	3.81	171	87
Cole Johnson R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	26	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.4%	1.5%	.311	3.61	14.0%	9.2%	49	+0.09	3.52	101	86
Kyle Whitten R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	24	SU	4.35	18.0%	9.5%	2.9%	.296	5.17	17.6%	7.7%	37	+0.82	4.32	152	86
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	85
Nick Richmond R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	17.6%	10.8%	2.1%	.323	4.54	15.7%	2.7%	60	+0.43	3.11	133	84
Jason Ruffcorn R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	25	SU	4.02	17.8%	10.7%	1.9%	.315	4.20	18.5%	8.7%	173	+0.18	4.01	280	84
Stephen Villines R 2019 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	16.8%	8.5%	2.2%	.280	3.15	20.6%	14.7%	40	-0.81	2.14	156	84
Calvin Coker R 2022 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	16.3%	6.8%	2.6%	.333	3.96	14.2%	4.9%	131	-0.04	3.94	219	84
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	84
Nick Neumann R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	14.3%	5.8%	1.9%	.323	5.65	5.0%	-6.1%	19	+1.97	3.68	107	84
Alex Hermeling R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	16.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	127	84
Brian Glowicki R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	16.4%	8.3%	3.0%	.275	3.92	26.0%	14.1%	62	-0.49	2.31	189	83
Mario Morales R 2019 · 4.53 FIP	25	SU	4.53	18.4%	8.6%	3.5%	.342	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	108	83
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	83
Josh Hejka R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	16.7%	10.8%	2.9%	.363	3.93	15.8%	8.7%	77	-0.72	2.91	198	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	18.8%	8.8%	1.06	4.53
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41