Brock Jones
P
Visalia Rawhide
+0.3
WAR
Age 25
LHP
5'11" / 180 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.9%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.3%
IP51
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 5 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.18 | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 14 | 10 | 49 | 231 | 52 | 33 | 5 | 15.6% | 17.5% | 2.6% | 6.10 | 5.43 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 19 | 9 | 51 | 250 | 44 | 33 | 11 | 13.0% | 15.6% | 5.7% | 7.94 | 7.11 | -1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 49 | 21 | 7 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 50 | 20 | 7 | 23.1% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 49 | 20 | 7 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 49 | 20 | 7 | 23.1% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 47 | 20 | 6 | 23.0% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 45 | 19 | 6 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 46 | — | 46 | 192 | 43 | 19 | 6 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 41 | 18 | 6 | 22.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 39 | 18 | 6 | 22.0% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 36 | 17 | 6 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 33 | 17 | 6 | 21.2% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 4.95 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 31 | 16 | 6 | 20.8% | 10.8% | 3.8% | 5.08 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 38 | 19 | 105 | 506 | 76 | 84 | 20 | 14.9% | 16.7% | 4.0% | 6.84 | 6.15 | -1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 36 | 200 | 961 | 144 | 159 | 38 | 14.9% | 16.7% | 4.0% | 6.84 | 6.15 | -1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brock Jones (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.1% | — | 4.42 | 23.1% | 13.6% | 151 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 87 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 87 |
| Greg Nappo L 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 87 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 87 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 86 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.79 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 176 | 85 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.12 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% | .382 | 3.51 | 24.0% | 12.5% | 38 | -0.61 | 2.88 | 206 | 85 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.93 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.11 | 2.69 | 271 | 85 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.65 | 3.93 | 264 | 84 |
| James Paxton L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 84 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.62 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.31 | 1.66 | 186 | 84 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 83 |
| Kit Scheetz L 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 22.9% | 8.7% | 3.9% | .340 | 5.10 | 16.2% | 2.6% | 55 | +0.69 | 2.34 | 195 | 83 |
| Brian Flynn L 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.56 | 3.82 | 277 | 83 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.60 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 201 | 83 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2029 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 82 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .294 | 3.82 | 24.0% | 15.1% | 127 | -0.25 | 3.59 | 364 | 82 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 21.9% | 12.0% | 2.4% | .322 | 4.68 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 110 | +0.61 | 3.96 | 265 | 81 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.47 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 4.16 | 19.5% | 9.2% | 53 | -0.31 | 4.16 | 101 | 81 |
| Locke St. John L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.83 | 24.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .281 | 3.50 | 25.9% | 15.4% | 109 | -0.33 | 3.06 | 389 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.5M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | — | — | — |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $8M | $3M | -$5M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.