Trevor McDonald
P
Sacramento River Cats
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 25
RHP
6'0" / 205 lbs
AAA
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.0 · 2028
ERA3.55
FIP4.72
xFIP2.70
SIERA3.08
K%20.5%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%11.3%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2028
K†5050
FB Velo
p2993.0
Whiff%
p7729.6%
K%
p5623.3%
xwOBA vs
p830.280
SL (4%)
SI (39%)
CU (51%)
FB (39%)
CH-0.6 (6%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Giants Black | 3 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.25 | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | San Jose Giants | 16 | 14 | 70 | 316 | 71 | 34 | 4 | 15.7% | 13.0% | 1.3% | 4.09 | 4.11 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 29 | 10 | 101 | 430 | 120 | 42 | 4 | 19.7% | 12.3% | 0.6% | 2.31 | 3.34 | +2.2 |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 14 | 13 | 47 | 182 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 21.3% | 6.5% | 0.8% | 1.33 | 2.59 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 24 | 20 | 89 | 386 | 79 | 31 | 8 | 16.6% | 8.8% | 2.3% | 4.25 | 4.10 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 32 | 26 | 157 | 689 | 158 | 64 | 23 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 4.98 | 4.70 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 3 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 7 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.43 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SF | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 42 | 19 | 7 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 3.55 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | SF | — | — | 55 | 234 | 49 | 25 | 7 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 3.92 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 23 | 23 | 127 | 536 | 112 | 49 | 17 | 20.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.19 | 4.65 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SF | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 115 | 49 | 18 | 21.0% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.44 | 4.63 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SF | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 115 | 49 | 18 | 21.0% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.64 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | SF | 23 | 23 | 127 | 537 | 110 | 48 | 18 | 20.6% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.70 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | SF | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 104 | 47 | 18 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 4.73 | 4.79 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | SF | 22 | 22 | 119 | 503 | 98 | 46 | 17 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.90 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | SF | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 91 | 45 | 17 | 18.8% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.94 | 5.01 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | SF | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 84 | 44 | 17 | 18.1% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 5.06 | 5.14 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | SF | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 76 | 43 | 16 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 5.19 | 5.28 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | SF | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 69 | 41 | 16 | 16.7% | 10.0% | 3.8% | 5.33 | 5.43 | -0.2 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | SF | 17 | 17 | 91 | 385 | 61 | 39 | 15 | 15.9% | 10.2% | 3.9% | 5.49 | 5.59 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 121 | 88 | 476 | 2050 | 393 | 215 | 44 | 19.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | 3.78 | 3.98 | +7.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 37 | 200 | 861 | 165 | 90 | 18 | 19.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | 3.78 | 3.98 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trevor McDonald (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 3.3% | — | 4.64 | 21.0% | 12.0% | 387 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Michael King R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.12 | 21.5% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .316 | 2.74 | 28.3% | 20.8% | 219 | -1.38 | 1.98 | 862 | 84 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 83 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.53 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .380 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.04 | 4.37 | 119 | 82 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.48 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.53 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -0.95 | 1.94 | 131 | 82 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 81 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .238 | 4.78 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 263 | +0.40 | 3.84 | 299 | 81 |
| Carlos Alvarado R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.87 | 16.3% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .342 | 4.09 | 24.3% | 14.8% | 78 | -0.78 | 2.67 | 102 | 80 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 80 |
| Luis De La O R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.37 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .370 | 3.72 | 15.3% | 10.8% | 81 | -0.65 | 3.22 | 145 | 80 |
| Joe Harvey R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.82 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .183 | 3.92 | 25.0% | 12.7% | 107 | +0.10 | 2.56 | 197 | 79 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.99 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 100 | 78 |
| Boby Johnson R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 4.0% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 145 | 78 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.83 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .289 | 4.21 | 24.7% | 12.1% | 62 | +0.38 | 3.83 | 181 | 78 |
| Blair Henley R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.4% | .450 | 4.64 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.12 | 4.02 | 187 | 78 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .340 | 4.39 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.65 | 3.74 | 223 | 78 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 78 |
| Kyle Whitten R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.22 | 18.2% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 143 | 78 |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .335 | 4.48 | 21.4% | 11.7% | 382 | +0.11 | 3.69 | 509 | 78 |
| Vinny Nittoli R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.66 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 3.8% | .286 | 4.20 | 19.0% | 12.1% | 61 | -0.46 | 3.68 | 331 | 77 |
| Justin Sterner R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.46 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 4.3% | .266 | 4.42 | 26.5% | 18.0% | 166 | -0.04 | 3.97 | 252 | 77 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.6M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $3M | +1.0 | $8M | +$5M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $5M | +1.0 | $9M | +$4M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $7M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $14M | $26M | +$13M | ||