Trevor McDonald

P San Francisco Giants

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.8 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPIL-6040-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX5 levels	24	20	89	4.25	3.54	20.5%	8.0%	2.0	K 16.4% · BB 8.2% · FIP 4.04
2025	24	MIX2 levels	32	26	157	4.98	4.21	22.9%	9.3%	2.2	K 20.0% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.61
2026	25	MIX2 levels	19	18	85	5.17	3.85	18.3%	9.8%	1.6	K 17.8% · BB 9.4% · FIP 3.89
2027PROJ	26	MLBSF	5	5	28	4.43	4.46	18.9%	8.6%	0.3
2028PROJ88% MLB	27	MLBSF	11	11	66	4.33	4.36	19.2%	8.6%	0.7
2029PROJ90% MLB	28	MLBSF	10	10	60	4.38	4.43	19.3%	8.6%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.114First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$2M2030Arb-2$2M2031Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs51

FB Velo38

K%24

CompsJonathan Pintaro (age 26) · Ricky Castro (age 24) · Nick Payero (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.43

FIP4.46

K%18.9%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%10.4%

Proj IP33

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3893.7

Whiff%

p2221.3%

p2418.4%

xwOBA vs

p510.311

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.114 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.6M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.8M
2030	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$8M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Black	3	3	4	16	8	2	0	100%	1.3	50.0%	12.5%	37.5%	0.0%	2.25	0.46	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Giants Black	3	3	4	16	8	2	0	100%	1.3	50.0%	12.5%	37.5%	0.0%	2.25	0.60	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	70	316	71	34	4	88%	4.4	15.7%	13.0%	2.7%	1.3%	4.09	4.14	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	14	70	316	71	34	4	88%	4.4	22.5%	10.8%	11.7%	1.3%	4.09	3.27	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	10	101	430	120	42	4	34%	3.5	19.7%	12.3%	7.4%	0.6%	2.31	3.35	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	10	101	430	120	42	4	34%	3.5	27.9%	9.8%	18.1%	0.9%	2.31	2.49	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	47	182	51	11	1	93%	3.4	21.3%	6.5%	14.8%	0.8%	1.33	2.58	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	47	182	51	11	1	93%	3.4	28.0%	6.0%	22.0%	0.5%	1.33	1.92	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	5 levels	24	20	89	386	79	31	8	83%	3.7	16.4%	8.2%	8.1%	2.3%	4.25	4.04	+1.4
2024	23	MIX MLE	5 levels	24	20	89	386	79	31	8	83%	3.7	16.4%	8.2%	8.1%	2.3%	4.25	4.04	+1.4
2024	23	MIX RAW	5 levels	24	20	89	386	79	31	8	83%	3.7	20.5%	8.0%	12.4%	2.1%	4.25	3.54	+2.0
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	26	157	689	158	64	23	81%	4.9	20.0%	8.4%	11.6%	3.9%	4.98	4.61	+1.4
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	26	157	689	158	64	23	81%	4.9	20.0%	8.4%	11.6%	3.9%	4.98	4.61	+1.4
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	26	157	689	158	64	23	81%	4.9	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	3.3%	4.98	4.21	+2.2
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	85	378	69	37	7	95%	4.5	17.8%	9.4%	8.4%	2.0%	5.17	3.89	+1.5
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	85	378	69	37	7	95%	4.5	17.8%	9.4%	8.4%	2.0%	5.17	3.89	+1.5
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	85	378	69	37	7	95%	4.5	18.3%	9.8%	8.5%	1.9%	5.17	3.85	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			18	16	88	380	72	26	8	89%	4.9	18.9%	6.8%	12.1%	2.1%	4.38	3.53	+2.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	SF	5	5	28	118	22	10	3	100%	5.6	18.9%	8.6%	10.4%	2.7%	4.43	4.46	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	74	313	60	27	9	100%	6.2	19.2%	8.6%	10.7%	2.8%	4.45	4.48	+0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	11	11	66	280	54	24	8	100%	6.0	19.3%	8.6%	10.7%	2.9%	4.50	4.55	+0.7
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	56	237	45	21	7	100%	6.2	18.9%	8.8%	10.0%	3.1%	4.61	4.69	+0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	SF	7	7	45	190	35	17	6	100%	6.4	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	3.3%	4.77	4.89	+0.3
2032	31	MLB MLE	SF	6	6	34	141	25	13	5	100%	5.6	17.5%	9.4%	8.0%	3.5%	4.98	5.12	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	11	11	66	279	54	24	7	100%	6.0	19.2%	8.6%	10.7%	2.6%	4.33	4.36	+0.7
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	60	253	49	22	7	100%	6.0	19.3%	8.6%	10.7%	2.7%	4.38	4.43	+0.6
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	51	215	41	19	6	100%	6.4	18.9%	8.8%	10.0%	2.8%	4.48	4.56	+0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	SF	7	7	41	173	32	16	5	100%	5.9	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	3.0%	4.64	4.76	+0.2
2032	31	MLB CTX	SF	5	5	31	131	23	12	4	100%	6.2	17.5%	9.4%	8.0%	3.2%	4.84	4.98	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	58	337	1432	270	119	38	97%	5.6	18.8%	8.3%	10.5%	2.6%	4.46	4.01	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	849	160	71	23	97%	5.7	18.8%	8.3%	10.5%	2.6%	4.46	4.01	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		137	104	555	2397	449	233	52	76%	4.0	18.8%	9.7%	9.0%	2.2%	3.96	3.94	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	37	200	864	162	84	19	76%	4.0	18.8%	9.7%	9.0%	2.2%	3.96	3.94	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 15 IPFIP 4.22 → 4.17 (−0.05)K% 17.6% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.65%	—	×0.860	15.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.59%	—	×0.900	18.53%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.22 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASacramento River Cats · 142 IPFIP 4.34 → 4.81 (+0.48)K% 22.9% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.89%	—	×0.860	19.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.86%	—	×0.900	8.87%
HR / BF /BF	3.50%	÷0.938	×1.100	4.10%

Result: FIP 4.34 → 4.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 48 IPFIP 3.56 → 3.78 (+0.22)K% 17.8% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.82%	—	×0.860	15.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.93%	—	×0.900	6.24%
HR / BF /BF	1.98%	÷1.010	×1.100	2.16%

Result: FIP 3.56 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Eugene Emeralds · 17 IPFIP 4.08 → 5.38 (+1.30)K% 30.5% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.49%	—	×0.770	23.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.20%	—	×1.150	14.02%
HR / BF /BF	3.66%	÷1.010	×1.250	4.53%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 4.08 → 5.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 14 IPFIP 2.83 → 3.12 (+0.29)K% 12.9% → 10.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.90%	—	×0.810	10.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×1.100	7.10%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.062	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 2.83 → 3.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Giants · 8 IPFIP 3.24 → 4.61 (+1.37)K% 30.0% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.680	20.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.250	8.33%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.178	×1.400	3.96%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 136).

Result: FIP 3.24 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Eugene Emeralds · 38 IPFIP 1.87 → 2.58 (+0.71)K% 27.7% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.66%	—	×0.770	21.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.67%	—	×1.150	6.52%
HR / BF /BF	0.71%	÷1.076	×1.250	0.82%

Result: FIP 1.87 → 2.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Giants Black · 10 IPFIP 1.56 → 2.58 (+1.02)K% 29.3% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.27%	—	×0.680	19.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.32%	—	×1.250	9.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.031	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.56 → 2.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor McDonald (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.56	19.2%	10.5%	197	+0.10	—	—	—
Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP	3.42	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.07	23.9%	12.1%	153	+0.65	3.42	223	80
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	80
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	79
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	78
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	78
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	78
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	77
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	77
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	76
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	76
Brad Lincoln R 2011 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP-	3.78	13.7%	5.7%	2.1%	.301	4.23	22.3%	13.9%	120	+0.45	3.78	280	76
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	75
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	75
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	75
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	75
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	74
Jason Alexander R 2019 · 3.96 FIP	26	SP-	3.96	17.1%	8.2%	2.3%	.380	4.28	16.2%	8.5%	150	+0.32	2.08	840	74
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	74
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	74
David Phelps R 2013 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	21.0%	9.0%	2.0%	.314	3.56	21.5%	13.3%	312	-0.01	2.50	672	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	57	18.8%	8.4%	1.09	4.54
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Shane Greene ('23)	2.4	59	21.7%	8.6%	1.12	4.50
Matt Wise ('08)	1.6	53	18.1%	7.9%	1.14	4.23
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
John Morris ('66-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	58	18.3%*	8.2%*	1.00*	4.74*