Trevor McDonald — OGILVIE

Trevor McDonald P San Francisco Giants

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.7 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 163 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 96

ERA4.15

FIP4.40

K%18.2%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP164

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p2221.3%

p2418.4%

xwOBA vs

p510.311

SL (4%)

SI (39%)

CU (51%)

FB (39%)

CH-0.6 (6%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$7M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.9M		$15M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Black	3	3	4	16	8	2	0	100%	1.3	50.0%	12.5%	37.5%	0.0%	2.25	0.46	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Giants Black	3	3	4	16	8	2	0	100%	1.3	50.0%	12.5%	37.5%	0.0%	2.25	0.60	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	70	316	71	34	4	88%	4.4	15.7%	13.0%	2.7%	1.3%	4.09	4.14	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	14	70	316	71	34	4	88%	4.4	22.5%	10.8%	11.7%	1.3%	4.09	3.27	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	10	101	430	120	42	4	34%	3.5	19.7%	12.3%	7.4%	0.6%	2.31	3.35	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	10	101	430	120	42	4	34%	3.5	27.9%	9.8%	18.1%	0.9%	2.31	2.49	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	47	182	51	11	1	93%	3.4	21.3%	6.5%	14.8%	0.8%	1.33	2.58	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	47	182	51	11	1	93%	3.4	21.3%	6.5%	14.8%	0.8%	1.33	2.58	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	47	182	51	11	1	93%	3.4	28.0%	6.0%	22.0%	0.5%	1.33	1.92	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	5 levels	24	20	89	386	79	31	8	83%	3.7	16.1%	8.2%	7.8%	2.3%	4.25	4.07	+0.9
2024	23	MIX MLE	5 levels	24	20	89	386	79	31	8	83%	3.7	16.1%	8.2%	7.8%	2.3%	4.25	4.07	+0.9
2024	23	MIX RAW	5 levels	24	20	89	386	79	31	8	83%	3.7	20.5%	8.0%	12.4%	2.1%	4.25	3.54	+1.5
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	26	157	689	158	64	23	81%	4.9	19.4%	8.4%	11.0%	3.9%	4.98	4.67	+0.4
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	26	157	689	158	64	23	81%	4.9	19.4%	8.4%	11.0%	3.9%	4.98	4.67	+0.4
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	26	157	689	158	64	23	81%	4.9	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	3.3%	4.98	4.21	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			18	16	88	380	72	26	8	89%	4.9	18.9%	6.8%	12.1%	2.1%	4.38	3.53	+1.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	19	18	85	378	69	37	7	95%	4.5	17.7%	9.4%	8.3%	2.0%	5.17	3.90	+1.0
YTD	25	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	19	18	85	378	69	37	7	95%	4.5	17.7%	9.4%	8.3%	2.0%	5.17	3.90	+1.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	SF	5	4	15	68	12	14	0	80%	3.0	17.6%	20.6%	-2.9%	0.0%	5.40	4.22	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	SF	14	14	70	310	57	23	7	100%	5.0	18.4%	7.4%	11.0%	2.3%	5.12	3.73	+1.0
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	SF	14	14	70	310	57	23	7	100%	5.0	18.4%	7.4%	11.0%	2.3%	5.12	3.73	+1.0
ROS	25	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.2%	8.7%	9.5%	3.2%	4.15	4.40	—
ROS	25	MLB CTX	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.2%	8.7%	9.5%	2.9%	4.02	4.27	—
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	85	378	69	37	7	—	—	18.3%	9.8%	8.5%	1.9%	5.17	3.90	+0.9
FULL	25	MLB A+C	SF	—	—	70	297	69	37	7	—	—	23.2%	12.5%	10.8%	2.4%	6.27	4.01	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SF	29	29	172	726	143	56	21	100%	5.9	19.7%	7.7%	12.0%	2.9%	4.33	4.40	+1.0
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	29	29	173	732	145	57	22	100%	6.0	19.9%	7.8%	12.1%	3.0%	4.39	4.43	+1.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	29	29	173	732	145	58	23	100%	6.0	19.8%	8.0%	11.9%	3.1%	4.45	4.50	+0.8
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	28	28	166	699	135	57	23	100%	5.9	19.3%	8.2%	11.1%	3.2%	4.58	4.66	+0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	SF	26	26	156	657	122	56	23	100%	6.0	18.6%	8.5%	10.1%	3.4%	4.75	4.87	+0.1
2032	31	MLB MLE	SF	24	24	145	613	109	54	22	100%	6.0	17.9%	8.8%	9.0%	3.7%	4.96	5.10	-0.3
2033	32	MLB MLE	SF	22	22	134	567	97	52	22	100%	6.1	17.1%	9.2%	7.8%	3.9%	5.20	5.35	-0.7
2027	26	MLB CTX	SF	27	27	163	688	136	53	19	100%	6.0	19.7%	7.7%	12.0%	2.7%	4.21	4.28	+1.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	28	28	165	697	138	54	19	100%	5.9	19.9%	7.8%	12.1%	2.8%	4.27	4.31	+0.9
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	28	28	165	697	138	55	20	100%	5.9	19.8%	8.0%	11.9%	2.9%	4.32	4.37	+0.8
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	26	26	157	663	128	54	20	100%	6.0	19.3%	8.2%	11.1%	3.0%	4.45	4.53	+0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	SF	25	25	148	625	116	53	20	100%	5.9	18.6%	8.5%	10.1%	3.2%	4.61	4.73	+0.1
2032	31	MLB CTX	SF	23	23	138	583	104	51	20	100%	6.0	17.9%	8.8%	9.0%	3.4%	4.81	4.95	-0.3
2033	32	MLB CTX	SF	21	21	128	540	92	50	20	100%	6.1	17.1%	9.2%	7.8%	3.6%	5.04	5.19	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		195	193	1152	4871	924	397	145	99%	5.9	19.0%	8.2%	10.8%	3.0%	4.49	4.16	+10.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	846	160	69	25	99%	5.9	19.0%	8.2%	10.8%	3.0%	4.49	4.16	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		137	104	555	2397	444	233	52	76%	4.0	18.5%	9.7%	8.8%	2.2%	3.96	3.96	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	37	200	864	160	84	19	76%	4.0	18.5%	9.7%	8.8%	2.2%	3.96	3.96	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor McDonald (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	18.9%	8.1%	3.3%	—	4.44	19.8%	12.0%	519	-0.30	—	—	—
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	78
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	77
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	76
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.90	20.6%	13.1%	353	-0.59	3.08	476	76
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	74
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	74
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	73
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.44	20.8%	11.9%	382	+0.06	2.77	544	73
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	72
Ross Stripling R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP	4.32	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.281	3.42	23.1%	18.2%	313	-0.90	3.05	930	72
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	72
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	72
Connor Seabold R 2021 · 3.72 FIP	25	SP	3.72	20.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.247	4.05	19.2%	13.1%	224	+0.33	3.13	542	72
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	72
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	71
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	71
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	71
Ubert Mejias R 2023 · 3.74 FIP	22	SP-	3.74	14.2%	7.9%	1.5%	.326	4.43	14.0%	8.0%	264	+0.69	3.74	326	70
Collin Wiles R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	25	SP	4.33	15.3%	8.4%	2.7%	.295	4.63	17.0%	11.9%	229	+0.30	3.57	703	70
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	159	19.0%	8.2%	1.28	4.62
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45