Trevor McDonald
P
San Francisco Giants
Age 25
RHP
6'0" / 205 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION81 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 93
ERA3.97
FIP4.28
K%18.8%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%9.2%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 146 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p2321.5%
K%
p2518.6%
xwOBA vs
p560.306
SL (4%)
SI (39%)
CU (51%)
FB (39%)
CH-0.6 (6%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Giants Black | 3 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 12.5% | 37.5% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 0.46 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Giants Black | 3 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 12.5% | 37.5% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 0.60 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 14 | 70 | 316 | 71 | 34 | 4 | 88% | 4.4 | 15.7% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 4.09 | 4.10 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 14 | 70 | 316 | 71 | 34 | 4 | 88% | 4.4 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 1.3% | 4.09 | 3.27 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 10 | 101 | 430 | 120 | 42 | 4 | 34% | 3.5 | 19.7% | 12.3% | 7.4% | 0.6% | 2.31 | 3.33 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 10 | 101 | 430 | 120 | 42 | 4 | 34% | 3.5 | 27.9% | 9.8% | 18.1% | 0.9% | 2.31 | 2.49 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 13 | 47 | 182 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 93% | 3.4 | 21.3% | 6.5% | 14.8% | 0.8% | 1.33 | 2.55 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 13 | 47 | 182 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 93% | 3.4 | 28.0% | 6.0% | 22.0% | 0.5% | 1.33 | 1.92 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 5 levels | 24 | 20 | 89 | 386 | 79 | 31 | 8 | 83% | 3.7 | 16.6% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 2.3% | 4.25 | 4.09 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 5 levels | 24 | 20 | 89 | 386 | 79 | 31 | 8 | 83% | 3.7 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 12.4% | 2.1% | 4.25 | 3.54 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 26 | 157 | 689 | 158 | 64 | 23 | 81% | 4.9 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 4.2% | 4.98 | 4.90 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 26 | 157 | 689 | 158 | 64 | 23 | 81% | 4.9 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 3.3% | 4.98 | 4.21 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 18 | 17 | 81 | 359 | 66 | 35 | 6 | 94% | 4.5 | 18.0% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 1.7% | 5.09 | 3.76 | +1.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 51 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 51 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | SF | — | — | 146 | 633 | 117 | 61 | 14 | — | — | 18.5% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 2.2% | 4.59 | 3.99 | +2.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | SF | — | — | 131 | 554 | 117 | 61 | 13 | — | — | 21.2% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 5.09 | 4.04 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 29 | 29 | 172 | 726 | 146 | 60 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.1% | 8.2% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.45 | +1.9 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SF | 29 | 29 | 173 | 732 | 148 | 60 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.47 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SF | 29 | 29 | 173 | 732 | 148 | 61 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.54 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | SF | 28 | 28 | 166 | 699 | 137 | 60 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.69 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | SF | 26 | 26 | 156 | 657 | 125 | 58 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.90 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | SF | 24 | 24 | 145 | 613 | 112 | 57 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.2% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 4.99 | 5.13 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | SF | 22 | 22 | 134 | 567 | 99 | 55 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.4% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 5.23 | 5.39 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 27 | 27 | 163 | 688 | 138 | 57 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.1% | 8.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.39 | +1.9 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SF | 28 | 28 | 165 | 697 | 141 | 58 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.40 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SF | 28 | 28 | 165 | 697 | 141 | 58 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.47 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | SF | 26 | 26 | 157 | 663 | 130 | 57 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.62 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | SF | 25 | 25 | 148 | 625 | 118 | 56 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.82 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | SF | 23 | 23 | 138 | 583 | 106 | 54 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.2% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 4.91 | 5.05 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | SF | 21 | 21 | 128 | 540 | 94 | 52 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.4% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 5.14 | 5.30 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 208 | 206 | 1213 | 5125 | 989 | 441 | 157 | 99% | 5.8 | 19.3% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.24 | +16.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 845 | 163 | 73 | 26 | 99% | 5.8 | 19.3% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 136 | 103 | 551 | 2378 | 450 | 245 | 52 | 76% | 4.0 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 2.2% | 3.94 | 3.99 | +9.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 37 | 200 | 864 | 164 | 89 | 19 | 76% | 4.0 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 2.2% | 3.94 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trevor McDonald (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.88 | 19.9% | 9.2% | 3.5% | — | 4.49 | 20.2% | 11.9% | 519 | -0.39 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 77 |
| Justin Topa R 2028 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 76 |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.39 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.65 | 21.4% | 11.7% | 382 | +0.26 | 3.67 | 509 | 73 |
| Ryan Johnson R 2024 · 4.81 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.81 | 20.1% | 7.2% | 4.5% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 126 | 73 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 72 |
| Burch Smith R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 72 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 72 |
| Ross Stripling R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.26 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 2.9% | .281 | 3.58 | 23.1% | 18.2% | 313 | -0.68 | 3.05 | 930 | 71 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .380 | 4.51 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.25 | 4.50 | 119 | 71 |
| Blair Henley R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .450 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.22 | 3.80 | 187 | 71 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 71 |
| Matt Ager R 2024 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 146 | 70 |
| Cole Percival R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 17.5% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .296 | 3.59 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 36 | -0.73 | 3.59 | 327 | 70 |
| Deivi Villafana R 2024 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.22 | 14.9% | 6.1% | 2.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 109 | 70 |
| Ryan Watson R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.26 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | .342 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 5.4% | 98 | +1.59 | 4.26 | 165 | 70 |
| Collin Wiles R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.11 | 15.3% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .295 | 4.57 | 17.0% | 11.9% | 229 | +0.46 | 3.47 | 703 | 70 |
| Matt Magill R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.96 | 16.6% | 12.2% | 3.1% | .435 | 4.87 | 18.6% | 8.4% | 195 | -0.09 | 3.45 | 259 | 70 |
| Alex Cobb R 2029 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.20 | 14.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | .366 | 4.43 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 344 | -0.77 | 2.78 | 844 | 69 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 69 |
| Jackson Finley R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.85 | 20.7% | 9.3% | 2.4% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 132 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 161 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.29 | 4.65 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Tanner Roark ('20) | 6 | 149 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 1.24 | 4.19 |
| Jake Odorizzi ('22) | 7 | 148 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 3.92 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |