Gavin Collyer — OGILVIE

Gavin Collyer P Round Rock Express

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 165 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

K%24.7%

BB%16.7%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5555

CTRL2035

CMD3035

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.3

Whiff%

p6227.1%

p4221.0%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

SL+0.8 (22%)

CT (34%)

SI (18%)

FB (43%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	6	0	5	24	7	6	1	0%	0.8	29.2%	25.0%	4.2%	4.2%	10.80	6.09	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	6	0	5	24	7	6	1	0%	0.8	29.2%	25.0%	4.2%	4.2%	10.80	6.50	—
2021	20	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	21	16	73	326	84	48	6	76%	3.5	19.1%	17.4%	1.7%	2.4%	3.33	5.01	—
2021	20	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	21	16	73	326	84	48	6	76%	3.5	25.8%	14.7%	11.0%	1.8%	3.33	3.84	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	105	448	115	44	9	92%	4.4	18.9%	11.0%	8.0%	2.7%	4.56	4.35	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	105	448	115	44	9	92%	4.4	25.7%	9.8%	15.8%	2.0%	4.56	3.28	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	6	54	248	64	29	7	19%	1.7	18.8%	13.6%	5.3%	3.9%	5.33	5.37	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	6	54	248	64	29	7	19%	1.7	18.8%	13.6%	5.3%	3.9%	5.33	5.37	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	6	54	248	64	29	7	19%	1.7	25.8%	11.7%	14.1%	2.8%	5.33	4.03	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	51	244	79	32	3	0%	1.2	25.2%	15.0%	10.3%	1.6%	3.71	3.72	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	51	244	79	32	3	0%	1.2	25.2%	15.0%	10.3%	1.6%	3.71	3.72	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	51	244	79	32	3	0%	1.2	32.4%	13.1%	19.3%	1.2%	3.71	2.65	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	61	288	86	46	4	0%	1.2	24.3%	16.5%	7.8%	1.7%	4.40	4.07	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	61	288	86	46	4	0%	1.2	24.3%	16.5%	7.8%	1.7%	4.40	4.07	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	61	288	86	46	4	0%	1.2	29.9%	16.0%	13.9%	1.4%	4.40	3.39	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			23	0	23	105	22	18	1	0%	1.0	21.0%	17.1%	3.8%	1.0%	5.09	4.10	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	49	0	51	229	61	35	2	0%	1.0	23.7%	14.5%	9.2%	0.9%	3.68	3.42	+0.7
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	49	0	51	229	61	35	2	0%	1.0	23.7%	14.5%	9.2%	0.9%	3.68	3.42	+0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	TEX	26	0	28	124	39	17	1	0%	1.1	31.5%	13.7%	17.7%	0.8%	2.54	2.62	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	TEX	23	0	23	105	22	18	1	0%	1.0	21.0%	17.1%	3.8%	1.0%	5.09	4.02	+0.1
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	TEX	23	0	23	105	22	18	1	0%	1.0	21.0%	17.1%	3.8%	1.0%	5.09	4.02	+0.1
ROS	25	MLB MLE	TEX	6	0	6	25	6	4	1	0%	1.0	24.7%	16.7%	8.0%	2.5%	4.49	4.49	+0.0
ROS	25	MLB CTX	TEX	6	0	6	25	6	4	1	0%	1.0	24.7%	16.7%	8.0%	2.5%	4.49	4.49	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	57	254	67	39	3	—	—	26.4%	15.4%	11.0%	1.0%	3.76	3.53	+0.7
FULL	25	MLB A+C	TEX	—	—	29	122	67	39	3	—	—	55.1%	32.1%	23.0%	2.1%	7.46	3.69	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TEX	119	0	125	527	127	85	12	0%	1.0	24.1%	16.2%	7.8%	2.4%	4.81	4.80	-0.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	TEX	117	0	123	518	124	81	13	0%	1.0	23.9%	15.7%	8.2%	2.5%	4.78	4.79	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	TEX	113	0	119	503	119	78	13	0%	1.1	23.7%	15.4%	8.2%	2.6%	4.81	4.85	-0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	TEX	108	0	114	480	112	74	13	0%	1.1	23.4%	15.4%	7.9%	2.7%	4.90	4.97	-0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	TEX	102	0	107	451	104	71	13	0%	1.0	23.0%	15.8%	7.3%	2.9%	5.05	5.14	-0.7
2027	26	MLB CTX	TEX	112	0	118	498	120	81	12	0%	1.1	24.1%	16.2%	7.8%	2.4%	4.81	4.80	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	TEX	111	0	117	494	118	77	12	0%	1.1	23.9%	15.7%	8.2%	2.5%	4.78	4.79	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	TEX	108	0	113	477	113	74	12	0%	1.0	23.7%	15.4%	8.2%	2.6%	4.81	4.85	-0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	TEX	103	0	108	456	107	70	12	0%	1.0	23.4%	15.4%	7.9%	2.7%	4.90	4.97	-0.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	TEX	97	0	102	431	99	68	13	0%	1.1	23.0%	15.8%	7.3%	2.9%	5.05	5.14	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		560	0	587	2485	584	392	63	0%	1.0	23.5%	15.8%	7.7%	2.5%	4.87	4.50	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	847	199	134	21	0%	1.0	23.5%	15.8%	7.7%	2.5%	4.87	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		223	44	400	1807	387	263	41	20%	1.8	21.4%	14.6%	6.8%	2.3%	4.27	4.38	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		111	22	200	903	193	131	21	20%	1.8	21.4%	14.6%	6.8%	2.3%	4.27	4.38	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gavin Collyer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	25.1%	17.2%	2.6%	—	4.81	23.9%	8.1%	367	-0.14	—	—	—
Josh Staumont R 2019 · 4.36 FIP	25	SW	4.36	25.9%	15.1%	2.8%	.263	3.57	27.6%	14.9%	129	-0.79	3.18	618	71
Hunter Bigge R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	25	SU	4.02	23.1%	14.6%	1.9%	.316	4.74	26.0%	14.8%	101	+0.72	3.44	229	71
Calvin Faucher R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	25	SU	4.71	24.3%	13.7%	3.5%	.350	3.67	23.9%	13.7%	144	-1.04	2.08	443	70
Bryan Baker R 2019 · 3.85 FIP	24	SU	3.85	25.7%	15.8%	1.7%	.258	2.59	25.8%	16.4%	111	-1.26	2.55	559	69
Sean Reynolds R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	19.6%	15.8%	1.7%	.315	4.29	20.2%	6.6%	109	-0.10	3.62	258	69
Tommy Kahnle R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	23.8%	14.8%	2.1%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.55	1.53	458	68
Ariel Hernández R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	25	SU	4.59	24.0%	18.9%	2.1%	.229	3.85	19.1%	2.2%	55	-0.74	3.76	192	68
Noah Murdock R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.8%	17.1%	1.8%	.314	3.18	22.5%	9.0%	144	-1.38	2.60	306	68
Manny Barreda R 2015 · 5.04 FIP	26	SU	5.04	21.2%	14.7%	3.4%	.286	3.69	19.6%	9.5%	186	-1.35	3.30	376	68
Thyago Vieira R 2018 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.324	4.33	21.1%	10.3%	47	+0.35	3.04	311	67
Yency Almonte R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	25	SU	4.62	18.8%	12.9%	2.7%	.301	3.59	24.2%	16.2%	129	-1.03	2.75	732	66
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	65
José Ramírez R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	19.5%	12.2%	1.8%	.312	3.91	22.4%	11.8%	136	-0.08	3.36	206	64
Jairo Díaz R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	18.8%	13.6%	2.4%	.281	3.33	20.2%	10.3%	18	-1.20	2.99	190	64
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	64
Malik Barrington R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	22.4%	16.7%	1.2%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.91	132	64
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	64
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	64
Carlos Contreras R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	22.2%	15.6%	2.0%	.271	4.46	11.9%	2.4%	40	+0.17	4.29	107	63
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	117	23.9%	16.0%	1.00	4.88
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98