Gavin Collyer — OGILVIE

Gavin Collyer P Round Rock Express

+0.2 WAR

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 165 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

xFIP4.60

SIERA4.11

K%23.9%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%10.2%

IP57

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2027

OFP—40

STUF5560

CMD3035

K†6060

SL+0.8 (21%)

CT (40%)

SI (16%)

FB (38%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	AZL Rangers	6	0	5	24	7	6	1	—	—	—	10.80	—	—
2021	20	A	Down East Wood Ducks	21	16	73	326	84	48	6	19.1%	17.4%	2.4%	3.33	5.01	+0.0
2022	21	A+	Hickory Crawdads	24	22	105	448	115	44	9	18.9%	11.0%	2.6%	4.56	4.32	+1.2
2023	22	A+	Hickory Crawdads	31	6	54	248	64	29	7	18.8%	13.6%	3.8%	5.33	5.34	-0.2
2024	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	41	0	51	244	79	32	3	25.2%	15.0%	1.6%	3.71	3.72	+0.7
2025	24	AAA	Round Rock Express	51	0	61	288	86	46	4	24.7%	17.3%	1.7%	4.40	4.15	+0.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	MLB	Texas Rangers	7	0	7	28	12	2	1	—	—	—	2.57	—	—
ROS	25	MLB	TEX	57	—	57	239	61	36	6	25.7%	14.9%	2.6%	4.61	4.61	+0.2
2026 Total	25	MLB	TEX	—	—	64	267	73	38	7	27.5%	14.1%	2.7%	4.39	4.10	+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	26	MLB	TEX	57	—	57	240	62	34	6	25.7%	14.3%	2.6%	4.56	4.55	+0.3
2028	27	MLB	TEX	56	—	56	239	61	33	6	25.5%	13.9%	2.7%	4.55	4.55	+0.3
2029	28	MLB	TEX	56	—	56	235	60	32	6	25.4%	13.7%	2.7%	4.55	4.56	+0.2
2030	29	MLB	TEX	54	—	54	230	58	31	6	25.2%	13.7%	2.8%	4.58	4.60	+0.2
2031	30	MLB	TEX	53	—	53	223	56	31	6	25.0%	13.8%	2.8%	4.63	4.66	+0.2
2032	31	MLB	TEX	51	—	51	215	53	30	6	24.8%	13.9%	2.9%	4.69	4.73	+0.1
2033	32	MLB	TEX	49	—	49	207	51	29	6	24.5%	14.1%	3.0%	4.77	4.82	+0.1
2034	33	MLB	TEX	47	—	47	198	48	28	6	24.2%	14.3%	3.1%	4.86	4.92	+0.0
2035	34	MLB	TEX	44	—	44	188	45	27	6	23.8%	14.5%	3.2%	4.96	5.03	-0.0
2036	35	MLB	TEX	42	—	42	177	41	26	6	23.4%	14.7%	3.3%	5.07	5.15	-0.1
2037	36	MLB	TEX	39	—	39	166	38	25	6	23.0%	14.9%	3.4%	5.20	5.29	-0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			181	44	356	1606	345	234	40	21.5%	14.6%	2.5%	4.32	4.49	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—			102	25	200	902	194	131	22	21.5%	14.6%	2.5%	4.32	4.49	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gavin Collyer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	25.7%	14.9%	2.6%	—	4.55	25.5%	11.5%	169	-0.06	—	—	—
Tommy Kahnle R 2026 · 4.17 FIP	25	SW	4.17	23.8%	14.8%	2.2%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.59	1.53	433	81
Calvin Faucher R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	25	SW	4.69	24.3%	13.7%	3.5%	.350	3.65	23.9%	13.7%	144	-1.04	2.08	381	81
Manny Barreda R 2027 · 5.08 FIP	26	SU	5.08	21.2%	14.7%	3.5%	.286	3.67	19.6%	9.5%	186	-1.41	3.25	376	79
Josh Staumont R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	25.9%	15.1%	2.8%	.263	3.50	27.6%	14.9%	129	-0.87	3.11	618	79
Bryan Baker R 2025 · 3.85 FIP	24	SW	3.85	25.7%	15.8%	1.7%	.258	2.61	25.8%	16.4%	111	-1.24	2.58	500	78
Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.48	21.4%	11.7%	382	+0.11	3.69	509	78
Jimmy Herget R 2026 · 4.68 FIP	25	SW	4.68	23.8%	14.6%	3.2%	.241	3.16	24.0%	17.2%	150	-1.52	2.42	607	77
Rowan Wick R 2026 · 3.57 FIP	25	SW	3.57	23.5%	13.4%	1.4%	.265	2.59	27.1%	18.0%	109	-0.98	2.46	361	77
Hunter Bigge R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	25	SW	4.09	23.4%	15.4%	1.8%	.316	4.18	32.2%	23.0%	52	+0.09	3.43	180	76
Eric Orze R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	26.2%	15.8%	2.4%	.319	3.80	26.7%	15.6%	132	-0.42	3.46	290	74
Tyler Bashlor R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	25	SW	4.72	21.3%	10.9%	3.7%	.222	4.52	21.9%	10.6%	97	-0.20	2.55	253	74
Eduard Santos R 2026 · 3.50 FIP	25	SW	3.50	28.1%	15.2%	1.6%	.265	3.49	24.0%	10.0%	79	-0.01	2.04	138	74
Joey Krehbiel R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	25	SW	4.38	26.1%	10.1%	4.0%	.294	5.41	21.6%	10.9%	107	+1.03	3.34	556	73
Thyago Vieira R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	21.5%	12.5%	2.1%	.324	4.41	21.1%	10.3%	47	+0.42	3.04	311	73
Steven Wilson R 2025 · 4.02 FIP	24	SW	4.02	27.2%	10.7%	3.4%	.271	3.68	29.3%	19.9%	92	-0.34	3.61	311	73
Matt Blackham R 2026 · 3.93 FIP	25	SW	3.93	24.9%	15.7%	1.7%	.236	4.83	25.9%	12.0%	80	+0.90	2.08	187	73
Luis Ramirez R 2025 · 3.73 FIP	24	SW	3.73	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	104	73
Spencer Patton R 2028 · 3.49 FIP	27	SW	3.49	26.8%	9.6%	2.6%	.295	2.83	30.3%	18.1%	57	-0.66	2.83	239	73
Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	26	SW	3.85	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.07	3.23	161	73
Sean Isaac R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	25	SW	4.21	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	73

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.