Gavin Collyer

P Round Rock Express

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 165 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	41	51	3.71	2.65	32.4%	13.1%	—	K 25.2% · BB 15.0% · FIP 3.72
2025	24	MIX2 levels	51	61	4.40	3.39	29.9%	16.0%	—	K 24.6% · BB 16.5% · FIP 4.05
2026	25	MIX2 levels	52	55	3.74	3.41	26.5%	14.7%	0.8	K 24.1% · BB 14.0% · FIP 3.49
2027PROJ	26	MLBTEX	86	90	4.56	4.70	25.8%	16.5%	-0.2
2028PROJ81% MLB	27	MLBTEX	74	78	4.62	4.69	25.4%	15.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ86% MLB	28	MLBTEX	69	72	4.68	4.74	25.1%	15.2%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%38

xwOBA vs36

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 1.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsManny Barreda (age 26) · Justin Anderson (age 26) · Seth Halvorsen (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.56

FIP4.70

K%25.8%

BB%16.5%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP125

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.3

Whiff%

p5125.5%

p3820.4%

xwOBA vs

p360.328

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	6	0	5	24	7	6	1	0%	0.8	29.2%	25.0%	4.2%	4.2%	10.80	6.09	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	6	0	5	24	7	6	1	0%	0.8	29.2%	25.0%	4.2%	4.2%	10.80	6.50	—
2021	20	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	21	16	73	326	84	48	6	76%	3.5	19.1%	17.4%	1.7%	2.4%	3.33	5.01	—
2021	20	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	21	16	73	326	84	48	6	76%	3.5	25.8%	14.7%	11.0%	1.8%	3.33	3.84	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	105	448	115	44	9	92%	4.4	18.9%	11.0%	8.0%	2.7%	4.56	4.35	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	105	448	115	44	9	92%	4.4	25.7%	9.8%	15.8%	2.0%	4.56	3.28	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	6	54	248	64	29	7	19%	1.7	18.8%	13.6%	5.3%	3.9%	5.33	5.37	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	6	54	248	64	29	7	19%	1.7	25.8%	11.7%	14.1%	2.8%	5.33	4.03	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	51	244	79	32	3	0%	1.2	25.2%	15.0%	10.3%	1.6%	3.71	3.72	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	51	244	79	32	3	0%	1.2	25.2%	15.0%	10.3%	1.6%	3.71	3.72	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	51	244	79	32	3	0%	1.2	32.4%	13.1%	19.3%	1.2%	3.71	2.65	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	61	288	86	46	4	0%	1.2	24.6%	16.5%	8.0%	1.7%	4.40	4.05	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	61	288	86	46	4	0%	1.2	24.6%	16.5%	8.0%	1.7%	4.40	4.05	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	61	288	86	46	4	0%	1.2	29.9%	16.0%	13.9%	1.4%	4.40	3.39	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	55	245	65	36	3	0%	1.1	24.1%	14.0%	10.2%	1.2%	3.74	3.49	+0.7
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	55	245	65	36	3	0%	1.1	24.1%	14.0%	10.2%	1.2%	3.74	3.49	+0.7
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	55	245	65	36	3	0%	1.1	26.5%	14.7%	11.8%	1.2%	3.74	3.41	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			24	0	25	113	23	18	2	0%	1.0	20.4%	15.9%	4.4%	1.8%	5.40	4.46	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TEX	86	0	90	380	98	63	9	0%	1.0	25.8%	16.5%	9.3%	2.4%	4.56	4.70	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TEX	92	0	96	407	104	64	10	0%	1.0	25.4%	15.7%	9.7%	2.5%	4.62	4.69	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	TEX	80	0	84	353	88	54	9	0%	1.0	25.1%	15.2%	9.8%	2.6%	4.68	4.74	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	TEX	71	0	75	315	77	48	9	0%	1.1	24.3%	15.1%	9.2%	2.8%	4.79	4.88	-0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	TEX	63	0	66	281	66	43	8	0%	1.1	23.5%	15.2%	8.3%	3.0%	4.95	5.07	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	TEX	74	0	78	329	84	52	8	0%	1.1	25.4%	15.7%	9.7%	2.5%	4.62	4.69	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	TEX	69	0	72	304	76	46	8	0%	1.0	25.1%	15.2%	9.8%	2.6%	4.68	4.74	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	TEX	63	0	66	279	68	42	8	0%	1.0	24.3%	15.1%	9.2%	2.8%	4.79	4.88	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	TEX	57	0	60	253	60	39	8	0%	1.1	23.5%	15.2%	8.3%	3.0%	4.95	5.07	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		287	0	301	1280	311	197	34	0%	1.1	24.3%	15.4%	8.9%	2.6%	4.80	4.45	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	849	206	131	23	0%	1.0	24.3%	15.4%	8.9%	2.6%	4.80	4.45	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		226	44	404	1823	392	264	42	19%	1.8	21.5%	14.5%	7.0%	2.3%	4.27	4.38	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	22	200	902	194	131	21	19%	1.8	21.5%	14.5%	7.0%	2.3%	4.27	4.38	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 30 IPFIP 2.56 → 2.80 (+0.25)K% 31.8% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.82%	—	×0.860	27.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×0.900	12.27%
HR / BF /BF	0.76%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.83%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.56 → 2.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 45 IPFIP 3.14 → 4.01 (+0.87)K% 31.2% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.25%	—	×0.810	25.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.90%	—	×1.100	16.39%
HR / BF /BF	1.44%	÷0.976	×1.200	1.77%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 3.14 → 4.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 16 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.16 (+0.21)K% 26.2% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.25%	—	×0.860	22.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.75%	—	×0.900	16.88%
HR / BF /BF	1.25%	÷0.913	×1.100	1.51%

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hickory Crawdads · 50 IPFIP 2.67 → 3.72 (+1.05)K% 32.8% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.77%	—	×0.770	25.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.03%	—	×1.150	14.98%
HR / BF /BF	1.26%	÷1.014	×1.250	1.55%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.67 → 3.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hickory Crawdads · 51 IPFIP 4.15 → 5.37 (+1.22)K% 24.5% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.47%	—	×0.770	18.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.81%	—	×1.150	13.59%
HR / BF /BF	2.95%	÷0.948	×1.250	3.90%

Result: FIP 4.15 → 5.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADown East Wood Ducks · 101 IPFIP 3.14 → 4.35 (+1.21)K% 25.6% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.58%	—	×0.740	18.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.30%	—	×1.180	10.98%
HR / BF /BF	1.86%	÷0.912	×1.300	2.65%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 3.14 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ADown East Wood Ducks · 73 IPFIP 3.80 → 5.01 (+1.21)K% 25.8% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.77%	—	×0.740	19.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.72%	—	×1.180	17.37%
HR / BF /BF	1.84%	÷0.996	×1.300	2.40%

Result: FIP 3.80 → 5.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Rangers · 5 IPFIP 6.09 → 8.59 (+2.49)K% 29.2% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.17%	—	×0.680	19.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	25.00%	—	×1.250	31.25%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷1.000	×1.400	5.83%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.09 → 8.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gavin Collyer (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.4%	—	4.76	25.0%	9.6%	255	+0.06	—	—	—
Manny Barreda R 2015 · 5.04 FIP	26	SU	5.04	21.2%	14.7%	3.4%	.286	3.69	19.6%	9.5%	186	-1.35	3.30	376	74
Justin Anderson R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	26	SU	4.12	27.6%	14.7%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	587	72
Seth Halvorsen R 2024 · 3.82 FIP	24	SU	3.82	21.0%	12.5%	1.7%	.330	4.30	21.3%	11.0%	96	+0.48	3.82	131	72
Ray Black R 2016 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	30.0%	24.6%	0.9%	.281	3.88	34.6%	23.4%	94	-0.27	2.95	150	72
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.49	22.0%	0.2%	51	+0.40	4.09	130	71
Zak Kent R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	26	SW	4.04	21.5%	14.0%	1.8%	.358	3.98	21.4%	11.7%	129	-0.06	3.13	385	69
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	68
Ian Gibaut R 2020 · 4.76 FIP	26	SU	4.76	23.7%	15.3%	3.1%	.265	3.37	23.7%	14.3%	176	-1.39	2.63	430	67
Sean Reynolds R 2024 · 3.55 FIP	26	SU	3.55	23.0%	11.8%	1.6%	.367	4.93	18.5%	3.0%	55	+1.38	3.55	258	67
Tyler Bashlor R 2019 · 4.88 FIP	26	SU	4.88	20.7%	11.7%	3.7%	.258	4.10	23.7%	13.0%	38	-0.78	2.55	253	67
Tyler Kinley R 2017 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	25.0%	10.3%	2.6%	.295	3.82	25.0%	11.7%	140	+0.08	1.58	602	67
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	67
Brian Ellington R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	26	SU	4.75	25.5%	14.9%	3.5%	.283	5.61	22.4%	5.3%	29	+0.86	2.75	233	66
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	66
Eduardo Herrera R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.5%	15.7%	2.2%	.284	4.44	16.7%	-5.0%	31	+0.31	4.13	127	66
Cody Morris R 2023 · 5.08 FIP	26	SU	5.08	23.9%	15.6%	3.7%	.203	3.90	23.3%	9.5%	38	-1.18	2.23	256	66
Stevie Branche R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	25.6%	19.1%	1.2%	.274	5.67	19.3%	1.7%	28	+1.63	3.23	162	66
Ryan Jensen R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	26.6%	17.2%	1.6%	.331	4.35	21.9%	5.6%	50	+0.43	3.92	311	66
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	65
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	78	24.7%	15.7%	1.00	4.73
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*
Matt Mantei ('05)	1.6	54	28.0%	14.1%	0.84	4.07