Gavin Collyer
P
Texas Rangers
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 165 lbs
MLB
2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 103 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122112vR 103
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
K%25.5%
BB%17.9%
K-BB%7.6%
ROS IP103
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.4
Whiff%
p6026.8%
K%
p4621.6%
xwOBA vs
p590.303
SL+0.8 (21%)
CT (36%)
SI (19%)
FB (43%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 6 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 0.8 | 29.2% | 25.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 10.80 | 6.09 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 6 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 0.8 | 29.2% | 25.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 10.80 | 6.50 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 21 | 16 | 73 | 326 | 84 | 48 | 6 | 76% | 3.5 | 19.1% | 17.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.33 | 5.02 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 21 | 16 | 73 | 326 | 84 | 48 | 6 | 76% | 3.5 | 25.8% | 14.7% | 11.0% | 1.8% | 3.33 | 3.84 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 22 | 105 | 448 | 115 | 44 | 9 | 92% | 4.4 | 18.9% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.50 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 22 | 105 | 448 | 115 | 44 | 9 | 92% | 4.4 | 25.7% | 9.8% | 15.8% | 2.0% | 4.56 | 3.28 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 6 | 54 | 248 | 64 | 29 | 7 | 19% | 1.7 | 18.8% | 13.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.33 | 5.49 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 6 | 54 | 248 | 64 | 29 | 7 | 19% | 1.7 | 25.8% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 5.33 | 4.03 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 51 | 244 | 79 | 32 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.2% | 15.0% | 10.3% | 1.5% | 3.71 | 3.71 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 51 | 244 | 79 | 32 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 32.4% | 13.1% | 19.3% | 1.2% | 3.71 | 2.65 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 61 | 288 | 86 | 46 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.7% | 17.3% | 7.4% | 1.8% | 4.40 | 4.18 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 61 | 288 | 86 | 46 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.9% | 16.0% | 13.9% | 1.4% | 4.40 | 3.39 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 39 | 0 | 39 | 173 | 47 | 30 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 17.7% | 7.6% | 1.2% | 3.23 | 3.87 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TEX | 98 | 0 | 103 | 434 | 110 | 78 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.5% | 17.9% | 7.6% | 2.4% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TEX | 98 | 0 | 103 | 435 | 111 | 78 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.5% | 17.9% | 7.6% | 2.4% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 142 | 607 | 157 | 108 | 12 | — | — | 25.9% | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.0% | 4.16 | 4.34 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 125 | 527 | 157 | 108 | 12 | — | — | 29.9% | 20.4% | 9.5% | 2.3% | 4.73 | 4.45 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 119 | 0 | 125 | 527 | 129 | 87 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 16.6% | 7.9% | 2.4% | 4.84 | 4.83 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 117 | 0 | 123 | 518 | 126 | 83 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 16.0% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 4.81 | 4.82 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 112 | 0 | 118 | 498 | 122 | 83 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 16.6% | 7.9% | 2.4% | 4.84 | 4.83 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 111 | 0 | 117 | 494 | 120 | 79 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 16.0% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 4.81 | 4.82 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 344 | 0 | 360 | 1523 | 374 | 255 | 36 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 16.8% | 7.8% | 2.3% | 4.67 | 4.44 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 0 | 200 | 847 | 208 | 142 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 16.8% | 7.8% | 2.3% | 4.67 | 4.44 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 213 | 44 | 388 | 1751 | 377 | 263 | 43 | 21% | 1.8 | 21.5% | 15.0% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 4.24 | 4.53 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 110 | 23 | 200 | 903 | 194 | 135 | 22 | 21% | 1.8 | 21.5% | 15.0% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 4.24 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gavin Collyer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.02 | 25.5% | 17.9% | 2.6% | — | 4.83 | 24.4% | 8.1% | 248 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Josh Staumont R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.34 | 25.9% | 15.1% | 2.8% | .263 | 3.55 | 27.6% | 14.9% | 129 | -0.79 | 3.17 | 618 | 69 |
| Hunter Bigge R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 23.4% | 15.4% | 1.8% | .316 | 4.44 | 27.8% | 16.5% | 86 | +0.39 | 3.39 | 213 | 68 |
| Calvin Faucher R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.82 | 24.3% | 13.7% | 3.7% | .350 | 3.67 | 23.9% | 13.7% | 144 | -1.15 | 2.08 | 420 | 67 |
| Sean Reynolds R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.50 | 20.1% | 17.4% | 1.6% | .315 | 4.45 | 21.1% | 5.7% | 109 | -0.05 | 3.70 | 258 | 66 |
| Ariel Hernández R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 24.0% | 18.9% | 2.1% | .229 | 3.83 | 19.1% | 2.2% | 55 | -0.78 | 3.74 | 192 | 66 |
| Bryan Baker R 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 25.7% | 15.8% | 1.9% | .258 | 2.55 | 25.8% | 16.4% | 111 | -1.42 | 2.41 | 537 | 66 |
| Tommy Kahnle R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.00 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 1.9% | .284 | 2.56 | 30.9% | 21.0% | 165 | -1.44 | 1.52 | 452 | 65 |
| Manny Barreda R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.91 | 21.2% | 14.7% | 3.2% | .286 | 3.68 | 19.6% | 9.5% | 186 | -1.23 | 3.19 | 376 | 64 |
| Thyago Vieira R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.91 | 21.5% | 12.5% | 1.9% | .324 | 4.09 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 47 | +0.18 | 3.05 | 311 | 64 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 21.2% | 18.6% | 1.9% | .329 | 4.35 | 25.0% | 5.4% | 107 | -0.34 | 4.20 | 311 | 63 |
| Yency Almonte R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.43 | 18.8% | 12.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 3.49 | 24.2% | 16.2% | 129 | -0.94 | 2.70 | 732 | 63 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 23.7% | 17.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 23.5% | 5.1% | 71 | -1.37 | 3.28 | 197 | 62 |
| Jairo Díaz R 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.40 | 18.8% | 13.6% | 2.1% | .281 | 3.23 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 18 | -1.17 | 2.85 | 190 | 62 |
| Sean Isaac R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.25 | 24.2% | 16.3% | 2.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 155 | 61 |
| José Ramírez R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.89 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .312 | 3.86 | 22.4% | 11.8% | 136 | -0.03 | 3.28 | 206 | 61 |
| Malik Barrington R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.92 | 22.4% | 16.7% | 1.1% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.91 | 132 | 61 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 61 |
| Eric Orze R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.22 | 26.2% | 15.8% | 2.4% | .319 | 3.56 | 24.9% | 14.0% | 173 | -0.66 | 3.06 | 331 | 61 |
| Carlos Contreras R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.30 | 22.2% | 15.6% | 2.0% | .271 | 4.65 | 11.9% | 2.4% | 40 | +0.35 | 4.30 | 107 | 61 |
| Fernando Baez R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.39 | 24.3% | 21.2% | 3.0% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 129 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 124 | 24.8% | 16.8% | 0.97 | 4.89 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |