Ian Gibaut — OGILVIE

Ian Gibaut P Cincinnati Reds

Age 32 RHP 6'3" / 250 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.29

FIP4.51

K%18.1%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%10.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p1017.5%

p1013.8%

xwOBA vs

p500.312

CH (3%)

FB (51%)

CT (16%)

SL-1.4 (29%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	12	0	30	120	38	8	2	0%	2.5	21.5%	8.3%	13.2%	2.3%	2.12	3.62	—
2015	21	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	12	0	30	120	38	8	2	0%	2.5	31.7%	6.7%	25.0%	1.7%	2.12	2.22	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	57	238	63	20	2	0%	1.7	17.3%	10.9%	6.4%	1.1%	2.53	3.62	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	57	238	63	20	2	0%	1.7	26.5%	8.4%	18.1%	0.8%	2.53	2.40	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	61	252	77	26	6	0%	1.3	23.0%	12.4%	10.6%	3.2%	2.21	4.49	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	61	252	77	26	6	0%	1.3	30.6%	10.3%	20.2%	2.4%	2.21	3.13	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	48	0	56	222	75	20	3	0%	1.2	29.7%	9.5%	20.3%	1.5%	2.09	2.63	—
2018	24	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	48	0	56	222	75	20	3	0%	1.2	33.8%	9.0%	24.8%	1.4%	2.09	2.19	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	1	32	155	39	24	2	3%	1.1	25.1%	16.8%	8.3%	0.7%	5.01	3.49	+0.4
2019	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	1	32	155	39	24	2	3%	1.1	25.2%	15.5%	9.7%	1.3%	5.01	3.72	+0.3
2020	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	14	0	12	59	14	9	2	0%	0.9	23.7%	15.3%	8.5%	3.2%	6.57	4.76	-0.0
2020	26	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	14	0	12	59	14	9	2	0%	0.9	23.7%	15.3%	8.5%	3.4%	6.57	5.13	-0.1
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	1	52	236	58	23	7	3%	1.5	22.8%	10.6%	12.2%	2.4%	6.27	3.81	+0.5
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	1	52	236	58	23	7	3%	1.5	24.6%	9.7%	14.8%	3.0%	6.27	3.95	+0.4
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	56	239	67	26	3	0%	1.1	27.1%	11.0%	16.0%	1.2%	4.04	2.85	+1.1
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	56	239	67	26	3	0%	1.1	28.0%	10.9%	17.2%	1.3%	4.04	2.79	+1.2
2023	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	74	0	76	318	69	24	8	0%	1.0	21.7%	7.5%	14.2%	2.3%	3.33	3.50	+0.9
2023	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	74	0	76	318	69	24	8	0%	1.0	21.7%	7.5%	14.2%	2.3%	3.33	3.50	+0.9
2023	29	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	74	0	76	318	69	24	8	0%	1.0	21.7%	7.5%	14.2%	2.5%	3.33	3.60	+0.9
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	1	12	61	11	8	3	8%	0.9	18.0%	13.1%	4.9%	4.9%	8.49	5.94	-0.2
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	1	12	61	11	8	3	8%	0.9	18.0%	13.1%	4.9%	4.9%	8.49	5.94	-0.2
2024	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	1	12	61	11	8	3	8%	0.9	18.0%	13.1%	4.9%	4.9%	8.49	6.61	-0.3
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	31	132	20	11	3	0%	1.0	13.8%	7.3%	6.4%	2.5%	4.94	4.27	+0.1
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	31	132	20	11	3	0%	1.0	13.8%	7.3%	6.4%	2.5%	4.94	4.27	+0.1
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	31	132	20	11	3	0%	1.0	15.2%	8.3%	6.8%	2.3%	4.94	4.13	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			162	0	172	748	167	71	19	0%	1.1	22.3%	9.5%	12.8%	2.5%	4.18	3.83	+1.5
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	32	MLB	CIN	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	18.1%	7.9%	10.2%	2.8%	4.29	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	CIN	51	0	53	225	39	19	7	0%	1.0	17.2%	8.4%	8.9%	3.1%	4.59	4.79	-0.1
2028	34	MLB MLE	CIN	46	0	48	205	33	18	7	0%	1.1	16.3%	8.9%	7.5%	3.4%	4.89	5.09	-0.3
2029	35	MLB MLE	CIN	41	0	44	184	28	17	7	0%	1.1	15.4%	9.4%	5.9%	3.7%	5.21	5.43	-0.4
2027	33	MLB CTX	CIN	49	0	51	215	37	18	7	0%	1.0	17.2%	8.4%	8.9%	3.1%	4.59	4.79	-0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	CIN	42	0	44	186	30	16	6	0%	1.0	16.3%	8.9%	7.5%	3.4%	4.89	5.09	-0.3
2029	35	MLB CTX	CIN	35	0	37	156	24	15	6	0%	1.1	15.4%	9.4%	5.9%	3.7%	5.21	5.43	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		288	0	304	1305	258	120	38	0%	1.1	19.8%	9.2%	10.6%	2.9%	4.48	4.19	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	858	170	79	25	0%	1.1	19.8%	9.2%	10.6%	2.9%	4.48	4.19	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		389	3	474	2032	461	216	42	1%	1.2	22.7%	10.6%	12.0%	2.1%	3.70	3.67	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		164	1	200	857	194	91	18	1%	1.2	22.7%	10.6%	12.0%	2.1%	3.70	3.67	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ian Gibaut (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	18.1%	7.9%	2.8%	—	5.08	16.4%	7.5%	145	+0.57	—	—	—
Cory Gearrin R 2018 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	8.1%	3.1%	.292	3.78	19.5%	9.5%	55	-0.24	3.15	272	78
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	75
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	75
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	74
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	74
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	74
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	74
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	74
Jonathan Broxton R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	22.0%	7.3%	2.9%	.256	4.34	20.5%	9.0%	16	+0.57	3.67	137	74
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	74
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	74
Bryan Morris R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	30	SU	3.60	16.0%	9.6%	1.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	102	73
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	73
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	72
Brad Brach R 2018 · 3.44 FIP	32	SU	3.44	20.8%	9.0%	1.7%	.338	4.06	24.4%	11.0%	97	+0.62	2.69	410	72
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	72
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	71
Josh Fields R 2018 · 3.48 FIP	32	SU	3.48	21.4%	6.5%	2.5%	.224	7.56	18.9%	9.5%	25	+4.08	1.90	238	71
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	71
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	51	16.9%	8.6%	1.25	4.71
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41