Ian Gibaut
P
Cincinnati Reds
Age 32
RHP
6'3" / 250 lbs
MLB
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122112vR 103
ERA4.30
FIP4.52
K%18.1%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%10.2%
ROS IP58
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p1017.5%
K%
p1013.8%
xwOBA vs
p500.312
CH (3%)
FB (51%)
CT (16%)
SL-1.4 (29%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 12 | 0 | 30 | 120 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 2.5 | 21.5% | 8.3% | 13.2% | 2.3% | 2.12 | 3.62 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 12 | 0 | 30 | 120 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 2.5 | 31.7% | 6.7% | 25.0% | 1.7% | 2.12 | 2.22 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 57 | 238 | 63 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.7 | 17.3% | 10.9% | 6.4% | 1.0% | 2.53 | 3.56 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 57 | 238 | 63 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.7 | 26.5% | 8.4% | 18.1% | 0.8% | 2.53 | 2.40 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 61 | 252 | 77 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.0% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 2.21 | 4.48 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 61 | 252 | 77 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.6% | 10.3% | 20.2% | 2.4% | 2.21 | 3.13 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 48 | 0 | 56 | 222 | 75 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.7% | 9.5% | 20.3% | 1.6% | 2.09 | 2.66 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 48 | 0 | 56 | 222 | 75 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 33.8% | 9.0% | 24.8% | 1.4% | 2.09 | 2.19 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 1 | 32 | 155 | 39 | 24 | 2 | 3% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 16.8% | 8.3% | 0.7% | 5.01 | 3.49 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 1 | 32 | 155 | 39 | 24 | 2 | 3% | 1.1 | 25.2% | 15.5% | 9.7% | 1.3% | 5.01 | 3.72 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 14 | 0 | 12 | 59 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.7% | 15.3% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 6.57 | 4.84 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 14 | 0 | 12 | 59 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.7% | 15.3% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 6.57 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 1 | 52 | 236 | 58 | 23 | 7 | 3% | 1.5 | 22.8% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 2.1% | 6.27 | 3.68 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 1 | 52 | 236 | 58 | 23 | 7 | 3% | 1.5 | 24.6% | 9.7% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 6.27 | 3.95 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 56 | 239 | 67 | 26 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.1% | 11.0% | 16.0% | 1.2% | 4.04 | 2.87 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 56 | 239 | 67 | 26 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.0% | 10.9% | 17.2% | 1.3% | 4.04 | 2.79 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 74 | 0 | 76 | 318 | 69 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 7.5% | 14.2% | 2.4% | 3.33 | 3.53 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 74 | 0 | 76 | 318 | 69 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 7.5% | 14.2% | 2.5% | 3.33 | 3.60 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 1 | 12 | 61 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 8% | 0.9 | 18.0% | 13.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 8.49 | 5.94 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 1 | 12 | 61 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 8% | 0.9 | 18.0% | 13.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 8.49 | 6.61 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 31 | 132 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 4.94 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 31 | 132 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 4.94 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 44 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 51 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 39 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.80 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 46 | 0 | 48 | 205 | 33 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 4.90 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 41 | 0 | 44 | 184 | 28 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.4% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 5.22 | 5.44 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 37 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 30 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 4.90 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 24 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.4% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 5.22 | 5.44 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 288 | 0 | 304 | 1305 | 258 | 120 | 38 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.19 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 858 | 170 | 79 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 389 | 3 | 474 | 2032 | 461 | 216 | 42 | 1% | 1.2 | 22.7% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 2.0% | 3.70 | 3.66 | +9.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 164 | 1 | 200 | 857 | 194 | 91 | 18 | 1% | 1.2 | 22.7% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 2.0% | 3.70 | 3.66 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ian Gibaut (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 18.1% | 7.9% | 2.8% | — | 5.09 | 16.4% | 7.5% | 145 | +0.57 | — | — | — |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.94 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.77 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.17 | 3.15 | 272 | 75 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 75 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 75 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.77 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.35 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.42 | 3.17 | 225 | 74 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 74 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 74 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 115 | 74 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 74 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 73 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 73 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.34 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.82 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.52 | 2.82 | 316 | 73 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.7% | .338 | 4.07 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.63 | 2.73 | 410 | 73 |
| Hector Navarro R 2029 · 4.75 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.75 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | .281 | 2.93 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.82 | 2.30 | 126 | 72 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.66 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.24 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.57 | 137 | 72 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.15 | 14.7% | 7.2% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 131 | 72 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.21 | 2.51 | 251 | 71 |
| Bryan Morris R 2024 · 3.60 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.60 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 1.2% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 102 | 71 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 108 | 71 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 71 |
| Erik Davis R 2025 · 3.44 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 227 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 51 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 1.26 | 4.72 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |