Ian Gibaut
P
Cincinnati Reds
+0.2
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'3" / 250 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.11
FIP4.41
xFIP5.33
SIERA4.94
K%19.4%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%11.2%
IP25
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL4545
CMD5050
K†5050
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p1017.5%
K%
p1013.8%
xwOBA vs
p500.312
CH (3%)
FB (51%)
CT (16%)
SL-1.4 (29%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 12 | 0 | 30 | 120 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 21.5% | 8.3% | 2.3% | 2.12 | 3.62 | +0.4 |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | 34 | 0 | 57 | 238 | 63 | 20 | 2 | 17.3% | 10.9% | 1.1% | 2.53 | 3.61 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 48 | 0 | 61 | 252 | 77 | 26 | 6 | 23.0% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 2.21 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 48 | 0 | 56 | 222 | 75 | 20 | 3 | 29.7% | 9.5% | 1.5% | 2.09 | 2.62 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 29 | 1 | 32 | 155 | 39 | 24 | 2 | 25.1% | 16.8% | 0.7% | 5.01 | 3.49 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 14 | 0 | 12 | 59 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 23.7% | 15.3% | 3.7% | 6.57 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 35 | 1 | 52 | 236 | 58 | 23 | 7 | 22.8% | 10.6% | 2.3% | 6.27 | 3.78 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 51 | 0 | 56 | 239 | 67 | 26 | 3 | 27.1% | 11.0% | 1.2% | 4.04 | 2.89 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 74 | 0 | 76 | 318 | 69 | 24 | 8 | 21.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | 3.33 | 3.43 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 13 | 1 | 12 | 61 | 11 | 8 | 3 | — | — | — | 8.49 | — | — |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 31 | 0 | 31 | 132 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 13.8% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 4.94 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 25 | — | 25 | 107 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.07 | 4.35 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 24 | — | 24 | 102 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.48 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 389 | 3 | 474 | 2032 | 461 | 216 | 42 | 22.7% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 3.70 | 3.66 | +8.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 164 | 1 | 200 | 857 | 195 | 91 | 18 | 22.7% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 3.70 | 3.66 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ian Gibaut (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.48 | 19.9% | 11.3% | 24 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 77 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 76 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 75 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.08 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.82 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.26 | 3.17 | 272 | 74 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 73 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 72 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.65 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.71 | 3.65 | 137 | 72 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.53 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .338 | 4.03 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.50 | 2.80 | 410 | 72 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 72 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 72 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.46 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 2.5% | .224 | 7.56 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 25 | +4.10 | 1.85 | 238 | 71 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 71 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2024 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 101 | 71 |
| Hector Navarro R 2029 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 71 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.29 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.73 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.56 | 2.73 | 316 | 71 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 70 |
| Aaron Barrett R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .246 | 4.56 | 19.9% | 6.4% | 38 | +0.71 | 1.82 | 119 | 70 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.77 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .280 | 3.48 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.29 | 3.02 | 363 | 70 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 70 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.