Justin Anderson — OGILVIE

Justin Anderson P Charlotte Knights

Age 33 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.44

FIP4.47

K%24.4%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL2525

CMD4040

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p7829.7%

p5723.5%

xwOBA vs

p240.343

SI (14%)

FB (47%)

SL-0.6 (45%)

CT-1.0 (8%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	A MLE	Burlington Bees	28	22	143	611	112	51	4	79%	5.1	13.6%	9.8%	3.7%	0.6%	3.41	3.53	—
2015	22	A RAW	Burlington Bees	28	22	143	611	112	51	4	79%	5.1	18.3%	8.3%	10.0%	0.7%	3.41	2.97	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	28	27	145	662	107	48	15	96%	5.2	12.4%	8.3%	4.1%	3.2%	5.70	4.89	—
2016	23	A+ RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	28	27	145	662	107	48	15	96%	5.2	16.2%	7.3%	8.9%	2.3%	5.70	3.96	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	64	286	42	30	7	0%	1.4	11.2%	11.8%	-0.6%	3.6%	5.06	5.62	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	64	286	42	30	7	0%	1.4	14.7%	10.5%	4.2%	2.4%	5.06	4.62	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	63	0	64	272	81	39	3	0%	1.0	27.8%	15.4%	12.4%	1.2%	3.52	3.37	+0.9
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	63	0	64	272	81	39	3	0%	1.0	29.8%	14.3%	15.4%	1.1%	3.52	3.01	+1.2
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	51	235	67	36	8	0%	0.9	27.6%	14.7%	12.9%	2.7%	6.04	4.12	+0.3
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	51	235	67	36	8	0%	0.9	28.5%	15.3%	13.2%	3.4%	6.04	4.64	-0.1
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	1	13	52	25	5	1	8%	1.0	48.1%	9.6%	38.5%	1.9%	2.77	1.31	—
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	1	13	52	25	5	1	8%	1.0	48.1%	9.6%	38.5%	1.9%	2.77	1.41	—
2022	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	3	0	3	13	4	3	1	0%	1.0	30.8%	23.1%	7.7%	7.7%	6.00	7.65	—
2022	29	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	3	0	3	13	4	3	1	0%	1.0	30.8%	23.1%	7.7%	7.7%	6.00	7.77	—
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	1	37	166	59	20	1	4%	1.5	27.2%	15.1%	12.1%	0.9%	6.87	3.22	—
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	1	37	166	59	20	1	4%	1.5	27.2%	15.1%	12.1%	0.9%	6.87	3.22	—
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	1	37	166	59	20	1	4%	1.5	35.5%	12.0%	23.5%	0.6%	6.87	1.87	—
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	72	0	71	315	82	35	6	0%	1.0	24.7%	11.0%	13.7%	1.9%	3.91	3.45	+0.9
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	72	0	71	315	82	35	6	0%	1.0	24.7%	11.0%	13.7%	1.9%	3.91	3.45	+0.9
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	72	0	71	315	82	35	6	0%	1.0	26.0%	11.1%	14.9%	1.9%	3.91	3.37	+1.0
2025	32	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	31	0	33	164	35	25	2	0%	1.1	17.7%	13.7%	4.0%	1.0%	7.29	3.90	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	31	0	33	164	35	25	2	0%	1.1	17.7%	13.7%	4.0%	1.0%	7.29	3.90	—
2025	32	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	31	0	33	164	35	25	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	15.2%	6.1%	1.2%	7.29	4.03	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			167	0	156	700	184	100	14	0%	0.9	26.3%	14.3%	12.0%	2.0%	4.63	3.83	+1.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	CWS	5	0	5	21	5	3	1	0%	1.0	24.4%	13.4%	11.0%	2.5%	4.44	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	CWS	49	0	51	217	51	30	6	0%	1.0	23.5%	13.9%	9.6%	2.8%	4.64	4.77	-0.1
2028	35	MLB MLE	CWS	44	0	46	194	44	28	6	0%	1.0	22.6%	14.5%	8.1%	3.1%	4.92	5.11	-0.3
2029	36	MLB MLE	CWS	39	0	41	172	37	26	6	0%	1.0	21.6%	15.1%	6.5%	3.5%	5.25	5.47	-0.4
2027	34	MLB CTX	CWS	3	0	3	13	3	2	0	0%	1.0	23.5%	13.9%	9.6%	2.8%	4.64	4.77	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.6%	14.5%	8.1%	3.1%	4.92	5.11	—
2029	36	MLB CTX	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.6%	15.1%	6.5%	3.5%	5.25	5.47	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		170	0	159	714	187	102	14	0%	0.9	26.2%	14.3%	11.9%	2.0%	4.63	3.80	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		214	0	200	898	235	128	18	0%	0.9	26.2%	14.3%	11.9%	2.0%	4.63	3.80	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		365	51	624	2776	519	316	56	14%	1.7	18.7%	11.4%	7.3%	2.0%	4.80	4.08	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	16	200	890	166	101	18	14%	1.7	18.7%	11.4%	7.3%	2.0%	4.80	4.08	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Anderson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	24.4%	13.4%	2.5%	—	5.09	22.6%	8.2%	138	+0.62	—	—	—
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	73
Bryan Shaw R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	33	SU	4.39	21.3%	11.4%	3.0%	.274	3.93	19.2%	8.7%	169	-0.46	2.78	596	73
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	71
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	71
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	69
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	69
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	69
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	68
Cory Gearrin R 2019 · 3.78 FIP	33	SU	3.78	19.5%	10.0%	1.9%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	272	68
Brad Brach R 2019 · 3.43 FIP	33	SU	3.43	24.8%	12.0%	1.7%	.356	4.65	23.0%	9.8%	66	+1.22	2.69	410	68
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.58	22.0%	11.7%	191	+0.06	3.08	366	67
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	67
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	67
Nate Jones R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	32	SU	4.09	23.4%	10.9%	2.9%	.279	5.85	21.4%	13.8%	38	+1.76	2.57	157	66
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	66
Tyler Thornburg R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	33	SU	3.83	17.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	301	66
Radhames Liz R 2018 · 4.45 FIP	34	SU	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.343	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	110	66
Jumbo Diaz R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	33	SU	4.17	20.0%	9.7%	2.8%	.302	2.90	24.2%	15.4%	98	-1.27	2.80	284	65
Dustin Molleken R 2017 · 3.38 FIP	32	SU	3.38	24.3%	12.4%	1.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	129	65
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	22.7%	10.4%	2.0%	.255	4.41	24.1%	13.8%	97	+0.80	3.34	212	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	23.1%	14.1%	1.12	4.78
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41