Justin Anderson
P
Charlotte Knights
Age 33
RHP
6'3" / 230 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 56 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125115vR 106
ERA4.47
FIP4.53
K%24.9%
BB%14.4%
K-BB%10.5%
ROS IP56
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7196.0
Whiff%
p7829.7%
K%
p5723.5%
xwOBA vs
p240.343
SI (14%)
FB (47%)
SL-0.6 (45%)
CT-1.0 (8%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A | Burlington Bees | 28 | 22 | 143 | 611 | 112 | 51 | 4 | 79% | 5.1 | 13.6% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 0.5% | 3.41 | 3.46 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A | Burlington Bees | 28 | 22 | 143 | 611 | 112 | 51 | 4 | 79% | 5.1 | 18.3% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 0.7% | 3.41 | 2.97 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Inland Empire 66ers | 28 | 27 | 145 | 662 | 107 | 48 | 15 | 96% | 5.2 | 12.4% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.70 | 5.19 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Inland Empire 66ers | 28 | 27 | 145 | 662 | 107 | 48 | 15 | 96% | 5.2 | 16.2% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 2.3% | 5.70 | 3.96 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 64 | 286 | 42 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 11.2% | 11.8% | -0.6% | 4.1% | 5.06 | 5.88 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 64 | 286 | 42 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 14.7% | 10.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 5.06 | 4.62 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 63 | 0 | 64 | 272 | 81 | 39 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 15.4% | 12.4% | 1.3% | 3.52 | 3.41 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 63 | 0 | 64 | 272 | 81 | 39 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.8% | 14.3% | 15.4% | 1.1% | 3.52 | 3.01 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 51 | 235 | 67 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.6% | 14.7% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 6.04 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 51 | 235 | 67 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.5% | 15.3% | 13.2% | 3.4% | 6.04 | 4.64 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 1 | 13 | 52 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 8% | 1.0 | 48.1% | 9.6% | 38.5% | 1.9% | 2.77 | 1.31 | — |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 1 | 13 | 52 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 8% | 1.0 | 48.1% | 9.6% | 38.5% | 1.9% | 2.77 | 1.41 | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.8% | 23.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.00 | 7.65 | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.8% | 23.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.00 | 7.77 | — |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 1 | 37 | 166 | 59 | 20 | 1 | 4% | 1.5 | 27.2% | 15.1% | 12.1% | 1.1% | 6.87 | 3.30 | — |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 1 | 37 | 166 | 59 | 20 | 1 | 4% | 1.5 | 35.5% | 12.0% | 23.5% | 0.6% | 6.87 | 1.87 | — |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 72 | 0 | 71 | 315 | 82 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 11.2% | 13.9% | 1.9% | 3.91 | 3.43 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 72 | 0 | 71 | 315 | 82 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 11.1% | 14.9% | 1.9% | 3.91 | 3.37 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 32 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 31 | 0 | 33 | 164 | 35 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 16.0% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 7.29 | 3.99 | — |
| 2025 | 32 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 31 | 0 | 33 | 164 | 35 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 15.2% | 6.1% | 1.2% | 7.29 | 4.03 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 54 | 0 | 56 | 238 | 59 | 34 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 14.4% | 10.5% | 2.4% | 4.47 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 49 | 0 | 51 | 217 | 52 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 14.9% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 45 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 15.4% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 4.98 | 5.17 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 39 | 0 | 41 | 172 | 38 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 16.0% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 5.32 | 5.54 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 14.9% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.83 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.0% | 15.4% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 4.98 | 5.17 | — |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.0% | 16.0% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 5.32 | 5.54 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 170 | 0 | 159 | 714 | 187 | 102 | 14 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.2% | 14.3% | 11.9% | 2.0% | 4.63 | 3.80 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 214 | 0 | 200 | 898 | 235 | 128 | 18 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.2% | 14.3% | 11.9% | 2.0% | 4.63 | 3.80 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 365 | 51 | 624 | 2776 | 522 | 320 | 61 | 14% | 1.7 | 18.8% | 11.5% | 7.3% | 2.2% | 4.80 | 4.18 | +8.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 117 | 16 | 200 | 890 | 167 | 103 | 19 | 14% | 1.7 | 18.8% | 11.5% | 7.3% | 2.2% | 4.80 | 4.18 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Anderson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 24.9% | 14.4% | 2.4% | — | 5.15 | 23.1% | 7.7% | 138 | +0.62 | — | — | — |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 73 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .274 | 3.99 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.41 | 2.78 | 596 | 72 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.44 | 24.8% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .356 | 4.68 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 66 | +1.24 | 2.73 | 410 | 71 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 70 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 69 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.77 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 272 | 68 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 68 |
| Jon Edwards R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 67 |
| Blake Wood R 2024 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 67 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 66 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 11.3% | 2.1% | .304 | 3.43 | 22.8% | 12.6% | 174 | -0.09 | 3.08 | 349 | 66 |
| Radhames Liz R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.31 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 110 | 65 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 65 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 65 |
| Nate Jones R 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.06 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 6.10 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +2.04 | 2.54 | 157 | 65 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2025 · 3.35 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.35 | 24.3% | 12.4% | 1.3% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 129 | 65 |
| Tyler Thornburg R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.89 | 17.5% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 301 | 65 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 64 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.22 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.9% | .302 | 2.90 | 24.2% | 15.4% | 98 | -1.32 | 2.82 | 284 | 64 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2025 · 3.56 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.56 | 22.7% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .255 | 4.23 | 24.1% | 13.8% | 97 | +0.67 | 3.41 | 212 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 23.6% | 15.1% | 1.11 | 4.83 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |