Justin Anderson

P Charlotte Knights

Age 34 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	30	MIX3 levels	24	1	37	6.87	1.87	35.5%	12.0%	—	K 27.2% · BB 15.1% · FIP 3.22
2024	31	MIX2 levels	72	0	71	3.91	3.37	26.0%	11.1%	1.0	K 24.9% · BB 11.0% · FIP 3.43
2025	32	AAACWS	31	0	33	7.29	4.03	21.3%	15.2%	—	K 18.4% · BB 13.7% · FIP 3.85
2026	33	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	34	MLBCWS	6	0	6	4.53	4.59	24.4%	13.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBCWS	2	0	2	4.77	4.92	23.4%	13.9%	-0.0
2029PROJMLE	36	MLBCWS	—	—	0	5.08	5.29	22.4%	14.5%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo71

K%57

xwOBA vs24

CompsDiego Moreno (age 34) · Fernando Rodriguez Jr. (age 34) · Joe Nelson (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.53

FIP4.59

K%24.4%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%11.0%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL2525

CMD4040

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p7829.7%

p5723.5%

xwOBA vs

p240.343

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	A MLE	Burlington Bees	28	22	143	611	112	51	4	79%	5.1	13.6%	9.8%	3.7%	0.6%	3.41	3.53	—
2015	22	A RAW	Burlington Bees	28	22	143	611	112	51	4	79%	5.1	18.3%	8.3%	10.0%	0.7%	3.41	2.97	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	28	27	145	662	107	48	15	96%	5.2	12.4%	8.3%	4.1%	3.2%	5.70	4.89	—
2016	23	A+ RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	28	27	145	662	107	48	15	96%	5.2	16.2%	7.3%	8.9%	2.3%	5.70	3.96	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	64	286	42	30	7	0%	1.4	11.2%	11.8%	-0.6%	3.6%	5.06	5.62	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	64	286	42	30	7	0%	1.4	14.7%	10.5%	4.2%	2.4%	5.06	4.62	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	63	0	64	272	81	39	3	0%	1.0	27.8%	15.4%	12.4%	1.2%	3.52	3.37	+0.9
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	63	0	64	272	81	39	3	0%	1.0	29.8%	14.3%	15.4%	1.1%	3.52	3.01	+1.2
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	51	235	67	36	8	0%	0.9	27.6%	14.7%	12.9%	2.7%	6.04	4.12	+0.3
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	51	235	67	36	8	0%	0.9	28.5%	15.3%	13.2%	3.4%	6.04	4.64	-0.1
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	1	13	52	25	5	1	8%	1.0	48.1%	9.6%	38.5%	1.9%	2.77	1.31	—
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	1	13	52	25	5	1	8%	1.0	48.1%	9.6%	38.5%	1.9%	2.77	1.41	—
2022	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	3	0	3	13	4	3	1	0%	1.0	30.8%	23.1%	7.7%	7.7%	6.00	7.65	—
2022	29	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	3	0	3	13	4	3	1	0%	1.0	30.8%	23.1%	7.7%	7.7%	6.00	7.77	—
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	1	37	166	59	20	1	4%	1.5	27.2%	15.1%	12.1%	0.9%	6.87	3.22	—
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	1	37	166	59	20	1	4%	1.5	35.5%	12.0%	23.5%	0.6%	6.87	1.87	—
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	72	0	71	315	82	35	6	0%	1.0	24.9%	11.0%	13.9%	1.9%	3.91	3.43	+0.9
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	72	0	71	315	82	35	6	0%	1.0	24.9%	11.0%	13.9%	1.9%	3.91	3.43	+0.9
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	72	0	71	315	82	35	6	0%	1.0	26.0%	11.1%	14.9%	1.9%	3.91	3.37	+1.0
2025	32	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	31	0	33	164	35	25	2	0%	1.1	18.4%	13.7%	4.6%	1.0%	7.29	3.85	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	31	0	33	164	35	25	2	0%	1.1	18.4%	13.7%	4.6%	1.0%	7.29	3.85	—
2025	32	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	31	0	33	164	35	25	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	15.2%	6.1%	1.2%	7.29	4.03	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			167	0	156	700	184	100	14	0%	0.9	26.3%	14.3%	12.0%	2.0%	4.63	3.83	+1.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	CWS	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	24.4%	13.4%	11.0%	2.7%	4.53	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	CWS	37	0	39	163	38	23	5	0%	1.0	23.4%	13.9%	9.5%	3.0%	4.77	4.92	-0.2
2029	36	MLB MLE	CWS	27	0	29	121	27	18	4	0%	1.1	22.4%	14.5%	7.9%	3.4%	5.08	5.29	-0.2
2028	35	MLB CTX	CWS	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	23.4%	13.9%	9.5%	3.0%	4.77	4.92	-0.0
2029	36	MLB CTX	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.4%	14.5%	7.9%	3.4%	5.08	5.29	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	158	709	186	101	14	0%	0.9	26.2%	14.3%	12.0%	2.0%	4.63	3.80	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		214	0	200	899	236	128	18	0%	0.9	26.2%	14.3%	12.0%	2.0%	4.63	3.80	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		365	51	624	2776	521	316	56	14%	1.7	18.8%	11.4%	7.4%	2.0%	4.80	4.07	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	16	200	890	167	101	18	14%	1.7	18.8%	11.4%	7.4%	2.0%	4.80	4.07	+0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 33 IPFIP 3.90 → 3.85 (−0.05)K% 21.3% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.34%	—	×0.860	18.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.24%	—	×0.900	13.72%
HR / BF /BF	1.22%	÷1.320	×1.100	1.02%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 164).

Result: FIP 3.90 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 18 IPFIP 1.65 → 2.05 (+0.40)K% 34.2% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.25%	—	×0.860	29.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.48%	—	×0.900	4.93%
HR / BF /BF	1.37%	÷1.016	×1.100	1.48%

Result: FIP 1.65 → 2.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Royals · 18 IPFIP 1.49 → 3.21 (+1.72)K% 44.0% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.05%	—	×0.680	29.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×1.250	20.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.49 → 3.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 16 IPFIP 2.35 → 3.22 (+0.87)K% 29.4% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.41%	—	×0.810	23.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.35%	—	×1.100	8.09%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷0.872	×1.200	2.02%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 2.35 → 3.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAARound Rock Express · 11 IPFIP 2.18 → 2.85 (+0.66)K% 41.3% → 36.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.30%	—	×0.880	36.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.87%	—	×1.050	11.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷0.958	×1.100	2.50%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 2.18 → 2.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAMobile BayBears · 59 IPFIP 4.77 → 5.62 (+0.86)K% 13.8% → 11.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.79%	—	×0.810	11.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.73%	—	×1.100	11.80%
HR / BF /BF	2.68%	÷0.896	×1.200	3.59%

Result: FIP 4.77 → 5.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Inland Empire 66ers · 5 IPFIP 2.09 → 2.70 (+0.62)K% 24.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.00%	—	×0.770	18.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.150	9.20%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.008	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 2.09 → 2.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Inland Empire 66ers · 145 IPFIP 3.90 → 4.89 (+0.99)K% 16.2% → 12.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.16%	—	×0.770	12.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.25%	—	×1.150	8.34%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷0.873	×1.250	3.24%

Result: FIP 3.90 → 4.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Anderson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	24.4%	13.4%	2.7%	—	5.08	23.0%	8.8%	67	+0.49	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	66
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	34	SW	4.07	23.7%	9.9%	3.1%	.253	5.11	25.0%	13.8%	32	+1.04	3.34	335	66
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	66
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	65
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	64
Matt Bush R 2018 · 4.72 FIP	32	SU	4.72	17.6%	13.0%	2.7%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	63
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	63
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	63
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	61
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	61
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	60
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	60
Scott McGough R 2024 · 4.56 FIP	34	SU	4.56	18.6%	12.2%	2.7%	.289	3.82	20.3%	13.1%	57	-0.74	3.55	429	60
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	59
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	59
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	191	58
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	57
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	57
Greg Burke R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	22.1%	7.3%	2.7%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	56
Rafael Dolis R 2022 · 3.61 FIP	34	SU	3.61	19.9%	11.9%	1.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	200	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	46	25.1%	14.4%	0.93	4.67
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Rex Brothers ('21)	1.6	54	27.6%	13.5%	0.98	4.08
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*