Jorge Garcia prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jorge Garcia P ACL Giants Black

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%21.9%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants	13	10	52	220	41	7	3	77%	4.0	12.7%	4.0%	8.7%	1.9%	3.46	3.58	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Giants	13	10	52	220	41	7	3	77%	4.0	18.6%	3.2%	15.5%	1.4%	3.46	2.68	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	6	4	25	99	31	6	5	67%	4.2	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	5.8%	5.04	5.44	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Black	6	4	25	99	31	6	5	67%	4.2	31.3%	6.1%	25.3%	5.1%	5.04	3.94	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	7	0	10	40	14	3	1	0%	1.4	35.0%	7.5%	27.5%	2.5%	2.79	2.47	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	7	0	10	40	14	3	1	0%	1.4	35.0%	7.5%	27.5%	2.5%	2.79	2.48	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	1	54	255	59	21	11	4%	2.1	16.3%	9.9%	6.5%	6.0%	4.83	6.25	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	1	54	255	59	21	11	4%	2.1	16.3%	9.9%	6.5%	6.0%	4.83	6.25	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	1	54	255	59	21	11	4%	2.1	23.1%	8.2%	14.9%	4.3%	4.83	4.73	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.9%	9.5%	12.4%	3.0%	4.51	4.51	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SF	36	0	38	162	36	15	5	0%	1.1	22.4%	9.2%	13.2%	3.0%	4.44	4.41	+0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	SF	15	0	16	68	15	6	2	0%	1.1	22.4%	9.2%	13.2%	3.0%	4.44	4.41	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	16	69	15	6	2	0%	1.0	22.4%	9.2%	13.2%	3.0%	4.44	4.03	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	73	24	0%	1.1	22.4%	9.2%	13.2%	3.0%	4.44	4.03	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		52	15	141	614	105	44	26	29%	2.7	17.0%	7.2%	9.8%	4.3%	4.22	4.92	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	21	200	873	149	63	37	29%	2.7	17.0%	7.2%	9.8%	4.3%	4.22	4.92	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jorge Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	21.9%	9.5%	3.0%	—	4.41	22.4%	13.2%	38	-0.10	—	—	—
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	89
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	85
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	84
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	84
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	84
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	84
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	82
Carlo Reyes R 2022 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.4%	8.6%	2.9%	.318	3.92	24.1%	12.9%	61	-0.14	2.60	229	81
T.J. Weir R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	24	SW	3.97	20.0%	9.1%	2.5%	.319	3.43	19.0%	9.6%	190	-0.54	3.15	349	80
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	80
Jake Lyons R 2023 · 4.13 FIP	24	SW	4.13	20.1%	8.5%	3.0%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	174	80
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	79
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	79
Austin Bergner R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	24	SW	4.99	24.0%	10.9%	4.6%	.277	4.87	21.6%	10.0%	274	-0.12	4.06	464	79
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	79
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.80	25.1%	15.0%	175	-0.63	2.47	305	78
Alex Valverde R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SW	3.62	23.2%	9.3%	2.4%	.321	5.65	18.0%	6.9%	166	+2.03	3.62	423	78
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	78
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	78
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2023 · 5.11 FIP	24	SW	5.11	18.2%	9.9%	4.2%	.304	3.67	18.0%	9.9%	189	-1.44	3.51	330	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	38	22.2%	9.3%	1.17	4.47
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78