Juan Daniel Encarnacion
P
Greenville Drive
+0.5
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 173 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.2%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%12.1%
IP78
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 2 | 14 | 14 | 56 | 238 | 49 | 24 | 1 | 14.0% | 12.6% | 0.6% | 3.86 | 3.84 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 12 | 10 | 46 | 185 | 56 | 11 | 7 | 20.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 2.96 | 5.94 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 26 | 25 | 113 | 486 | 129 | 42 | 4 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 1.0% | 4.05 | 3.27 | +2.6 |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 24 | 21 | 100 | 457 | 101 | 42 | 22 | 17.0% | 10.6% | 6.4% | 6.32 | 6.49 | -1.3 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 19 | 16 | 71 | 319 | 75 | 24 | 8 | 18.4% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 6.50 | 4.26 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 78 | 329 | 70 | 30 | 10 | 21.2% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 78 | 329 | 71 | 30 | 10 | 21.7% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.54 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 77 | 326 | 71 | 30 | 10 | 21.8% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 76 | 321 | 70 | 30 | 10 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.55 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 74 | 314 | 68 | 29 | 10 | 21.8% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.59 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 72 | 305 | 66 | 29 | 10 | 21.6% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.65 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 70 | 294 | 63 | 28 | 10 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.68 | 4.73 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 59 | 27 | 10 | 21.0% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.81 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 56 | 27 | 10 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.85 | 4.91 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 52 | 26 | 9 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 4.95 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 48 | 25 | 9 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 3.7% | 5.07 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 54 | — | 54 | 226 | 44 | 24 | 9 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | 5.19 | 5.28 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 95 | 86 | 385 | 1685 | 304 | 169 | 57 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 4.70 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 45 | 200 | 875 | 158 | 88 | 30 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 4.70 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Daniel Encarnacion (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 21.2% | 9.1% | 3.2% | — | 4.54 | 21.8% | 12.6% | 231 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 93 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 93 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 92 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 91 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 91 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 88 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .284 | 3.18 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 103 | -0.81 | 3.13 | 179 | 88 |
| J.R. Graham R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .317 | 3.65 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 61 | -0.72 | 3.31 | 125 | 88 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.40 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .293 | 5.06 | 17.7% | 7.8% | 115 | +1.66 | 3.40 | 258 | 88 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .313 | 3.35 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.33 | 2.78 | 312 | 87 |
| Héctor Neris R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.97 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .298 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -0.97 | 1.99 | 682 | 87 |
| Darin Gillies R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.82 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 4.2% | .294 | 4.84 | 23.2% | 12.8% | 106 | +0.02 | 4.22 | 295 | 87 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 3.0% | .331 | 4.32 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 122 | +0.00 | 3.48 | 290 | 87 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.08 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 3.84 | 21.6% | 13.4% | 73 | -0.24 | 3.84 | 206 | 87 |
| Cody Tucker R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.99 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.1% | .272 | 5.30 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.31 | 4.99 | 105 | 87 |
| Matt Pierpont R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.50 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .295 | 3.39 | 21.6% | 13.6% | 156 | -0.11 | 2.79 | 280 | 86 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2024 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 278 | 86 |
| Mark McLaughlin R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.95 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 2.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 174 | 86 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.05 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 2.4% | .272 | 3.60 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 129 | -0.45 | 3.20 | 386 | 86 |
| Dusty Isaacs R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.97 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .255 | 4.63 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.66 | 3.16 | 253 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $7M | +$3M | ||