Juan Daniel Encarnacion
P
Greenville Drive
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 173 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 54 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.60
FIP4.60
K%21.2%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP54
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 2 | 14 | 14 | 56 | 238 | 49 | 24 | 1 | 100% | 4.0 | 14.0% | 12.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 3.86 | 3.84 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 2 | 14 | 14 | 56 | 238 | 49 | 24 | 1 | 100% | 4.0 | 20.6% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 0.4% | 3.86 | 2.87 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 12 | 10 | 46 | 185 | 56 | 11 | 7 | 83% | 3.8 | 20.6% | 7.4% | 13.2% | 5.9% | 2.96 | 5.53 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 12 | 10 | 46 | 185 | 56 | 11 | 7 | 83% | 3.8 | 30.3% | 5.9% | 24.3% | 3.8% | 2.96 | 3.36 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 113 | 486 | 129 | 42 | 4 | 96% | 4.4 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 1.2% | 4.05 | 3.38 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 113 | 486 | 129 | 42 | 4 | 96% | 4.4 | 26.5% | 8.6% | 17.9% | 0.8% | 4.05 | 2.39 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 24 | 21 | 100 | 457 | 101 | 42 | 22 | 88% | 4.2 | 17.0% | 10.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.32 | 6.84 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 24 | 21 | 100 | 457 | 101 | 42 | 22 | 88% | 4.2 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 4.8% | 6.32 | 5.21 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 16 | 71 | 319 | 75 | 24 | 8 | 84% | 3.7 | 18.4% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 6.50 | 4.21 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 16 | 71 | 319 | 75 | 24 | 8 | 84% | 3.7 | 23.5% | 7.5% | 16.0% | 2.5% | 6.50 | 3.47 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 9 | 9 | 54 | 230 | 49 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.2% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 9 | 9 | 54 | 230 | 50 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.7% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 9 | 9 | 54 | 227 | 49 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 48 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.64 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 8 | 8 | 50 | 210 | 45 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.5% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 4 | 4 | 23 | 97 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.7% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 31 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 39 | 165 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.5 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 37 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.5% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 4.71 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 125 | 54 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.28 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 79 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.28 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 95 | 86 | 385 | 1685 | 304 | 169 | 59 | 91% | 4.1 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 4.93 | 4.78 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 45 | 200 | 875 | 158 | 88 | 31 | 91% | 4.1 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 4.93 | 4.78 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Daniel Encarnacion (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 21.2% | 9.1% | 3.2% | — | 4.59 | 21.7% | 12.5% | 160 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.39 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.65 | 21.4% | 11.7% | 382 | +0.26 | 3.67 | 509 | 82 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.55 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 1.6% | .286 | 5.51 | 25.3% | 9.1% | 58 | +1.96 | 3.29 | 142 | 79 |
| Ricky Salinas R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.22 | 20.9% | 10.3% | 4.7% | .335 | 5.81 | 14.3% | -0.8% | 71 | +0.59 | 4.87 | 274 | 79 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 78 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 78 |
| Griffin Canning R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.37 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 5.2% | .295 | 4.67 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 299 | -0.70 | 3.70 | 776 | 78 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 77 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 77 |
| Dylan Burns R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 77 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 77 |
| Tyson Hardin R 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.45 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 177 | 76 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 76 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 76 |
| Brett Sears R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.79 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.56 | 23.9% | 18.1% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.56 | 167 | 76 |
| Burch Smith R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 76 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 76 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.79 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.3% | .286 | 5.16 | 19.9% | 6.6% | 108 | +0.37 | 4.09 | 414 | 76 |
| Brett Daniels R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 22.3% | 13.0% | 3.1% | .357 | 4.75 | 18.9% | 2.6% | 77 | +0.20 | 3.98 | 270 | 76 |
| Austin Gordon R 2024 · 5.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.46 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 4.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 159 | 76 |
| Trent Sellers R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.46 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.8% | .290 | 5.09 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 58 | +0.63 | 3.39 | 236 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 53 | 21.6% | 9.3% | 1.27 | 4.60 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |