Hayden Mullins

P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 26 LHP 6'0" / 194 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.1 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #485Pre-ArbFA 2033

Scout OFP42ETA2029FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	A+BOS	22	17	89	3.94	3.32	30.3%	10.8%	—	K 23.4% · BB 12.4% · FIP 4.39
2025	24	MIX2 levels	22	21	102	2.21	3.08	30.0%	12.4%	—	K 24.0% · BB 13.7% · FIP 3.82
2026	25	MIX2 levels	23	21	96	3.95	2.89	33.0%	13.0%	—	K 27.1% · BB 13.7% · FIP 3.54
2027PROJ	26	MLBBOS	20	20	122	4.54	4.54	25.7%	14.6%	0.5
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBBOS	8	8	45	4.49	4.51	25.4%	14.0%	0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBBOS	12	12	69	4.53	4.57	25.0%	13.7%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$2M2032Arb-3$1M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control39Command40FB velo50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 87%

CompsTate Kuehner (age 23) · Christian MacLeod (age 24) · Zack Thompson (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%25.7%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%11.1%

Proj IP122

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL3540

CMD3540

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	6	27	15	5	0	100%	1.6	55.6%	18.5%	37.0%	0.0%	5.68	0.75	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	4	6	27	15	5	0	100%	1.6	55.6%	18.5%	37.0%	0.0%	5.68	0.73	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	22	17	89	389	118	42	10	77%	4.0	23.4%	12.4%	10.9%	3.1%	3.94	4.39	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	22	17	89	389	118	42	10	77%	4.0	23.4%	12.4%	10.9%	3.1%	3.94	4.39	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	22	17	89	389	118	42	10	77%	4.0	30.3%	10.8%	19.5%	2.6%	3.94	3.32	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	102	410	123	51	7	95%	4.6	24.0%	13.7%	10.3%	1.8%	2.21	3.82	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	102	410	123	51	7	95%	4.6	24.0%	13.7%	10.3%	1.8%	2.21	3.82	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	102	410	123	51	7	95%	4.6	30.0%	12.4%	17.6%	1.7%	2.21	3.08	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	96	409	135	53	7	91%	4.2	27.1%	13.7%	13.5%	1.8%	3.95	3.54	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	96	409	135	53	7	91%	4.2	27.1%	13.7%	13.5%	1.8%	3.95	3.54	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	96	409	135	53	7	91%	4.2	33.0%	13.0%	20.0%	1.7%	3.95	2.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	BOS	20	20	122	515	133	75	13	100%	6.1	25.7%	14.6%	11.1%	2.5%	4.54	4.54	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	BOS	20	20	120	506	128	71	13	100%	6.0	25.4%	14.0%	11.3%	2.6%	4.53	4.55	+0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	116	491	123	67	13	100%	6.1	25.0%	13.7%	11.3%	2.7%	4.57	4.61	+0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	111	469	115	64	14	100%	5.8	24.6%	13.6%	10.9%	2.9%	4.66	4.72	+0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	BOS	17	17	104	441	107	61	14	100%	6.1	24.2%	13.8%	10.4%	3.1%	4.80	4.89	+0.0
2032	31	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	97	411	98	58	14	100%	6.1	23.8%	14.1%	9.6%	3.3%	4.98	5.09	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	45	190	48	27	5	100%	5.6	25.4%	14.0%	11.3%	2.5%	4.49	4.51	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	69	291	73	40	8	100%	5.8	25.0%	13.7%	11.3%	2.7%	4.53	4.57	+0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	79	334	82	45	9	100%	6.1	24.6%	13.6%	10.9%	2.8%	4.62	4.68	+0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	82	346	84	48	10	100%	5.9	24.2%	13.8%	10.4%	3.0%	4.76	4.85	+0.0
2032	31	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	81	342	81	48	11	100%	5.8	23.8%	14.1%	9.6%	3.2%	4.93	5.04	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	59	356	1503	368	208	44	100%	6.0	24.5%	13.8%	10.6%	2.9%	4.69	4.38	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	207	117	25	100%	6.0	24.5%	13.8%	10.6%	2.9%	4.69	4.38	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		71	63	293	1235	315	166	27	89%	4.1	25.5%	13.4%	12.1%	2.2%	3.38	3.84	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	43	200	844	216	113	18	89%	4.1	25.5%	13.4%	12.1%	2.2%	3.38	3.84	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hayden Mullins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	25.7%	14.6%	2.5%	—	4.62	25.0%	11.2%	347	+0.08	—	—	—
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	77
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	73
Zack Thompson L 2024 · 4.64 FIP	26	SP	4.64	23.7%	12.2%	3.6%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.03	402	73
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	68
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2016 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.334	3.92	19.3%	9.9%	209	+0.46	3.46	440	68
Kaz Ishii L 2002 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	20.7%	14.9%	2.9%	.275	4.94	16.1%	2.9%	410	+0.11	4.51	564	68
Mitch Farris L 2024 · 3.45 FIP	23	SP-	3.45	23.3%	10.7%	1.8%	.304	4.33	22.7%	11.2%	222	+0.88	3.45	327	68
Ken Waldichuk L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	25	SP-	5.01	20.7%	11.0%	4.1%	.303	5.78	21.8%	6.9%	51	+0.77	3.51	432	67
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	67
Doug Nikhazy L 2024 · 4.12 FIP	24	SP	4.12	21.3%	10.5%	2.7%	.233	5.25	19.2%	7.9%	135	+1.13	4.12	463	67
Trenton Wallace L 2024 · 5.16 FIP	25	SP	5.16	21.8%	11.8%	4.4%	.263	4.69	24.2%	10.2%	52	-0.47	2.87	286	67
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	66
Austin Krob L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	24	SP	3.75	18.2%	9.0%	1.9%	.333	4.61	16.0%	2.1%	47	+0.86	3.59	280	66
Will Dion L 2024 · 4.97 FIP	24	SP	4.97	19.3%	9.4%	4.2%	.309	3.39	23.5%	16.3%	186	-1.58	3.14	535	66
Tyson Guerrero L 2024 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	18.8%	11.2%	2.9%	.268	5.58	23.9%	8.4%	19	+1.06	4.26	250	66
Lael Lockhart L 2024 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP	5.03	23.3%	10.4%	4.7%	.285	4.82	18.1%	6.9%	186	-0.21	3.59	520	65
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	65
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	65
Matt Krook L 2021 · 3.38 FIP	26	SP	3.38	25.4%	14.3%	1.1%	.246	4.22	24.8%	11.0%	216	+0.84	2.37	633	64
Mason Green L 2024 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP-	4.80	18.7%	12.6%	3.1%	.307	3.85	18.2%	6.4%	157	-0.95	3.68	450	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	112	24.8%	14.0%	1.10	4.67
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Les Cain ('68-'72, 2 WAR*)	1.9	93	24.6%*	12.9%*	1.00*	4.66*
Tommy Byrne ('43-'57, 6 WAR*)	6.8	124	23.8%*	13.6%*	0.98*	4.39*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Tony Saunders ('99)	1.7	115	19.7%	13.2%	0.86	4.56
Rick Ankiel ('04)	1.2	81	25.9%	12.5%	1.19	3.90