Matthew Lugo

CF Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 26 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA HR -15%K -8% Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

AAA40-MANROOKIEArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	23	AABOS	171	.315/.398/.664	11	9	128	—	.250/.316/.506
2025	24	MLBLAA	70	.232/.243/.464	4	0	93	-0.1
2026	25	MLBKC	15	.143/.200/.143	0	0	0	0.0
2027PROJ45% MLB	26	MLBKC	112	.230/.288/.406	4	6	97	0.2
2028PROJ56% MLB	27	MLBKC	312	.230/.288/.402	10	18	96	0.6
2029PROJ62% MLB	28	MLBKC	337	.228/.287/.397	11	17	95	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.000First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$0.9M2028Arb-2$3M2029Arb-3$5M2030Arb-4$6M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Max EV78

Speed68

K%36

Whiff%36

Chase%27

Z-Con%24

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 91%

CompsJustin Maxwell (age 26) · Michael A. Taylor (age 27) · Pedro León (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†97

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .288 / .406

PA112

HR4

SB6

K%31

BB%6

BABIP307

ISO186

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

1814.6%

xAVG

100.194

POWER55

Barrel%

6911.0

Avg EV

2887.4

Bat Spd

6973.4

EYE35

Chase%

4233.2%

SPEED50

Sprint

5827.8

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2025

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.2M
2028	Arb-2	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$5M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-4	$6M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.9M		$6M	+$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	18	ROK	GCL Red Sox	—	157	136	35	5	1	1	15	36	3	3	0	257	344	331	675	74	340	23	10	307	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A	Salem Red Sox	—	469	418	113	21	3	4	38	94	7	15	4	270	341	364	705	93	335	20	8	317	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+	Greenville Drive	—	512	466	134	25	10	18	35	100	7	20	7	288	346	500	846	212	330	20	7	368	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	140	120	33	3	0	6	11	34	6	2	3	275	365	450	815	175	329	24	8	358	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	322	289	70	23	1	5	19	89	5	8	4	242	297	381	677	138	327	28	6	297	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	146	129	33	11	0	6	12	38	5	7	0	256	342	481	823	225	318	26	8	364	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	171	146	46	10	4	11	20	36	2	9	1	315	398	664	1.062	349	354	21	12	448	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	70	69	16	2	1	4	0	24	1	0	0	232	243	464	707	232	293	34	0	306	93	-1	+0	-4	+2	+2	-0.1
2025	24	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	462	424	111	28	5	13	32	136	4	11	7	262	320	443	763	182	356	29	7	336	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	104	86	24	7	0	1	16	26	1	4	1	279	394	395	790	116	390	25	15	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	15	14	2	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	143	200	143	343		250	40	7	167	0	-2	+0	+0	+2	+0	0.0
2026	25	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	266	240	63	18	2	12	19	67	4	3	5	263	327	504	831	242	313	25	7	359	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	159	128	33	6	2	3	23	40	4	11	3	258	385	406	791	148	345	25	14	353	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	85	83	18	2	1	4	1	30	1	0	0	217	235	410	645	193	286	35	1	281	76	-2	+0	-4	+4	+2	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	157	141	26	3	1	1	10	52	3	3	0	184	253	241	494	57	264	33	6	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	469	430	101	16	3	4	26	131	7	15	4	235	289	314	603	79	316	28	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	512	480	114	20	7	16	22	124	7	20	7	237	281	408	689	171	280	24	4	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	322	298	63	17	1	4	14	109	5	8	4	211	259	315	574	104	301	34	4	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	146	132	27	8	0	5	9	47	5	7	0	205	281	379	660	174	263	32	6	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	171	156	39	7	3	9	13	43	2	9	1	250	316	506	822	256	298	25	8	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	70	69	16	2	1	4	0	24	1	0	0	232	243	464	707	232	293	34	0	305	93	-1	+0	-4	+2	+2	-0.1
2025	24	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	462	432	94	23	4	9	24	167	4	11	7	218	265	352	617	134	330	36	5	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	15	14	2	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	143	200	143	343		250	40	7	168	0	-2	+0	+0	+2	+0	0.0
2026	25	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	266	245	53	15	2	8	14	80	4	3	5	216	270	392	662	176	276	30	5	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	159	136	29	5	2	2	16	49	4	11	3	213	314	324	638	110	297	31	10	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	157	141	26	3	1	1	10	52	3	3	0	184	253	241	494	57	281	33	6	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	—	157	136	35	5	1	1	15	36	3	3	0	257	344	331	675	74	340	23	10	307	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	469	430	101	16	3	4	26	131	7	15	4	235	289	314	603	79	323	28	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	—	469	418	113	21	3	4	38	94	7	15	4	270	341	364	705	93	335	20	8	317	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	652	606	145	25	9	21	27	158	13	22	10	239	286	414	701	175	287	24	4	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	652	586	167	28	10	24	46	134	13	22	10	285	350	490	840	205	330	21	7	366	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	322	298	63	17	1	4	14	109	5	8	4	211	259	315	574	104	312	34	4	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	—	322	289	70	23	1	5	19	89	5	8	4	242	297	381	677	138	327	28	6	297	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	317	287	66	15	3	14	23	90	7	16	1	230	303	449	752	220	284	28	7	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	317	275	79	21	4	17	32	74	7	16	1	287	372	578	950	291	337	23	10	409	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	636	599	132	30	7	15	29	228	6	15	8	220	263	369	632	149	329	36	5	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	636	579	151	37	6	18	48	186	6	15	8	261	323	439	762	178	355	29	8	336	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	440	396	85	20	4	11	30	135	8	14	8	215	283	369	652	154	291	31	7	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	440	382	98	24	4	15	43	113	8	14	8	257	343	458	801	202	322	26	10	350	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	157	143	26	3	1	1	10	52	3	3	0	182	253	238	491	56	264	33	6	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	469	433	101	16	3	4	26	131	7	15	4	233	289	312	601	79	316	28	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	652	607	145	25	9	21	27	158	13	22	10	239	286	414	700	175	280	24	4	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	322	300	63	17	1	4	14	109	5	8	4	210	259	313	572	103	301	34	4	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	317	284	66	15	3	14	23	90	7	16	1	232	303	454	757	222	282	28	7	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	636	596	132	30	7	15	29	228	6	15	8	221	263	371	634	149	325	36	5	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	440	399	85	20	4	11	30	135	8	14	8	213	283	366	649	153	283	31	7	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	317	284	66	15	3	14	23	90	7	16	1	232	303	454	757	222	282	28	7	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	636	596	132	30	7	15	29	228	6	15	8	221	263	371	634	149	325	36	5	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	440	399	85	20	4	11	30	135	8	14	8	213	283	366	649	153	283	31	7	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	KC	45%	380	349	82	17	3	14	23	119	5	22	4	234	291	417	708	183	310	31	6	311	97	-1	+3	-4	+1	+8	0.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	26	MLB CTX	KC	45%	112	102	24	5	1	4	7	35	2	6	1	230	288	406	693	175	307	31	6	305	97	-0	+1	-1	+0	+2	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	KC	56%	558	511	119	24	4	20	34	173	8	32	6	233	291	414	705	181	308	31	6	310	96	-3	+4	-6	+2	+12	1.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	KC	62%	546	500	116	24	4	19	34	168	7	28	5	232	291	409	699	177	305	31	6	308	95	-4	+4	-6	+2	+12	0.8
2030	29	MLB MLE	KC	63%	536	490	113	23	4	18	34	164	7	24	4	230	289	402	691	172	303	31	6	305	92	-5	+3	-7	+2	+12	0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	KC	63%	525	480	109	22	3	17	33	160	7	20	4	227	286	394	680	167	299	30	6	301	90	-6	+2	-8	+2	+11	0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	KC	56%	312	286	66	14	3	10	19	97	4	18	3	230	288	402	691	173	305	31	6	304	96	-1	+2	-3	+1	+7	0.6
2029	28	MLB CTX	KC	62%	337	308	71	15	3	11	21	104	5	17	3	228	287	397	685	169	303	31	6	302	95	-2	+2	-4	+1	+7	0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	KC	63%	336	308	69	14	3	10	21	103	4	15	3	226	286	391	677	165	300	31	6	299	92	-3	+2	-4	+1	+7	0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	KC	63%	333	305	68	14	2	10	21	102	4	13	2	224	283	383	666	159	297	31	6	295	90	-4	+2	-5	+1	+7	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1403	1290	292	59	12	45	83	436	18	63	11	226	283	395	678	169	302	31	6	299	82	-13	+8	-20	+9	+30	1.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	598	136	27	6	21	38	202	8	29	5	227	283	398	681	171	303	31	6	299	82	-6	+4	-9	+4	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	5408	4967	1129	230	45	153	309	1646	82	211	57	227	284	384	668	157	305	30	6	290	82	-21	+15	-34	+12	+54	2.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	135	28	5	18	37	198	10	25	7	226	283	380	663	154	304	30	6	290	82	-5	+4	-9	+3	+14	0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Nate McLouthlast yr '14 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,737 PA	5.6	3,737	101	133	247	332	410	-2	-53	11.0	11.9
/162	664	18	24	-0.3	-9.4	2.0	pk7: 13
#2Alejandro De Azalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,819 PA	4.2	2,819	51	89	259	325	396	-6	-12	7.0	7.2
/162	664	12	21	-1.4	-2.8	1.7	pk7: 7
#3John Shelby'81-'91 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,326 PA	5.0	3,326	70	98	237*	281*	385*	+1	-4	1.7	3.8
/162	664	14	20	+0.1	-0.9	0.3	pk7: 6
#4Gerald Williams'92-'05 * career totals — 10 seasons, 3,323 PA	5.0	3,323	85	106	242*	287*	395*	-18	+7	1.9	3.6
/162	664	17	21	-3.5	+1.4	0.4	pk7: 5
#5Danny Santanalast yr '21 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,834 PA	2.8	1,834	47	74	256	296	415	-6	-6	3.6	3.6
/162	664	17	27	-2.3	-2.2	1.3	pk7: 4
#6Ed Stroud'66-'71 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,500 PA	2.3	1,500	14	72	245*	312*	375*	-6	-0	2.5	2.5
/162	664	6	32	-2.7	-0.2	1.1	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.3	1,500	53	70	232	285	410	-13	-16	2.3	2.3
/162	664	23	31	-6.0	-7.0	1.0	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matthew Lugo (OGILVIE)	26	45	55	50	35	232/289/413	182	310	9	14	31%	6%	97	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Justin Maxwell 2010 · MLB	26	44→45	50→60	60	45	222/296/378	156	307	18	31	32%	8%	91	+0.6	221/301/390	169	320	20	25	35%	10%	95	+1.0	222/296/434	212	299	27	17	34%	9%	103	+0.7
✕Michael A. Taylor 2018 · MLB	27	47→54	52→55	54→60	39	238/283/402	164	321	20	24	32%	6%	91	+0.6	226/279/379	153	315	15	24	31%	7%	84	+0.1	240/297/382	142	309	19	14	28%	7%	92	+0.6
✕Pedro León 2024 · AAA	26	44→49	49→50	52→55	44	214/300/365	151	312	16	24	35%	9%	89	+0.5	231/293/383	152	327	18	25	33%	7%	91	+0.6	233/290/381	148	333	19	29	34%	6%	86	+0.2
✕Cade Marlowe 2023 · AAA	26	46→55	53→55	57→60	42	231/298/404	172	324	20	25	34%	8%	97	+1.1	221/290/356	135	324	14	34	33%	8%	82	+0.0	229/295/350	122	329	10	40	31%	8%	82	-0.0
✕Terry Evans 2008 · AAA	26	49→54	50→55	53→55	37	245/288/401	156	331	18	22	31%	5%	93	+0.8	230/273/375	145	317	16	21	31%	5%	80	-0.1	216/258/354	138	291	15	21	31%	5%	69	-0.7
✕Samad Taylor 2023 · AAA	25	48→58	49→50	58→65	43	237/301/382	145	322	17	33	31%	7%	93	+0.8	243/315/357	114	332	10	40	27%	9%	92	+0.7	253/319/358	105	339	9	36	26%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Estevan Florial 2024 · MLB	26	46→56	51→50	55→60	43	225/293/388	163	328	18	28	35%	8%	91	+0.7	211/283/359	148	320	17	26	36%	9%	81	-0.1	167/249/295	128	257	15	36	39%	9%	53	-1.2
✕Dylan Moore 2021 · MLB	28	46→49	53→55	52→65	46	236/317/419	183	295	20	26	26%	8%	108	+1.9	215/315/386	171	285	19	31	30%	10%	100	+1.3	207/326/378	171	283	16	41	30%	12%	103	+0.8
✕Jake Marisnick 2018 · MLB	27	43→53	54→60	50→55	41	227/285/403	176	294	22	21	31%	6%	93	+0.8	235/293/426	191	311	23	16	31%	6%	101	+1.4	223/283/403	181	301	21	16	32%	6%	92	+0.4
✕Jose Siri 2022 · MLB	27	51→56	50→60	57→55	35	242/287/400	159	364	18	26	37%	5%	92	+0.7	226/277/425	199	312	26	21	35%	6%	95	+0.9	209/265/413	203	278	29	19	35%	6%	88	+0.3
●Tyler Fitzgerald 2024 · MLB	26	44→54	50→55	59→55	39	221/280/379	159	308	18	22	33%	6%	84	+0.2	237/297/402	165	322	19	19	31%	6%	96	+1.0	233/296/398	166	316	20	18	31%	6%	95	+0.6
✕Josh Lowe 2024 · MLB	26	54→57	53→55	60	43	263/316/444	181	352	19	30	30%	7%	113	+2.3	236/292/396	160	315	18	27	30%	7%	93	+0.8	218/279/368	151	289	18	26	30%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Drew Stubbs 2011 · MLB	26	50→57	47→50	59→60	47	244/312/386	141	323	15	32	28%	8%	98	+1.2	233/302/360	127	321	14	30	30%	9%	88	+0.5	233/301/372	139	331	14	24	32%	8%	90	+0.4
✕Keon Broxton 2018 · MLB	28	48→52	53→55	60	44	230/306/408	177	343	20	33	36%	9%	101	+1.4	198/269/339	141	335	17	29	42%	8%	72	-0.7	157/231/263	106	293	14	30	48%	8%	39	-1.6
✕Reggie Abercrombie 2008 · MLB	27	46→49	50→55	61→60	35	231/274/391	160	309	17	34	31%	4%	85	+0.2	220/254/349	129	328	14	28	36%	3%	68	-1.0	214/257/341	127	316	15	25	36%	3%	65	-0.8
✕Jake Slaughter 2024 · AAA	27	42→48	50	52→55	41	216/288/371	154	291	19	22	32%	7%	86	+0.3	227/291/355	128	317	14	19	31%	7%	83	+0.1	229/290/335	106	327	11	21	31%	6%	74	-0.5
✕Brewer Hicklen 2022 · AA	26	43→50	48→50	60	40	213/284/354	141	321	17	33	37%	8%	80	-0.1	198/278/353	155	303	18	33	38%	8%	79	-0.2	207/283/355	147	290	18	38	33%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Joey Wiemer 2023 · AAA	24	44	52→55	56→55	42	224/289/391	167	304	20	23	32%	7%	91	+0.7	205/279/337	132	284	14	17	31%	8%	75	-0.5	188/270/304	117	259	13	16	31%	9%	63	-0.9
✕Blake Dunn 2024 · AA	25	53→55	50→45	62→60	44	256/342/412	156	350	18	36	30%	8%	116	+2.5	232/311/337	105	327	10	27	30%	8%	86	+0.3	227/306/311	84	322	7	26	29%	8%	76	-0.3
✕Tyler Greene 2010 · MLB	26	45→50	47→50	58→55	39	227/280/361	134	302	15	24	30%	5%	80	-0.2	235/298/376	141	316	15	23	29%	7%	91	+0.6	233/298/380	148	312	15	24	29%	7%	90	+0.4

Matthew Lugo

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps