Riley Cornelio
P
Rochester Red Wings
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 195 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.9 · 2027
ERA4.72
FIP4.72
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.4%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%9.6%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2027
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 22 | 22 | 92 | 434 | 86 | 49 | 4 | 14.7% | 13.3% | 1.3% | 4.68 | 4.26 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 26 | 26 | 126 | 564 | 114 | 64 | 15 | 15.6% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 5.56 | 5.21 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 27 | 26 | 134 | 544 | 135 | 55 | 11 | 20.3% | 11.1% | 2.4% | 3.28 | 4.12 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 3 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 30.5% | 14.1% | 4.2% | 2.70 | 4.64 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | WSH | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 41 | 22 | 6 | 20.4% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.72 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 61 | 255 | 59 | 29 | 8 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.28 | 4.70 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 123 | 520 | 107 | 54 | 15 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 4.68 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 107 | 54 | 15 | 20.6% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.67 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 120 | 509 | 105 | 52 | 15 | 20.5% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.70 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 117 | 494 | 101 | 51 | 15 | 20.4% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.75 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 113 | 476 | 96 | 50 | 15 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.78 | 4.82 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 91 | 48 | 15 | 19.9% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.86 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 103 | 437 | 85 | 47 | 14 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.95 | 5.01 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 80 | 45 | 14 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 5.05 | 5.12 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 93 | 391 | 74 | 44 | 14 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 5.16 | 5.24 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 67 | 42 | 13 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 3.6% | 5.29 | 5.37 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 78 | 77 | 366 | 1594 | 278 | 199 | 39 | 17.4% | 12.5% | 2.5% | 4.40 | 4.56 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 42 | 200 | 870 | 152 | 109 | 21 | 17.4% | 12.5% | 2.5% | 4.40 | 4.56 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Riley Cornelio (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 20.4% | 10.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.68 | 20.6% | 10.2% | 367 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.93 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 299 | 92 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 88 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 87 |
| Keagan Gillies R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.00 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .306 | 3.65 | 20.1% | 13.5% | 54 | -0.35 | 2.94 | 157 | 86 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2028 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 86 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 86 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 85 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 85 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.83 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .289 | 4.21 | 24.7% | 12.1% | 62 | +0.38 | 3.83 | 181 | 85 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.47 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | -0.13 | 3.16 | 254 | 84 |
| Matt Wivinis R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.83 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 1.5% | .262 | 5.90 | 14.5% | 6.2% | 17 | +2.07 | 1.61 | 124 | 84 |
| Justin Courtney R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.14 | 16.8% | 12.8% | 3.3% | .331 | 8.65 | 18.4% | 7.1% | 21 | +3.51 | 4.59 | 108 | 84 |
| Jake Barrett R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.13 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 4.1% | .267 | 2.91 | 26.9% | 15.2% | 69 | -2.22 | 1.48 | 230 | 83 |
| Guido Knudson R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.70 | 17.5% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 106 | 83 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .310 | 4.30 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | -0.02 | 3.45 | 161 | 83 |
| Donovan Benoit R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.65 | 18.2% | 12.1% | 2.8% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 183 | 83 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.78 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.33 | 2.65 | 315 | 83 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 83 |
| Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .293 | 4.50 | 12.8% | -1.5% | 34 | -0.43 | 1.27 | 164 | 83 |
| Bud Jeter R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.94 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .268 | 3.12 | 15.8% | 5.0% | 20 | -0.82 | 3.12 | 226 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $6M | $17M | +$11M | ||