Riley Cornelio

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+WSH	26	26	126	5.56	4.36	20.2%	11.3%	—	K 15.6% · BB 13.0% · FIP 5.23
2025	25	MIX3 levels	27	26	134	3.28	3.38	24.8%	10.1%	—	K 20.2% · BB 10.8% · FIP 4.10
2026	26	MIX2 levels	40	12	103	3.68	3.28	32.9%	13.3%	1.6	K 29.6% · BB 12.6% · FIP 3.57
2027PROJ	27	MLBWSH	7	7	40	4.33	4.38	27.7%	13.3%	0.5
2028PROJ80% MLB	28	MLBWSH	10	10	57	4.40	4.45	27.0%	12.9%	0.6
2029PROJ83% MLB	29	MLBWSH	9	9	55	4.51	4.60	26.1%	12.8%	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo78

K%65

xwOBA vs56

Form1.62 ERA (proj 4.33) · K 31.2% (proj 27.7%) · BB 14.1% (proj 13.3%) ▲ last 60d · 17 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 2.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 90%

CompsErik Hiljus (age 28) · Ricky Castro (age 24) · Tony Gonsolin (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.33

FIP4.38

K%27.7%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%14.4%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7896.5

Whiff%

p9034.5%

p6525.0%

xwOBA vs

p560.306

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	22	92	434	86	49	4	100%	4.2	14.7%	13.3%	1.3%	1.3%	4.68	4.27	—
2023	23	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	22	92	434	86	49	4	100%	4.2	19.8%	11.3%	8.5%	0.9%	4.68	3.39	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	26	126	564	114	64	15	100%	4.9	15.6%	13.0%	2.5%	3.3%	5.56	5.23	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	26	126	564	114	64	15	100%	4.9	15.6%	13.0%	2.5%	3.3%	5.56	5.23	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	26	126	564	114	64	15	100%	4.9	20.2%	11.3%	8.9%	2.7%	5.56	4.36	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	134	544	135	55	11	96%	5.0	20.2%	10.8%	9.4%	2.4%	3.28	4.10	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	134	544	135	55	11	96%	5.0	20.2%	10.8%	9.4%	2.4%	3.28	4.10	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	26	134	544	135	55	11	96%	5.0	24.8%	10.1%	14.7%	2.0%	3.28	3.38	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	12	103	435	143	58	10	30%	2.6	29.6%	12.6%	16.9%	2.5%	3.68	3.57	+1.2
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	12	103	435	143	58	10	30%	2.6	29.6%	12.6%	16.9%	2.5%	3.68	3.57	+1.2
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	12	103	435	143	58	10	30%	2.6	32.9%	13.3%	19.5%	2.3%	3.68	3.28	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			18	3	37	160	40	28	2	17%	2.0	25.0%	17.5%	7.5%	1.2%	3.68	3.92	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	WSH	7	7	40	169	47	23	5	100%	5.7	27.7%	13.3%	14.4%	2.8%	4.33	4.38	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	71	301	81	39	9	100%	5.9	27.0%	12.9%	14.1%	2.9%	4.40	4.45	+0.8
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	66	279	73	36	9	100%	6.0	26.1%	12.8%	13.3%	3.1%	4.51	4.60	+0.6
2030	30	MLB MLE	WSH	9	9	56	234	59	30	8	100%	6.2	25.2%	12.8%	12.4%	3.3%	4.67	4.79	+0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	57	241	65	31	7	100%	5.7	27.0%	12.9%	14.1%	2.9%	4.40	4.45	+0.6
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	55	232	61	30	7	100%	6.1	26.1%	12.8%	13.3%	3.1%	4.51	4.60	+0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	48	203	51	26	7	100%	6.0	25.2%	12.8%	12.4%	3.3%	4.67	4.79	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	30	196	834	216	114	23	67%	4.4	25.9%	13.7%	12.2%	2.7%	4.36	4.16	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		45	30	200	850	220	116	23	66%	4.4	25.9%	13.7%	12.2%	2.7%	4.36	4.16	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		115	86	456	1977	390	245	48	75%	4.0	19.7%	12.4%	7.3%	2.4%	4.29	4.34	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	38	200	868	171	108	21	75%	4.0	19.7%	12.4%	7.3%	2.4%	4.29	4.34	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 66 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.38 (+0.46)K% 37.5% → 32.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.45%	—	×0.860	32.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.91%	—	×0.900	9.82%
HR / BF /BF	2.91%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.20%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 66 IPFIP 3.12 → 3.76 (+0.65)K% 22.6% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.57%	—	×0.810	18.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.12%	—	×1.100	11.13%
HR / BF /BF	1.17%	÷0.963	×1.200	1.45%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 3.12 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 35 IPFIP 4.26 → 4.78 (+0.51)K% 25.5% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.50%	—	×0.860	21.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.72%	—	×0.900	7.85%
HR / BF /BF	4.03%	÷0.960	×1.100	4.62%

Result: FIP 4.26 → 4.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 33 IPFIP 2.98 → 3.98 (+1.00)K% 28.3% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.26%	—	×0.770	21.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.59%	—	×1.150	13.33%
HR / BF /BF	1.45%	÷0.967	×1.250	1.87%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 2.98 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 126 IPFIP 4.29 → 5.23 (+0.94)K% 20.2% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.21%	—	×0.770	15.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.35%	—	×1.150	13.05%
HR / BF /BF	2.66%	÷1.016	×1.250	3.27%

Result: FIP 4.29 → 5.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 92 IPFIP 3.36 → 4.27 (+0.90)K% 19.8% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.82%	—	×0.740	14.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.29%	—	×1.180	13.32%
HR / BF /BF	0.92%	÷0.917	×1.300	1.31%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 3.36 → 4.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Riley Cornelio (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.60	26.2%	13.3%	193	+0.22	—	—	—
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	69
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	68
Tony Gonsolin R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	27	SP	4.37	27.2%	14.2%	3.2%	.250	3.92	21.7%	13.9%	233	-0.45	2.00	704	67
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	67
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	65
José De León R 2019 · 3.24 FIP	26	SP-	3.24	28.9%	12.8%	1.8%	.314	3.60	35.0%	22.1%	30	+0.36	3.24	445	65
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	64
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	64
Ben Casparius R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	23.7%	11.5%	1.9%	.268	3.66	20.6%	12.2%	88	+0.06	3.36	374	63
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	63
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	62
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	62
J.P. France R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	27	SW	4.44	24.9%	10.9%	3.8%	.301	4.47	18.6%	9.0%	205	+0.03	4.04	577	62
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	61
Tylor Megill R 2022 · 3.70 FIP	27	SP-	3.70	25.5%	6.5%	3.5%	.302	3.88	22.8%	12.8%	359	+0.18	3.02	603	61
Connor Grey R 2021 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	22.1%	8.1%	2.8%	.286	4.37	16.2%	7.0%	104	+0.55	2.70	461	60
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	60
TJ Shook R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	26	SW	4.15	23.7%	8.7%	3.5%	.317	3.92	20.0%	11.1%	107	-0.23	3.35	452	59
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	59
Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP	3.42	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.07	23.9%	12.1%	153	+0.65	3.42	223	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	57	26.3%	13.6%	1.09	4.37
Kyle Barraclough ('23)	1.4	56	28.2%	13.9%	0.99	3.86
Chad Fox ('09)	1.1	57	25.8%	13.2%	0.87	3.79
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*