Riley Cornelio — OGILVIE

Riley Cornelio P Rochester Red Wings

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION92 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

K%22.7%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%10.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 97 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL2045

CMD4040

K†4550

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7896.5

Whiff%

p9034.0%

p5623.3%

xwOBA vs

p550.307

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	22	92	434	86	49	4	100%	4.2	14.7%	13.3%	1.3%	1.3%	4.68	4.27	—
2023	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	22	92	434	86	49	4	100%	4.2	14.7%	13.3%	1.3%	1.3%	4.68	4.27	—
2023	23	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	22	22	92	434	86	49	4	100%	4.2	19.8%	11.3%	8.5%	0.9%	4.68	3.39	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	26	126	564	114	64	15	100%	4.9	15.6%	13.0%	2.5%	3.3%	5.56	5.23	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	26	126	564	114	64	15	100%	4.9	15.6%	13.0%	2.5%	3.3%	5.56	5.23	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	26	126	564	114	64	15	100%	4.9	20.2%	11.3%	8.9%	2.7%	5.56	4.36	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	134	544	135	55	11	96%	5.0	20.0%	10.8%	9.2%	2.4%	3.28	4.11	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	134	544	135	55	11	96%	5.0	20.0%	10.8%	9.2%	2.4%	3.28	4.11	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	26	134	544	135	55	11	96%	5.0	24.8%	10.1%	14.7%	2.0%	3.28	3.38	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			13	1	26	116	27	20	2	8%	2.0	23.3%	17.2%	6.0%	1.7%	5.26	4.35	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	35	10	92	391	130	50	10	29%	2.6	28.8%	12.0%	16.7%	2.8%	4.12	3.71	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	35	10	92	391	130	50	10	29%	2.6	28.8%	12.0%	16.7%	2.8%	4.12	3.71	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	WSH	22	9	66	275	103	30	8	41%	3.0	37.5%	10.9%	26.5%	2.9%	3.68	2.92	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	WSH	13	1	26	116	27	20	2	8%	2.0	23.3%	17.2%	6.0%	1.7%	5.26	4.26	+0.1
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	WSH	13	1	26	116	27	20	2	8%	2.0	23.3%	17.2%	6.0%	1.7%	5.26	4.26	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	23	5	3	1	0%	1.1	22.7%	12.5%	10.2%	2.9%	4.36	4.36	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	WSH	5	0	5	21	5	3	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	12.5%	10.2%	2.9%	4.36	4.36	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	97	414	135	53	11	—	—	32.7%	12.8%	19.9%	2.6%	4.14	3.75	+1.3
FULL	26	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	31	131	135	53	11	—	—	103.1%	40.3%	62.8%	8.1%	12.92	3.96	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	26	26	156	659	136	87	18	100%	6.0	20.6%	13.2%	7.4%	2.8%	4.92	4.93	-0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	26	26	156	659	136	85	19	100%	6.0	20.6%	13.0%	7.7%	2.9%	4.93	4.97	-0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	25	25	149	629	129	81	19	100%	6.0	20.5%	12.9%	7.5%	3.0%	4.99	5.06	-0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	WSH	23	23	140	592	119	77	19	100%	6.1	20.2%	13.1%	7.1%	3.2%	5.12	5.22	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	WSH	25	25	148	625	129	83	17	100%	5.9	20.6%	13.2%	7.4%	2.8%	4.92	4.93	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	25	25	148	625	129	81	18	100%	5.9	20.6%	13.0%	7.7%	2.9%	4.93	4.97	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	24	24	142	600	123	78	18	100%	5.9	20.5%	12.9%	7.5%	3.0%	4.99	5.06	-0.3
2030	30	MLB CTX	WSH	22	22	133	562	113	74	18	100%	6.0	20.2%	13.1%	7.1%	3.2%	5.12	5.22	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		113	96	602	2550	526	338	75	85%	5.3	20.6%	13.2%	7.4%	2.9%	4.99	4.64	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	32	200	847	175	112	25	85%	5.3	20.6%	13.2%	7.4%	2.9%	4.99	4.64	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		110	84	445	1933	372	237	48	76%	4.0	19.3%	12.3%	7.0%	2.5%	4.39	4.39	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	38	200	869	168	107	22	76%	4.0	19.3%	12.3%	7.0%	2.5%	4.39	4.39	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Riley Cornelio (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.04	19.4%	12.6%	2.9%	—	4.99	20.6%	7.5%	461	-0.05	—	—	—
Rafael Montero R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	22.0%	11.2%	2.2%	.339	3.41	28.7%	22.8%	47	-0.47	2.43	670	81
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	75
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	74
Luis Santos R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	19.7%	9.7%	3.8%	.262	3.93	22.1%	13.0%	127	-0.83	3.53	472	74
Bryce Jarvis R 2023 · 4.18 FIP	25	SP-	4.18	18.9%	10.3%	2.5%	.281	5.02	16.6%	6.0%	224	+0.84	4.18	533	72
Carson Seymour R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP-	3.96	19.8%	10.2%	2.3%	.292	4.55	18.9%	9.6%	348	+0.59	3.39	572	72
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	70
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	70
Bryce Conley R 2021 · 4.31 FIP	26	SW	4.31	17.9%	12.2%	2.2%	.285	4.22	16.4%	5.3%	48	-0.09	4.22	560	69
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	69
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	69
Tyler Cravy R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP-	3.94	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.305	4.61	18.6%	7.8%	138	+0.67	3.94	276	69
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	69
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	69
Osvaldo Bido R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SP-	5.11	21.2%	13.3%	3.9%	.281	4.30	20.9%	11.8%	322	-0.81	3.70	732	68
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	68
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	68
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	68
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	68
Bubba Derby R 2019 · 5.42 FIP	25	SP-	5.42	18.0%	10.1%	4.7%	.287	5.14	19.4%	11.0%	71	-0.28	3.68	550	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	151	20.3%	13.0%	1.15	5.00
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97