Riley Cornelio
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 195 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 142 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
K%21.6%
BB%12.5%
K-BB%9.1%
ROS IP142
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 206 IP
Grades · Statcast · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7496.2
Whiff%
p9031.9%
K%
p2819.0%
xwOBA vs
p390.325
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 22 | 22 | 92 | 434 | 86 | 49 | 4 | 100% | 4.2 | 14.7% | 13.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 4.68 | 4.34 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 22 | 22 | 92 | 434 | 86 | 49 | 4 | 100% | 4.2 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 0.9% | 4.68 | 3.39 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 26 | 26 | 126 | 564 | 114 | 64 | 15 | 100% | 4.9 | 15.6% | 13.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.56 | 5.21 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 26 | 26 | 126 | 564 | 114 | 64 | 15 | 100% | 4.9 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 5.56 | 4.36 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 26 | 134 | 544 | 135 | 55 | 11 | 96% | 5.0 | 20.3% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 3.28 | 4.18 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 26 | 134 | 544 | 135 | 55 | 11 | 96% | 5.0 | 24.8% | 10.1% | 14.7% | 2.0% | 3.28 | 3.38 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 20 | 9 | 64 | 280 | 88 | 38 | 8 | 45% | 3.2 | 28.2% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 5.06 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | WSH | 135 | 0 | 142 | 598 | 129 | 75 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +1.5 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | WSH | 135 | 0 | 142 | 600 | 129 | 75 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +1.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 206 | 878 | 217 | 113 | 26 | — | — | 24.7% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.67 | 4.40 | +2.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 154 | 651 | 217 | 113 | 26 | — | — | 33.3% | 17.3% | 16.0% | 4.0% | 6.22 | 4.65 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 25 | 152 | 642 | 128 | 82 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.9% | 12.8% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 4.98 | 5.00 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 25 | 147 | 622 | 124 | 78 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.9% | 12.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 4.99 | 5.03 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 23 | 23 | 141 | 594 | 118 | 75 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.8% | 12.6% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 5.05 | 5.12 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 121 | 78 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.9% | 12.8% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 4.98 | 5.00 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 23 | 23 | 140 | 591 | 118 | 74 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.9% | 12.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 4.99 | 5.03 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 134 | 566 | 112 | 71 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.8% | 12.6% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 5.05 | 5.12 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 211 | 70 | 572 | 2427 | 492 | 310 | 72 | 33% | 2.7 | 20.3% | 12.8% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 4.94 | 4.63 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 74 | 24 | 200 | 848 | 172 | 108 | 25 | 33% | 2.7 | 20.3% | 12.8% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 4.94 | 4.63 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 95 | 83 | 417 | 1822 | 341 | 231 | 47 | 87% | 4.4 | 18.7% | 12.7% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 4.55 | 4.54 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 40 | 200 | 874 | 163 | 111 | 22 | 87% | 4.4 | 18.7% | 12.7% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 4.55 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Riley Cornelio (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.98 | 19.8% | 12.3% | 3.0% | — | 5.05 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 440 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Connor Noland R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.97 | 17.5% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .303 | 5.51 | 12.7% | 2.9% | 48 | +1.54 | 3.78 | 423 | 78 |
| Rafael Montero R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .339 | 3.46 | 28.7% | 22.8% | 47 | -0.39 | 2.38 | 663 | 76 |
| Kevin Abel R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.47 | 17.8% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.41 | 17.8% | 2.5% | 82 | +0.94 | 4.41 | 421 | 76 |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.73 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.97 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.76 | 3.16 | 308 | 75 |
| Aaron Davenport R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 3.5% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 498 | 75 |
| Tyler Cravy R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.08 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 2.3% | .305 | 4.72 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 138 | +0.64 | 4.01 | 276 | 74 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 74 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 74 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.46 | 16.4% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .254 | 3.50 | 14.6% | 4.7% | 67 | -1.96 | 3.50 | 395 | 73 |
| Scarlyn Reyes R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.59 | 13.9% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .321 | 4.87 | 13.7% | 5.3% | 70 | +0.28 | 4.39 | 317 | 73 |
| Chi Chi González R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.76 | 16.7% | 10.5% | 3.2% | .302 | 4.41 | 15.3% | 7.8% | 225 | -0.35 | 4.00 | 800 | 71 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2025 · 5.94 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.94 | 20.6% | 13.0% | 5.3% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 358 | 71 |
| David Lebron R 2025 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 71 |
| Brad Peacock R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 71 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.25 | 14.4% | 9.5% | 4.0% | .344 | 5.06 | 12.9% | 4.7% | 173 | -0.19 | 4.25 | 412 | 71 |
| Carlos Pimentel R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.14 | 16.1% | 9.7% | 2.1% | .339 | 4.53 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 13 | +0.39 | 4.14 | 301 | 71 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.96 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 4.2% | .262 | 3.81 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 127 | -1.15 | 3.50 | 472 | 71 |
| Nate Long R 2029 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 71 |
| Luke Irvine R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 104 | 71 |
| Brannon Easterling R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.25 | 12.7% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 334 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 149 | 19.9% | 12.6% | 1.15 | 5.00 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |