Mike Burrows — OGILVIE

Mike Burrows P Houston Astros

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs MLB peak 1.0 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 96 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 103

ERA4.40

FIP4.52

K%20.5%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%12.7%

ROS IP96

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 108 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5795.0

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p1917.7%

xwOBA vs

p300.335

CH+1.1 (27%)

SI (14%)

CU (14%)

SL-1.3 (16%)

FB-4.6 (42%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	GCL Pirates	4	3	14	51	9	4	0	75%	3.5	12.0%	9.8%	2.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.33	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	GCL Pirates	4	3	14	51	9	4	0	75%	3.5	17.6%	7.8%	9.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.67	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	13	13	49	193	66	20	3	100%	3.8	26.3%	11.9%	14.4%	1.6%	2.20	3.25	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	13	13	49	193	66	20	3	100%	3.8	34.2%	10.4%	23.8%	1.6%	2.20	2.43	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	94	393	111	31	8	92%	3.9	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	2.2%	4.01	3.41	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	94	393	111	31	8	92%	3.9	28.2%	7.9%	20.4%	2.0%	4.01	2.83	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	2	2	7	25	3	2	2	100%	3.3	12.0%	8.0%	4.0%	8.0%	2.70	7.49	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	2	2	7	25	3	2	2	100%	3.3	12.0%	8.0%	4.0%	8.0%	2.70	7.49	—
2023	23	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	2	2	7	25	3	2	2	100%	3.3	12.0%	8.0%	4.0%	8.0%	2.70	7.00	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	15	55	249	61	27	12	88%	3.2	22.1%	8.0%	14.1%	5.0%	5.10	5.00	-0.1
2024	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	15	55	249	61	27	12	88%	3.2	22.1%	8.0%	14.1%	5.0%	5.10	5.00	-0.1
2024	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	17	15	55	249	61	27	12	88%	3.2	24.5%	10.8%	13.7%	4.8%	5.10	5.20	-0.2
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	26	128	532	138	41	19	84%	4.1	24.6%	7.5%	17.1%	4.0%	3.58	4.16	+1.1
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	26	128	532	138	41	19	84%	4.1	24.6%	7.5%	17.1%	4.0%	3.58	4.16	+1.1
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	26	128	532	138	41	19	84%	4.1	25.9%	7.7%	18.2%	3.6%	3.58	3.83	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			42	36	194	839	174	68	35	86%	4.6	20.7%	8.1%	12.6%	4.2%	4.92	4.70	+0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	21	20	108	480	90	40	23	95%	5.1	18.2%	8.2%	10.0%	5.0%	5.50	5.32	-0.5
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	21	20	108	480	90	40	23	95%	5.1	18.2%	8.2%	10.0%	5.0%	5.50	5.32	-0.5
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	HOU	3	3	13	57	15	5	2	100%	4.4	26.3%	8.8%	17.5%	3.5%	2.02	3.91	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	HOU	18	17	95	423	75	35	21	94%	5.3	17.7%	8.3%	9.5%	5.0%	5.99	5.38	-0.5
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	HOU	18	17	95	423	75	35	21	94%	5.3	17.7%	8.3%	9.5%	5.0%	5.99	5.38	-0.5
ROS	26	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.5%	7.8%	12.7%	3.9%	4.40	4.52	—
ROS	26	MLB CTX	HOU	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.5%	7.8%	12.7%	3.9%	4.40	4.52	—
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	108	480	90	40	23	—	—	18.8%	8.3%	10.4%	4.8%	5.50	5.32	-0.5
FULL	26	MLB A+C	HOU	—	—	95	400	90	40	23	—	—	22.5%	10.0%	12.5%	5.8%	6.27	5.62	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	HOU	20	20	118	497	103	40	22	100%	5.9	20.8%	8.0%	12.8%	4.3%	5.05	5.12	-0.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	HOU	20	20	118	497	103	40	22	100%	5.9	20.6%	8.1%	12.5%	4.4%	5.14	5.20	-0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	HOU	19	19	112	475	95	40	22	100%	5.9	20.1%	8.3%	11.7%	4.6%	5.27	5.36	-0.6
2030	30	MLB MLE	HOU	18	18	106	447	86	39	21	100%	5.9	19.4%	8.6%	10.7%	4.8%	5.45	5.57	-0.8
2027	27	MLB CTX	HOU	19	19	112	473	98	38	21	100%	5.9	20.8%	8.0%	12.8%	4.3%	5.05	5.12	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	HOU	19	19	112	473	98	38	21	100%	5.9	20.6%	8.1%	12.5%	4.4%	5.14	5.20	-0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	HOU	18	18	107	452	91	38	21	100%	5.9	20.1%	8.3%	11.7%	4.6%	5.27	5.36	-0.6
2030	30	MLB CTX	HOU	17	17	101	426	83	37	20	100%	5.9	19.4%	8.6%	10.7%	4.8%	5.45	5.57	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		114	108	625	2660	542	218	118	95%	5.5	20.4%	8.2%	12.2%	4.4%	5.13	4.84	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	35	200	851	173	70	38	95%	5.5	20.4%	8.2%	12.2%	4.4%	5.13	4.84	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		112	101	455	1923	426	163	71	90%	4.1	22.2%	8.5%	13.7%	3.7%	4.04	4.34	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	44	200	845	187	72	31	90%	4.1	22.2%	8.5%	13.7%	3.7%	4.04	4.34	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mike Burrows (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	25.1%	7.4%	3.7%	—	5.22	20.5%	12.4%	348	+0.88	—	—	—
Caleb Kilian R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	15.4%	6.2%	3.8%	.290	3.57	21.4%	13.2%	105	-1.09	2.42	444	78
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	77
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	77
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	76
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	76
Connor McCullough R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	21.8%	6.4%	4.7%	.280	4.09	19.9%	12.5%	148	-0.57	3.68	261	76
Griffin Canning R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP	5.21	22.4%	10.1%	5.0%	.295	4.55	21.1%	13.3%	299	-0.66	3.60	801	76
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	75
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	75
Griffin Jax R 2021 · 5.20 FIP	26	SP	5.20	18.2%	8.5%	4.7%	.261	2.44	28.8%	22.9%	209	-2.76	1.63	738	75
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	75
Brady Feigl R 2021 · 5.26 FIP	25	SP	5.26	19.4%	9.6%	4.7%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	257	74
Josh DeGraaf R 2018 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	17.2%	7.1%	3.6%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	320	74
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	74
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	74
Spencer Howard R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	26	SP	4.69	22.2%	9.3%	4.2%	.314	5.00	25.1%	16.4%	112	+0.31	2.33	484	74
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	74
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	74
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	74
David Hale R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	16.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.343	4.11	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.04	3.30	493	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	108	21.0%	8.1%	1.70	5.06
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Domingo Germán ('24)	2.6	88	24.4%	7.4%	1.65	4.58
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38