Mike Burrows
P
Houston Astros
+1.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.0 · 2026
ERA4.21
FIP4.39
xFIP4.25
SIERA4.10
K%24.4%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%16.3%
IP96
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2026
K†6060
FB Velo
p5795.0
Whiff%
p6127.0%
K%
p3820.5%
xwOBA vs
p470.315
CH+1.1 (26%)
SI (14%)
CU (15%)
SL-1.3 (16%)
FB-4.6 (42%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Pirates | 4 | 3 | 14 | 51 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 12.0% | 9.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.33 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 13 | 13 | 49 | 193 | 66 | 20 | 3 | 26.3% | 11.9% | 1.5% | 2.20 | 3.24 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 24 | 22 | 94 | 393 | 111 | 31 | 8 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 2.2% | 4.01 | 3.39 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 2 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 2.70 | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 17 | 15 | 55 | 249 | 61 | 27 | 12 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 5.1% | 5.10 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 31 | 26 | 128 | 532 | 138 | 41 | 19 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 3.58 | 4.06 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 4 | 4 | 22 | 103 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 17.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 6.55 | 5.15 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 71 | 25 | 12 | 22.8% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 4.13 | 4.29 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 96 | 415 | 89 | 32 | 17 | 21.5% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 4.68 | 4.48 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 18 | 18 | 99 | 419 | 95 | 33 | 16 | 22.6% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 4.63 | 4.70 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 95 | 33 | 16 | 22.6% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 4.69 | 4.72 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 18 | 18 | 98 | 412 | 91 | 33 | 16 | 22.1% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 4.75 | 4.80 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 17 | 17 | 95 | 400 | 86 | 32 | 16 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 4.83 | 4.89 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 17 | 17 | 91 | 386 | 81 | 32 | 16 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 4.93 | 4.99 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 88 | 370 | 75 | 31 | 15 | 20.3% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 5.04 | 5.11 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 15 | 15 | 84 | 354 | 70 | 30 | 15 | 19.7% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 5.16 | 5.24 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 80 | 336 | 71 | 27 | 15 | 21.0% | 7.9% | 4.4% | 5.13 | 5.11 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 75 | 317 | 64 | 26 | 14 | 20.2% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 5.21 | 5.26 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 58 | 25 | 14 | 19.5% | 8.4% | 4.6% | 5.34 | 5.42 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 95 | 85 | 369 | 1546 | 362 | 135 | 52 | 23.4% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 3.76 | 4.06 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 46 | 200 | 838 | 196 | 73 | 28 | 23.4% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 3.76 | 4.06 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mike Burrows (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 25.2% | 8.1% | 3.7% | — | 4.74 | 22.4% | 14.5% | 297 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.69 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.8% | .290 | 3.66 | 18.0% | 9.7% | 57 | -1.03 | 2.39 | 396 | 84 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 84 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.10 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 4.2% | .263 | 4.13 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.97 | 3.03 | 406 | 83 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 83 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 82 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.48 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 197 | 82 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 82 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.34 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.45 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 55 | -0.89 | 3.45 | 274 | 82 |
| Sam Highfill R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 81 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 81 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 81 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 81 |
| Dustin Beggs R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.37 | 15.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .329 | 5.09 | 11.3% | 3.6% | 48 | +0.72 | 3.42 | 407 | 80 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 12.6% | 7.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 4.44 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 312 | -0.22 | 3.99 | 748 | 80 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.54 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.56 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.98 | 2.84 | 484 | 80 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 80 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 79 |
| Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 79 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .285 | 5.94 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.20 | 4.42 | 239 | 79 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.28 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 270 | 79 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2031
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.0 | $8M | +$7M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $7M | $18M | +$11M | ||