Mike Burrows
P
Houston Astros
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
MLB
peak 1.0 · 2026
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION95 act + 63 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 107
ERA4.62
FIP4.75
K%20.3%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%12.3%
ROS IP63
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 158 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5795.0
Whiff%
p2421.6%
K%
p1917.7%
xwOBA vs
p290.336
CH+1.1 (27%)
SI (14%)
CU (14%)
SL-1.3 (16%)
FB-4.6 (42%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Pirates | 4 | 3 | 14 | 51 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 75% | 3.5 | 12.0% | 9.8% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.33 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Pirates | 4 | 3 | 14 | 51 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 75% | 3.5 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.67 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 13 | 13 | 49 | 193 | 66 | 20 | 3 | 100% | 3.8 | 26.3% | 11.9% | 14.4% | 1.3% | 2.20 | 3.11 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 13 | 13 | 49 | 193 | 66 | 20 | 3 | 100% | 3.8 | 34.2% | 10.4% | 23.8% | 1.6% | 2.20 | 2.43 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 22 | 94 | 393 | 111 | 31 | 8 | 92% | 3.9 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 15.1% | 2.1% | 4.01 | 3.36 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 22 | 94 | 393 | 111 | 31 | 8 | 92% | 3.9 | 28.2% | 7.9% | 20.4% | 2.0% | 4.01 | 2.83 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 2 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 3.3 | 12.0% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 8.0% | 2.70 | 7.49 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 2 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 3.3 | 12.0% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 8.0% | 2.70 | 7.00 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 17 | 15 | 55 | 249 | 61 | 27 | 12 | 88% | 3.2 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 5.6% | 5.10 | 5.36 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 17 | 15 | 55 | 249 | 61 | 27 | 12 | 88% | 3.2 | 24.5% | 10.8% | 13.7% | 4.8% | 5.10 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 26 | 128 | 532 | 138 | 41 | 19 | 84% | 4.1 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 17.2% | 4.0% | 3.58 | 4.15 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 26 | 128 | 532 | 138 | 41 | 19 | 84% | 4.1 | 25.9% | 7.7% | 18.2% | 3.6% | 3.58 | 3.83 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 18 | 17 | 95 | 423 | 75 | 35 | 21 | 94% | 5.3 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 5.0% | 5.99 | 5.38 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 54 | 21 | 11 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.3% | 8.0% | 12.3% | 4.3% | 4.62 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 54 | 21 | 11 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.3% | 8.0% | 12.3% | 4.3% | 4.62 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 158 | 689 | 129 | 56 | 32 | — | — | 18.7% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 4.7% | 5.44 | 5.12 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 158 | 666 | 129 | 56 | 32 | — | — | 19.4% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 4.9% | 5.44 | 5.20 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 99 | 416 | 87 | 34 | 18 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.9% | 8.1% | 12.8% | 4.3% | 5.06 | 5.12 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 99 | 416 | 87 | 34 | 18 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.8% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 4.4% | 5.15 | 5.21 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 94 | 398 | 80 | 34 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 4.6% | 5.28 | 5.37 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 94 | 397 | 83 | 32 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 8.1% | 12.8% | 4.3% | 5.06 | 5.12 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 94 | 397 | 83 | 33 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.8% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 4.4% | 5.15 | 5.21 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 15 | 15 | 89 | 376 | 76 | 32 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 4.6% | 5.28 | 5.37 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 99 | 93 | 534 | 2274 | 469 | 186 | 98 | 94% | 5.4 | 20.6% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 4.3% | 5.01 | 4.77 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 35 | 200 | 852 | 176 | 70 | 37 | 94% | 5.4 | 20.6% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 4.3% | 5.01 | 4.77 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 109 | 98 | 442 | 1866 | 419 | 163 | 69 | 90% | 4.1 | 22.5% | 8.7% | 13.7% | 3.7% | 4.10 | 4.34 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 44 | 200 | 845 | 190 | 74 | 31 | 90% | 4.1 | 22.5% | 8.7% | 13.7% | 3.7% | 4.10 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mike Burrows (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 25.4% | 7.7% | 3.7% | — | 5.23 | 20.6% | 12.4% | 291 | +0.88 | — | — | — |
| Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.78 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.9% | .290 | 3.57 | 22.0% | 13.2% | 95 | -1.21 | 2.38 | 434 | 79 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 77 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 77 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 77 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 76 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 76 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 75 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 75 |
| Griffin Jax R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.17 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 4.6% | .261 | 2.44 | 28.8% | 22.9% | 209 | -2.73 | 1.62 | 709 | 75 |
| Hunter Dobbins R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.33 | 17.6% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 463 | 75 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 74 |
| Josh DeGraaf R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.58 | 17.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 320 | 74 |
| Griffin Canning R 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.37 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 5.2% | .295 | 4.67 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 299 | -0.70 | 3.70 | 776 | 74 |
| Mat Latos R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 73 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 73 |
| Enderson Franco R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.30 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 5.0% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 617 | 73 |
| Garrett Burhenn R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.21 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 3.1% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 433 | 73 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 73 |
| Ivan Pineyro R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.57 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 3.8% | .356 | 4.38 | 13.4% | 5.2% | 45 | -0.19 | 3.55 | 422 | 73 |
| Christian Scott R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.64 | 24.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | .249 | 3.95 | 27.5% | 17.8% | 68 | -0.69 | 2.65 | 302 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 95 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.66 | 4.94 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Domingo Germán ('24) | 6 | 88 | 24.4% | 7.4% | 1.65 | 4.58 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Aníbal Sánchez ('22) | 7 | 120 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 1.56 | 4.80 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |