Mike Burrows

P Houston Astros

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPIL-6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX4 levels	17	15	55	5.10	5.20	24.5%	10.8%	0.1	K 22.9% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.93
2025	25	MIX2 levels	31	26	128	3.58	3.83	25.9%	7.7%	2.4	K 24.9% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.15
2026	26	MIX2 levels	22	21	110	5.40	5.24	18.8%	8.2%	0.2	K 18.3% · BB 8.1% · FIP 5.24
2027PROJ	27	MLBHOU	8	8	47	4.83	4.91	21.6%	7.7%	0.3
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBHOU	12	12	69	4.93	4.99	21.4%	7.9%	0.3
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBHOU	10	10	59	5.07	5.16	20.9%	8.1%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo57

xwOBA vs30

K%19

CompsBrian Edgington (age 25) · Matt Andriese (age 27) · Joaquín Benoit (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 108

ERA4.83

FIP4.91

K%21.6%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%13.9%

Proj IP47

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5795.0

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p1917.7%

xwOBA vs

p300.335

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	GCL Pirates	4	3	14	51	9	4	0	75%	3.5	12.0%	9.8%	2.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.33	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	GCL Pirates	4	3	14	51	9	4	0	75%	3.5	17.6%	7.8%	9.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.67	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	13	13	49	193	66	20	3	100%	3.8	26.3%	11.9%	14.4%	1.6%	2.20	3.25	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	13	13	49	193	66	20	3	100%	3.8	34.2%	10.4%	23.8%	1.6%	2.20	2.43	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	94	393	111	31	8	92%	3.9	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	2.2%	4.01	3.41	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	94	393	111	31	8	92%	3.9	28.2%	7.9%	20.4%	2.0%	4.01	2.83	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	2	2	7	25	3	2	2	100%	3.3	12.0%	8.0%	4.0%	8.0%	2.70	7.49	—
2023	23	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	2	2	7	25	3	2	2	100%	3.3	12.0%	8.0%	4.0%	8.0%	2.70	7.00	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	15	55	249	61	27	12	88%	3.2	22.9%	8.0%	14.9%	5.0%	5.10	4.93	+0.3
2024	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	15	55	249	61	27	12	88%	3.2	22.9%	8.0%	14.9%	5.0%	5.10	4.93	+0.3
2024	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	17	15	55	249	61	27	12	88%	3.2	24.5%	10.8%	13.7%	4.8%	5.10	5.20	+0.1
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	26	128	532	138	41	19	84%	4.1	24.9%	7.5%	17.4%	4.0%	3.58	4.15	+1.9
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	26	128	532	138	41	19	84%	4.1	24.9%	7.5%	17.4%	4.0%	3.58	4.15	+1.9
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	26	128	532	138	41	19	84%	4.1	25.9%	7.7%	18.2%	3.6%	3.58	3.83	+2.4
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	110	490	92	40	23	95%	5.0	18.3%	8.1%	10.2%	4.9%	5.40	5.24	+0.2
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	110	490	92	40	23	95%	5.0	18.3%	8.1%	10.2%	4.9%	5.40	5.24	+0.2
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	110	490	92	40	23	95%	5.0	18.8%	8.2%	10.6%	4.7%	5.40	5.24	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			42	36	194	839	174	68	35	86%	4.6	20.7%	8.1%	12.6%	4.2%	4.92	4.70	+1.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	HOU	8	8	47	198	43	15	8	100%	5.9	21.6%	7.7%	13.9%	4.1%	4.83	4.91	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	72	306	66	24	13	100%	6.0	21.4%	7.9%	13.6%	4.2%	4.93	4.99	+0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	62	263	55	21	12	100%	6.2	20.9%	8.1%	12.8%	4.4%	5.07	5.16	+0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	HOU	9	9	52	218	44	18	10	100%	5.7	20.2%	8.4%	11.8%	4.6%	5.24	5.36	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	69	291	62	23	12	100%	5.8	21.4%	7.9%	13.6%	4.2%	4.93	4.99	+0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	59	249	52	20	11	100%	5.9	20.9%	8.1%	12.8%	4.4%	5.07	5.16	+0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	49	207	42	17	9	100%	6.1	20.2%	8.4%	11.8%	4.6%	5.24	5.36	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		72	66	371	1587	330	129	68	92%	5.2	20.8%	8.1%	12.7%	4.3%	4.99	4.71	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	35	200	855	178	70	37	92%	5.2	20.8%	8.1%	12.7%	4.3%	4.99	4.71	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		113	102	457	1933	432	163	71	90%	4.0	22.3%	8.4%	13.9%	3.7%	4.02	4.31	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	45	200	846	189	71	31	90%	4.0	22.3%	8.4%	13.9%	3.7%	4.02	4.31	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 15 IPFIP 3.54 → 3.91 (+0.37)K% 25.4% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.37%	—	×0.860	21.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.46%	—	×0.900	6.72%
HR / BF /BF	2.99%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.28%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.54 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 32 IPFIP 4.04 → 4.82 (+0.78)K% 31.5% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.54%	—	×0.860	27.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.46%	—	×0.900	7.62%
HR / BF /BF	4.62%	÷0.915	×1.100	5.55%

Result: FIP 4.04 → 4.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 38 IPFIP 4.25 → 4.93 (+0.68)K% 26.6% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.63%	—	×0.860	22.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.88%	—	×0.900	7.99%
HR / BF /BF	4.14%	÷0.909	×1.100	5.01%

Result: FIP 4.25 → 4.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ABradenton Marauders · 10 IPFIP 7.52 → 9.59 (+2.07)K% 25.6% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.58%	—	×0.740	18.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.63%	—	×1.180	13.72%
HR / BF /BF	9.30%	÷1.046	×1.300	11.57%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 7.52 → 9.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Pirates · 4 IPFIP 4.20 → 5.10 (+0.90)K% 13.0% → 8.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.04%	—	×0.680	8.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.39%	—	×1.250	21.74%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.921	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 4.20 → 5.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 7 IPFIP 7.49 → 7.55 (+0.06)K% 12.0% → 10.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.00%	—	×0.860	10.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×0.900	7.20%
HR / BF /BF	8.00%	÷1.095	×1.100	8.04%

Result: FIP 7.49 → 7.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAltoona Curve · 52 IPFIP 2.27 → 2.98 (+0.72)K% 32.4% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.39%	—	×0.810	26.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.92%	—	×1.100	9.81%
HR / BF /BF	1.41%	÷1.084	×1.200	1.56%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 2.27 → 2.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 42 IPFIP 3.50 → 3.91 (+0.41)K% 23.3% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.33%	—	×0.880	20.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.050	7.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.013	×1.100	3.02%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 3.50 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mike Burrows (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	21.6%	7.7%	4.1%	—	5.15	20.9%	12.8%	186	+0.24	—	—	—
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	71
Matt Andriese R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	27	SP	4.71	20.3%	7.2%	4.4%	.290	3.99	24.5%	17.5%	181	-0.72	3.08	744	71
Joaquín Benoit R 2004 · 4.49 FIP	27	SP-	4.49	20.8%	6.8%	4.2%	.302	3.31	23.7%	14.5%	249	-1.18	1.99	1,064	70
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	69
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	69
Claudio Vargas R 2005 · 4.98 FIP	27	SP	4.98	16.2%	7.2%	4.3%	.285	4.61	16.6%	9.2%	339	-0.37	3.66	765	69
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	68
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	68
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	68
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	67
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	67
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	67
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	67
Alec Marsh R 2024 · 3.93 FIP	26	SP	3.93	23.4%	7.0%	3.5%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	424	67
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	67
Louis Varland R 2024 · 4.42 FIP	26	SP-	4.42	21.7%	7.2%	4.1%	.329	2.31	28.6%	21.4%	151	-2.11	1.70	689	66
Christian Scott R 2024 · 4.68 FIP	25	SP	4.68	23.9%	6.3%	5.1%	.249	3.48	27.9%	18.7%	124	-1.20	2.56	358	66
Justin Armbruester R 2024 · 5.73 FIP	25	SP	5.73	20.2%	11.1%	5.3%	.289	1.49	27.5%	21.9%	15	-4.24	1.49	373	66
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	66
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	72	20.9%	8.1%	1.65	4.97
Adam Morgan ('21)	1.8	62	20.8%	7.2%	1.58	4.80
Nelson Cruz ('03)	1.7	58	18.2%	7.2%	1.52	5.04
Jorge López ('25)	2.8	70	19.8%	8.8%	1.36	5.31
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
John Boozer ('62-'69, -2 WAR*)	2.0	66	21.1%*	9.0%*	1.46*	5.15*
Keith Atherton ('83-'89, 2 WAR*)	2.8	81	19.9%*	8.7%*	1.39*	4.24*