Jack Neely
P
Iowa Cubs
+0.3
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'8" / 245 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
xFIP3.60
SIERA3.43
K%25.3%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%13.0%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
OFP—45
STUF7070
CTRL5055
CMD5055
K†6565
SL+0.6 (47%)
FB-2.3 (53%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 38 | 0 | 50 | 218 | 87 | 26 | 3 | 28.8% | 14.5% | 1.9% | 3.58 | 3.54 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 42 | 0 | 66 | 259 | 100 | 20 | 8 | 30.1% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 2.17 | 3.72 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 45 | 0 | 56 | 239 | 86 | 20 | 6 | 31.3% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 3.51 | 2.77 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 31 | 0 | 33 | 155 | 43 | 26 | 5 | 24.2% | 19.2% | 2.7% | 5.94 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 40 | 17 | 4 | 28.0% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 39 | 16 | 4 | 27.6% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 38 | 16 | 4 | 27.2% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 37 | 15 | 4 | 26.9% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 31 | — | 31 | 133 | 35 | 15 | 4 | 26.6% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.32 | 4.35 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 34 | 15 | 4 | 26.4% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 29 | — | 29 | 123 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 26.1% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.51 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 158 | 0 | 208 | 877 | 258 | 106 | 23 | 29.4% | 12.1% | 2.6% | 3.46 | 3.59 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 152 | 0 | 200 | 842 | 248 | 102 | 22 | 29.4% | 12.1% | 2.6% | 3.46 | 3.59 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack Neely (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.18 | 28.0% | 11.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.24 | 27.2% | 15.8% | 99 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 3.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.48 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .245 | 4.81 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.33 | 3.04 | 230 | 85 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .299 | 4.62 | 23.6% | 11.9% | 58 | +0.30 | 3.86 | 134 | 83 |
| Peyton Gray R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 82 |
| José Cisnero R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 82 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 80 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 79 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.10 | 25.0% | 10.0% | 1.5% | .289 | 4.77 | 28.3% | 17.6% | 151 | +1.67 | 3.10 | 220 | 79 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 79 |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.36 | 26.6% | 8.0% | 2.7% | .291 | 2.98 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 63 | -0.38 | 2.67 | 178 | 78 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 78 |
| Kyle Keller R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.81 | 28.7% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .293 | 4.72 | 28.0% | 17.8% | 52 | +0.91 | 2.73 | 264 | 77 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.99 | 26.8% | 9.8% | 3.5% | .289 | 3.80 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 66 | -0.19 | 3.11 | 166 | 77 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 77 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.05 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.19 | 3.02 | 363 | 77 |
| Greg Holland R 2029 · 3.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.19 | 25.4% | 13.0% | 1.1% | .316 | 3.45 | 26.4% | 14.2% | 104 | +0.26 | 1.94 | 268 | 77 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 77 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 25.8% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .214 | 3.12 | 25.0% | 15.3% | 55 | -0.77 | 2.59 | 156 | 76 |
| Jon Edwards R 2027 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.39 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .264 | 2.39 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.00 | 2.39 | 132 | 76 |
| Dugan Darnell R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.66 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 4.1% | .302 | 3.31 | 24.5% | 15.5% | 94 | -1.35 | 2.49 | 238 | 76 |
| Matt Barnes R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.47 | 24.7% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .311 | 2.99 | 34.4% | 23.2% | 196 | -0.48 | 2.49 | 495 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.