Jack Neely
P
Iowa Cubs
Age 26
RHP
6'8" / 245 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 96
ERA4.18
FIP4.18
K%29.8%
BB%13.4%
K-BB%16.4%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL+0.6 (47%)
FB-2.3 (53%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 83.3% | 0.0% | 83.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -3.94 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 83.3% | 0.0% | 83.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -1.90 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 50 | 218 | 87 | 26 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.8% | 14.5% | 14.3% | 1.8% | 3.58 | 3.51 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 50 | 218 | 87 | 26 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 39.9% | 11.9% | 28.0% | 1.4% | 3.58 | 1.97 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 66 | 259 | 100 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.6 | 30.1% | 8.8% | 21.3% | 3.6% | 2.17 | 3.67 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 66 | 259 | 100 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.6 | 38.6% | 7.7% | 30.9% | 3.1% | 2.17 | 2.56 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 0 | 56 | 239 | 86 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 31.3% | 9.2% | 22.0% | 2.0% | 3.51 | 2.72 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 0 | 56 | 239 | 86 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 36.0% | 8.4% | 27.6% | 2.5% | 3.51 | 2.50 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 33 | 155 | 43 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 19.2% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 5.94 | 4.85 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 33 | 155 | 43 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.7% | 16.8% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 5.94 | 4.81 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 75 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.8% | 13.4% | 16.4% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 72 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.1% | 13.0% | 16.1% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 69 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.6% | 12.9% | 15.7% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.32 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 31 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.1% | 13.0% | 16.1% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.23 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 43 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.6% | 12.9% | 15.7% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 64 | 0 | 66 | 283 | 81 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.4% | 12.4% | 16.1% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.09 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 0 | 200 | 852 | 244 | 105 | 27 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.4% | 12.4% | 16.1% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 158 | 0 | 208 | 877 | 258 | 106 | 22 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.4% | 12.1% | 17.3% | 2.5% | 3.46 | 3.53 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 152 | 0 | 200 | 842 | 248 | 102 | 21 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.4% | 12.1% | 17.3% | 2.5% | 3.46 | 3.53 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack Neely (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.18 | 29.8% | 13.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.27 | 28.8% | 15.9% | 115 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.52 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .245 | 5.01 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.49 | 3.00 | 246 | 84 |
| Jon Edwards R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.54 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.7% | .264 | 2.30 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.24 | 2.30 | 132 | 82 |
| Peyton Gray R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 80 |
| Tucker Healy R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.02 | 30.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.85 | 16.9% | 5.8% | 67 | +1.83 | 2.85 | 174 | 80 |
| Zach Franklin R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.48 | 29.2% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .265 | 5.47 | 27.4% | 21.2% | 41 | +1.99 | 3.48 | 138 | 79 |
| Kyle Keller R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.66 | 28.7% | 9.4% | 3.3% | .293 | 4.69 | 28.0% | 17.8% | 52 | +1.03 | 2.67 | 296 | 78 |
| James Bourque R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.18 | 25.7% | 13.3% | 2.8% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 312 | 78 |
| Eric Orze R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 28.8% | 12.7% | 3.1% | .261 | 3.34 | 22.7% | 12.8% | 112 | -0.62 | 3.06 | 331 | 78 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.5% | .280 | 4.01 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.02 | 3.07 | 363 | 78 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.57 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .299 | 4.42 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 87 | -0.15 | 3.74 | 163 | 78 |
| Pierce Johnson R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.20 | 27.8% | 11.7% | 1.8% | .374 | 3.75 | 25.0% | 13.7% | 86 | +0.55 | 2.83 | 577 | 78 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.89 | 25.1% | 13.4% | 2.2% | .310 | 4.58 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 79 | +0.69 | 3.89 | 272 | 78 |
| Matt Barnes R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.47 | 24.7% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .311 | 2.91 | 34.4% | 23.2% | 196 | -0.56 | 2.50 | 495 | 77 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 25.8% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .214 | 3.04 | 25.0% | 15.3% | 55 | -0.50 | 2.59 | 156 | 77 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 77 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 76 |
| Jordan Gore R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.24 | 25.8% | 11.9% | 1.5% | .223 | 5.47 | 15.2% | -3.3% | 46 | +2.23 | 3.24 | 113 | 76 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.62 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .291 | 6.27 | 19.1% | -8.3% | 16 | +2.65 | 3.05 | 134 | 76 |
| Greg Holland R 2029 · 3.21 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.21 | 25.4% | 13.0% | 1.1% | .316 | 3.35 | 26.4% | 14.2% | 104 | +0.14 | 1.97 | 268 | 76 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 58 | 29.2% | 13.1% | 1.11 | 4.23 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |