Jack Neely — OGILVIE

Jack Neely P Iowa Cubs

Age 26 RHP 6'8" / 245 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 94

ERA4.07

FIP4.07

K%28.8%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%17.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF7070

CTRL5055

CMD5055

K†6565

SL+0.6 (47%)

FB-2.3 (53%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	2	0	2	6	5	0	0	0%	1.0	83.3%	0.0%	83.3%	0.0%	0.00	-3.94	—
2021	21	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	2	0	2	6	5	0	0	0%	1.0	83.3%	0.0%	83.3%	0.0%	0.00	-1.90	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	50	218	87	26	3	0%	1.3	28.8%	14.5%	14.3%	1.9%	3.58	3.54	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	50	218	87	26	3	0%	1.3	39.9%	11.9%	28.0%	1.4%	3.58	1.97	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	66	259	100	20	8	0%	1.6	30.1%	8.8%	21.3%	3.7%	2.17	3.71	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	66	259	100	20	8	0%	1.6	30.1%	8.8%	21.3%	3.7%	2.17	3.71	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	66	259	100	20	8	0%	1.6	38.6%	7.7%	30.9%	3.1%	2.17	2.56	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	56	239	86	20	6	0%	1.3	30.6%	8.8%	21.8%	2.1%	3.51	2.77	+1.2
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	56	239	86	20	6	0%	1.3	30.6%	8.8%	21.8%	2.1%	3.51	2.77	+1.2
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	0	56	239	86	20	6	0%	1.3	36.0%	8.4%	27.6%	2.5%	3.51	2.50	+1.4
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	33	155	43	26	5	0%	1.1	22.8%	16.5%	6.3%	2.8%	5.94	4.77	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	33	155	43	26	5	0%	1.1	22.8%	16.5%	6.3%	2.8%	5.94	4.77	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	33	155	43	26	5	0%	1.1	27.7%	16.8%	11.0%	3.2%	5.94	4.81	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	0	6	28	7	2	2	0%	1.0	25.0%	7.1%	17.9%	7.1%	9.00	6.10	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	CHC	5	0	5	21	6	2	1	0%	1.0	28.8%	11.5%	17.3%	2.9%	4.07	4.07	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CHC	56	0	59	247	70	28	7	0%	1.0	28.2%	11.3%	16.9%	2.9%	4.12	4.13	+0.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	54	0	57	240	67	27	7	0%	1.1	27.8%	11.3%	16.5%	3.0%	4.19	4.23	+0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	CHC	24	0	25	106	30	12	3	0%	1.0	28.2%	11.3%	16.9%	2.9%	4.12	4.13	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	34	0	36	152	42	17	5	0%	1.1	27.8%	11.3%	16.5%	3.0%	4.19	4.23	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	0	66	283	78	31	10	0%	1.0	27.7%	10.9%	16.8%	3.4%	4.60	4.01	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	852	235	93	30	0%	1.0	27.7%	10.9%	16.8%	3.4%	4.60	4.01	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		158	0	208	877	254	101	23	0%	1.3	29.0%	11.5%	17.5%	2.6%	3.46	3.55	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		152	0	200	842	244	97	22	0%	1.3	29.0%	11.5%	17.5%	2.6%	3.46	3.55	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Neely (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.07	28.8%	11.5%	2.9%	—	4.18	28.0%	16.7%	115	+0.11	—	—	—
Brooks Kriske R 2019 · 3.47 FIP	25	SU	3.47	26.1%	12.2%	1.9%	.245	4.95	28.6%	16.5%	41	+1.48	3.15	246	84
Kyle Keller R 2019 · 3.83 FIP	26	SU	3.83	28.7%	9.4%	3.6%	.293	4.88	28.0%	17.8%	52	+1.05	2.72	296	82
Shane Smith R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	23	SU	3.52	28.1%	10.4%	2.7%	.259	3.59	22.9%	13.1%	284	+0.07	3.01	342	82
Zac Leigh R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	28.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.282	4.58	19.9%	3.7%	131	+0.74	3.70	201	81
Brad Boxberger R 2015 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	27.3%	10.0%	3.4%	.280	4.09	28.5%	17.2%	107	+0.16	3.01	363	81
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	81
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	80
Matt Barnes R 2016 · 3.51 FIP	26	SU	3.51	24.7%	10.5%	2.1%	.311	2.96	34.4%	23.2%	196	-0.55	2.54	495	80
Lucas Wepf R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	27.6%	10.7%	2.7%	.323	3.97	26.2%	13.8%	136	+0.35	2.90	195	79
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	79
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	79
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	78
Maikel Cleto R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	25.8%	12.1%	2.4%	.214	3.13	25.0%	15.3%	55	-0.66	2.59	156	78
Sam Wolff R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	26	SU	3.40	26.6%	8.0%	2.8%	.291	2.98	24.1%	13.3%	63	-0.42	2.66	178	78
Justin Grimm R 2015 · 3.00 FIP	26	SU	3.00	32.8%	12.3%	2.0%	.250	4.17	26.1%	15.2%	157	+1.17	3.00	335	78
James Bourque R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	25.7%	13.3%	2.8%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	312	78
Dany Jiménez R 2019 · 3.39 FIP	25	SU	3.39	30.5%	8.8%	3.2%	.317	3.34	29.6%	17.5%	79	-0.05	3.17	321	78
Pierce Johnson R 2017 · 3.09 FIP	26	SU	3.09	27.8%	11.7%	1.6%	.374	3.71	25.0%	13.7%	86	+0.62	2.75	593	78
Cade Smith R 2023 · 3.44 FIP	24	SU	3.44	29.0%	9.7%	2.9%	.333	1.56	35.2%	28.9%	215	-1.88	1.03	379	78
Lou Trivino R 2018 · 3.54 FIP	26	SU	3.54	27.4%	9.0%	2.9%	.247	3.90	22.4%	11.8%	157	+0.36	2.39	593	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	28.3%	11.4%	1.14	4.13
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Ryan Buchter ('19)	1.1	53	26.7%	10.8%	1.10	2.87
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82