Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 3 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 2.9 | 33.3% | 11.1% | 22.2% | 5.6% | 5.19 | 4.74 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 3 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 2.9 | 33.3% | 11.1% | 22.2% | 5.6% | 5.19 | 4.72 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 11 | 8 | 46 | 186 | 48 | 18 | 1 | 73% | 4.2 | 17.5% | 12.1% | 5.5% | 0.8% | 2.72 | 3.56 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 11 | 8 | 46 | 186 | 48 | 18 | 1 | 73% | 4.2 | 25.8% | 9.7% | 16.1% | 0.5% | 2.72 | 2.47 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 1.69 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | 38 | 0 | 63 | 274 | 80 | 22 | 10 | 0% | 1.7 | 21.6% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 4.4% | 3.84 | 4.91 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | 38 | 0 | 63 | 274 | 80 | 22 | 10 | 0% | 1.7 | 29.2% | 8.0% | 21.2% | 3.6% | 3.84 | 3.67 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 59 | 241 | 93 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.5% | 8.8% | 21.6% | 3.5% | 2.59 | 3.57 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 59 | 241 | 93 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 38.6% | 7.9% | 30.7% | 2.5% | 2.59 | 2.24 | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.7 | 12.5% | 37.5% | -25.0% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 6.79 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.7 | 12.5% | 37.5% | -25.0% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 8.35 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 39 | 1 | 45 | 187 | 73 | 25 | 5 | 3% | 1.1 | 34.4% | 14.0% | 20.3% | 2.5% | 2.22 | 3.37 | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 39 | 1 | 45 | 187 | 73 | 25 | 5 | 3% | 1.1 | 39.0% | 13.4% | 25.7% | 2.7% | 2.22 | 2.97 | — |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 36 | 151 | 38 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 9.7% | 13.8% | 1.4% | 3.22 | 3.14 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 36 | 151 | 38 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 9.3% | 15.9% | 1.3% | 3.22 | 2.88 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 2 | 32 | 134 | 35 | 20 | 5 | 6% | 0.9 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 5.34 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 2 | 32 | 134 | 35 | 20 | 5 | 6% | 0.9 | 26.1% | 14.9% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 5.34 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 50 | 219 | 55 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 14.9% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 4.53 | 5.68 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 50 | 219 | 55 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 14.6% | 10.5% | 4.6% | 4.53 | 5.44 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 60 | 38 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 15.7% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 4.91 | 5.37 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 51 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 53 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 15.5% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 5.25 | 5.55 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 46 | 0 | 48 | 204 | 46 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 15.5% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 5.52 | 5.76 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 41 | 0 | 43 | 183 | 40 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 15.7% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.79 | 6.02 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 50 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 15.5% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 5.25 | 5.55 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 42 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 15.5% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 5.52 | 5.76 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 34 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 15.7% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.79 | 6.02 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 211 | 1 | 216 | 920 | 206 | 136 | 33 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 14.7% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 5.06 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 195 | 1 | 200 | 850 | 190 | 126 | 31 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 14.7% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 5.06 | +0.8 | ||
| Career | — | 255 | 11 | 342 | 1442 | 360 | 169 | 46 | 4% | 1.3 | 25.0% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 3.50 | 4.23 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 149 | 6 | 200 | 842 | 210 | 99 | 27 | 4% | 1.3 | 25.0% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 3.50 | 4.23 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dany Jiménez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.37 | 24.3% | 15.7% | 3.6% | — | 5.76 | 22.5% | 7.0% | 145 | +0.39 | — | — | — |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 76 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 75 |
| Brandon Workman R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.92 | 18.4% | 14.0% | 2.9% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.04 | 269 | 72 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 70 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.23 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .289 | 3.49 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -0.74 | 2.51 | 373 | 69 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 68 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 68 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.49 | 20.5% | 11.5% | 4.9% | .273 | 2.50 | 25.7% | 19.8% | 112 | -2.99 | 2.40 | 617 | 68 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.28 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 4.8% | .362 | 4.22 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 21 | -1.06 | 2.90 | 227 | 66 |
| Rafael Martín R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.79 | 20.5% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .265 | 3.93 | 21.3% | 15.8% | 110 | -0.86 | 2.85 | 227 | 65 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2027 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 65 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.66 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.0% | .280 | 3.59 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.07 | 3.07 | 363 | 65 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.26 | 19.3% | 14.7% | 3.5% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 254 | 65 |
| Tyler Clippard R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.20 | 27.3% | 11.4% | 3.6% | .243 | 3.59 | 28.0% | 21.3% | 157 | -0.61 | 2.49 | 417 | 63 |
| Jeff Manship R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.88 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 114 | 63 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 63 |
| Austin Adams R 2026 · 6.16 FIP | 32 | SU | 6.16 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 6.3% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 162 | 62 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2024 · 4.38 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.38 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 104 | 62 |
| Fredy Quintero R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.42 | 17.2% | 13.7% | 1.9% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 241 | 62 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.76 | 16.6% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 299 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 51 | 23.0% | 15.6% | 1.51 | 5.33 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |