Braydon Fisher — OGILVIE

Braydon Fisher P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 180 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10193vR 85

ERA3.49

FIP3.51

K%26.2%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%16.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4545

CMD6565

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p6828.1%

p6024.1%

xwOBA vs

p520.310

SL+3.6 (49%)

FB+0.8 (19%)

CU (30%)

CT (2%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.756 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Arb-1	$0.7M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.4M
2030	Arb-2	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers	11	9	22	94	19	9	2	82%	2.0	13.7%	12.0%	1.8%	3.0%	2.05	5.09	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers	11	9	22	94	19	9	2	82%	2.0	20.2%	9.6%	10.6%	2.1%	2.05	3.78	—
2021	21	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	23	2	70	324	83	26	8	9%	3.0	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%	3.3%	6.56	4.53	—
2021	21	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	23	2	70	324	83	26	8	9%	3.0	25.6%	8.0%	17.6%	2.5%	6.56	3.33	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	53	234	72	39	3	0%	1.4	23.4%	19.6%	3.7%	1.8%	4.61	4.58	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	53	234	72	39	3	0%	1.4	30.8%	16.7%	14.1%	1.3%	4.61	3.33	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	65	275	90	34	9	2%	1.4	25.4%	14.3%	11.1%	3.8%	2.77	4.86	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	65	275	90	34	9	2%	1.4	25.4%	14.3%	11.1%	3.8%	2.77	4.86	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	65	275	90	34	9	2%	1.4	32.7%	12.4%	20.4%	3.3%	2.77	3.70	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	54	253	77	34	3	0%	1.2	24.9%	13.0%	12.0%	1.3%	5.03	3.35	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	54	253	77	34	3	0%	1.2	24.9%	13.0%	12.0%	1.3%	5.03	3.35	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	54	253	77	34	3	0%	1.2	30.4%	13.4%	17.0%	1.2%	5.03	2.86	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	1	67	269	84	23	4	2%	1.0	29.8%	8.4%	21.5%	1.5%	2.43	2.46	+1.7
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	1	67	269	84	23	4	2%	1.0	29.8%	8.4%	21.5%	1.5%	2.43	2.46	+1.7
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	1	67	269	84	23	4	2%	1.0	31.2%	8.6%	22.7%	1.5%	2.43	2.40	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			123	10	122	496	133	51	12	8%	1.0	26.8%	10.3%	16.5%	2.4%	3.02	3.45	+1.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	71	9	72	294	71	33	8	13%	1.0	24.1%	11.2%	12.9%	2.7%	3.24	3.98	+0.5
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	71	9	72	294	71	33	8	13%	1.0	24.1%	11.2%	12.9%	2.7%	3.24	3.98	+0.5
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	MLB RAW	TOR	71	9	72	294	71	33	8	13%	1.0	24.1%	11.2%	12.9%	2.7%	3.24	3.98	+0.5
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	TOR	71	9	72	294	71	33	8	13%	1.0	24.1%	11.2%	12.9%	2.7%	3.24	3.98	+0.5
ROS	26	MLB MLE	TOR	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	26.2%	10.1%	16.2%	2.5%	3.49	3.51	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	TOR	6	0	6	25	7	3	1	0%	1.0	26.2%	10.1%	16.2%	2.5%	3.49	3.51	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	78	319	77	35	9	—	—	24.3%	11.1%	13.2%	2.7%	3.25	3.94	+0.7
FULL	26	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	78	330	77	35	9	—	—	23.5%	10.8%	12.7%	2.6%	3.25	3.91	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TOR	70	0	73	309	83	31	8	0%	1.0	26.8%	10.1%	16.7%	2.6%	3.89	3.92	+0.6
2028	28	MLB MLE	TOR	68	0	71	300	80	31	8	0%	1.0	26.7%	10.3%	16.4%	2.7%	3.96	4.00	+0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	TOR	65	0	68	287	75	30	8	0%	1.0	26.1%	10.5%	15.6%	2.8%	4.08	4.16	+0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	TOR	61	0	64	269	68	29	8	0%	1.0	25.4%	10.8%	14.6%	3.0%	4.25	4.37	+0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	TOR	67	0	70	296	79	30	8	0%	1.0	26.8%	10.1%	16.7%	2.6%	3.89	3.92	+0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	TOR	65	0	68	287	77	29	8	0%	1.0	26.7%	10.3%	16.4%	2.7%	3.96	4.00	+0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	TOR	62	0	65	274	72	29	8	0%	1.0	26.1%	10.5%	15.6%	2.8%	4.08	4.16	+0.3
2030	30	MLB CTX	TOR	58	0	61	258	65	28	8	0%	1.1	25.4%	10.8%	14.6%	3.0%	4.25	4.37	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		378	10	390	1628	430	169	43	3%	1.0	26.4%	10.4%	16.1%	2.7%	3.71	3.64	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		194	5	200	834	220	87	22	3%	1.0	26.4%	10.4%	16.1%	2.7%	3.71	3.64	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		302	22	402	1743	413	215	43	7%	1.3	23.7%	12.4%	11.3%	2.5%	3.96	4.03	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		150	11	200	866	205	107	22	7%	1.3	23.7%	12.4%	11.3%	2.5%	3.96	4.03	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braydon Fisher (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.47	29.4%	9.1%	2.4%	—	4.02	26.5%	16.2%	212	+0.55	—	—	—
Tyler Kinley R 2017 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	25.0%	10.3%	2.6%	.295	3.82	25.0%	11.7%	140	+0.08	1.58	595	86
Juan Minaya R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	26	SU	3.69	24.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.291	3.63	25.1%	14.5%	132	-0.06	3.20	446	85
Spencer Patton R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	27	SU	3.47	26.8%	9.6%	2.6%	.295	2.79	30.3%	18.1%	57	-0.68	2.79	239	84
Daniel Hudson R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	28	SU	3.35	24.5%	7.9%	2.4%	.302	3.78	22.8%	13.6%	168	+0.43	1.68	468	80
Isaiah Campbell R 2023 · 3.35 FIP	25	SU	3.35	25.5%	9.2%	2.3%	.273	4.07	18.3%	11.8%	126	+0.72	3.31	244	79
Raynel Espinal R 2018 · 2.60 FIP	26	SU	2.60	29.1%	9.1%	1.5%	.313	3.75	21.4%	13.0%	193	+1.15	2.48	507	78
Tommy Kahnle R 2016 · 3.00 FIP	26	SU	3.00	24.9%	12.1%	0.9%	.261	2.59	34.5%	25.9%	172	-0.41	1.53	458	78
Mychal Givens R 2016 · 2.84 FIP	26	SU	2.84	30.7%	10.9%	1.7%	.299	3.27	28.3%	20.0%	218	+0.43	1.77	526	78
Trevor Gott R 2019 · 2.97 FIP	26	SU	2.97	26.6%	7.9%	2.0%	.272	4.64	24.1%	15.6%	99	+1.67	2.71	455	77
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	77
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	77
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	76
Luke Jackson R 2018 · 2.67 FIP	26	SU	2.67	28.5%	10.7%	1.1%	.316	3.26	28.0%	19.3%	163	+0.59	2.67	580	76
Matt Festa R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	21.9%	11.2%	3.6%	.246	4.11	29.9%	23.0%	75	-0.55	2.58	477	76
Justin Anderson R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	26	SU	4.12	27.6%	14.7%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	587	76
Luke Bard R 2017 · 2.87 FIP	26	SU	2.87	28.7%	8.0%	2.1%	.362	4.57	21.8%	13.9%	128	+1.70	2.87	388	76
Alan Busenitz R 2017 · 3.03 FIP	26	SU	3.03	22.7%	7.7%	1.6%	.220	4.37	23.2%	15.7%	65	+1.34	2.92	436	76
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	76
Zac Leigh R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	28.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.282	4.58	19.9%	3.7%	131	+0.74	3.70	201	76
J.B. Wendelken R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	23.2%	8.4%	3.2%	.293	3.55	23.3%	13.1%	122	-0.43	3.08	393	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	70	26.9%	10.1%	1.04	3.91
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33