Braydon Fisher
P
Toronto Blue Jays
+1.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 180 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.9 · 2026
ERA3.29
FIP3.68
xFIP3.13
SIERA2.80
K%27.3%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%17.3%
IP62
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2026
K†6565
SL+3.6 (48%)
FB+0.8 (20%)
CU (25%)
CT (7%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | 11 | 9 | 22 | 94 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 13.7% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 2.05 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 23 | 2 | 70 | 324 | 83 | 26 | 8 | 19.0% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 6.56 | 4.54 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 39 | 0 | 53 | 234 | 72 | 39 | 3 | 23.4% | 19.6% | 1.8% | 4.61 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 46 | 1 | 65 | 275 | 90 | 34 | 9 | 25.4% | 14.3% | 3.7% | 2.77 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 46 | 0 | 54 | 253 | 77 | 34 | 3 | 25.7% | 14.3% | 1.3% | 5.03 | 3.45 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 66 | 1 | 67 | 269 | 84 | 23 | 4 | 30.2% | 8.6% | 1.3% | 2.43 | 2.37 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 8 | 0 | 10 | 33 | 12 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.93 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TOR | 53 | — | 53 | 222 | 62 | 22 | 5 | 27.9% | 10.0% | 2.5% | 3.20 | 3.74 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 62 | 255 | 74 | 23 | 6 | 29.0% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 2.85 | 3.16 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 74 | 25 | 7 | 28.6% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 3.45 | 3.67 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 72 | 24 | 7 | 28.1% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 3.64 | 3.74 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 59 | — | 59 | 251 | 69 | 24 | 7 | 27.4% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 3.78 | 3.85 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 65 | 23 | 7 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 3.88 | 3.95 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 61 | 23 | 7 | 26.2% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 3.98 | 4.05 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 58 | 22 | 7 | 25.6% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 4.09 | 4.17 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 54 | 22 | 6 | 24.9% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 49 | 21 | 6 | 24.2% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 45 | 20 | 6 | 23.4% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 41 | 19 | 6 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 239 | 13 | 340 | 1482 | 357 | 188 | 36 | 24.1% | 12.7% | 2.4% | 4.03 | 3.99 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 141 | 8 | 200 | 873 | 210 | 111 | 21 | 24.1% | 12.7% | 2.4% | 4.03 | 3.99 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Braydon Fisher (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.74 | 27.9% | 10.0% | 2.5% | — | 3.75 | 28.0% | 18.6% | 182 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Kinley R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.72 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .295 | 3.80 | 25.0% | 11.7% | 140 | +0.08 | 1.58 | 544 | 86 |
| Juan Minaya R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.69 | 24.4% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .291 | 3.65 | 25.1% | 14.5% | 132 | -0.04 | 3.19 | 446 | 86 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.48 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.74 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.26 | 1.69 | 468 | 84 |
| Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.49 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .295 | 2.83 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.66 | 2.83 | 239 | 84 |
| Andrew Kittredge R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.09 | 23.1% | 6.6% | 2.0% | .353 | 3.00 | 25.6% | 19.7% | 255 | -0.09 | 2.48 | 642 | 83 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 80 |
| Trevor Gott R 2026 · 2.99 FIP | 26 | SW | 2.99 | 26.6% | 7.9% | 2.1% | .272 | 4.41 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 99 | +1.42 | 2.70 | 421 | 80 |
| Alan Busenitz R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 26 | SW | 2.96 | 22.7% | 7.7% | 1.5% | .220 | 4.14 | 23.2% | 15.7% | 65 | +1.18 | 2.91 | 436 | 80 |
| Wander Suero R 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 2.97 | 22.5% | 6.0% | 1.8% | .289 | 3.28 | 26.2% | 18.8% | 150 | +0.31 | 2.10 | 615 | 80 |
| Luke Bard R 2026 · 2.87 FIP | 26 | SW | 2.87 | 28.7% | 8.0% | 2.1% | .362 | 4.58 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 128 | +1.71 | 2.87 | 388 | 79 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 2.61 FIP | 26 | SW | 2.61 | 29.1% | 9.1% | 1.5% | .313 | 3.79 | 21.4% | 13.0% | 193 | +1.18 | 2.48 | 507 | 79 |
| Jay Jackson R 2027 · 2.37 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.37 | 24.1% | 6.2% | 0.9% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 261 | 79 |
| J.B. Wendelken R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.92 | 23.2% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .293 | 3.50 | 23.3% | 13.1% | 122 | -0.42 | 3.02 | 393 | 78 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 77 |
| Arodys Vizcaíno R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.58 | 27.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .243 | 3.61 | 25.3% | 16.4% | 38 | +0.03 | 2.27 | 183 | 77 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 77 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.24 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 2.93 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 188 | -0.31 | 2.59 | 302 | 77 |
| Simon Castro R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 77 |
| Rowan Wick R 2026 · 2.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 2.50 | 26.5% | 8.0% | 1.1% | .253 | 3.55 | 25.3% | 15.4% | 104 | +1.05 | 2.46 | 361 | 76 |
| Paul Sewald R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.66 | 25.3% | 7.2% | 3.2% | .288 | 3.75 | 23.6% | 16.6% | 192 | +0.09 | 2.72 | 558 | 76 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.756 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $3M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $4M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $6M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $11M | $20M | +$9M | ||