Luinder Avila

P Kansas City Royals

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs MLB ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPIL-6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	20	20	87	4.14	3.36	22.4%	12.4%	—	K 18.6% · BB 13.2% · FIP 4.01
2025	23	MIX3 levels	30	12	73	4.30	3.28	28.1%	10.3%	1.1	K 23.9% · BB 9.3% · FIP 3.73
2026	24	MIX2 levels	25	16	81	5.36	4.48	19.6%	13.7%	0.9	K 19.7% · BB 13.6% · FIP 4.50
2027PROJ	25	MLBKC	5	5	31	4.61	4.66	23.0%	13.2%	0.3
2028PROJ90% MLB	26	MLBKC	6	6	35	4.58	4.59	23.5%	12.8%	0.3
2029PROJ92% MLB	27	MLBKC	5	5	28	4.58	4.60	23.4%	12.6%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo72

K%33

xwOBA vs27

CompsAndrew Politi (age 25) · Sean Mooney (age 24) · Tanner Hall (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.61

FIP4.66

K%23.0%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p4023.9%

p3319.7%

xwOBA vs

p270.339

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	16	ROK MLE	DSL Royals 1	9	2	23	95	20	11	0	22%	2.5	14.3%	14.5%	-0.2%	0.0%	3.18	3.72	—
2018	16	ROK RAW	DSL Royals 1	9	2	23	95	20	11	0	22%	2.5	21.1%	11.6%	9.5%	0.0%	3.18	2.79	—
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals 2	12	2	27	120	22	16	1	17%	2.2	12.5%	16.7%	-4.2%	1.2%	6.41	4.80	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Royals 2	12	2	27	120	22	16	1	17%	2.2	18.3%	13.3%	5.0%	0.8%	6.41	3.74	—
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	10	58	243	51	17	3	71%	4.1	14.9%	8.6%	6.3%	1.7%	4.66	3.87	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	10	58	243	51	17	3	71%	4.1	21.0%	7.0%	14.0%	1.2%	4.66	2.89	—
2022	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	26	26	115	501	97	49	10	100%	4.4	14.3%	11.5%	2.8%	2.3%	4.54	4.60	—
2022	20	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	26	26	115	501	97	49	10	100%	4.4	19.4%	9.8%	9.6%	2.0%	4.54	3.82	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	20	109	472	102	44	3	91%	4.9	16.6%	10.7%	5.9%	0.8%	4.39	3.47	—
2023	21	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	20	109	472	102	44	3	91%	4.9	21.6%	9.3%	12.3%	0.6%	4.39	2.80	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	87	380	85	47	4	100%	4.3	18.6%	13.2%	5.3%	1.5%	4.14	4.01	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	87	380	85	47	4	100%	4.3	18.6%	13.2%	5.3%	1.5%	4.14	4.01	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	87	380	85	47	4	100%	4.3	22.4%	12.4%	10.0%	1.1%	4.14	3.36	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	12	73	310	87	32	7	40%	2.4	23.9%	9.3%	14.6%	2.7%	4.30	3.73	+0.7
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	12	73	310	87	32	7	40%	2.4	23.9%	9.3%	14.6%	2.7%	4.30	3.73	+0.7
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	12	73	310	87	32	7	40%	2.4	28.1%	10.3%	17.7%	2.3%	4.30	3.28	+1.1
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	16	81	357	70	49	8	64%	3.2	19.7%	13.6%	6.1%	2.4%	5.36	4.50	+0.9
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	16	81	357	70	49	8	64%	3.2	19.7%	13.6%	6.1%	2.4%	5.36	4.50	+0.9
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	16	81	357	70	49	8	64%	3.2	19.6%	13.7%	5.9%	2.2%	5.36	4.48	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			34	12	84	365	77	48	7	35%	2.5	21.1%	13.2%	7.9%	1.9%	4.82	4.06	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	KC	5	5	31	131	30	17	3	100%	6.2	23.0%	13.2%	9.8%	2.6%	4.61	4.66	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	7	7	39	166	39	21	4	100%	5.6	23.5%	12.8%	10.7%	2.7%	4.58	4.59	+0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	KC	5	5	30	128	30	16	4	100%	6.0	23.4%	12.6%	10.8%	2.7%	4.58	4.60	+0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	KC	4	4	25	106	25	13	3	100%	6.3	23.3%	12.6%	10.7%	2.9%	4.63	4.67	+0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	KC	3	3	20	84	19	11	3	100%	6.6	22.7%	12.7%	10.0%	3.0%	4.75	4.83	+0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	KC	2	2	15	62	14	8	2	100%	7.3	22.0%	13.0%	9.0%	3.2%	4.92	5.03	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	6	6	35	148	35	19	4	100%	5.8	23.5%	12.8%	10.7%	2.7%	4.58	4.59	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	KC	5	5	28	118	28	15	3	100%	5.6	23.4%	12.6%	10.8%	2.7%	4.58	4.60	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	KC	4	4	23	97	23	12	3	100%	5.8	23.3%	12.6%	10.7%	2.9%	4.63	4.67	+0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	KC	3	3	19	80	18	10	2	100%	6.3	22.7%	12.7%	10.0%	3.0%	4.75	4.83	+0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	KC	2	2	14	59	13	8	2	100%	7.0	22.0%	13.0%	9.0%	3.2%	4.92	5.03	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	32	203	866	193	112	21	59%	3.8	22.3%	12.9%	9.4%	2.5%	4.72	4.20	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		53	31	200	855	190	110	21	59%	3.8	22.3%	12.9%	9.4%	2.5%	4.72	4.20	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		158	108	572	2478	430	291	43	68%	3.6	17.3%	11.7%	5.6%	1.7%	4.58	4.08	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	38	200	866	150	102	15	68%	3.6	17.3%	11.7%	5.6%	1.7%	4.58	4.08	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 11 IPFIP 4.51 → 4.66 (+0.15)K% 18.8% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.75%	—	×0.860	16.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.58%	—	×0.900	13.12%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.29%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.51 → 4.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 53 IPFIP 3.79 → 4.14 (+0.35)K% 26.4% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.41%	—	×0.860	22.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.96%	—	×0.900	8.96%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.003	×1.100	3.32%

Result: FIP 3.79 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 6 IPFIP 1.08 → 2.17 (+1.09)K% 43.5% → 33.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.48%	—	×0.770	33.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.04%	—	×1.150	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.983	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 1.08 → 2.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 83 IPFIP 3.30 → 4.01 (+0.71)K% 22.9% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.91%	—	×0.810	18.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.01%	—	×1.100	13.21%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷0.920	×1.200	1.46%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 3.30 → 4.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 4 IPFIP 4.25 → 4.18 (−0.07)K% 13.6% → 11.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.64%	—	×0.860	11.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.18%	—	×0.900	16.36%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.111	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 4.25 → 4.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 109 IPFIP 2.80 → 3.47 (+0.67)K% 21.6% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.61%	—	×0.770	16.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.32%	—	×1.150	10.72%
HR / BF /BF	0.64%	÷1.033	×1.250	0.77%

Result: FIP 2.80 → 3.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AColumbia Fireflies · 115 IPFIP 3.80 → 4.60 (+0.80)K% 19.4% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.36%	—	×0.740	14.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.78%	—	×1.180	11.54%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷1.140	×1.300	2.28%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).

Result: FIP 3.80 → 4.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Royals Gold · 32 IPFIP 3.69 → 5.03 (+1.34)K% 20.9% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.93%	—	×0.680	14.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.53%	—	×1.250	10.66%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷1.006	×1.400	3.24%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 3.69 → 5.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luinder Avila (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.61	23.4%	10.8%	95	-0.05	—	—	—
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	71
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	70
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	70
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	70
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	70
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.80	22.4%	10.8%	160	+0.03	3.69	326	69
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	69
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	68
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.69	18.9%	3.2%	77	+0.02	3.95	270	68
Anthony Castro R 2019 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	21.5%	16.3%	1.9%	.266	4.32	24.9%	13.0%	76	-0.08	2.83	464	68
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	68
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	68
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	68
Jon Duplantier R 2019 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP-	3.54	22.0%	14.0%	0.9%	.327	5.74	21.8%	8.1%	107	+2.20	3.10	435	68
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	68
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	68
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	68
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	68
Keaton Winn R 2023 · 3.97 FIP	25	SP-	3.97	21.1%	7.2%	3.2%	.310	4.36	19.0%	10.8%	122	+0.39	3.68	457	68
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	36	22.4%	12.9%	0.97	4.70
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Charlie Kerfeld ('85-'90, -0 WAR*)	1.0	50	22.3%*	12.7%*	0.72*	4.84*
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16