Luinder Avila
P
Kansas City Royals
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 195 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 38 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.09
FIP4.25
K%21.9%
BB%12.7%
K-BB%9.2%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 105 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7296.1
Whiff%
p4023.8%
K%
p3620.2%
xwOBA vs
p280.338
SL (22%)
SI (26%)
CU (15%)
CH (10%)
FB-4.3 (53%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 16 | ROK | DSL Royals 1 | 9 | 2 | 23 | 95 | 20 | 11 | 0 | 22% | 2.5 | 14.3% | 14.5% | -0.2% | 0.0% | 3.18 | 3.72 | — |
| 2018 | 16 | ROK | DSL Royals 1 | 9 | 2 | 23 | 95 | 20 | 11 | 0 | 22% | 2.5 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 3.18 | 2.79 | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Royals 2 | 12 | 2 | 27 | 120 | 22 | 16 | 1 | 17% | 2.2 | 12.5% | 16.7% | -4.2% | 1.2% | 6.41 | 4.80 | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Royals 2 | 12 | 2 | 27 | 120 | 22 | 16 | 1 | 17% | 2.2 | 18.3% | 13.3% | 5.0% | 0.8% | 6.41 | 3.74 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 10 | 58 | 243 | 51 | 17 | 3 | 71% | 4.1 | 14.9% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 1.7% | 4.66 | 3.87 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 10 | 58 | 243 | 51 | 17 | 3 | 71% | 4.1 | 21.0% | 7.0% | 14.0% | 1.2% | 4.66 | 2.89 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 26 | 26 | 115 | 501 | 97 | 49 | 10 | 100% | 4.4 | 14.3% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 4.54 | 4.46 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 26 | 26 | 115 | 501 | 97 | 49 | 10 | 100% | 4.4 | 19.4% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 2.0% | 4.54 | 3.82 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 22 | 20 | 109 | 472 | 102 | 44 | 3 | 91% | 4.9 | 16.6% | 10.7% | 5.9% | 0.7% | 4.39 | 3.46 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 22 | 20 | 109 | 472 | 102 | 44 | 3 | 91% | 4.9 | 21.6% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 0.6% | 4.39 | 2.80 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 87 | 380 | 85 | 47 | 4 | 100% | 4.3 | 18.6% | 13.2% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 4.14 | 4.08 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 87 | 380 | 85 | 47 | 4 | 100% | 4.3 | 22.4% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 1.1% | 4.14 | 3.36 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 12 | 73 | 310 | 87 | 32 | 7 | 40% | 2.4 | 24.3% | 10.5% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 3.84 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 12 | 73 | 310 | 87 | 32 | 7 | 40% | 2.4 | 28.1% | 10.3% | 17.7% | 2.3% | 4.30 | 3.28 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 22 | 13 | 67 | 296 | 59 | 41 | 7 | 59% | 3.1 | 20.2% | 13.7% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 4.95 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | KC | 7 | 7 | 38 | 160 | 35 | 20 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.9% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 4.09 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | KC | 7 | 7 | 38 | 160 | 35 | 20 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.9% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 4.09 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | KC | — | — | 105 | 456 | 94 | 61 | 11 | — | — | 20.6% | 13.4% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 4.64 | 4.38 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | KC | — | — | 94 | 399 | 94 | 61 | 11 | — | — | 23.5% | 15.4% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 4.57 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | KC | 16 | 16 | 91 | 385 | 88 | 45 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 2.6% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | KC | 15 | 15 | 91 | 385 | 90 | 44 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.4% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 2.6% | 4.38 | 4.36 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | KC | 15 | 15 | 90 | 379 | 88 | 42 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | KC | 14 | 14 | 87 | 367 | 85 | 41 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.1% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | KC | 15 | 15 | 87 | 367 | 84 | 43 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 2.6% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | KC | 14 | 14 | 87 | 367 | 86 | 42 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.4% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 2.6% | 4.38 | 4.36 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | KC | 14 | 14 | 85 | 359 | 84 | 40 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.3% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | KC | 14 | 14 | 83 | 350 | 81 | 40 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 95 | 73 | 449 | 1903 | 434 | 224 | 48 | 77% | 4.7 | 22.8% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 4.37 | 4.05 | +7.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 33 | 200 | 847 | 193 | 100 | 21 | 77% | 4.7 | 22.8% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 4.37 | 4.05 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 155 | 105 | 559 | 2417 | 420 | 286 | 41 | 68% | 3.6 | 17.4% | 11.8% | 5.5% | 1.7% | 4.51 | 4.06 | +8.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 38 | 200 | 865 | 151 | 103 | 15 | 68% | 3.6 | 17.4% | 11.8% | 5.5% | 1.7% | 4.51 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luinder Avila (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 23.9% | 12.0% | 2.6% | — | 4.39 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 272 | +0.00 | — | — | — |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 75 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 74 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.29 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .316 | 4.60 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +1.31 | 3.29 | 142 | 73 |
| Keith Rogalla R 2025 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.55 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .344 | 3.62 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 65 | +0.07 | 3.00 | 113 | 71 |
| Blair Henley R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .450 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.22 | 3.80 | 187 | 71 |
| Jake Lee R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 71 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 70 |
| Yosver Zulueta R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.20 | 27.1% | 14.0% | 1.1% | .299 | 3.84 | 24.8% | 10.5% | 195 | +0.64 | 3.20 | 314 | 69 |
| Brett Gillis R 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 69 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 68 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.62 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.26 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.36 | 1.21 | 621 | 68 |
| Sean Mooney R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.82 | 24.7% | 13.5% | 3.8% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 102 | 68 |
| Sean Harney R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.51 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 1.3% | .285 | 4.69 | 16.5% | 5.1% | 59 | +1.18 | 3.51 | 123 | 68 |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 68 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 67 |
| Kyle Cody R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.82 | 19.6% | 14.1% | 1.1% | .233 | 4.62 | 19.0% | 11.2% | 107 | +0.80 | 2.81 | 272 | 67 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2028 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 66 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .380 | 4.51 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.25 | 4.50 | 119 | 65 |
| Keagan Gillies R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.41 | 17.2% | 11.3% | 4.2% | .370 | 3.48 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 142 | -1.93 | 2.88 | 157 | 65 |
| Nick Gallagher R 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.78 | 22.0% | 17.9% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.87 | 21.0% | 7.0% | 73 | +0.09 | 4.09 | 196 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 90 | 23.3% | 11.5% | 1.02 | 4.37 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Jimmy Nelson ('21) | 5 | 117 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 0.97 | 4.08 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |