Luinder Avila — OGILVIE

Luinder Avila P Kansas City Royals

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2029 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 90 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 101

ERA4.12

FIP4.27

K%21.1%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP90

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5055

CTRL3045

CMD3540

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p4023.9%

p3319.7%

xwOBA vs

p270.339

SL (22%)

SI (27%)

CU (15%)

CH (10%)

FB-4.3 (53%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	16	ROK MLE	DSL Royals 1	9	2	23	95	20	11	0	22%	2.5	14.3%	14.5%	-0.2%	0.0%	3.18	3.72	—
2018	16	ROK RAW	DSL Royals 1	9	2	23	95	20	11	0	22%	2.5	21.1%	11.6%	9.5%	0.0%	3.18	2.79	—
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals 2	12	2	27	120	22	16	1	17%	2.2	12.5%	16.7%	-4.2%	1.2%	6.41	4.80	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Royals 2	12	2	27	120	22	16	1	17%	2.2	18.3%	13.3%	5.0%	0.8%	6.41	3.74	—
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	10	58	243	51	17	3	71%	4.1	14.9%	8.6%	6.3%	1.7%	4.66	3.87	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	10	58	243	51	17	3	71%	4.1	21.0%	7.0%	14.0%	1.2%	4.66	2.89	—
2022	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	26	26	115	501	97	49	10	100%	4.4	14.3%	11.5%	2.8%	2.3%	4.54	4.60	—
2022	20	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	26	26	115	501	97	49	10	100%	4.4	19.4%	9.8%	9.6%	2.0%	4.54	3.82	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	20	109	472	102	44	3	91%	4.9	16.6%	10.7%	5.9%	0.8%	4.39	3.47	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	20	109	472	102	44	3	91%	4.9	16.6%	10.7%	5.9%	0.8%	4.39	3.47	—
2023	21	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	20	109	472	102	44	3	91%	4.9	21.6%	9.3%	12.3%	0.6%	4.39	2.80	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	87	380	85	47	4	100%	4.3	18.6%	13.2%	5.3%	1.5%	4.14	4.01	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	87	380	85	47	4	100%	4.3	18.6%	13.2%	5.3%	1.5%	4.14	4.01	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	87	380	85	47	4	100%	4.3	22.4%	12.4%	10.0%	1.1%	4.14	3.36	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	12	73	310	87	32	7	40%	2.4	23.2%	9.3%	13.9%	2.7%	4.30	3.79	+0.7
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	12	73	310	87	32	7	40%	2.4	23.2%	9.3%	13.9%	2.7%	4.30	3.79	+0.7
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	12	73	310	87	32	7	40%	2.4	28.1%	10.3%	17.7%	2.3%	4.30	3.28	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			34	12	84	365	77	48	7	35%	2.5	21.1%	13.2%	7.9%	1.9%	4.82	4.06	+0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	25	16	81	357	70	49	8	64%	3.2	19.7%	13.6%	6.1%	2.4%	5.36	4.50	+0.4
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	25	16	81	357	70	49	8	64%	3.2	19.7%	13.6%	6.1%	2.4%	5.36	4.50	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	KC	4	4	11	48	9	7	1	100%	2.7	18.8%	14.6%	4.2%	2.1%	4.22	4.51	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	KC	21	12	70	309	61	42	7	57%	3.3	19.7%	13.6%	6.1%	2.3%	5.53	4.40	+0.4
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	KC	21	12	70	309	61	42	7	57%	3.3	19.7%	13.6%	6.1%	2.3%	5.53	4.40	+0.4
ROS	24	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.1%	12.3%	8.8%	2.5%	4.12	4.27	—
ROS	24	MLB CTX	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.1%	12.3%	8.8%	2.5%	4.12	4.27	—
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	81	357	70	49	8	—	—	19.6%	13.7%	5.9%	2.2%	5.36	4.50	+0.2
FULL	24	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	70	296	70	49	8	—	—	23.7%	16.6%	7.1%	2.7%	6.17	4.69	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	103	435	98	50	11	100%	5.7	22.4%	11.4%	11.0%	2.5%	4.40	4.40	+0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	110	465	107	52	12	100%	6.1	22.9%	11.1%	11.8%	2.5%	4.35	4.33	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	112	475	109	52	12	100%	5.9	22.9%	11.0%	11.9%	2.6%	4.36	4.37	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	112	475	108	53	13	100%	5.9	22.7%	11.1%	11.7%	2.7%	4.41	4.45	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	107	453	100	51	13	100%	6.0	22.1%	11.3%	10.8%	2.9%	4.53	4.61	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	101	426	91	49	13	100%	5.9	21.4%	11.6%	9.8%	3.1%	4.70	4.82	+0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	KC	17	17	98	414	93	47	10	100%	5.8	22.4%	11.4%	11.0%	2.5%	4.40	4.40	+0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	105	443	102	49	11	100%	5.8	22.9%	11.1%	11.8%	2.5%	4.35	4.33	+0.7
2029	27	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	107	452	103	50	12	100%	5.9	22.9%	11.0%	11.9%	2.6%	4.36	4.37	+0.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	107	452	103	50	12	100%	5.9	22.7%	11.1%	11.7%	2.7%	4.41	4.45	+0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	KC	17	17	102	431	95	49	12	100%	6.0	22.1%	11.3%	10.8%	2.9%	4.53	4.61	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	96	405	87	47	12	100%	6.0	21.4%	11.6%	9.8%	3.1%	4.70	4.82	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		137	115	698	2957	659	339	77	84%	5.1	22.3%	11.5%	10.8%	2.6%	4.50	4.10	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	33	200	847	189	97	22	84%	5.1	22.3%	11.5%	10.8%	2.6%	4.50	4.10	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		158	108	572	2478	428	291	43	68%	3.6	17.3%	11.7%	5.5%	1.7%	4.58	4.08	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	38	200	866	150	102	15	68%	3.6	17.3%	11.7%	5.5%	1.7%	4.58	4.08	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luinder Avila (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	23.2%	11.2%	2.6%	—	4.37	22.8%	11.6%	326	+0.02	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	75
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	74
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	74
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	73
Cam Schlittler R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	22	SP	4.80	17.6%	13.8%	2.6%	.330	3.01	27.8%	19.2%	447	-1.79	2.38	488	72
Keith Rogalla R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	23	SP-	3.52	21.2%	11.7%	1.3%	.344	3.68	18.0%	5.9%	65	+0.16	3.10	113	72
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	71
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	71
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	71
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	70
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	69
Yosver Zulueta R 2022 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP-	3.19	27.1%	14.0%	1.1%	.299	3.64	23.5%	11.2%	195	+0.45	3.19	286	68
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	68
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	682	68
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	67
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	67
Darren Bowen R 2023 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP-	3.82	19.0%	12.8%	1.3%	.236	5.41	15.1%	4.2%	223	+1.59	3.82	278	67
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	67
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	67
Kyle Cody R 2020 · 3.79 FIP	25	SP-	3.79	19.6%	14.1%	1.0%	.233	4.60	18.3%	11.4%	107	+0.81	2.77	272	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	104	22.5%	11.2%	1.04	4.43
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98