Luinder Avila — OGILVIE

Luinder Avila P Kansas City Royals

+0.7 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.7 · 2026

ERA3.10

FIP4.31

xFIP4.98

SIERA4.70

K%22.8%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%12.2%

IP76

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2026

K†5555

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p7429.1%

p8528.6%

xwOBA vs

p900.226

SL (23%)

SI (31%)

CU (11%)

CH (9%)

FB-4.3 (56%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2018	16	ROK	DSL Royals 1	9	2	23	95	20	11	0	14.3%	14.5%	0.0%	3.18	3.72	+0.3
2019	17	ROK	DSL Royals 2	12	2	27	120	22	16	1	12.5%	16.7%	1.2%	6.41	4.80	+0.0
2021	19	A	Columbia Fireflies	14	10	58	243	51	17	3	14.9%	8.6%	1.7%	4.66	3.86	+0.7
2022	20	A	Columbia Fireflies	26	26	115	501	97	49	10	14.3%	11.5%	2.3%	4.54	4.64	+0.9
2023	21	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	22	20	109	472	102	44	3	16.6%	10.7%	0.8%	4.39	3.47	+2.3
2024	22	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	20	20	87	380	85	47	4	18.6%	13.2%	1.5%	4.14	4.04	+1.1
2025	23	MLB	Kansas City Royals	30	12	73	310	87	32	7	24.3%	10.5%	2.7%	4.30	3.85	+1.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	MLB	Kansas City Royals	4	3	13	63	12	8	2	—	—	—	7.11	—	—
ROS	24	MLB	KC	13	13	70	296	67	31	8	22.8%	10.6%	2.6%	3.10	4.31	+0.6
2026 Total	24	MLB	KC	—	—	83	359	79	39	10	22.1%	11.0%	2.7%	3.71	3.65	+1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	KC	14	14	77	326	74	33	9	22.6%	10.1%	2.6%	3.84	4.28	+0.7
2028	26	MLB	KC	14	14	77	326	75	32	9	22.9%	10.0%	2.6%	4.10	4.26	+0.7
2029	27	MLB	KC	14	14	76	323	74	32	9	22.9%	10.0%	2.7%	4.21	4.28	+0.7
2030	28	MLB	KC	14	14	75	318	73	32	9	22.9%	10.0%	2.7%	4.26	4.30	+0.7
2031	29	MLB	KC	13	13	74	311	70	31	9	22.4%	10.1%	2.8%	4.33	4.38	+0.6
2032	30	MLB	KC	13	13	72	302	66	31	9	21.9%	10.2%	2.8%	4.41	4.47	+0.5
2033	31	MLB	KC	13	13	69	291	62	30	8	21.3%	10.3%	2.9%	4.51	4.58	+0.4
2034	32	MLB	KC	12	12	66	280	58	29	8	20.7%	10.4%	3.0%	4.62	4.69	+0.2
2035	33	MLB	KC	11	11	63	267	53	28	8	20.0%	10.6%	3.1%	4.74	4.82	+0.1
2036	34	MLB	KC	60	—	60	253	49	27	8	19.3%	10.8%	3.2%	4.87	4.96	-0.0
2037	35	MLB	KC	56	—	56	239	44	26	8	18.6%	11.1%	3.3%	5.01	5.11	-0.1
2038	36	MLB	KC	53	—	53	223	40	25	8	17.8%	11.3%	3.4%	5.17	5.27	-0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			137	95	504	2184	373	254	37	17.1%	11.6%	1.7%	4.52	4.06	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—			54	38	200	867	148	101	15	17.1%	11.6%	1.7%	4.52	4.06	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luinder Avila (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	22.8%	10.6%	2.6%	—	4.27	22.8%	12.8%	231	-0.04	—	—	—
Jay Flaa R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	24	SU	4.69	18.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.306	4.31	21.8%	9.2%	191	-0.38	3.62	273	81
José Ruiz R 2026 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	18.8%	11.5%	2.2%	.345	4.08	24.4%	13.8%	126	-0.11	3.42	459	80
Bobby Wahl R 2026 · 3.68 FIP	24	SU	3.68	24.5%	11.1%	2.3%	.250	2.67	36.7%	26.0%	58	-1.01	2.03	148	78
James Norwood R 2026 · 3.47 FIP	24	SW	3.47	21.8%	11.3%	1.4%	.283	3.58	31.0%	18.8%	102	+0.11	2.27	349	78
R.J. Alvarez R 2026 · 4.87 FIP	24	SW	4.87	23.1%	11.3%	4.2%	.348	3.38	22.4%	10.7%	112	-1.49	3.01	302	78
Chad Smith R 2026 · 4.33 FIP	24	SU	4.33	19.8%	13.5%	2.2%	.274	3.90	25.2%	12.6%	86	-0.43	3.32	258	77
Blair Calvo R 2027 · 3.83 FIP	25	SW	3.83	18.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.320	4.20	23.3%	9.8%	92	+0.37	2.86	181	76
David Morgan R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.2%	10.9%	2.5%	.291	3.37	25.9%	14.5%	47	-0.87	3.37	148	76
Heath Hembree R 2028 · 4.00 FIP	26	SW	4.00	18.4%	7.5%	2.8%	.256	3.93	25.6%	17.6%	173	-0.07	2.67	382	76
Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.74	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.64	4.10	105	76
JT Chargois R 2026 · 3.33 FIP	24	SU	3.33	20.4%	13.4%	0.5%	.289	2.92	23.1%	13.9%	105	-0.41	2.57	362	75
Louis Head R 2027 · 3.84 FIP	25	SW	3.84	18.5%	13.6%	1.1%	.315	3.30	20.3%	11.0%	145	-0.54	2.77	336	75
Luke Barker R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	16.1%	7.3%	2.1%	.318	2.98	22.9%	15.3%	121	-0.87	2.74	261	75
Félix Bautista R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	22.7%	15.2%	2.0%	.299	2.98	33.8%	21.7%	112	-1.23	1.45	334	75
Chris Roycroft R 2027 · 3.69 FIP	25	SU	3.69	19.6%	11.7%	1.4%	.404	4.01	18.8%	6.7%	199	+0.32	3.43	231	75
Ty Buttrey R 2026 · 3.46 FIP	24	SW	3.46	22.1%	12.5%	1.2%	.339	3.03	26.7%	19.5%	163	-0.43	2.43	522	75
Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	20.6%	12.6%	2.8%	.290	4.91	17.8%	11.6%	162	+0.41	4.50	217	75
Emilio Pagán R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	24	SW	3.48	20.8%	9.2%	1.8%	.280	3.78	26.0%	18.4%	209	+0.30	2.59	682	75
Will Vest R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	21.8%	8.5%	2.5%	.282	3.66	20.9%	11.9%	124	-0.05	2.53	421	75
Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	24	SW	3.87	17.8%	9.8%	1.9%	.309	3.25	24.8%	15.5%	104	-0.62	2.78	312	74

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2027

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.7M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.9M
2029	Arb-2	$4M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$6M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$10M		$15M	+$5M