Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 136 | 527 | 165 | 41 | 6 | 96% | 5.4 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 14.6% | 1.7% | 1.39 | 3.16 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 136 | 527 | 165 | 41 | 6 | 96% | 5.4 | 31.3% | 7.8% | 23.5% | 1.1% | 1.39 | 2.15 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 74 | 300 | 77 | 30 | 4 | 100% | 4.6 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 1.9% | 2.55 | 3.89 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 74 | 300 | 77 | 30 | 4 | 100% | 4.6 | 25.7% | 10.0% | 15.7% | 1.3% | 2.55 | 2.94 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 31 | 17 | 80 | 354 | 84 | 48 | 4 | 55% | 2.6 | 22.0% | 14.0% | 8.0% | 0.9% | 4.97 | 3.50 | +1.4 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 31 | 17 | 80 | 354 | 84 | 48 | 4 | 55% | 2.6 | 23.7% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 1.1% | 4.97 | 3.45 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 8 | 7 | 21 | 110 | 17 | 13 | 6 | 88% | 2.6 | 17.1% | 11.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 11.14 | 6.85 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 8 | 7 | 21 | 110 | 17 | 13 | 6 | 88% | 2.6 | 15.5% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 11.14 | 7.05 | -0.6 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 34 | 14 | 94 | 428 | 109 | 57 | 18 | 41% | 2.8 | 22.4% | 14.0% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 4.80 | 5.54 | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 34 | 14 | 94 | 428 | 109 | 57 | 18 | 41% | 2.8 | 25.5% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 4.2% | 4.80 | 5.10 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 3 | 3 | 10 | 44 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 3.2 | 27.3% | 11.4% | 15.9% | 4.5% | 8.38 | 4.73 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 3 | 3 | 10 | 44 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 3.2 | 27.3% | 11.4% | 15.9% | 4.5% | 8.38 | 4.86 | — |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 7 | 56 | 248 | 68 | 40 | 3 | 30% | 2.4 | 24.5% | 18.1% | 6.4% | 1.8% | 4.20 | 4.34 | — |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 7 | 56 | 248 | 68 | 40 | 3 | 30% | 2.4 | 27.4% | 16.1% | 11.3% | 1.2% | 4.20 | 3.51 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 149 | 110 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.6% | 16.8% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 5.15 | 5.36 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 24 | 24 | 143 | 604 | 131 | 98 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 16.3% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 5.34 | 5.53 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 22 | 22 | 130 | 550 | 114 | 89 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.8% | 16.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 5.54 | 5.74 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 49 | 36 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.7% | 16.3% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 5.34 | 5.53 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 37 | 29 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.8% | 16.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 5.54 | 5.74 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 35 | 23 | 144 | 633 | 131 | 90 | 21 | 66% | 4.1 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 5.87 | 4.95 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 32 | 200 | 877 | 182 | 125 | 29 | 65% | 4.1 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 5.87 | 4.95 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 140 | 88 | 470 | 2011 | 451 | 253 | 52 | 63% | 3.4 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 3.78 | 4.22 | +6.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 37 | 200 | 856 | 192 | 108 | 22 | 63% | 3.4 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 3.78 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jon Duplantier (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.36 | 22.6% | 16.8% | 3.0% | — | 5.63 | 21.3% | 5.0% | 273 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Cashner R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.44 | 17.0% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 786 | 64 |
| Junior Guerra R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.44 | 19.4% | 12.8% | 4.3% | .255 | 4.13 | 22.2% | 12.5% | 248 | -1.31 | 3.02 | 646 | 64 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.87 | 15.8% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .260 | 4.11 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 180 | -0.76 | 2.49 | 433 | 59 |
| Josh Zeid R 2024 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 58 |
| Tom Koehler R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.71 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 474 | 56 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.07 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 4.9% | .313 | 4.18 | 21.5% | 14.8% | 424 | -0.89 | 3.49 | 869 | 56 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.15 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.8% | .312 | 5.23 | 17.5% | 7.7% | 369 | +0.08 | 3.69 | 521 | 54 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 14.9% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 577 | 54 |
| Hector Galvan R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.64 | 14.3% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .357 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 406 | 52 |
| Elian Leyva R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 51 |
| Jerome Williams R 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 50 |
| Jason Berken R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.31 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 219 | 50 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.40 | 13.6% | 11.4% | 3.6% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 300 | 49 |
| Nate Long R 2023 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 49 |
| Marco Estrada R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.32 | 18.1% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .213 | 4.55 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 506 | +0.23 | 4.04 | 710 | 47 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2025 · 6.54 FIP | 31 | SP- | 6.54 | 17.2% | 9.2% | 6.8% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 258 | 47 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.00 | 18.4% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 306 | 47 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 47 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.92 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 47 |
| Sam LeCure R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.27 | 16.6% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 171 | 47 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 143 | 21.7% | 16.4% | 1.28 | 5.33 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |